Upside by Chase Stuart
Justin McCareins "broke out" last year, ranking twenty-second among all wide receivers. He's followed the typical career path for a young wide receiver, and now moves to New York. Whereas before he was playing second fiddle to Derrick Mason, he'll now be teaming with Santana Moss. McCareins should have a greater role in the Jets offense in 2004 than he would have had in Tennessee. At the bare minimum, McCareins will provide an upgrade over the 640 yards of a washed up Curtis Conway. He'll represent a clear upgrade at WR2, and you can be sure that the Jets will take advantage of his abilities.

What's he got going for him? The Jets don't have a true goalline receiver. Moss' great leaping ability made him the Jets red zone target by default, but Chad Pennington will love having a big man when the defense starts getting tough. Pennington doesn't have the arm strength that McNair did, but he's a slightly more accurate quarterback. Expect to see McCareins' yards per catch drop down a bit, but he should approach 1,000 yards this year. The Jets saw Santana Moss' numbers drop when he started seeing double and triple teams last year, but no one picked up the slack. There simply wasn't anyone talented enough to force coverage away from Moss. The Jets saw this was a big area of need on offense, and traded a second round pick to get McCareins. So far, that early returns have been very positive on his transformation to New York in minicamp.

The Jets offense returns all their starters from a year ago, when they were quietly productive. New York's passing attack has finished in the top quarter of the league the past two years in yards per attempt. In Pennington's last sixteen starts, he's thrown for four touchdowns thrice and three touchdowns another two times. At 6-2, 215, McCareins will be by far the biggest wide receiver on the field. With Pennington's great accuracy, you can be sure he'll be looking for his big target quite a lot in 2004.

Downside by Michael Brown
Last year, Justin McCareins enjoyed a breakthrough season. He amassed career highs in nearly every category and was the perfect deep threat for Steve McNair. This past offseason saw McCareins traded from Tennessee to the Jets. That simple fact alone will prevent him from putting up the sort of numbers he compiled last year.

"But McCareins is still a WR2 with a good quarterback," you might argue. While that's true, he's leaving a team that threw for 4,031 yards and 30 touchdowns to join a team that threw for 3,524 yards and 20 touchdowns. That's a drop-off of nearly 500 passing yards and a whopping TEN touchdowns! Sure, the Jets offense should be better with Chad Pennington for a full season, but who thinks that they will put up similar numbers to Tennessee? McCareins' stats will almost definitely suffer, simply because of math. The Titans evolved over the years into a pass-heavy offense, something the Jets are not and likely never will be under the current coordinator/head coach.

Nothing against Pennington, but his arm strength is nowhere near McNair. That severely hurts the chances of McCareins hauling in all those deep bombs like he did last year. And if he's not catching deep bombs, he's not exactly Tim Brown going over the middle.

Another factor working against McCareins is the 'surprise' factor. McCareins was known, but it wasn't as if coordinators had to go out of their way to look out for him. Now that he's enjoyed a very productive season, he won't be sneaking up on anyone. He is a starter from Day 1, and coordinators will plan accordingly. McCareins is now a target, rather than a piece of the machine, and no one has ever seen how well he can respond to such a scenario in the NFL.

Speaking of coordinators, McCareins has a new one. And head coach. And we already mentioned the quarterback. There was a familiarity that's gone now. New surroundings are sometimes better, but it's difficult to argue that he's better off as a #2 in New York rather than a #2 in Tennessee.