Dynasty Watch - Week 14
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Posted 12/10 by Mike Anderson and Will Grant, Exclusive to Footballguys.com
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The purpose of this column is to spotlight deeper roster moves that could pay
off big over the course of the season. Unless stated in a player's write up,
we're not looking for one-week wonders here, but shark moves that could really
strengthen your team down the road.
Dynasty Watch focuses on low risk, huge payoff roster moves that you
might be able make before the guys in your league think about it. This aim of
this column is to make you look like a genius to the other owners in your league.
When news breaks, and the other owners are scrambling to make a waiver wire
move, we want them to be upset time and time again that the player is already
on your squad.
Larry Croom: RB Arizona Cardinals
5'10" 205 lbs - Nevada-Las Vegas
23 years old. 2004 Undrafted Rookie Free Agent
Receiving Stats |
Att
|
Yards
|
TDs
|
Rec
|
Yards
|
TDs
|
2004 Regular Season |
29
|
73
|
0
|
2
|
16
|
0
|
2004 Preseason |
30
|
103
|
1
|
8
|
47
|
0
|
What has he done so far
Croom cracked the starting lineup after a few injuries sidelined Emmitt Smith
and Troy Hambrick. He finished the game with 18 carries for only 49 yards. In
the preseason, Croom got the most work for the Cardinals, and his stats were
a bit better.
Many undrafted rookies are not on an NFL roster when the season starts. The
odds are pretty slim. The fact that Croom was undrafted in 2004 is an interesting
accomplishment.
Current Situation
Starter by default. Both Smith and Hambrick are ahead of him on the depth chart.
With Hambrick on injured reserve, Croom should see more production between now
and the end of the season.
Spotlight ETA
The time is NOW for Croom. The Cardinals are already out of the playoff hunt,
and they will be evaluating talent on their roster. With Hambrick gone and Smith
injured, Croom will have an opportunity to really show his stuff. If he can
turn in an impressive outing or two between now and the end of the year, he
can secure himself the starting job for 2005.
Dynasty Upside
Emmitt Smith is at the end of his career. If he returns next season, it probably
won' t be as the starter. Troy Hambrick has been erratic in his performances
this year. He has had a few good games (16-79 1 TD vs NO) but he has also has
some lousy ones (10-29 0 TDs vs SF). Marcel Shipp was projected to be the starter
for this year, but he was lost to injury before the season even began. Given
his 2003 performance (228-830 0 TDs) and the lack of opportunity to impress
the new coaching staff this year, Shipp is not guaranteed the starting job when
he returns either.
Croom has the perfect chance to show head coach Dennis Green that he can perform
at the NFL level. If he can really turn it on between now and the end of the
season, he can head into the 2005 training camp with a big advantage on the
starting job.
Final Thoughts
Since 1999, the Cardinals have never finished higher than 20th in total offense.
In fact, there are several backup RBs who will probably finish with better stats
than anyone on the Arizona roster. So why would you want Croom in the first
place? Dennis Green.
Dennis Green likes to run the ball. In his last four full seasons with the
Vikings, Minnesota ranked 6th (2000), 14th (1999), 11th (1998), 6th (1997).
Whoever starts in Arizona will have a golden opportunity to put up some solid
fantasy numbers.
Now is Croom on the same level as Michael Bennett, Robert Smith, or Leroy Hoard?
Not that he has shown. Is Arizona the offensive machine that Minnesota was during
that time? Not even close! Even if Croom is named the starter in 2005, will
he finish in the top 20 for fantasy running backs? Probably not.
However, starting running backs in the NFL are hard to come by. In a dynasty
league, even a weak starter has some value. Croom just might be that guy. Most
rosters are frozen at this time of the year in preparation for the playoffs,
so Croom probably won't be snatched up by anyone else in your league for a bit.
Keep an eye on him between now and the end of the season, and see if he can
improve on his performance. If he shows some signs of life, take a gamble and
grab him for the offseason.
Derrick Ward: RB New York Giants
5'11" 233 lbs - Ottawa KS
24 years old. 7th round pick in the 2004 draft, 235th overall
Ward has no NFL offensive stats.
What has he done so far
While with the Jets, Derrick Ward was placed above Lamont Jordan on the depth
card, but really we all know that wasn't real, and it was to motivate Jordan.
He signed with the Giants in the middle of October and hasn't taken a snap.
He has however gotten into two games so far.
Current Situation
Ward is 5'11" and 233 lbs. He has the size to be a short yardage/goalline
back. And as long as Tiki is around, that's the most it is ever going to be.
Currently, Dayne is a total bust, and Mike Cloud is in that role.
There is a shot for Ward here, but we haven't seen enough of him to really
know anything. With Cloud hurting lately, it is Dayne that the Giants are trying
to go back to. I would have figured that Ward would have gotten a shot before
now so I basically put him on the back burner for the rest of the season to
see what happens with Dayne and Cloud in the offseason.
Spotlight ETA
It is unlikely that we will see much from Ward this season. It's truly perplexing.
Cloud can't stay healthy and is small for the short yardage role. Dayne is just
worthless. Ward should be in there. He proved his speed and ability last week
with a 92 yard kick return.
Dynasty Upside
There is definitely room for another back in NY. In the 4 seasons before this
year, Tiki went over the 300 carry mark one time, and that was for 303 carries.
The Giants as a total had 387 carries in 2003. This season, Tiki has carried
the ball 224 times, or 20 carries a game. He is on pace for 320 carries.
Coughlin is known for is ball control. Coughlin is a stickler for not turning
the ball over, and using big backs in certain sets. In eight seasons as the
head coach of the Jaguars, Coughlin teams averaged 450 carries a season, only
once dropping below the 400 carry mark.
Final Thoughts
Just simply looking at history, some bigger back is going to get 130+ carries
a year as the "Stacy Mack" to Tiki as Coughlin gets more and more
of his offense in place. Even now, Cloud/Dayne are getting key carries from
Tiki. This looks like an incredible position for Ward to be in.
Special thanks to Nuclear George from the message board
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