Upside by Jason Wood
Let's not mince words, Donovan McNabb got off to a horrendous start last season. After being one of the top QBs off the board in nearly every draft, McNabb found himself the lowest rated passer in the league after six games. Philadelphia fans were calling for his benching. Thankfully, for fantasy owners and Eagles fans alike, McNabb returned to the All Pro form we have come to expect and was nothing short of spectacular the rest of the season.

• Weeks 1 through 7 (6 games) - 91 for 190 (47.8%), 853 passing yards, 2 TD passes, 6 INTs, 174 yards rushing = 62 fantasy points (10.3 PPG) = QB30



• Weeks 8 through 17 (10 games) - 234 for 359 (65.2%), 2370 passing yards, 14 TDs, 5 INTs, 182 yards rushing = 206 fantasy points (20.6 PPG) = QB2

Patient fantasy owners were rewarded when it counted most, the playoff home stretch. Aside from those first six weeks (when McNabb appeared to be battling lingering thumb problems), he has been one of the elite fantasy players at his position for years.

Looking ahead to this season, McNabb is positioned for a career year thanks to the addition of Terrell Owens. One could argue that Owens joining the Eagles is the most significant positional upgrade in the entire league, and it provides McNabb with a reliable target, particularly in the red zone, for the first time in his career.

McNabb is fantasy money in the bank. If he simply maintains his typical level of play in 2004 you've got yourself a top 5 fantasy QB; yet, if he improves his passing production thanks to Owens as many expect, you could be looking at the top player at the position. Draft accordingly.

Downside by Mark Wimer
Donovan McNabb is a great player in the NFL - his 4 consecutive Pro-Bowls attest to that fact. Troy Aikman was also a great NFL quarterback, who went to the Pro-Bowl 6 consecutive times (1991-1996). Mark Brunell went to the Pro-Bowl 3 times (1996,1997, 1999) - the point here is, Pro-Bowl seasons do not necessarily equate to topflight fantasy performances. Such has been the case with Donovan McNabb in the past two years: over 10 games in 2002, McNabb threw for 211 completions, 2289 yards, 17 TDs and only 6 interceptions (with 63/460/6 rushing). Of course, his fantasy owners were high-and-dry during the playoff run, while McNabb stood on the sidelines with an injury. Many observers in fantasy circles were excited by McNabb's potential over 16 games (projecting huge numbers of fantasy points) coming into 2003. What we got was 275 completions, 3216 yards, 16 TDs and 11 interceptions with 71/355/3 rushing - hardly a fantasy bonanza.

This year, Terrell Owens comes to town and is supposed to give McNabb a first-rate WR to throw to - yet Owens' performance dipped significantly last season (80/1102/9), while various ailments kept him from practicing regularly during most of 2003. The extent to which Owens' presence will improve McNabb's fantasy performance is open to debate - I, for one, don't expect a quantum leap. Factor in the team's evident desire to limit McNabb's rushing attempts (he had the least carries for the least yards during a full 16-game season so far in his career last year) and the return of a fully rehabilitated Correll Buckhalter to the lineup, and you can see why McNabb is unlikely to surpass last year's rushing totals this season. All in all, McNabb's fantasy upside due to "bonus" rushing yardage and TDs is not as sizable as it was earlier in his career.

3200-3400 yards passing, with 18-20 TDs and 13-15 interceptions (with 300-400 rushing and 3-4 TDs) is the best you can expect from McNabb in 2004 - those totals leave him out of my top 10 fantasy QBs