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Faceoff: WR Jerry Rice - Oakland Raiders

Upside by Jason Wood
It's hard to believe that the greatest receiver to ever play the game is now a fantasy afterthought. In early draft results, Jerry Rice's average draft position is 58th among WRs. Nine of 16 Footballguys failed to rank Rice among their top 40 receivers.

I simply don't understand this. Yes, Jerry Rice had just 63 receptions for 869 yards and two touchdowns last season. However, even those numbers were good enough for 37th last year, yet people are expecting further drop-off?

Look at the context of those statistics. Rice accounted for 29% of the Raiders passing offense; the problem was that Oakland's passing game fell apart last year, ranking 29th. Yet, with either a healthy Rich Gannon or Kerry Collins at the helm this year, it's highly unlikely that Oakland's passing game won't take a major step forward in 2004.

And why does everyone assume Jerry Porter (ADP 26th) is going to fly right by Rice as the Raiders best receiver? Last season, Porter played in just nine games. But even if you pro rate his production, Rice had the better year.

  • Porter (Pro Rate) 2003 - 50 receptions for 652 yards and 2 TDs
  • Rice 2003 - 63 receptions for 869 yards and 2 TDs

And in 2002, when Porter was healthy and the Oakland offense was humming along, Rice was also the better man.

  • Porter 2002 - 51 receptions for 688 yards and 9 TDs
  • Rice 2002 - 92 receptions for 1,211 yards and 7 TDs

The bottom line is, whether you're bullish on Jerry Porter or not, Jerry Rice is a virtual lock if healthy to finish higher than his projected draft position. The team almost assuredly will improve its passing game (plus), Rice remains at best the WR1, at worst the WR2 (plus), and Rice has outperformed Porter in good times and bad (plus). Yes, he'll turn 42 this season but he was the Raiders best receiver at 40 and 41 why should that change now?


Downside by Will Grant
Jerry Rice is one of the greatest wide receivers the NFL has ever seen. He's set records that will take decades to be broken and continues to be the shining example of class, talent and professionalism that the NFL needs. He's also 42 years old and entering his 20th season in the league.

Despite being the leading receiver on the Raiders last year, Rice's stats were downright pedestrian. 869 receiving yards and 2 TDs? That's not even top 20 for receiving yards, and when combined with TDs, meant that Rice was a solid #3 WR in most fantasy leagues.

Norv Turner was brought in to turn this team around. He knows that his tenure in Oakland depends on improving on the 4-12 record that the Raiders posted last year. He's already released long time Raider Tim Brown, and publicly stated that the Wide Receiver position is wide open. Translation: 850 yard and 2 TDs isn't going to cut it as the top receiver on this team anymore.

Turner is going to install a vertical passing game, focused on pushing the ball down the field. That style of offense is better suited for the younger, and faster guys on the offense than it is for Rice who should fill more of a 'possession receiver' type of role instead. He should see a little more of then end zone this year, but his days of 7-10 TDs are probably long gone.

Now Al Davis may be crazy, but he's not stupid. He knows that Jerry Rice in the starting lineup puts bodies in the stands. So don't expect Rice to be regulated to #3 on the depth chart just yet. But by the end of the season, I would fully expect Rice to be the #3 receiver on the team beyond Jerry Porter and either Chris Cole or Ron Curry. Let other owners in your league draft Rice for nostalgia reasons. Stick with the younger Raider receivers and you'll be better off in the end.

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