Face Off - RB Tiki Barber - New York Giants
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Upside by Mike Anderson
First, Tiki Barber is the most talented back on the Giants. He possesses superior
running and receiving abilities, and is the most complete back on his team.
I know the down side to this argument is going to point out new head coach Tom
Coughlin, and his desire for the power running game.
Actually, what Coughlin is known for is ball control. Coughlin is a stickler
for not turning the ball over, and using big backs in certain sets. Given this
new ball control philosophy, expect the total carries of the Giants to climb
from the 387 in 2003. In eight seasons as the head coach of the Jaguars, Coughlin
teams averaged 450 carries a season, only once dropping below the 400 carry
mark. So lets see how this will impact Tiki Barber going forward:
Last season, Barber had 278 rushes, 1156 carries, for an average of 4.6 yards
a carry, 5 rushing TDs, 69 receptions for 461 yards, and a receiving TD. The
Giants as a whole had 387 carries. The top fantasy backs in the game last season
were Priest Holmes with 320 rushes, Ahman Green with 355 rushes, LaDainian Tomlinson
with 313 rushes, and Jamal Lewis with 387 carries.
Looking at the high side of Tiki Barber, I am ready and willing to concede
that he will lose carries to someone on the team (Ron Dayne, etc). However,
last season, the Giants rushed 387 times. Historically, Coughlin teams rush
an average of 450 carries a year. Assume a 16% increase in total carries for
the Giants this season.
In 2003, Barber had 72% of the Carries for the Giants. However, even if we
expect a decrease in that percentage this season as Coughlin implements his
ground control game with bigger backs, and Barber only gets 60% of the carries
this season, he will still get 270 carries. Exactly what he had last season.
So, under the assumption that Barber loses a ton of carries to other backs,
the total carries for the team will rise dramatically, giving Barber virtually
the exact same number of carries as last season. In the worst case scenario,
Barber can't get any worse. Expect Barber to perform exactly as he has in the
past, and easily out perform years past if he maintains the same 72% of the
total carries.
Downside by Andy Hicks
Tiki Barber has been one of the most consistent backs over the last 4 years,
but how will the arrival of Tom Coughlin affect this situation? Coughlin quite
often used a 1-2 punch for his running back position at Jacksonville and has
threatened to bring in Ron Dayne from Jim Fassel's doghouse. "I have made
it very clear to him if he proves to me he is committed, he will get that opportunity,"
Coughlin said of Dayne. Obviously the Giants want to ease the burden placed
on Tiki Barbers shoulders. Whether Ron Dayne is the man to do that is another
question.
Over the last 4 years Tiki Barber's workload has increased dramatically. In
2000 he was only carrying 47% of the Giants running plays, last year that was
up to 77%. It is not inconceivable to think Barbers carries will drop to around
200 this year. If Ron Dayne can walk and chew gum at the same time, then it's
more than likely he'll be given the goal line job as well.
Next we move onto one of the more contentious issues surrounding Tiki Barber,
fumbles. To call Tom Coughlin a disciplinarian is a dramatic understatement.
How many fumbles can Tiki make before being made an example of? The coaching
staff have worked hard in the off season to correct this perceived flaw in Barbers
game, but come game time how much latitude does he get?
Barbers 4.4 yards per carry flatters the below average Giants offensive line.
Two ex-Browns and an ex-Charger were added in free agency. This is an upgrade?
More like shuffling deckchairs on the Titanic. Drafting the father of Coughlin's
grandchild, Chris Snee could be another issue surrounding the line as well.
Continued poor play by the line is going to make Barbers task even more difficult..
Whilst Tiki Barber should offer a good season, his upside is limited. The downside
is much more of an issue and whilst I would draft him if he fell into the late
second/early third round, I would explore other options before doing so.
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