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The Perfect Draft (12 Team Performance League)

Aaaah....The Perfect Draft. We have all dreamt of having it. Some of us have experienced it. And for those that have....we want it again and again. And why not? You surely did not subscribe to this website to be average. You want to dominate. You want to have such a good roster that others salivate over who you have. You want them all to come to you when discussing trades. And in this article I am going to break down how to have that perfect draft.

Let's start with the two basic principles of Value Based Drafting (VBD) and I will expound on them as we go through this.

ALL PLAYERS HAVE VALUE
Don't love anyone. Don't hate anyone. Get players that will significantly outperform their value and you will build a winning team.

UNDERSTAND WHAT THE AVERAGE GUY THINKS
It's this opinion that allows one to maximize draft value round after round. You may believe someone will be the 4th best WR, but if everybody else does not then you need to wait and maximize value.

If you don't follow these principles, you will not have a perfect draft. If you...believe rookie WRs are always bad...always avoid players after ACL injuries...avoid anyone over 30...refuse to ever draft a kicker before the last 3 rounds...always take RBs with your first two picks...on and on....then you will not have the perfect draft. Throw away the biases. Let value guide your team. Let others succumb to prejudices and generalities. You are here to win your league. And you do that by getting value every single round.

So what is value then? Value Based Drafting has shown us that we can compare unlike positions for comparative value. Let this be our guide. I am not going to rehash Joe Bryant's excellent article as many are familiar with it. But suffice it to say it all starts with projections. And these projections can be manipulated to form Top 200 lists. The good news is we have done that work for you at this site

If you want a customized cheatsheet you can go here

The Top 200 list from which we will be referring to can be found here

Let's have the perfect draft.

The goal is to get you the best possible team and to make sure you don't overpay for players that can still be had a few rounds later. What I looked for were players that we projected significantly better than where they were being drafted. For average draft position, I used a list from Xpertsleagues generated over the last week. To be ranked, the player or defense had to show up in at least 6 drafts. A similar list is available from Myfantasyleague.com and also Antsports.com. The positional analysis tracks to our projections which also can be found on this site.

This article assumes a 12 team league using scoring that starts 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 Def and 1 PK.

Quarterbacks:

Simply put, this is the deepest field of quarterbacks I have ever seen. 11 quarterbacks are "expected" to be drafted in the first 70 picks. 18 are "expected" to be drafted by the first 100 picks.

Let me repeat that so it sinks in. Nearly half of the teams will take their SECOND quarterback by the end of the 8th round?

Simply put, let me say this the easist way I can. Don't be one of those teams. The fantasy points differential between QB5 and QB15 is not enough (in most leagues) to justify spending two picks in the first 8 rounds on quarterbacks.

So how many QBs do you need in a perfect 12 team draft?

I think you need two. One that can be counted on and one that you can get very late in the draft that has potential.

Looking down the list of those "hot" 18 QBs and I see very little value at their average draft position.

With history as our guide, the top QBs are almost always drafted too early. And this makes sense. The QB position generally scores the most points so fantasy players want a good one. But since most leagues only require 1 starting QB there is little pressure on the remaining QBs after the first 5-6 are gone.

So unless you can get exceptional value on the first few QBs (Culpepper, Manning, McNabb, Hasselbeck), I suggest waiting because value always emerges after most everyone has their starting quarterback.

In fact, I think this is key #1 to winning your league this year. Resist the temptation and do not even think about drafting a QB until round 7. How can I say that with such conviction? Because draft after draft, I have seen the same thing happen. People overpay for the top stars and then a lull takes place before a mad rush ensues starting in round 7 for the quality quarterbacks left. This run continues until about 18 QBs have been taken.

