Upside by Jason Wood
From 1998-2002, Terrell Owens was as potent an offensive force as there was in the league, finishing among the top 3 at his position four of five seasons (1999 was injury riddled). Last year, amid chaos and turmoil in San Francisco, Owens had what most considered a subpar year, finishing 12th. Just to reiterate how good a player Owens is, his "subpar" season equated to 80 receptions, 1,102 yards and 9 touchdowns.

So at 30 years old, changing teams and coming off his worst season in five years, warning signs should be sounding, right? Not so fast.

Let's be clear about something, the GENERAL rule of thumb is that WRs who change teams do not fare as well the following season. That is indisputable. However, every situation is unique, and there are exceptions to every rule. Laveranues Coles put up consecutive 1,200-yard seasons despite moving from the Jets to the Redskins. Certainly this is a rare occurrence, but the savvy fantasy owner will recognize that Terrell Owens is just as likely, if not more likely, to be an exception to the rule.

Look back at the annals of NFL history and ask yourself how many times a WR of Owens' caliber changed teams while still in his prime? You would be hard pressed to come up with more than a handful of examples, and none were as accomplished as Owens (15th all time in touchdowns, 36th all time in receptions).

Combine Owens talent level, which is transcendent, with the fact that he's MOTIVATED. Owens wanted nothing else but to play in Philadelphia, with Donovan McNabb, and he got his wish. As importantly, he also got a hefty contract extension that again places him among the highest paid at his position. And Philadelphia enters 2004 as one of the favorites to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl. Add to all this the fact that the Eagles' offensive system is extremely similar to the WCO run in San Francisco, and Owens' new situation is anything but typical. You will see the best from Owens this season; mark it down.

Downside by Marc Levin
For a receiver annually drafted as one of the first three WRs, Owens going to a team with a good quarterback and a dire need for a receiver seems ideal. Eagles' fans have been screaming for a good receiver for years. No wonder folks are typically drafting Owens as one of the top-5 WRs in 2004 redrafts. I wouldn't spend that high a price for Owens. I see three problems with taking Owens that high:

1. Fantasy History - the poor fantasy history of receivers changing team is well documented. If you choose to reject the overwhelming historical data , then words here won't convince you.



2. Team's History - HC Andy Reid and QB Donovan McNabb created an efficient passing game with McNabb averaging over 200 pass yards a game for the last four years while failing to ever produce a 70 catch or 900 yard receiver. The team distributes the ball to a variety of options at RB (85-95 catches a year) and TE (40 - 50 catches a year). For Owens to receive the 90+ catches he is used to, a distinct alteration of the team's passing philosophy will have to occur. I don't get the impression Reid is willing to reinvent the wheel for Owens. He expects Owens to adjust to his scheme.



3. Owens's History - How long will it be before Owens implodes because he isn't seeing the ball enough? Do you believe he will be happy with 4 or 5 targets a game? I have the feeling that, unlike in San Francisco, Owens will not be able to get in McNabb's or Reid's face without serious repercussions. Let's also not forget Owens is a notoriously slow fantasy starter. How will his and the fans' attitudes be if he is not putting up numbers the first few weeks?

Given these factors, expecting Owens to improve on his #9 WR ranking in 2003 is risky. I'll take a safer WR such as Ward, Chad Johnson, Coles, Mason, or a RB2/3, instead of the risk Owens brings with a pick in the first 30 players.