Aaaah....The Perfect Draft. We have all dreamt of having it. Some of us have experienced it. And for those that have....we want it again and again. And why not? You surely did not subscribe to this website to be average. You want to dominate. You want to have such a good roster that others salivate over who you have. You want them all to come to you when discussing trades. And in this article I am going to break down how to have that perfect draft.

Let's start with the two basic principles of Value Based Drafting (VBD) and I will expound on them as we go through this.

ALL PLAYERS HAVE VALUE
Don't love anyone. Don't hate anyone. Get players that will significantly outperform their value and you will build a winning team.

UNDERSTAND WHAT THE AVERAGE GUY THINKS It's this opinion that allows one to maximize draft value round after round. You may believe someone will be the 4th best WR, but if everybody else does not then you need to wait and maximize value.

If you don't follow these principles, you will not have a perfect draft. If you...believe rookie WRs are always bad...always avoid players after ACL injuries...avoid anyone over 30...refuse to ever draft a kicker before the last 3 rounds...always take RBs with your first two picks...on and on....then you will not have the perfect draft. Throw away the biases. Let value guide your team. Let others succumb to prejudices and generalities. You are here to win your league. And you do that by getting value every single round.

So what is value then? Value Based Drafting has shown us that we can compare unlike positions for comparative value. Let this be our guide. I am not going to rehash Joe Bryant's excellent article as many are familiar with it. But suffice it to say it all starts with projections. And these projections can be manipulated to form Top 200 lists. The good news is we have done that work for you at this site

If you want a customized Top 200 list/cheatsheet you can go here

The Top 200 list from which we will be referring to can be found here

Let's have the perfect draft.

The goal is to get you the best possible team and to make sure you don't overpay for players that can still be had a few rounds later. What I looked for were players that we projected significantly better than where they were being drafted. For average draft position, I used a list from Xpertsleagues generated over the last two weeks. I deleleted Ricky Williams and Quincy Carter from consideration. To be ranked, the player or defense had to show up in at least 4 drafts. A similar list is available from Myfantasyleague.com and also Antsports.com. The positional analysis tracks to our projections which also can be found on this site.

This article assumes a 12 team league that starts 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 Def and 1 PK.

Quarterbacks:

Simply put, this is the deepest field of quarterbacks I have ever seen. 17 quarterbacks are "expected" to be drafted in the first 96 picks. The average draft position of the 18th QB is at pick 97 so it is conceivable that half of the teams will have taken their second QB by the end of round 8 (through 96 picks).

Let me repeat that so it sinks in. 18 quarterbacks are expected to be drafted by round 8.

But how many quarterbacks does one really need? Most of the time you only need two QBs. One as the usual starter and another as a safety valve / bye week replacement. Marginal quarterbacks are almost always available on the waiver wire as are the backups that get catapulted into a starter's role due to an injury. So getting back to the question? How many quarterbacks do you need in the perfect draft?

I think you need two. But you definitely do not need two by the eighth round. Considering someone like Carson Palmer is going as the 23rd QB and you should be able to see the value in waiting.

Looking down the list of those "hot" 18 QBs and I see very little value at their average draft position.

With history as our guide, the top QBs are almost always drafted too early. And this makes sense. The QB position generally scores the most points so fantasy players want a good one. But since most leagues only require 1 starting QB there is little pressure on the remaining QBs after the first 5-6 are gone.

So unless you can get exceptional value on the first few QBs (Culpepper, Manning, Vick, McNabb, Hasselbeck), I suggest waiting because value always emerges after most everyone has their starting quarterback.

In fact, I think this is key #1 to winning your league this year. Resist the temptation and do not even think about drafting a QB until round 7. How can I say that with such conviction? Because draft after draft, I have seen the same thing happen. People overpay for the top stars and then a lull takes place before a mad rush ensues in rounds 7 and 8.

At the end of the sixth round, some of the following QBs should still be on the board (ranked by our projected worth):

• Aaron Brooks (ADP = 60, Worth = 56, +4)
• Trent Green (ADP = 59, Worth = 58, +1)
• Jeff Garcia (ADP = 71, Worth = 63, +8)
• Tom Brady (ADP = 67, Worth = 65, +2)

Grab the best one you can. We think they all should be excellent.

And then sit back and enjoy the panic from the other owners as the QBs keep flying off the board. Later in the draft, set your sites on getting one of these quality backups:

• Mark Brunell (Value = 77, ADP = 114) in the 10th round or later.
• Brad Johnson (Value = 88, ADP = 106) in the 10th round or later.
• Josh McCown (Value = 95, ADP = 108) in the 10th round or later.
• Carson Palmer (Value = 107, ADP = 126) in the 11th round or later.
• Tommy Maddox (Value = 115, ADP = 135) in the 12th round or later.
• Tim Rattay (Value = 125, ADP = 146) in the 13th round or later.
• Rich Gannon (Value = 139, ADP = 149) in the 13th round or later.

