Upside by Aaron Rudnicki
The Bills offense of 2004 was a perfect storm of problems - nearly everything that could go wrong, did go wrong. Yes, Bledsoe had a terrible year and only managed to throw 11 TDs while getting sacked a league-leading 49 times. His decision making was often poor and his accuracy was spotty. But, a closer look at the problems, and the changes made to address those problems, should provide plenty of optimism regarding Bledsoe's 2004 season.

Problem: Terrible offensive line play.
Solution: Bills hired one of the best offensive line coaches in the league in Jim McNally, who should be able to light a fire under #4 overall pick Mike Williams and get the most out of LT Jonas Jennings in his contract year. The release of Ruben Brown is addition by subtraction as his pass protection has been poor for several years now.

Problem: Eric Moulds tore his groin muscle, leaving the Bills with no legit deep threat to threaten defenses.
Solution: Moulds enters the season 100% healthy, and the Bills spent their 1st round draft pick on Lee Evans, perhaps the fastest and most polished WR in the draft. Having these 2 burners on the outside will force defenders to honor the deep ball again, which Bledsoe can throw very well when he is given time.

Problem: Terrible play calling.
Solution: Kevin Gilbride was so bad last year that he should have been fired mid-season. Despite a line that couldn't pass block and defenses that blitzed on nearly every down, he kept calling pass play after pass play in hopes that one big completion would soften up the defense. Teams just teed off on Bledsoe last year, but that won't happen this year as new head coach Mike Mularkey has preached offensive balance and a commitment to the run, which should take a lot of pressure off Bledsoe and allow him the time in the pocket.

Bledsoe likely won't return to his top-5 status of 2002, but he should rebound to be a solid and consistent QB2 this year. Expect 3200+ passing yards and about 18 passing TDs.

Downside by Michael Brown
Nearly everyone in Buffalo is upbeat about the hiring of head coach Mike Mularkey. One of Mularkey's main tasks is to get more out of Drew Bledsoe. Well, he can't get much less.

In 2003, Bledsoe was among the league's worst quarterbacks. His 11 touchdowns represented a career low, and his 2,860 yards were his worst since his rookie year (both excluding 2001, when he played 2 games). Bledsoe never came close to repeating his outstanding 2002 season (4,359 yards, 24 touchdowns). Is there reason to believe Bledsoe will improve upon last year's totals? Sure. Is there reason to believe he'll come anywhere near what he did two years ago? No chance.

For starters, the Bills defense is one of the league's top units. With the team 'in' more games, they will use a more balanced approach. That means more running, less passing. The combo of Travis Henry and Willis McGahee is sure to become the most prominent offensive feature. The Bills would like to see Henry gain 1,200 yards with McGahee adding another 800. With two backs accounting for 2,000 yards on the ground alone, that doesn't leave quite as much through the air.

Consider also that Mularkey wants to simplify the playbook for Bledsoe. Bledsoe had a terrible tendency of holding onto the ball for much too long last year, and had all sorts of problems running the offense. A simplified approach works best for the team, but doesn't exactly lend itself to gaudy passing numbers.

One final consideration is this: Bledsoe's never been a great fantasy quarterback. He's ranked as a starting caliber quarterback just 6 times in his 11 seasons, only once in the last four years. Odds are that he will once again finish well outside the top QBs.

Bledsoe is being drafted ahead of Joey Harrington, David Carr, Josh McCown, and Carson Palmer, all of who have MUCH higher upsides. Obviously, you don't base your whole draft on upside; but in the middle rounds, do you want the guy who is all but guaranteed for mediocrity or do you want the potential stud?