According to the "expected draft positions" 8-12 QBs will be off the board by the time you draft your first in round 7. But your team can do much worse than having someone like Tom Brady, Brett Favre or Jeff Garcia as your starting QB. By my count, I see 13 quality QBs to anchor your team this year. Here are those 13 and the likelihood you can land them in the 7th round:

  1. Daunte Culpepper - No chance that he is available.
  2. Peyton Manning - No chance that he is available.
  3. Donovan McNabb - No chance that he is available.
  4. Matt Hasselbeck - No chance that he is available.
  5. Trent Green - No chance that he is available.
  6. Michael Vick - No chance that he is available.
  7. Steve McNair - No chance that he is available.
  8. Aaron Brooks (ADP = 65) - With his recent injury status limiting preseason workload, he may be available.
  9. Tom Brady (ADP = 74) - He is expected to be available.
  10. Jeff Garcia (ADP = 81) - He is expected to be available.
  11. Marc Bulger (ADP = 57) - Probably not available.
  12. Chad Pennington (ADP = 61) - 25% chance could be available.
  13. Brett Favre (ADP = 69) - 50% chance that he could be available.

Grab the best one you can. We think they all should be excellent.

And then sit back and enjoy the panic from the other owners as the QBs keep flying off the board. Later in the draft, set your sites on getting one of these quality backups:

  • Rich Gannon (Value = 89, ADP = 117) in the 9th round or later.
  • Carson Palmer (Value = 108, ADP = 119) in the 10th round or later.
  • Tim Rattay (Value = 124, ADP = 164) in the 12th round or later.

Again, the general strategy is to wait at QB unless exceptional value presents itself early. No need to panic at this position and just let the draft come to you. There is great value to be gained by waiting. Typically after those first 18 QBs are drafted (usually by the end of round 9), QBs will come off the board at about 2 per round until all of the starters are taken.

Additionally the following QBs are rarely drafted, but could be homeruns if the starting QB went down to injury:

Jon Kitna (Cin), Gus Frerotte (Min), Kerry Collins (Oak).

In leagues with deep drafts, taking a flier on one of these with your last pick in the draft could yield outstanding results. Less than half of the QBs in the league play all 16 games each year. The other owners will call you lucky if you hit on one of these players, but the engraving on the trophy still looks the same.

Running Backs:

In most leagues, running backs are golden. Yes they can run and catch, but the real reason they are golden is their simply aren't enough of them to go around. Every owner wants 3-4 quality backs. In 12 team leagues this creates huge demand with limited supply.

My strategy for the perfect 12 team draft is to try and secure 3 of the top 23 elite backs this season.

Here they are according to FBG rank:

  1. Priest Holmes
  2. LaDainian Tomlinson
  3. Deuce McAllister
  4. Ahman Green
  5. Clinton Portis
  6. Shaun Alexander
  7. Edgerrin James
  8. Kevan Barlow
  9. Jamal Lewis
  10. Fred Taylor
  11. Michael Bennett
  12. Corey Dillon
  13. Travis Henry
  14. Rudi Johnson
  15. Brian Westbrook
  16. Tiki Barber
  17. Domanick Davis
  18. Chris Brown
  19. Thomas Jones
  20. Stephen Davis
  21. Curtis Martin
  22. Quentin Griffin
  23. Marshall Faulk

Your ideal goal is to get three of these players and let the other owners fight over the table scraps that are left at running back. Unfortunately though only the people picking from the early spots in most 12 team leagues can get 3 of these players. And to get three of them, owners will need to pick RB, RB and RB in three successive picks.

Here are the only non-RB players that I would take before these elite 23 backs

  • Randy Moss at 13 overall or later.
  • Marvin Harrison at 17 overall or later.
  • Torry Holt at 21 overall or later.
  • Dante Culpepper at 24 overall or later.
  • Terrell Owens at 25 overall or later.
  • Chad Johnson at 28 overall or later.

There is a good chance that none of these players will be available at these spots. That is OK, continue to stockpile the elite RBs and position yourself for a strong draft the rest of the way. The reason you need to get exceptional value if you don't take running backs with your first 2-3 picks is because you will likely overpay for mediocre RBs every round after round 2. So getting Harrison at fair value, actually represents negative value to your squad because you will be scrambling to make the RB position work later in the draft.

Simple math shows the 23 elite backs could be gone as early as the 29th pick. So teams drafting late in the first round will likely not even have the possibility to execute this strategy. Once the 23 elite RBs are off the board, you have to shift gears and take the best available player. Continuing to pursue lesser RB talent is likely a recipe for disaster and should only be done if it coincides with the Top 200 valuations.