Again, the general strategy is to wait at QB unless exceptional value presents itself early. No need to panic at this position and just let the draft come to you. There is great value to be had by waiting. Typically after those first 18 QBs are drafted, QBs will come off the board at about 2 per round until all of the starters are taken.

Additionally the following QBs are rarely drafted, but could be homeruns if the starting QB went down to injury:

Jon Kitna (Cin), Gus Frerotte (Min), Tim Couch (GB), Kerry Collins (Oak).

In leagues with deep drafts, taking a flier on one of these with your last pick in the draft could yield outstanding results. Less than half of the QBs in the league play all 16 games each year. The other owners will call you lucky if you hit on one of these players, but the money is still cashed at the record store.

Running Backs:

In most leagues, running backs are golden. Yes they can run and catch, but the real reason they are golden is their simply aren't enough of them to go around. Every owner wants 3-4 quality backs. That equates to 36-48 backs needed to adequately cover bye weeks and exploit matchups. Well folks, there are not that many running backs that will score consistently for your fantasy roster.

This is the reason many successful owners will simply take RBs with their first 2-3 picks regardless of who else is there. I am not advocating blindly taking RBs over people like Moss, Harrison, Holt, Culpepper and Manning. But I am suggesting you get good to great value on non-RB players if you go that direction. We rank Moss at number 9 overall. But truth is you will likely end up with a better roster if you avoid him at pick 9 and draft the highest RB available.

Why is this you ask? Because even though you may "overpay" for a RB in the first or second round, the price for RBs generally increases significantly as the draft goes on. With high demand and no supply, marginal backs will be drafted in the 4th and 5th rounds. Complete reaches with virtually no chance to play (without an injury) will be drafted in the 8th-10th rounds. You want to be ahead of the runs and grab quality even if it represents minimal value.

Here are the only non-RB players I would even consider in the first two rounds (24 picks) of a draft:

• Moss at 13 overall or later.
• Harrison at 17 overall or later.
• Holt at 20 overall or later.

There is a good chance that none of these players will be available at these spots. That is OK, take your two RB studs and position yourself for a strong draft the rest of the way. The reason you need to get exceptional value if you don't take running backs with your first two picks is because you will likely overpay for mediocre RBs later. So getting Harrison at fair value, actually represents negative value to your squad because you will be scrambling to make the RB position work.

Besides taking quality RBs early, I also like these backs in the following rounds:

• Warrick Dunn (Value = 37, ADP = 57) in the 5th round or later.
• Correll Buckhalter (Value = 59, ADP = 80) in the 7th round or later.
• Travis Minor (Value = 64, ADP = 95) in the 8th round or later.
• Jerome Bettis (Value = 134, ADP = 160) in the 13th round or later.
• Mike Alstott (Value = 156, ADP = 216) in 16th round or later.

I also believe the following backups could shine if given the opportunity: Onterrio Smith (Min), Maurice Morris (Sea), Najeh Davenport (GB), Deshaun Foster (Car), Larry Johnson (KC), Steven Jackson (StL) and Julius Jones (Dal). I suggest you target none of these specifically, but look to see if any are still around after the 14th round. Each could represent a homerun if they get to play. Reaching for them in the 8th to 10th rounds will hurt you in other places and is not advised.

Some additional RB strategies involve traditionally strong running teams that potentially have injury risk/RBBC situations. Philadelphia with Westbrook/Buckhalter, Dallas with George/Jones, Pittsburgh with Staley/Bettis, Chicago with Jones/Thomas all represent teams that fit this pattern. This generally lowers the value of both players which can yield value (and protect against injuries) if you draft both.

Wide Receivers:

There almost always is great value at wide receiver late in a draft and this year is no exception. But you will need a few inexpensive stars for any of that late round value to be worthwhile.

As we discussed earlier, unless you get exceptional value on the big 3 wide receivers (Moss, Harrison and Holt), you should pass on these players. Assuming you miss the big three and draft RB in the first two rounds, here are the WRs I believe will have good to great value:

• Koren Robinson (Value = 44, ADP = 55) in the 5th round or later.
• Rod Smith (Value = 53, ADP = 86) in the 7th round or later.
• Brandon Lloyd (Value = 71, ADP = 109) in the 9th round or later.
• Eddie Kennison (Value = 76, ADP = 136) in the 10th round or later.
• Keenan McCardell (Value = 91, ADP = 121) in the 10th round or later.
• Deion Branch (Value = 101, ADP = 143) in the 12th round or later.
• Muhsin Muhammad (Value = 80, ADP = 206) in the 13th round or later.
• Quincy Morgan (Value = 102, ADP = 185) in the 14th round or later.
• Terry Glenn (Value = 110, ADP = 234) in the 14th round or later.
• Johnnie Morton (Value = 123, ADP = 169) in the 14th round or later.
• Dennis Northcutt (Value = 135, ADP = 198) in the 15th round or later.
• Ike Hilliard (Value = 136, ADP = 199) in the 15th round or later.
• Reggie Williams (Value = 144, ADP = 195) in the 16th round or later.
• Robert Ferguson (Value = 147, ADP = 230) in the 16th round or later.

