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Face Off - RB Stephen Davis - Carolina Panthers

Upside by David Shick
DeShaun Foster my fanny. Every year we fantasy nuts become so bored in the off season that we fall into the trap of speculating about who will steal carries from whom. Foster is a good backup RB. He may be a great one. People tend to get stars in their eyes when a backup has a few shining moments. This case is no different.

Let's be real clear here. Stephen Davis is a monster RB in the NFL. During his last three full seasons (ignoring the Spurrier fiasco in Washington) Davis has averaged nearly 1400 yards rushing with last season being his best. Compare the rushing stat lines. Davis: 318-1444-8 (4.54 avg) Foster: 113-429-0 (3.80 avg). Yes, even if Foster "steals" a full 25% of the carries in Carolina (again) Davis is still a stud RB in the NFL.

The Panthers are a ball-control grind-it-out football team. Stephen Davis is still the man in Carolina. Head coach Fox hasn't indicated otherwise in any interview or discussion. In fact, the Panthers have been working out Foster with their return units on the special teams. Is this a sign that its time for a changing of the guard? Hardly. To boot, Foster has commented during the off season that he's content to be the back up and he knows his time will come eventually.

The only solid argument to stand on against Davis not being the featured RB and keeping the lion's share of carries is that he'll lose time to injury. Every player in the NFL is an injury risk. It's as simple as that. Somehow, we tend to worry a bit more about it when there's a capable backup in town. I understand this fear. Its feels logical, but in reality we know it's not.


Downside by Chase Stuart
Stephen Davis was a monster last season, rushing for 1,444 yards. He finished seventh in the league in rushing-but just twelfth in fantasy points. The problem for Davis is that he simply is too one-dimensional. He adds nothing in the receiving game, where most of the stud backs make their name. He has just 301 receiving yards the past two seasons, and don't expect that number to rise as he turns thirty years old.

Davis averaged 4.5 yards per carry in 2003, well above his 4.0 average from the previous three seasons. The Panthers offensive line regressed in the offseason, and I expect that to impact Davis. However, perhaps nothing will hurt him more than the rise of the young DeShaun Foster. Foster's natural talent along with his playoff performances, leave him in line for a lot more carries this year. It's certainly feasible that Stephen Davis will have around 250 carries this year, splitting time with Foster.

Some players can be stars with just 250 carries, but not Davis. Based off his career yards per carry average of 4.25, Davis would rush for about 1,060 yards on that many carries. That would probably land him outside of the top 20 RBs.

Davis lacks a lot of upside, compared to multi-threat backs like Curtis Martin, Tiki Barber and Duce Staley. He doesn't have the youth of a Julius or Kevin Jones, Michael Bennett or Brian Westbrook. Davis is an aging RB, coming off a career season. He's got a tremendous backup RB pushing him for carries, and a coach that wants see Foster shine. Carolina will have no problem resting Davis up for the playoffs, where they'll need him most. The future in Carolina is Delhomme, Foster and Steve Smith-and I think we might see that sooner, rather than later. When you consider Davis' injury history, he isn't simply a "safe" pick. He's a pick without a ton of upside, and more downside that I'd want with a second round pick.

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