Upside by Mike Anderson
TJ Duckett is hungry. To use his own words: "Things have been OK my first two years but, with where I was picked and what I feel I'm supposed to be doing, well, I'm supposed to be better than just OK. You're not supposed to settle for (mediocre). Honestly, I've been a little disappointed in myself. I don't want to look back on this year and be disappointed again. " So that he doesn't "disappoint", he reported to camp 2 weeks early this spring lighter than he's been in years. "He's been working real hard," HC Jim Mora said. "He's figured out the league and what he needs to do to get his body ready."

For fantasy owners, this can only be music to our collective ears. He's hungry, and desires to really show something this season. In 2003, Duckett rushed a mere 197 times for 779 yards, or 4 yards a carry, with a whopping 11 TDs!

What should really accelerate Duckett's value this season is the new West Coast offense that operates by getting out in front of the other team quickly. Once out in front, Duckett will be the featured runner for an offense that is looking to hold the lead, and wear down the other side. Duckett's big bruising running style will fit that role perfectly.

His competition, RB Warrick Dunn, is still nursing the surgery he had on a torn ligament of his left toes 7 months ago. In Dunn's absence last season, Duckett was able to amass great stats, and a fantasy owner's dream in touchdowns. Although Dunn is slotted to return as the starter once healthy (and that health has yet to really be tested), Duckett will easily get enough carries to put up 800-1000 yards and 8 TDs. Lets assume that Duckett will simply split time, and see the lower of the two carry counts between him and Dunn. He put up almost 800 yards in under 200 carries last season, figure he will have at least that many carries just splitting time, his stats can only go up this season. With the short yardage work, and the late in the game "wear down" work, Duckett could see another 11-12 TDs this season.

Downside by Cathy Fazio
T.J. Duckett may be a big bruising running back and in another system other than the Atlanta Falcons, he may have found himself as the focal point of a team's rushing attack.
Last season Duckett rushed for 779 yards and scored 11 touchdowns. Not bad for a running back who was splitting carries. But will 2004 hold the same for Duckett? I am not sure that it will.

Last season Warrick Dunn tore a ligament in his foot in November, opening up opportunities for Duckett that weren't there earlier in the season. The 5 games that Dunn was out, were Duckett's most consistent fantasy scoring weeks. With Warrick Dunn back in the picture, Duckett may be destined to be splitting carries and be relegated to the short yardage and goal line carries.

Consideration also has to be given to the fact that the revamped offense that new head coach Jim Mora is bringing is likely to be a better fit with Dunn's strengths rather than Duckett's strengths.

And will a healthy Michael Vick, known for his rushing ability diminish the opportunities that Duckett has to score touchdowns? This is a serious limitation for Duckett.

Footballguys currently has him projected for 800 rushing yards and 7 touchdowns. Making him the 27th running back on the board. He does represent some value because he will see the ball and find the end zone. But just be careful not to look at last year's stats and think that he is a lock to repeat them.