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Dynasty Spotlight - QB Chris Simms, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

General Info

6'4", 220 lbs. 23 years old
Texas

Simms came into the 2003 draft with a giant question mark above his head. It turned into an embarrassment as the once potential first round pick was drafted last in round three by Tampa. He spent the entire year on the bench, and will begin the 2004 season in competition with Brian Griese to backup starter Brad Johnson.

Will Grant's Thoughts

2004 Outlook

Talk about your draft day disappointments. This kid was talked about as a possible first round pick. Almost falling off the first day must have been brutal for him. What must have been even harder for him to deal with was the fact that several teams were in SERIOUS need of a starting QB last year and passed on him. Tampa was certainly not one of the first places that people felt Simms would go. There's little question that 'son of Simms' will be out to prove himself when he is given a chance.

But when is he going to get that chance? Tampa acquired Brian Griese in the off season, and even though he had a rocky time in Miami, his game experience landed him as the #2 guy behind Brad Johnson and kept Simms in the #3 slot. Yet another shot to this young man's ego.

Although I can be counted as one of the few people who still think Brian Griese can play in the NFL, even I can't deny that he has not lived up to his potential and that this is probably his last shot at a productive career. If his pattern of underachieving continues, Gruden won't hesitate to bounce him.

As for Brad Johnson, he's not getting any younger. Despite all of the rumors out of Tampa that Johnson is going to be replaced he's still the starter as he enters his 13th season. At 36 years old, his days as a starter are winding down, and tossing a career high 21 INTs last year didn't help him any. He'll begin training camp as the starter, but will be looking over his shoulder the entire time.

For Simms this means his 2004 outlook is cloudy. If he has a great camp and preseason, he could move ahead of Griese into the primary backup role. I think this is a distinct possibility given how hard this kid has been working. From there he's just going to have to wait for his turn. Gruden won't tolerate Johnson turning over the ball so much, and if Simms can prove himself in the preseason, Johnson might get the quick hook.

I see Simms taking about 30% of the snaps this season. Gruden's first goal will be to get back to the playoffs, and he won't rush a young QB into the starting lineup if it costs him the season. Hard work or not, you can't discount the fact that Simms has never played a regular season game, and he'll take his lumps just like any other young QB fresh out of the box.

Training camp will be the key. If he can establish himself as the primary backup, he'll definitely get his chance this year. If he starts slow (or Griese makes a big splash in camp) he'll stay as the #3 guy for most of the season and probably have limited spot duty at best.

2007 Outlook

The sky is the limit for Simms by 2007. Johnson will be gone by that point, and if he can put down Griese as his only competition, Simms will inherit the front man position to a team that won the Super Bowl just two short years ago. Given the improvements at WR and RB that the Bucs are making, this could mean big things for a young kid with a motivation to prove himself. Brad Johnson has had 3 very solid years in Tampa, and if Simms can take over the starting job in 2005, he could be hitting his stride by 2007. If all goes well for Simms, he should be looking at top 15, maybe even top 10 numbers by then.

Final Thoughts

It's best to take a 'wait and see' approach to Simms right now. If you have an extra roster slot on your dynasty team and you're looking for a QB of the future, Simms is just as good as any of the unproven young QBs to take a shot with. The key with him will be how he does in camp this year. If he can move into the primary backup role for the 2004 season, he's going to get his shot and he'll be worth having on your roster at that point. If he can't beat out Griese, or he bombs and is regulated to the #3 slot again, it will be time to cut bait and go elsewhere. In that case Griese or some other free agent QB will inherit the job and Simms will be a career backup QB in Tampa.

Jason Wood's Thoughts

Eli Manning may be grabbing all the headlines this year as the top choice in the 2004 draft and "son of Archie, brother of Peyton" yet it's another 2nd generation signal caller who is likely to make more of an impact in 2004 and beyond, in my view.

Chris Simms, son of former New York Giant great Phil Simms, enters his 2nd season with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. What's fantastic about Simms situation is that he's been able to sit back and learn from one of the best offensive minds in the game, Jon Gruden, while watching Brad Johnson play at a near elite level in the system Simms will one day be asked to quarterback.

