Upside by Mark Wimer
Eli Manning is a scion of one of pro-football's first families. Archie Manning put up less-than-impressive career statistics (2011/3642 for 23,911 yards, 125 TDs and 173 interceptions) - but his oldest son Peyton Manning has been a total fantasy machine (2128/3383 for 24,844 yards, 167 TDs and 110 interceptions) during the past 6 seasons. Peyton Manning has never missed a start, and has tossed 4,000+ yards passing every year since his rookie campaign.

All the talk about Eli Manning not being his brother is right: Eli Manning was willing to go into the pressure-cooker at Ole Miss (the senior Manning's Alma Mater) whereas Peyton Manning wasn't a Rebel. All Eli Manning did while playing in the SEC was to amass the following passing statistics: 2001 - 259/408 (63.5 completion %) for 2948 yards, 31 TDs and 9 interceptions; 2002 - 279/481 (58.0 completion %) for 3401 yards, 21 TDs and 15 interceptions; 2003 - 275/441 (62.4 completion %) for 3600 yards, 29 TDs and 10 interceptions. His quarterback rating was above 140 in 2 of his 3 seasons starting at Ole Miss (topping out at 148.1 last season).

Manning's receiving corps in New York is very solid. Amani Toomer (hasn't missed a game in 7 years, with over 1,000 yards receiving in 5 straight years) headlines, with Ike Hilliard and TE Jeremy Shockey in support (not to mention Tiki Barber snagging balls out of the backfield). Kerry Collins threw for 3500+ yards (4076 in 2002) in 3 out of the last 4 seasons in New York, and Manning has a better nose for the endzone and takes better care of the ball than Collins ever has during his career.

Sure, Kurt Warner is in New York - to help develop Manning as a pro quarterback. No team is more aware of Warner's concussion problems than the Giants - they were the team that knocked him out (literally) of his job as the starting QB in St. Louis, a spot he never regained. Warner has also struggled to pick up coach Coughlin's system (and to get his timing back, after a year on the bench in St. Louis) - in contrast (after an admittedly rocky start), Manning has quickly gained confidence running the system.

No-one is sure what will happen with the Giants, but I expect to see Eli Manning under center come September. 2800-3000 yards passing, with 20-22 TDs and 18-19 interceptions are what I expect to see from Manning by the end of December.

Downside by Mike Anderson
I feel sorry for my friend Mark Wimer. If you follow Mark's work, you already know that he is passionate, almost overly so, about the long term prospects of Eli Manning. And really, I might agree with him about Eli's overall career, but this time, he has to pull the proverbial rabbit out of the hat, and hype up Eli Manning's prospects for this season, and it isn't going to be pretty. Eli simply doesn't have a high side this season.

He's a rookie with a former World Champion league MVP as competition, with a coach that is perhaps the biggest stickler in the game on not making mistakes that turn the ball over. Add to that a very talented receiving core.....that can't stay healthy.

Rookies do start in the NFL. I can remember quite a few like Ryan Leaf. OK, that wasn't fair, rookie QBs do produce. If we take a study of the last 5 seasons, looking at only games where a highly drafted rookie QB starts, that stats are really quite better than might be assumed. Over the course of the 93 NFL games that fall into that search, rookie QBs averaged 181.7 passing yards and tossed 1.05 TDs per game. However, that is very pedestrian to fantasy owners, and not the stats you need from your starting QB. To say it simply, rookie QBs don't start on fantasy teams.

For Eli to start, he has to conquer two people. The first is QB Kurt Warner, who is just a couple of years removed from multiple Super Bowls and League MVPs. The second is new head coach Tom Coughlin. Coughlin is famous for ball control and never turning the ball over. Something that a rookie QB does regularly while still developing.

Let's assume that Eli does start, which if you remember given the averages, still doesn't make him fantasy starting material. His #2 WR Ike Hilliard hasn't had a fully healthy season in years, and his "All-Pro" TE Jeremy Shockey is proving to be unable to stay healthy in the NFL as well.

Eli won't start over a NFL MVP. If he does, his coach won't accept the mistakes that rookie QBs just make. And if he somehow doesn't make the mistakes common of every rookie QB, his supporting staff can't stay on the field due to injury concerns.