Upside by Chase Stuart
Marshall Faulk led the NFL in either yards from scrimmage or total touchdowns in four straight seasons, from 1998-2001. While Faulk is no longer the best player in football, he still is one of the top players in the game. Even in a down year for him, Faulk finished strong: Over the last eight weeks, he scored 153 fantasy points. Think Faulk is being phased out of the offense? The last half of the season, Marshall totaled 200 touches. He rushed for 100 or more yards in five of six consecutive games in November and December, something he never did before in his Rams career. While there are many rumors about Faulk's health right now, there's not much hard evidence behind it. Additionally, he seemed fine at the end of 2003, when the Rams rode him down the stretch.

In 2002, the Rams passed the ball a whopping 292 times more than they ran it, leading to their first losing season since Mike Martz arrived. Last year, St. Louis passed "just" 189 more times than they ran. This shift in offensive philosophy can only be considered as great news for Faulk fans. The last eight games, Faulk carried 167 times-and Marc Bulger passed for over 240 yards just once. In their playoff game, Faulk touched the ball 28 times for 131 yards and a score against a stout Panthers D. Faulk is becoming the centerpiece of the offense again, and should get twenty touches a game. A healthy Faulk will take those opportunities to finish among the top five in yards from scrimmage. Touchdowns? While not built like Tommy Vardell, only Priest Holmes and T.J. Duckett ran for more TDs per yard last year than Faulk (who is averaging 1.3 TDs per game with Martz as Head Coach). He may be old, but there are precious few players who get all the touches, score TDs and have big game capabilities. Marshall Faulk is one of those players. Lastly, never underestimate the importance of a strong start: dome games against Arizona, Atlanta and New Orleans the first three weeks.

Downside by Mark Wimer
Since Marshall Faulk became a Ram, his total production (excepting the huge 12 - 26 leap in TDs from 1999 - 2000) has declined steadily each season. He has produced less total yards from scrimmage every season since 1999. His average yards per rush and average yards per catch have declined each and every season. He has not scored more than 11 TDs in two years.
Consider the following data from www.pro-football-reference.com:

Part of the decline is attributable to Faulk's increasingly fragile health - he is beginning to show the signs of age (his birthday is 2/26/1973). Part of the decline is due to Mike Martz's inexplicable but increasing reluctance to rely on #28. Couple the obvious decline of Marshall Faulk with the reality that the Ram's 1st pick in the draft (#24) went to select RB Steven Jackson of Oregon State, and the handwriting on the wall is clear - Faulk is in the twilight of his career, as far as the Rams are concerned. Faulk and Kurt Warner dominated the NFL landscape in 1999-2001. Warner's was a June 1st cap casualty in 2004; Marc Bulger relies more heavily on Torry Holt than Marshall Faulk; and Faulk's heir apparent was drafted in April.

Faulk's obvious downward spiral and the team's new direction dictates a projection of 800-900/7-8 rushing with 200-300/1-2 receiving in 2004. That projection warrants #26 on my board.