Upside by Marc Levin
There is a ton to like about Domanick Davis' chances to be a topnotch RB2 for your fantasy squad - or even a good start to your draft from the bottom of the first round. First of all, he is playing in a ball control offense for a coach who ran the ball 421 times in 2003 and 424 times in 2002. That allows the coach to run Davis 300 or more times even while giving Tony Hollings plenty of work.

Davis' 4.3 YPC average last year was created by a lot of mature running. Davis has instincts that allow him to find the weakest part of the defense, he breaks tackles, he has excellent balance, and he is able to use his vision to explode into space. These are things that are hard to teach, but are desirable in any back. He also seemed to have a nose for the end zone as he scored 8 times on 40 rushes inside the 20 (that's a TD once every 5 carries in the red zone).

Moreover, Davis racked up 47 catches in 14 games - including a period where he caught few balls because of the QB-carousel after QB David Carr was injured. He had quite a few games where, if he failed to reach 100 yards rushing, he was able to get there with his combined yardage. He is a player with tremendous upside, and he fits the mold of talent plus opportunity equating to production. Hollings can be worked extensively for 120 carries and 30 catches without severely impacting Davis' ability to get 300 carries and 50 catches.

The only question surrounding Davis is his health - he was dinged up a bit in 2003 and has already been injure a bit in the preseason. The solution? Draft Hollings, too, as your RB5 - Hollings won't impact Davis' numbers while Davis is healthy enough to go. Draft Davis with confidence in the early second as your RB2.

Downside by Chris Smith
Davis shocked the football world last season when he exploded onto the scene with the Texans. Nobody expected him to have the kind of impact he did as a rookie in 2003 and he became a savior to many fantasy owners who lucked into picking him up in the waiver wire after his hot start. Flash forward to the 2004 season and now Davis is a player being targeting very early in a fantasy draft, even sneaking into the top ten in many cases. I believe Davis will put up good numbers this season but there are reasons to be a little leery when it comes to selecting him too early.

Reasons to worry

• Tony Hollings is now 100% healthy and has looked awesome thus far during the offseason



• He only managed one 100-yard rushing effort in the Texans last seven weeks



• He only averaged 3.6 YPC in the last seven weeks of the season

Bottom Line
Davis will be solid in 2004. Nobody is going to debate that. However I see him going as early as 10th overall in drafts and there are too many risks to take him that high. He only averaged 3.6 YPC to close out the season and Hollings is a very talented player whom the Texans took last year to be the future back of this team knowing full well his 2003 season would be a write-off. At best this season, expect Hollings to get 6+ carries per game in spelling Davis but that number could be adjusted significantly if Hollings plays as well as anticipated. Drafting Davis as a # 2 back is a shrewd move but don't pay too high of a price to land him on your team. He should never slip into the first round.