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Face Off - WR Peter Warrick - Cincinnati Bengals

Upside by Chase Stuart
Peter Warrick set career highs in touchdowns, receptions and receiving yards in 2003. It's amazing what having a competent QB and WR will do for a player. Clearly, Warrick benefited from playing with Jon Kitna and Chad Johnson, as he finished as the sixteenth best WR in fantasy football last year. Warrick's 143 rushing yards led all WRs in that category, and he's a good bet to get a lot of carries in 2004 as well.

With a young QB, it's likely that Palmer will rely on Warrick as his safety option. Cincinnati doesn't have great receiving RBs or TEs, so Warrick's short routes and great running after the catch ability make him a likely target. Additionally, Warrick is the veteran member on the team. Warrick's fifty-four career starts are more than Chad Johnson (31), Rudi Johnson (five), Carson Palmer (zero), Chris Perry (zero), Kelley Washington (3) and TE Matt Schobel (eleven) have in their careers combined. Warrick is the veteran presence on this offense, and I don't think he's going to see his role decreased.

Warrick finished third in the league last year in red zone targets. Warrick's catlike quickness makes him very valuable in the red zone, where it's difficult for most receivers to get open. He could easily improve on the seven touchdowns from last year, and could challenge for 1,000 yards.

Warrick does have Kelley Washington breathing down his neck, a rookie QB and a difficult schedule to face. However, I expect the Bengals to continue to rely on Warrick, as they were successful doing so last year. He's the perfect complement to a big, strong WR like Chad Johnson, and should catch a lot of passes again this season. He's barely being drafted in the top forty in most leagues, and should be a steal for everyone on draft day this year. Don't forget, he's a very talented player who was once a top five draft pick. Warrick will hold off Washington for at least another year, and continue to grow as a player.


Downside by Jason Wood
Peter Warrick is a solid yet unspectacular receiver who managed to put together a top 20 fantasy finish last season despite failing to eclipse the 900 yard mark. Warrick's success (he finished 16th) was primarily due to his seven touchdown receptions and 143 yards rushing.

In early mock drafts, Warrick is going 38th among receivers; which appears about right in my view. Last year should be considered the anomaly. After four years in the league, all four as a starter mind you, he's failed to come close to 1,000 yards receiving in a season. As troubling, his career YPC of 10.6 confirms that he lacks the speed or separation necessary to put together a truly impressive campaign. Warrick is the kind of player who could catch 90 passes and still fall short of 1,000 yards.

While you have to respect his touchdown production (13 touchdowns over the last two seasons), you can't count on that continuing this year for several reasons. One, Carson Palmer takes over at QB and growing pains are to be expected. Two, Chad Johnson lines up opposite Warrick and there is NO question that Johnson is a transcendent receiver; he's the team's first option. Three, Kelley Washington appears ready to compete for a starting spot this year. Don't be surprised to see Washington, a faster, taller and more athletic receiver, get the nod as the team looks to exploit the deep passing attack more in 2004.

Could Warrick have another fringe top 20 season? Possibly, but remember that in four years as a starter for the Bengals, he finished 31st, 51st and 49th the other three seasons. With Washington hot on his trail to start; and Warrick's lack of speed making him an ideal slot receiver, consider Warrick a fantasy WR3 at best.

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