Some other WRs will undoubtedly slip in your drafts besides the above targeted bargain list. So in recap, get one core WR outside of the top 3 and wait for value to emerge. It always does.

Tight Ends:

Three or four tight ends are expected to perform like WRs this year (Tony Gonzalez, Todd Heap, Jeremy Shockey and possibly Kellen Winslow). A quality tight end can be an important piece to your winning team (at the right price). But with Gonzalez and Shockey hurt and Winslow holding out for his huge payday, I suggest you wait on tight ends (Chances are poor that you will get any of the top players at a good price anyway).

It's no surprise that since TEs catch a relatively small amount of passes primarily on short and intermediate routes (again, excluding the top tier guys), there isn't a great deal of variance usually between the 4th best TE and the 12th best, witness:

• 2003 -- 4th (74 points), 12th (65 points) = 9 points difference (0.56 per game)


• 2002 -- 4th (91 points), 12th (63 points) = 28 points difference (1.75 per game)


• 2001 -- 4th (93 points), 12th (75 points) = 18 points difference (1.13 per game)


• 2000 -- 4th (96 points), 12th (61 points) = 34 points difference (2.13 per game)


• 1999 -- 4th (83 points), 12th (60 points) = 23 points difference (1.44 per game)



• 5 YR AVG -- 4th (87 points), 12th (65 points) = 22 points difference (1.38 per game)

So ultimately, once you get past the big three, you're really debating over a point or two per week; which is why it is wise to just wait until the later rounds to select a TE.

In 2002, I told you to wait and get Todd Heap (great). In 2003, I targeted Stephen Alexander (bust), Freddie Jones (great) and Desmond Clark (average).

My pick for value TEs of the year are:

• Daniel Graham (Value = 104, ADP = 145) in the 12th round or later.
• Marcus Pollard (Value = 142, ADP = 191) in the 15th round or later.

Because quality TEs can usually be had on the waiver wire, I suggest after you have 1 TE, you should generally just wait until the last few rounds to add a backup.

Place Kickers:

Who cares right? Well...kind of right. Definitely nothing you should even look at until around round 12. But all drafts are different. In leagues that go after kickers early, just wait. You will get two decent ones 3 rounds after every other owner has their first. In leagues that sluff this position until real late, look towards the top of the kicker list in round 13. If your top kicker is available then draft him. Suffice it to say that in a lot of leagues now, people wait too long to take their kickers. You can generally maximize kicker value by taking the 5th or 6th kicker in a draft as a rule of thumb.

Defenses:

The top defenses (New England, Baltimore, Carolina) will not represent value in most leagues this year. Just like kickers, your league may draft defenses early or very late. Scoring systems generally come into play and define when defenses are taken.

I suggest you wait until round 11 to assess what to do next. If New England or Baltimore on the board, grab them and be done with this position. If those two teams are gone, I would wait until 6-8 defenses have been drafted and then see where the value is at.

Because owners rank defenses so differently, you can generally get good value just by waiting for the value to emerge.

A winning strategy to deploy after the draft for defenses is simply to look two games ahead in the waiver process. Most teams will have 1-2 defenses meaning that almost half of the defenses are available as free agent pick ups each week. By looking 2-3 weeks ahead at who will be playing Arizona, San Diego, New York Giants, or Houston you likely can find a cheap defense that should perform well against sub-par competition. Drop this defense after their "quality game" so that you can continue to pick up other defenses that will have good weeks. Because of this strategy, we advise you to draft but one quality defense and look to play matchups the rest of the way. Every year 2-3 defenses are predicted to be terrible and end up playing great (Atlanta, Carolina and Indianapolis last year).

Putting It All Together:

Look to draft RBs in the first two rounds unless significant value exists elsewhere. make this the centerpiece of your team.

QB value is throughout the draft so just wait until it emerges. Grab one stud in the 7th round and then add a "value QB" in rounds 10-14. Consider taking a flier with your last pick on a QB that could be a goldmine with a key injury.

Grab at least one quality WR (in rounds 3-5), but wait for value to emerge. It always does. Stockpile value WRs. Some will bust, but others will help you win your league.

Continue to draft for value looking at QB, RB and WR in rounds 3-8

Sluff TE unless Gonzalez, Heap or Shockey slide too far. If you don't get the Big 3 wait until after round 11 to draft your first tight end.

Sluff defense, but don't be afraid to grab the first or second in round 11. If defenses go earlier than normal, wait for 6-8 defenses to be picked before you take your first. Do not add a second defense (or if you do, add it very late). Work the waiver wire weeks ahead of great matchups for value.

Sluff kicker, but don't be afraid to grab the first or second in round 13. If kickers go early, take the 5th or 6th kicker in the draft. wait until the last rounds to add a second kicker.

Well that is it folks. Hope you all do well in your coming drafts. Remember, the key is not to just follow the Top 200 list, but to see where it differs substantially from average drafts. This is how you get value. And value is how you build winning fantasy teams.