Dynasty Spotlight - QB Chris Simms, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
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Posted 9/4 by Will Grant and Jason Wood, Exclusive to Footballguys.com
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General Info
6'4", 220 lbs. 23 years old
Texas
Simms came into the 2003 draft with a giant question mark above his head. It
turned into an embarrassment as the once potential first round pick was drafted
last in round three by Tampa. He spent the entire year on the bench, and will
begin the 2004 season in competition with Brian Griese to backup starter Brad
Johnson.
Will Grant's Thoughts
2004 Outlook
Talk about your draft day disappointments. This kid was talked about as a possible
first round pick. Almost falling off the first day must have been brutal for
him. What must have been even harder for him to deal with was the fact that
several teams were in SERIOUS need of a starting QB last year and passed on
him. Tampa was certainly not one of the first places that people felt Simms
would go. There's little question that 'son of Simms' will be out to prove himself
when he is given a chance.
But when is he going to get that chance? Tampa acquired Brian Griese in the
off season, and even though he had a rocky time in Miami, his game experience
landed him as the #2 guy behind Brad Johnson and kept Simms in the #3 slot.
Yet another shot to this young man's ego.
Although I can be counted as one of the few people who still think Brian Griese
can play in the NFL, even I can't deny that he has not lived up to his potential
and that this is probably his last shot at a productive career. If his pattern
of underachieving continues, Gruden won't hesitate to bounce him.
As for Brad Johnson, he's not getting any younger. Despite all of the rumors
out of Tampa that Johnson is going to be replaced he's still the starter as
he enters his 13th season. At 36 years old, his days as a starter are winding
down, and tossing a career high 21 INTs last year didn't help him any. He'll
begin training camp as the starter, but will be looking over his shoulder the
entire time.
For Simms this means his 2004 outlook is cloudy. If he has a great camp and
preseason, he could move ahead of Griese into the primary backup role. I think
this is a distinct possibility given how hard this kid has been working. From
there he's just going to have to wait for his turn. Gruden won't tolerate Johnson
turning over the ball so much, and if Simms can prove himself in the preseason,
Johnson might get the quick hook.
I see Simms taking about 30% of the snaps this season. Gruden's first goal
will be to get back to the playoffs, and he won't rush a young QB into the starting
lineup if it costs him the season. Hard work or not, you can't discount the
fact that Simms has never played a regular season game, and he'll take his lumps
just like any other young QB fresh out of the box.
Training camp will be the key. If he can establish himself as the primary backup,
he'll definitely get his chance this year. If he starts slow (or Griese makes
a big splash in camp) he'll stay as the #3 guy for most of the season and probably
have limited spot duty at best.
2007 Outlook
The sky is the limit for Simms by 2007. Johnson will be gone by that point,
and if he can put down Griese as his only competition, Simms will inherit the
front man position to a team that won the Super Bowl just two short years ago.
Given the improvements at WR and RB that the Bucs are making, this could mean
big things for a young kid with a motivation to prove himself. Brad Johnson
has had 3 very solid years in Tampa, and if Simms can take over the starting
job in 2005, he could be hitting his stride by 2007. If all goes well for Simms,
he should be looking at top 15, maybe even top 10 numbers by then.
Final Thoughts
It's best to take a 'wait and see' approach to Simms right now. If you have
an extra roster slot on your dynasty team and you're looking for a QB of the
future, Simms is just as good as any of the unproven young QBs to take a shot
with. The key with him will be how he does in camp this year. If he can move
into the primary backup role for the 2004 season, he's going to get his shot
and he'll be worth having on your roster at that point. If he can't beat out
Griese, or he bombs and is regulated to the #3 slot again, it will be time to
cut bait and go elsewhere. In that case Griese or some other free agent QB will
inherit the job and Simms will be a career backup QB in Tampa.
Jason Wood's Thoughts
Eli Manning may be grabbing all the headlines this year as the top choice in
the 2004 draft and "son of Archie, brother of Peyton" yet it's another
2nd generation signal caller who is likely to make more of an impact in 2004
and beyond, in my view.
Chris Simms, son of former New York Giant great Phil Simms, enters his 2nd
season with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. What's fantastic about Simms situation
is that he's been able to sit back and learn from one of the best offensive
minds in the game, Jon Gruden, while watching Brad Johnson play at a near elite
level in the system Simms will one day be asked to quarterback.
