Upside by Will Grant
23rd, 12th, 24th, 30th, 26th, 8th, 22nd, 23rd, 28th. That's the rushing defensive ranks of the teams that Jamal Lewis will face (in order) for the first half of the season. Only 2 defenses (Pittsburgh and Buffalo) rank above the bottom third of the league. Let me put it another way: a guy who ran for over 2000 yards last season is going to face seven of the leagues worst rushing defenses in his first nine games. How anyone can say that Lewis isn't a legitimate top-ten fantasy player is beyond me.

OK, so there's the little problem of that trial that starts after game six. That might throw a little damper on things. But let's put things in prospective. He's going to be the feature back leading right up to the trial. The trial won't take place on Sundays, so he won't miss any games. Last but certainly not least: NFL players have proven time and again that they can hire the right lawyers to get them out of these situations. If that sounds jaded, you're right. Unfortunately it's also true.

Rather than delve into a big legal debate, let's stick to the facts: The Ravens are a playoff caliber team this year, and will need their leading rusher in the game whenever possible. The Ravens are a run-first team, and will probably continue that trend with Kyle Boller and Kordell Stewart as QB1 and QB2. Lewis is fresh off a 2000-yard season, and is mentally and physically ready for this season. It's going to be hard to pass on Lewis once all of the top tier RBs are gone.

Given the drop off in talent after the first seven RBs are off the board, a fantasy owner could do a lot worse than taking Jamal Lewis at #8 overall. If you're in that position, take Lewis, handcuff him with Musa Smith or Chester Taylor, and watch Lewis propel you to some early season victories.

Downside by Marc Levin
How can you come down hard on a 2000 yard rusher? I can't - this man is still a top-8 pick in any fantasy draft. I just have him closer to "8" than "top." If you didn't know, each of the 4 other RBs that topped 2000 yards had a down rush yardage year the next year. OJ managed only 1125. TD got injured. Barry dropped to 1491. Dickerson dropped to 1234. I don't expect more than 1500 yards rushing from Lewis.

That wouldn't be a big deal - 1500 yards is a great rushing year - if he also added some receiving numbers. The team forgot Lewis in the '03 passing game as he had only 24 catches and 7.9 YPR in 2003 after a very nice 47 reception, 9.4 YPR season in 2002. If the team rediscovers his hands, then he could return to the top-5 with only 1500 rush yards, but he will need somewhere around 45-55 catches and 400 or so yards to get there. He will also need to put up double digit TDs again to buffer the losses I expect from his rush yards.

And then there is the toll of the carries - Jamal Lewis carried the ball 387 times to get that 2G. It is rare for a RB to have that many carries and follow it up with as good a year. While Eric Dickerson followed his 390 carry rookie season with a 2G rush season, just about every other RB ahead of Lewis on the all-time season carries list had a significant regression the following year. So, the historical regression of 2G yardage and 375+ carry rushers are my biggest reasons for letting Lewis fall to the 8th spot instead of taking him in the top-5.

I left for last the legal troubles. Regardless of how you feel about the case, this is a major distraction for Lewis in a month when he should only be concentrating on getting into game shape. Preseason distractions usually create a slow start to the season, and a downgrade on my charts.