Upside by Chase Stuart
Fred Taylor has a career rushing average of 4.6 yards per carry. Last season, he rushed for 1,572 yards…and still, he doesn't get much love in the FFL community. He's past the days of being called Fragile Fred, as he's now played every game for each of the past two seasons. The only knock on Taylor is the lack of touchdowns. The way I see things, he's going to see a big increase in his touchdowns in 2004.

Note: In the 2001 season Taylor only played two games

As you can see, Taylor last year didn't really "lose" touchdowns to anybody else. The problem was that the Jaguars didn't rush for nearly as many touchdowns as they usually do. Last year, Jacksonville scored fewer points than any other year of Taylor's career, and just one more than they did in their expansion season of 1995.
However, 2004 is a new season. Byron Leftwich should post better numbers in his second season, and Jimmy Smith will be there for a full season. The big addition comes in the form of top ten draft pick Reggie Williams, who is expected to start immediately. I think Jacksonville will put a lot more points on the board this year, and that's going to benefit Fred Taylor.

He's their most dynamic offensive player, and they will put the ball in his hands. Last year, that happened close to 400 times and totaled nearly 2,000 yards of offense. This year, he's going to rush for 10-12 TDs. He's the complete package, and would make a fine RB1 for your fantasy squad this year.

Downside by Jason Wood
Fred Taylor is a talented back who's done an excellent job shedding the "injury prone" moniker. However, of all the backs vying for top 10 considerations, Taylor has the lowest ceiling of the lot; he's simply too limited in key areas to warrant consideration as a potential top 5 breakout player.

1. He's not a good receiver - At first blush his 48 receptions for 370 yards belie the notion that he's limited as a receiver; but when you realize that he tied the league lead with 12 dropped passes, the problem becomes evident. His play was so inconsistent last year that head coach Jack Del Rio began pulling Taylor from games in obvious passing downs, and has maintained that Taylor won't be guaranteed to play all three downs this year.



2. He's not a prolific scorer anymore - Once upon a time, Taylor was an elite back who scored prodigiously in the red zone. However, in his last two full seasons Taylor has not been as productive a scorer; scoring 15 times in 36 games. It's not that Taylor isn't targeted in the redzone; it's that he was less effective at converting those targets into scores. In 2003:
   
   
   • 10th most redzone targets (59 rushes and receiving targets)
   
   
   
   • 44th best TD-to-target ratio (8.5%)


3. Let's also look at how Taylor fared at the goal line - Of the 25 RBs who had at least 10 goal line looks last season, Taylor ranked 21st in TD percentage. Simply put, Taylor just didn't convert opportunities into scores last year. Whether that's indicative of the team's play calling, the lack of a notable passing game or an indictment on the run blocking, the fact remains that Taylor shouldn't be considered a candidate to leap back into mid-teens TD totals unless any or all of those factors are subject to improvement.

If you're drafting near the end of the first round, you may want to consider taking a WR/RB combo and letting someone else bank on the surprisingly one dimensional Taylor.