Upside by Cathy Fazio
Was last year's emergence of Santana Moss as a top NFL WR simply an anomaly, a flash in the pan so to speak? Or will he be able to follow his 74 reception (for 1,105 yards), 10 touchdown season with the same kind of production. Last year, Moss was a great free agent pickup in most fantasy leagues. He won't be available on the wire this year. But those who draft him should find that he will perform for them solidly week in and week out.

Looking at Moss's stats from last year, he started out rather inconsistently. He opened the season with 3 receptions for 12 yards against the Washington Redskins. But week 2 saw 5 receptions for 142 yards against the Miami Dolphins. It was up and down for him like that at the beginning of the year. By December he had become consistent averaging 5 receptions for 60 yards a week. It is also of note that it was after Chad Pennington returned from injury that Moss settled into his more consistent production. With Pennington at the helm for the upcoming season, this only bolsters the thought that Moss is slated for the same type of numbers. Footballguys currently has him ranked as the number 12 receiver projecting him with 66 receptions for 950 yards and 7 touchdowns, which would be completely in line with his production at the end of last year.

The addition of Justin McCareins from the Tennessee Titans provides the New York Jets with an additional threat at wide receiver that last year they so desperately lacked. A solid WR2 will open up more opportunities for Moss that simply weren't there last year.

The chips are in place for Santana Moss to capitalize and perhaps even improve on his breakout performance from last season.

Downside by Aaron Rudnicki
Santana Moss had a breakout season last year at a time when many young WRs finally figure things out, his 3rd season. He was probably waiver wire material in some leagues early on, but eventually ended up rewarding owners that believed in him with a 7-game TD scoring streak. That type of production was huge and likely helped many teams earn a playoff spot. However, he was unable to maintain that pace and only put up 27 receptions, 312 yards, and 1 TD in his final 6 games. Those numbers are even more disappointing when you consider that Pennington was healthy and Moss was averaging 8 targets a game as the Jets go-to WR.

Moss is one of the smaller WRs in the league at only 5'10", 185 lbs, and is not ideally suited to the #1 WR role. He is not physical enough to match up and gain separation from #1 CBs and not tall enough to be a consistent red zone threat. Part of the reason why the Jets struggled so much on offense last year was because they didn't have a tall, physical WR to use in the red zone, which is why Justin McCareins was brought in for a 2nd round pick via a trade with the Titans. McCareins had a breakout year last year as well and the Jets gave him a big contract. Thus, Moss will have to compete with another quality WR this year and will probably not get as many targets as he did in 2003. Consider that the Jets also plan to commit heavily to the running game with Curtis Martin and Lamont Jordan, and things become even dicier for Santana.

Bottom line
He's a talented WR who is one of the best weapons in the game with the ball in his hands, but there are legitimate concerns about his (lack of) size and durability. With increased attention from opposing defenses and more competition for receptions this year, it is likely that he'll regress from his top-10 showing a year ago and finish somewhere in the #20-#25 range.