The question we need to ask ourselves for dynasty draft purposes is, when will
Simms get his shot? By most accounts, Brad Johnson remains entrenched as the
Buccaneers starting QB and, according to Ourlads, Simms is actually the 3rd
stringer behind newly acquired Brian Griese. Yet, the coaching staff has been
very quiet regarding the true depth chart and Brad Johnson's future with the
team beyond this season. In fact, Chris Mortensen of ESPN fame actually suggested
in a recent chat that Simms could be starting THIS YEAR if he progresses in
the way Jon Gruden expects.
So what do we know about Simms? He's got excellent size (6'4", 220 lbs.),
a rocket arm and a pedigree unmatched by most NFL quarterbacks. His father was
one of the most cerebral players at his position and remains a student of the
game, as CBS' lead color analyst for NFL telecasts. Chris Simms played four
years at the University of Texas, but shared the starting role with Major Applewhite
during his first three seasons. It was Simms inability to displace the less
physically gifted Applewhite, and his inability to beat Oklahoma which sullied
Simms' promise in some observers' eyes.
Coming out of college, Simms was considered a fringe first round prospect but
fell to the Bucs in the third round. While chagrined at the time, it could have
been the best thing to happen to him. As productive as Brad Johnson has been,
he's never been perceived as Gruden's "guy." Remember that Gruden
hand picked Rich Gannon to run the Raiders offense, and turned the career journeyman
into a league MVP. Gruden inherited Johnson, who didn't disappoint by leading
the Bucs to a Super Bowl, but regressed somewhat last year throwing 21 interceptions
to go along with 26 touchdowns. At 36 years old (in September), Johnson isn't
the future of the Bucs; no matter how well he plays in 2004.
2004 OUTLOOK
At worst, Simms will compete with Brian Griese for the backup role to open
the season. Most likely, Brad Johnson will open the season as the team's starter
and barring injury, will play well behind what the team hopes to be an improved
offensive line. Simms will take another year to learn the nuances of the system
and will see limited action. However, if Chris Mortensen is prescient, or if
Johnson struggles early due to injury or eroding skills, Simms could conceivably
see playing time later in the season. Logic dictates that Simms would get a
shot to play if the team appeared ready to rebuild; i.e., not heading to the
playoffs. Watch as the early part of the season unfolds, if the Bucs start slowly,
Simms could make a reasonably solid waiver pickup in deeper leagues.
2007 OUTLOOK
By 2007, Chris Simms will be the starting quarterback for the Buccaneers. His
rocket arm, patience in the pocket and studious demeanor are well suited for
Jon Gruden's style of play. The team will have gone through a painful rebuilding
process but after a strong playoff showing in 2006, Simms 2nd year as a full
time starter, 2007 will be a year of great expectations for Simms. Pairing him
with Michael Clayton and a few other weapons will make for a potent fantasy
passing attack.
Final Thoughts
I was one of those who unfairly questioned Chris Simms because I only paid
attention to him when he lost to Oklahoma. Yet, when the draft rolled around
two seasons ago I took a harder look at Simms career and it was impressive,
particularly in the context of playing for an ultra conservative play caller
at the University of Texas. I believe Simms will have every opportunity to win
the starting job outright in 2005, if not before. Logic dictates he won't see
the field much this year unless the Bucs get off to a horrible start, but from
a dynasty perspective, Simms should be on a short list of potential franchise
QBs already in the league, but yet to start a game.
Quotations from the Message Board Thread
To view the Entire Message Board Thread, Click here.
Tick:
I see Simms as a guy who will stick in the league for a few years as a promising
backup, finally get his chance for a season, flop, and either go back to being
a backup or retire. Think Doug Johnson or Eric Zeier. I just saw too many Oklahoma/Texas
games to have much faith in his abilities.
Hawk:
Simms has enough talent and a serious work ethic (chip on his shoulder to live
up to his Dad). He got better every year at Texas, and with a good QB coach
like Gruden, he'll be a starter in the NFL someday. He's no HoF'er, but he'll
stick for a while. Simms never played well against OU, but neither did his O-line,
WRs, RB, and primarily, his OC sucked. There were many more games where he played
great for Texas
Jetmonkey:
Wow I am really surprised at all the negative feedback after hearing that the
TB starting job will be his more sooner than later. Based upon Gruden's slow
schooling technique (e.g. Chad Pennington in NYJ) I've been quietly acquiring
him in my various non-redraft leagues. I was hoping he would stay on the bench
for at least one more entire season and not take over the reigns until he got
a full offseason as the declared starter under his belt.
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