Face Off - WR Anquan Boldin - Arizona Cardinals
|
Upside by Cathy Fazio
Anquan Boldin came out of nowhere with his rookie of the year performance last
season. He surprised everyone in his first game against the Detroit Lions with
his 10 receptions for 217 yards and 2 touchdowns. And he proved that game was
no fluke by finishing 2003 with 101 receptions for 1377 yards and 8 touchdowns.
Was 2003 a fluke for this rookie of the year, or will he prove that he is a
top NFL receiver? I believe the latter. And here's why.
- He's got the talent. Boldin is a tough receiver, able to make difficult
catches and on top of that he has the speed to breakaway after making the
catch.
- There are some new guys in town. Dennis Green has been hired as the
Arizona Cardinals' head coach. Green has a proven track record as an offensive
genius, molding NFL stars like Daunte Culpepper and Randy Moss. The Cardinals
drafted Larry Fitzgerald with their first round draft pick. The Cardinals
have been impressed with how he has progressed and Fitzgerald should prove
to be a good complement to Boldin.
- Josh McCown is the starting quarterback. Last season, Boldin made
his accomplishments with a quarterback situation in flux. Jeff Blake and McCown
split time last year. Josh McCown has now been firmly established as the Arizona
Cardinals starting quarterback. This stability should be beneficial to Boldin.
Even if you take a twenty percent reduction in Boldin's stats from last season,
he still finishes with 80 receptions for 1103 yards and 6 touchdowns. That is
enough to keep him in the top 15 wide receivers. And it bears repeating, that
is with a twenty percent reduction in his numbers.
With the changes that the Cardinals have made and the quarterback stability
now in place, I just don't see that twenty percent reduction as likely. Look
for Boldin to continue to shine.
Downside by Chase Stuart
There are a lot of reasons to be down on Anquan Boldin this year, looking from
a historical perspective. From 1991-2002, we've seen the top rookie WR see their
FP/G drop the following year. With thanks to Maurile Tremblay, here's the dirty
dozen:
Year
|
Player |
Yr1 FP/G
|
Yr2 FP/G
|
Diff
|
2003
|
Anquan Boldin |
11.8
|
??
|
??
|
2002
|
Donte' Stallworth |
8.3
|
6.1
|
2.2
|
2001
|
Chris Chambers |
8.7
|
6.6
|
2.1
|
2000
|
Peter Warrick |
7.0
|
4.7
|
2.3
|
1999
|
Kevin Johnson |
9.2
|
4.2
|
5.0
|
1998
|
Randy Moss |
14.6
|
13.6
|
1.0
|
1997
|
Rae Carruth |
5.8
|
3.0
|
2.8
|
1996
|
Terry Glenn |
10.2
|
7.9
|
2.3
|
1995
|
Joey Galloway |
10.5
|
9.6
|
0.9
|
1994
|
Darnay Scott |
8.0
|
7.1
|
0.9
|
1993
|
Horace Copeland |
6.5
|
1.9
|
4.6
|
1992
|
Arthur Marshall |
3.8
|
3.0
|
0.8
|
1991
|
Lawrence Dawsey |
6.7
|
5.6
|
1.1
|
Of course, that just looks at rookies. What if we examine everyone? Anquan
Boldin led the league last year in percentage of team receiving yards. He caught
a whopping 42.2% of his team's passing yards. The last person to catch over
40% of their team's yards? Marvin Harrison, 2002. He saw a 3.6 FP/G drop last
year.
However, that's just a league-wide perspective. What if we look at just the
Cardinals? Believe it or not, they've actually had two other players finish
in the top five WRs (as Boldin did last year) in the last seven seasons.
Year
|
Player |
Yr1 FP/G
|
Yr2 FP/G
|
Diff
|
1999
|
David Boston |
13.5
|
7.5
|
6.0
|
1997
|
Rob Moore |
12.9
|
8.0
|
4.9
|
Additionally, as Doug Drinen mentioned, Boldin scored an extreme amount of
fantasy points in garbage
time. I think he took a lot of teams by surprise last year, and a better
Arizona team will lead to less garbage time chances. We've already seen that
Boldin was essentially the Cardinals offense last year-well this year, they've
added Larry Fitzgerald. Dennis Green has said that Boldin won't catch 100 passes
again.
Boldin had a tremendous rookie season. However, he's on a team that doesn't
throw for a lot of yards, and I think he's going to see his share of the pie
decrease this year.
|