Dynasty Spotlight - WR David Givens, New England Patriots
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Posted 9/4 by Will Grant and Andy Hicks, Exclusive to Footballguys.com
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General Info
6'0", 216 lbs. 24 years old
Notre Dame
Givens was a 7th round draft pick in 2002 for the Patriots. He came out of
nowhere last year to really spark the Patriot passing game down the stretch.
His 17 catch, 163 yard, 2 TD postseason performance is a big part of why the
Patriots won the Super Bowl last year. He enters the 2004 season a starting
WR for the Patriots, opposite Deion Branch.
Will Grant's Thoughts
2004 Outlook
During the final three games of the 2003 season, Givens posted 17 receptions
for 206 yards and 3 TDs. Add these to the totals from the playoffs, and you
can see the upside potential of Givens as a starting WR for the Patriots.
Givens is being drafted around WR48 in most redraft leagues right now. That's
ALMOST a 5th wide receiver in most 12 team leagues. He may be getting more play
in the dynasty drafts, but odds are this guy can be had for solid value.
New England likes to spread the ball around a lot, but Brady is beginning to
see value in Givens for his size and skills. If Givens can hall in the majority
of the catches for the Patriots, he's going to finish with a great year. If
he's available, you should consider him for your dynasty team as well because
he is a fairly young kid who has many years to go on his career.
2007 Outlook
If Givens remains the starter for three years, his reception total is going
to increase. By 2007, he could be hauling in 70-80 receptions and cracking the
1100 yard, 8 TD Mark. He should be a solid performer for a long time.
The main threat to Givens long term is that the Pats like to spread the ball
around, and they have a lot of young WRs to throw to. Givens joins Branch, Johnson,
Patten and JJ Stokes as a very deep WR corps of talented younger WRs Any or
all of these guys could cut into Givens' playing time and steal catches from
him all along the way.
Final Thoughts
Cautious optimism is probably the best thing to use when targeting or selecting
Givens as a WR. He could really turn into something for the Patriots and your
fantasy team over the long hall. He could also flounder as the Pats spread the
ball around trying to keep every WR involved in the offense.
Your best bet is to watch the training camp and see how Givens progresses as
a wide receiver before deciding if you want him on your dynasty roster.
Andy Hicks' Thoughts
2004 OUTLOOK
I've already had my say on David Givens here.
To recap:
David Givens will be incredibly underrated going into drafts this year. He finished
last season 44th, and his current Antsports ADP is 50. Troy Brown is at 49.
The logic here is baffling. Do people think Givens will regress? As I mentioned
in the article Givens finals season stats of 34-510-6 do not paint the full
picture. To do that effectively we must split the season into 3 sections.
- Early Season - Givens is injured and when fit struggles to see any action
at all.
- Mid Season - Givens is still struggling with injury, but starting to see
a little more action with the injury to Troy Brown. Deion Branch excels during
this part of the season
- Road to the Super Bowl - All the Patriot receivers are fit, yet who leads
the team in all 4 major categories: Targets, Receptions, Yards and TDs.? David
Givens of course.
This wasn't some late season run on a team that was out of contention, this
was on the eventual Super Bowl winners. To think that Givens will perform like
he did for the entire year last year again, or even worse is ludicrous. He has
top 30 receiver written all over him. Troy Brown will not be starting. He will
still see action, but no more than most #3s in the league. The starters are
clearly Branch and Givens. Deion Branch is being drafted ahead of Givens in
almost every draft. Branch is good value himself, but I think he will underperform
Givens. Yes Branch got more receptions, targets and yards than Givens, but once
Givens found his feet at the NFL level it was no contest. Yes, Branch had an
amazing Super Bowl (10-143-1), but what about his previous 5 contests? 14-131-0
combined.
Givens also offers one thing Brown and Branch do not, touchdowns. Six in the
regular season and 2 in the playoffs. Brown overachieved on his normal touchdown
average with 4 last year, whilst Branch got 4 including the one in the Super
Bowl. Branch saw significantly more action in his rookie season and only managed
2 touchdowns. Givens is more physical and taller than Branch, who at 5'9 needs
every break he can get.
Being a 7th rounder Givens has had to earn his keep playing special teams and
proving to the coaching staff he can be relied upon as a receiver. Being underutilized
at college meant he needed polish and development. Playing just about every
position including defense at times hardly helped his draft status. The Patriots
took a gamble and were rewarded with Givens sterling work down the stretch.
For where you can draft Givens this year it won't cost much to make that leap.
Once you have made it you will be pleasantly surprised.
2007 OUTLOOK
Where Givens stands in 2007 will depend on what the Patriots decide to do with
him after this season. He will be a restricted free agent and currently the
cost will only be a 7th rounder. The Patriots don't often give long term, rich
contracts so it would not be a shock to see Givens in another teams colors in
2005. What this does for his future outlook depends on where he is. If he remains
with New England then he should be recognized as a good fantasy #2 receiver.
I do not expect him to be at the top of draft boards year in and year out, that's
not the type of player he is, but he'll be the Keenan McCardell type of player
who gets a good job done every year.
If he does leave then that makes forecasting difficult, anyone paying to get
a #1 receiver will likely end up disappointed. Givens will be a blood and guts
type of receiver who will give his all, but he is not explosive. He'll make
some team a good possession receiver and if he walks into a clear #2 role opposite
a stud then he'll make a nice acquisition. If I had to make a call, I'd say
Givens stays with the Patriots.
Final Thoughts
As you may have guessed I am higher on Givens this year than in future years,
but that's because of the ridiculous value on offer. If I had to offer the late
selection I am most certain on this year David Givens is the clear winner. What
have you got to lose?
Quotations from the Message Board Thread
To view the Entire Message Board Thread, Click here.
WinningIsEverything:
I was truly impressed with the strides Givens made last year. He became a
good fill in towards the end of the year and he was getting excellent redzone
love. I am only hoping we is not a one year wonder type though. He was a seventh
round pick, and was so for a reason. We saw Bobby Engram come out of nowhere
and get 6 TDs last year after 3 straight years of zero. Will Givens be this
type of player?
ExtraPoint:
Givens' situation warrants an immediate preseason roster spot. However if
he loses the starting job or you are in a small league I wouldn't hesitate to
dump him. If you have any Pats fans in your league (bandwagoners) I might even
trade him. Yes, he's taller than New England's other receivers but he's not
really tall for an NFL receiver. He's going to have to continue to work his
tail off and improve if he's going to make much of an impact on anyone's fantasy
team. Otherwise look for him to head back to the bench. Recommendation: Hold
or Dump
Biabreakable:
I really like David Givens. As soon as trading opened up after the 2003 season
I snapped him up in trades for cheep. I considered him to be a great buy prospect.
I agree that he might not be consistent enough or improve over time. There are
a lot of other WRs that Givens has to compete with for targets in NE.
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