Faceoff: WR Jerry Rice - Oakland Raiders
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Upside by Jason Wood
It's hard to believe that the greatest receiver to ever play the game is now
a fantasy afterthought. In early draft results, Jerry Rice's average draft position
is 58th among WRs. Nine of 16 Footballguys failed to rank Rice among their top
40 receivers.
I simply don't understand this. Yes, Jerry Rice had just 63 receptions for
869 yards and two touchdowns last season. However, even those numbers were good
enough for 37th last year, yet people are expecting further drop-off?
Look at the context of those statistics. Rice accounted for 29% of the Raiders
passing offense; the problem was that Oakland's passing game fell apart last
year, ranking 29th. Yet, with either a healthy Rich Gannon or Kerry Collins
at the helm this year, it's highly unlikely that Oakland's passing game won't
take a major step forward in 2004.
And why does everyone assume Jerry Porter (ADP 26th) is going to fly right
by Rice as the Raiders best receiver? Last season, Porter played in just nine
games. But even if you pro rate his production, Rice had the better year.
- Porter (Pro Rate) 2003 - 50 receptions for 652 yards and 2 TDs
- Rice 2003 - 63 receptions for 869 yards and 2 TDs
And in 2002, when Porter was healthy and the Oakland offense was humming along,
Rice was also the better man.
- Porter 2002 - 51 receptions for 688 yards and 9 TDs
- Rice 2002 - 92 receptions for 1,211 yards and 7 TDs
The bottom line is, whether you're bullish on Jerry Porter or not, Jerry Rice
is a virtual lock if healthy to finish higher than his projected draft position.
The team almost assuredly will improve its passing game (plus), Rice remains
at best the WR1, at worst the WR2 (plus), and Rice has outperformed Porter in
good times and bad (plus). Yes, he'll turn 42 this season but he was the Raiders
best receiver at 40 and 41 why should that change now?
Downside by Will Grant
Jerry Rice is one of the greatest wide receivers the NFL has ever seen. He's
set records that will take decades to be broken and continues to be the shining
example of class, talent and professionalism that the NFL needs. He's also 42
years old and entering his 20th season in the league.
Despite being the leading receiver on the Raiders last year, Rice's stats were
downright pedestrian. 869 receiving yards and 2 TDs? That's not even top 20
for receiving yards, and when combined with TDs, meant that Rice was a solid
#3 WR in most fantasy leagues.
Norv Turner was brought in to turn this team around. He knows that his tenure
in Oakland depends on improving on the 4-12 record that the Raiders posted last
year. He's already released long time Raider Tim Brown, and publicly stated
that the Wide Receiver position is wide open. Translation: 850 yard and 2 TDs
isn't going to cut it as the top receiver on this team anymore.
Turner is going to install a vertical passing game, focused on pushing the
ball down the field. That style of offense is better suited for the younger,
and faster guys on the offense than it is for Rice who should fill more of a
'possession receiver' type of role instead. He should see a little more of then
end zone this year, but his days of 7-10 TDs are probably long gone.
Now Al Davis may be crazy, but he's not stupid. He knows that Jerry Rice in
the starting lineup puts bodies in the stands. So don't expect Rice to be regulated
to #3 on the depth chart just yet. But by the end of the season, I would fully
expect Rice to be the #3 receiver on the team beyond Jerry Porter and either
Chris Cole or Ron Curry. Let other owners in your league draft Rice for nostalgia
reasons. Stick with the younger Raider receivers and you'll be better off in
the end.
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