Upside by Mike Anderson
The Denver Broncos are going to produce a Top 10 fantasy running back this season. Almost every season of head coach Mike Shanahan's tenure, the Broncos have had a dominating running game. Lets look at the running backs during those 9 seasons.

• 1995 - Terrell Davis (7th round draft pick): 1,117 rushing yards, 4.7 average, 7 TDs.



• 1996 - Terrell Davis: 1,538 rushing yards, 4.5 average, 13 TDs.



• 1997 - Terrell Davis: 1,750 rushing yards, 4.7 average, 15 TDs.



• 1998 - Terrell Davis: 2,008 rushing yards, 5.1 average, 21 TDs



• 1999 - Olandis Gary (4th round draft pick): 1,159 rushing yards, 4.2 average, 7 TDs.



• 2000 - Mike Anderson (6th round draft pick): 1,500 rushing yards, 5.1 average, 15 TDs.



• 2001 - Terrell Davis: 701 rushing yards, 4.2 average, 0 TDs.



• 2002 - Clinton Portis (2nd round draft pick): 1,508 rushing yards, 5.5 average, 15 TDs.



• 2003 - Clinton Portis: 1,591 rushing yards, 5.5 average, 14 TDs.

Shanahan's running back has crossed the 1,000 yard rushing mark 8 times in his 9 seasons. Looking at his track record, Shanahan runs with a singular "stud"/primary running back. It is a 100% probability that after 9 seasons of great success, he will continue with the formula that has served him so well over the years. The system works, plug in any RB on the team, and produce a 1,000 yard rusher.

All-Pro RB Clinton Portis was traded to the Redskins in the off season, leaving a gapping hole at the position. Two-time Comeback Player of the Year Garrison Hearst was signed by the Broncos in the off season to compete for one of the most coveted positions in all of football. His competition? Little 5'7" Quentin Griffin, fullback Mike Anderson, and rookie Tatum Bell, who has shown injury concerns during the preseason.

Hearst is a proven, successful, former 1st round pick with plenty of gas in the tank. Given that he is competing against a smurf, a rookie, and a fullback, there is a strong chance that Hearst will be called upon to take the ball this season. The Bronco's system is going to produce a stud, Hearst is worth the late round flier in an attempt to strike gold.

Downside by Mark Wimer
Hearst is one of my favorite NFL players. The guy has a ton of heart and a genuine love for the game. However, Hearst is 1). 33 years old; 2). with a new team that already has a starting RB in Quentin Griffin; 3). coming off an injury-shortened 12 game season; 4). steadily declining in ypc since his return to the NFL (4.8 in 2001, 4.5 in 2002, 4.3 in 2003) and; 5). steadily declining in carries per season (252, 215, 178).

The Broncos brought Hearst in to provide an inspirational, veteran presence for their young stable of RBs Griffin, Cecil Sapp and Ahmaad Galloway all joined the team in 2003, while Tatum Bell arrived in this year's draft. Hearst also provides a fallback position in case none of the youngsters seize the top job during training camp. Hearst is not suited to be a featured back at this stage of his career - he's just too old and too beaten up for 300+ touches per season. (Clinton Portis, by comparison, had 306 with Denver in 2002, and 328 in 2003). The Broncos have to know this and would be foolish to depend on him for an entire season as the starter.

So, what you have in Garrison Hearst is a back who may be the starter for part of the season (best-case scenario for Hearst owners). I don't believe he will ever be the starter, except perhaps as a sign of respect for 2004's opening game. Quentin Griffin will see the lion's share of action in 2004. Remember, the Broncos have finished in the top 5 rushing attacks in the NFL during 6 of the last 9 seasons, and were the #2 rushing attack last year. Even with Clinton Portis toting the ball 290 times in 2003, with 38 receptions, there were 182 rushes and 32 receptions shared among the team's "other" RBs, including 94 rushes and 8 receptions put up by Quentin Griffin in replacement duty for Portis. There will be some work shared out to Hearst - it just won't be enough to count for much in fantasy terms.