The question we need to ask ourselves for dynasty draft purposes is, when will Simms get his shot? By most accounts, Brad Johnson remains entrenched as the Buccaneers starting QB and, according to Ourlads, Simms is actually the 3rd stringer behind newly acquired Brian Griese. Yet, the coaching staff has been very quiet regarding the true depth chart and Brad Johnson's future with the team beyond this season. In fact, Chris Mortensen of ESPN fame actually suggested in a recent chat that Simms could be starting THIS YEAR if he progresses in the way Jon Gruden expects.

So what do we know about Simms? He's got excellent size (6'4", 220 lbs.), a rocket arm and a pedigree unmatched by most NFL quarterbacks. His father was one of the most cerebral players at his position and remains a student of the game, as CBS' lead color analyst for NFL telecasts. Chris Simms played four years at the University of Texas, but shared the starting role with Major Applewhite during his first three seasons. It was Simms inability to displace the less physically gifted Applewhite, and his inability to beat Oklahoma which sullied Simms' promise in some observers' eyes.

Coming out of college, Simms was considered a fringe first round prospect but fell to the Bucs in the third round. While chagrined at the time, it could have been the best thing to happen to him. As productive as Brad Johnson has been, he's never been perceived as Gruden's "guy." Remember that Gruden hand picked Rich Gannon to run the Raiders offense, and turned the career journeyman into a league MVP. Gruden inherited Johnson, who didn't disappoint by leading the Bucs to a Super Bowl, but regressed somewhat last year throwing 21 interceptions to go along with 26 touchdowns. At 36 years old (in September), Johnson isn't the future of the Bucs; no matter how well he plays in 2004.

2004 OUTLOOK

At worst, Simms will compete with Brian Griese for the backup role to open the season. Most likely, Brad Johnson will open the season as the team's starter and barring injury, will play well behind what the team hopes to be an improved offensive line. Simms will take another year to learn the nuances of the system and will see limited action. However, if Chris Mortensen is prescient, or if Johnson struggles early due to injury or eroding skills, Simms could conceivably see playing time later in the season. Logic dictates that Simms would get a shot to play if the team appeared ready to rebuild; i.e., not heading to the playoffs. Watch as the early part of the season unfolds, if the Bucs start slowly, Simms could make a reasonably solid waiver pickup in deeper leagues.

2007 OUTLOOK

By 2007, Chris Simms will be the starting quarterback for the Buccaneers. His rocket arm, patience in the pocket and studious demeanor are well suited for Jon Gruden's style of play. The team will have gone through a painful rebuilding process but after a strong playoff showing in 2006, Simms 2nd year as a full time starter, 2007 will be a year of great expectations for Simms. Pairing him with Michael Clayton and a few other weapons will make for a potent fantasy passing attack.

Final Thoughts

I was one of those who unfairly questioned Chris Simms because I only paid attention to him when he lost to Oklahoma. Yet, when the draft rolled around two seasons ago I took a harder look at Simms career and it was impressive, particularly in the context of playing for an ultra conservative play caller at the University of Texas. I believe Simms will have every opportunity to win the starting job outright in 2005, if not before. Logic dictates he won't see the field much this year unless the Bucs get off to a horrible start, but from a dynasty perspective, Simms should be on a short list of potential franchise QBs already in the league, but yet to start a game.


Quotations from the Message Board Thread

To view the Entire Message Board Thread, Click here.

Tick:
I see Simms as a guy who will stick in the league for a few years as a promising backup, finally get his chance for a season, flop, and either go back to being a backup or retire. Think Doug Johnson or Eric Zeier. I just saw too many Oklahoma/Texas games to have much faith in his abilities.

Hawk:
Simms has enough talent and a serious work ethic (chip on his shoulder to live up to his Dad). He got better every year at Texas, and with a good QB coach like Gruden, he'll be a starter in the NFL someday. He's no HoF'er, but he'll stick for a while. Simms never played well against OU, but neither did his O-line, WRs, RB, and primarily, his OC sucked. There were many more games where he played great for Texas

Jetmonkey:
Wow I am really surprised at all the negative feedback after hearing that the TB starting job will be his more sooner than later. Based upon Gruden's slow schooling technique (e.g. Chad Pennington in NYJ) I've been quietly acquiring him in my various non-redraft leagues. I was hoping he would stay on the bench for at least one more entire season and not take over the reigns until he got a full offseason as the declared starter under his belt.

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