Faceoff: Which of these QBs is most likely to produce like a Top 10 fantasy QB in 2004?
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Mark Brunell by Jason Wood
Mark Brunell isn't going to be confused for Peyton Manning. He's never been
the type of gun-slinging quarterback who was given free reign to throw 25-30
touchdowns or regularly produce 4,000 yard passing seasons. In fact, he's had
more seasons throwing less than 3,000 yards than he has throwing more than 4,000
yards.
Yet, I believe Mark Brunell has a fair shot at finishing among the 10 best
fantasy QBs this year as he embarks on a new chapter in his career. Joe Gibbs,
arguably the best coach in modern NFL history, has returned to guide the Redskins
back into playoff contention. Gibbs and his all-star staff aren't looking to
rebuild, they're looking to win now. And who did Gibbs hand pick to guide the
Redskins' renaissance? None other than Mark Brunell.
What's most interesting about the decision to bring Brunell on board (and pay
him a hefty contract and signing bonus) was that the team already had a talented
young QB in Patrick Ramsey. Yet, Gibbs wanted a veteran hand to steer the ship.
Despite the Redskins record, this is not a team without talent. Brunell inherits
a deep receiving corps led by Laveranues Coles and augmented by Gardner, Jacobs,
McCants and Thrash. The offensive line has all the pieces to be dominant, and
one has to believe that 'Papa Hog' Joe Bugel will have them playing to their
potential. And as if that weren't enough, Brunell gets to hand the ball off
to Clinton Portis; if that doesn't keep defenses honest, nothing will.
For those who think Brunell is too old to have a breakout year statistically,
let me remind you that Rich Gannon was a journeyman until finding a home in
Oakland. And, to those who think Joe Gibbs won't have the Redskins executing
on all cylinders, let me remind you of a few things:
- Three Super Bowl rings with three different QBs and three different starting
RBs
- In 14 seasons, Gibbs' teams have AVERAGED 3,863 passing yards and 24 touchdown
passes
Don't bet against Gibbs or Brunell this year. You can roster Brunell as a QB2
but don't be surprised if he's your QB1 by year end.
Joey Harrington by Mark Wimer
Harrington is primed to take off because the Lions have surrounded him with
a nice mix of youthful potential and veteran experience. How's the tandem of
Charles Rogers and Roy Williams grab you? With Tai Streets and Az-Zahir Hakim
around to provide veteran leadership, Detroit's WR corps heading into 2004 compares
favorably with any other NFL stable. Young Kevin Jones is the latest addition
to the Lions' RB pool, joining youthful Artose Pinner and veterans Shawn Bryson
and Olandis Gary. Jones has good hands and should be productive in the Lion's
passing game - giving Harrington an important dump-off receiver coming out of
the backfield.
The Lion's offensive line was the best in the NFL last season in terms of sacks
allowed (a mere 11), and they added one of the best FA OL in the 2004 pool --
LG Damien Woody. Another veteran was added at RG, David Loverne. LT Jeff Backus
and RT Stockar McDougle are both former 1st round selections, now with years
of NFL experience, and C Dominic Raiola is a cagey veteran who was originally
a second-rounder. The line has good depth, too.
Finally, let's look at Harrington himself. Even with a thin and mediocre WR
stable in 2003, Harrington improved his completion percentage by 5.7 points
from his rookie campaign to his sophomore season. He threw 17 TDs in 2003, and
had 4 games with 2+ scoring throws. He did toss 22 interceptions (not a solid
TD to INT ration), but remember how few quality targets he had for most of 2003.
Only the "Great" Bill Schroeder played all 16 games, and Az-Zahir
Hakim struggled with injuries even when he did make it onto the field (14 games).
There was a rash of injuries among the back-ups, too.
Two years and 30 games of experience under his belt; a restocked and/or now-healthy
set of weapons at his disposal in the passing game; a great OL to protect him;
these things indicate that this is the year Harrington will produce quality
numbers. 3200-3300 yards passing, 22-24 TDs and 16-17 interceptions are his
baseline projection in my book, but if things break right for Harrington (say
Roy Williams turns in an Anquan Bolden-esque rookie campaign, or Kevin Jones
does an imitation of Marshall Faulk during his peak, circa 1998-2001) he could
potentially crack the top 10 among fantasy QBs There is a lot of youthful potential
on the Detroit offense (something we couldn't say during Harrington's first
two years in the league) - that happy circumstance could propel Harrington to
an elite level in 2004.
Carson Palmer by Will Grant
While FBG Chase Stuart might disagree, I think Carson Palmer has some late round
value at QB. Sure he's never started a game, and begins the year with a ton
of expectation on his shoulders. He also has a great offense to work with him,
and he's spent the last year learning an offense that put up top 10 numbers
in 2003 with Jon Kitna at the helm.
Palmer was the consensus #1 overall draft choice by the Bengals in 2003. He
promptly assumed the primary backup role to Jon Kitna and never saw the field
the entire season. Kitna cranked out fantastic numbers as the full time starter,
going 324-520 3591 passing yards, 26 TDs and only 15 INTs. He finished in the
top 10 for completions, yards, yards per attempt and passing TDs as well. Kitna
is a solid but unspectacular quarterback, and took many people by surprise last
year. If he can put up those numbers, Palmer should be able to as well.
Palmer has a great supporting cast to help him on his way. Chad Johnson is
a top five wide receiver, and Peter Warrick and Kelly Johnson are solid #2 and
3 receivers. The offensive line protecting Palmer is fairly solid, and RBs Rudi
Johnson and Chris Perry should keep defenses honest enough to allow the receivers
to get open. If Palmer can endure the 1st year lumps that he will take during
the early part of the season, he should settle down and post better numbers
down the stretch. When fantasy teams are heading into the crucial weeks near
the end of the season, and the playoffs, Palmer could be a nice surprise if
you have him on your roster.
Byron Leftwich by Andy Hicks
Last year Byron Leftwich ranked 18th. Playing a full season with just adequate
improvement will see him vault into the Top 10. Byron Leftwich started his NFL
career throwing to Matthew Hatchette and J J Stokes, yet still managed to finish
the season with a completion percentage of 57.2%. This ranks as the 2nd best
ever by a rookie quarterback, behind only Dan Marino (58.4%). Marino had three
Pro Bowl receivers at his disposal. Leftwich had one and that was only when
Jimmy Smith returned from his enforced 4 week suspension. Leftwich also ranked
4th in passing yards for a rookie QB, despite playing only 13 full games and
having a conservative offense with below average players (excluding Jimmy Smith)
This season.
Reggie Williams was drafted with the 9th overall pick and will be expected to
take over the #2 slot from Troy Edwards. Another big guy in Ernest Wilford was
drafted in the 4th round. Leftwich will enter his first full training camp after
having spent countless days and hours studying film and working on his game.
This hard work should result in rapid improvement.
Leftwich is a classic drop back passer. He has a will to win. At Marshall he
played on a broken leg, having to be carried by two offensive lineman after
a 45 yard completion. His red zone quarterback rating last year was a phenomenal
95.4% and his 4th quarter completion percentage topped 60%. He has the arm,
pocket presence and skill to be a big time fantasy QB. Some quarterbacks are
easy to pick apart, with Leftwich you need to only read his draft report to
realize it wasn't so easy.
- 'He's not a good runner' - He's better than Peyton Manning
- 'Needs to take a little heat off his short passes' - NFL receivers should
be able to grab these missiles.
Whilst I recommend against installing Leftwich as your starter, getting him
as one of the first back ups will be rewarded by one of the great up and coming
NFL and fantasy talents.
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