Besides taking quality RBs early, I also like these backs in the following rounds:

  • Warrick Dunn in the 5th round or later
  • Tyrone Wheatley in the late 5th round or later
  • Jerome Bettis in the 10th round or later
  • Tony Hollings in the 11th round or later
  • Michael Pittman in the 11th round or later
  • Moe Williams in the 9th round or later
  • Mike Alstott in the 12th round or later
  • Richie Anderson in the 14th round or later

I also believe the following backups could shine if given the opportunity: Onterrio Smith (Min), Maurice Morris (Sea), Najeh Davenport (GB), Deshaun Foster (Car), Larry Johnson (KC), Steven Jackson (StL) and Julius Jones (Dal). I suggest you target none of these specifically, but look to see if any are still around after the 13th round. Each could represent a homerun if they get to play. Reaching for them in the 6th to 10th rounds will hurt you in other places and is not advised.

Wide Receivers:

The biggest key to having a great wide receiver corps is implementing the QB and RB strategies from steps 1 and 2 above. By waiting at QB until round 7 and grabbing 2-3 RBs early, you have the 4th, 5th and 6th rounds (and possibly the 3rd round) to grab quality WRs. And this is exactly what you should do.

By the end of round 4, you should have at least 2 quality RBs and 1-2 quality receivers. Rounds 5 and 6 are the rounds where you should be looking to add solid WRs to your team. Simply follow the Top 200 list and grab quality receiver after receiver. Remember that a lot of owners will be securing their QBs here (and that just helps you stockpile even more of these solid players). Although a team constructed like this won't have a horse like Randy Moss, it should end up with a great team full of people in very secure situations. These players are also great for trading after the draft.

There almost always is great value at wide receiver late in a draft too and this year is no exception. But you will want the core talent to build around (especially in start 3 WRs leagues - which this article is based on).

Here are the WRs I believe will have exceptional value later in the draft:

  • Joey Galloway in the 9th round or later.
  • Eddie Kennison in the 10th round or later.
  • Muhsin Muhammad in the 11th round or later.
  • Quincy Morgan in the 12th round or later.
  • Dennis Northcutt in the 13th round or later.
  • Terry Glenn in the 13th round or later.
  • Travis Taylor in the 15th round or later.
  • Kelley Washington in the 15th round or later.
  • Ike Hilliard in the 15th round or later.
  • Todd Pinkston in the 16th round or later.

Some other WRs will undoubtedly slip in your drafts besides the above targeted bargain list. In recap, grap 1-2 solid receivers in your first 4 rounds and add 2 more in rounds 5 and 6. Then wait for exceptional value to emerge at WR because it always does.

Tight Ends:

Tony Gonzalez and Todd Heap are so much better than everyone else at TE this season, you should either get one of these players or wait until very late in the draft to pick your TEs.

I would pull the trigger on Gonzalez (late 3rd round) and Heap (late 5th round) if they are available. If you are lucky enough to land one of these players, simply look to add an additional value WR later

It's no surprise that since TEs catch a relatively small amount of passes primarily on short and intermediate routes (again, excluding the top tier guys), there isn't a great deal of variance usually between the 4th best TE and the 12th best, witness:

  • 2003 -- 4th (74 points), 12th (65 points) = 9 points difference (0.56 per game)

  • 2002 -- 4th (91 points), 12th (63 points) = 28 points difference (1.75 per game)

  • 2001 -- 4th (93 points), 12th (75 points) = 18 points difference (1.13 per game)

  • 2000 -- 4th (96 points), 12th (61 points) = 34 points difference (2.13 per game)

  • 1999 -- 4th (83 points), 12th (60 points) = 23 points difference (1.44 per game)


  • 5 YR AVG -- 4th (87 points), 12th (65 points) = 22 points difference (1.38 per game)

So ultimately, once you get past the big TEs, you're really debating over a point or two per week; which is why it is wise to just wait until the later rounds to select a TE.

In 2002, I told you to wait and get Todd Heap (great). In 2003, I targeted Stephen Alexander (bust), Freddie Jones (great) and Desmond Clark (average).

My pick for value TEs of the year are:

  • Daniel Graham in the 11th round or later
  • Desmond Clark in the 13th round or later
  • Jim Kleinsasser in the 15th round or later
  • Erron Kinney in the 16th round or later

Because quality TEs can usually be had on the waiver wire, I suggest after you have 1 TE, you should generally just wait until the last few rounds of your draft to add a backup.

Place Kickers:

Who cares right? Well...kind of right. Definitely nothing you should even look at until round 12. But all drafts are different. In leagues that go after kickers early, just wait. You will get two decent ones 3 rounds after every other owner has their first. In leagues that sluff this position until real late, look towards the top of the kicker list in round 12. If your top kicker is available then draft him. Suffice it to say that in a lot of leagues now, people wait too long to take their kickers. You can generally maximize kicker value by taking the 5th or 6th kicker in a draft as a rule of thumb. In waiver wire friendly leagues (most), don't be afraid to just draft 1 kicker and add others as necessary to cover the bye weeks/exploit matchups.

Defenses:

The top defenses (New England, Baltimore, Carolina) will not represent value in most leagues this year. Just like kickers, your league may draft defenses early or very late. Scoring systems generally come into play and define when defenses are taken.

I suggest you wait until round 12 to assess what to do next. If New England or Baltimore on the board, grab them and be done with this position. If those two teams are gone, I would wait until 6-8 defenses have been drafted and then see where the value is at.

Because owners rank defenses so differently, you can generally get good value just by waiting for the value to emerge.

A winning strategy to deploy after the draft for defenses is simply to look two games ahead in the waiver process. Most teams will have 1-2 defenses meaning that half of the defenses are available as free agent pick ups each week. By looking 2-3 weeks ahead at who will be playing Arizona, San Diego, New York Giants, or Houston you likely can find a cheap defense that should perform well against sub-par competition. Drop this defense after their "quality game" so that you can continue to pick up other defenses that will have good weeks. Because of this strategy, we advise you to draft but one quality defense and look to play matchups the rest of the way. Every year 2-3 defenses are predicted to be terrible and end up playing great (Atlanta, Carolina and Indianapolis last year).

Putting It All Together:

Look to draft 2 to 3 of the elite 23 RBs unless significant value exists elsewhere. Make this the centerpiece of your team.

QB value is throughout the draft so just wait until it emerges. Grab one QB in the 7th round and then add a "value QB" in rounds 10-12. Consider taking a flier with your last pick on a QB that could be a goldmine with a key injury.

Grab at least one quality WR (in rounds 2-4), stockpile 2 more solid contributors in rounds 5 and 6 and then wait for value to emerge. It always does. Stockpile value WRs. Some will bust, but others will help you win your league. Guys like Steve Smith emerge from deep in the draft every single year. Make sure you have drafted deep at WR to improve your chances at these breakout players.

Sluff TE unless Gonzalez or Heap slide too far. If you don't get the Big 2 TEs wait until after round 10 to draft your first tight end.

Sluff defense, but don't be afraid to grab the first or second in round 12. If defenses go earlier than normal, wait for 6-8 defenses to be picked before you take your first. Do not add a second defense (or if you do, add it very late). Work the waiver wire weeks ahead of great matchups for value.

Sluff kicker, but don't be afraid to grab the first or second in round 12. If kickers go early, take the 5th or 6th kicker in the draft. Wait until the last rounds to add a second kicker.

Well that is it folks. Hope you all do well in your coming drafts. Remember, the key is not to just follow the Top 200 list, but to see where it differs substantially from average drafts. This is how you get value. And value is how you build winning fantasy teams.

Notes:

I know there is more than one way to have a great draft. I have seen teams take players like Moss and Harrison with their first two picks and run away with titles by picking undervalued players the rest of the way. I am not going to state that this article is the ONLY way to be successful in your twelve team draft. It's simply one way to end up with a very competitive team.

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