Tatum Bell by Andy Hicks
The finger injury suffered by Tatum Bell hurt his chances at winning the starting spot outright by week 1 of theseason. It does not mean however, that he will not end up being the most productive Denver RB by the end of the season. Quentin Griffin and Garrison Hearst will get first bite of the cherry, but Bell did not get picked by Denver in the 2nd round to sit on the bench. Consider that each of the last 4 leading rushers for Denver (Clinton Portis, Mike Anderson, Olandis Gary and Terrell Davis) cracked 1000 yards in their rookie season. The last two, Anderson and Portis, made 1500. Mike Shanahan will give Bell every opportunity to win the job.

Quentin Griffin is the starter for now, but he'll need to be impressive to keep the job. Griffin only averaged 3.7 yards a carry last year. At his size (5-7 / 195 lbs) durability could be another concern. He may start in Week 1, but he won't be there by the end of the season.

Next to get past is Garrison Hearst. At this stage of his career Hearst will not threaten for the starting job unless something goes drastically wrong. Most 33 year old running backs moving to a new team are not considered fantasy gold. The 12 year veteran is a tough customer, but all he can look forward to is keeping Bell or Griffin fresh.

Onto Bell himself. Tatum Bell is fast, 4.34 fast. He has the strength to run inside and has good instincts and vision. All of his draft report flaws are coachable (too high in stance, runs with the ball too low, not a natural receiver). Because of Bells injury he is dropping in draft standings so not only will he be the most productive RB in Denver this year, he'll represent great value.

Quentin Griffin by Mark Wimer
The Denver Broncos traded away Clinton Portis because they felt that they were set with their next featured back - that player would be Quentin Griffin. Griffin has been practicing with the first team during Denver's minicamps, and is the heir apparent at this point in the preseason. He showed enough in games vs. Indianapolis (28/136/0, for a 4.8 yards-per-carry average, with 24 yards receiving) and Green Bay (21/74/0 rushing and 21 yards receiving) in the waning moments of the 2003 regular season to allow the departure of Portis (and his super-sized contract) to Washington.

With a fine veteran like Garrison Hearst to advise him, train with him, and help him to grow during 2004, Griffin is poised to be the Bronco's next big-time fantasy back. Coach Shanahan, when the possibility of a Portis holdout before last season came up on May 9 of 2003, said "He can't have his cake and eat it, too. . . . If he decided he didn't want to play, we're going to have another back run for 1,200, 1,500 yards." The Broncos believe in their system, and they have groomed Griffin to step into Portis' spot.

One concern is the departure of OL coach Alex Gibbs, but overall the personnel on the OL are a nice mix of veteran experience (LT Matt Lepsis, C Tom Nalen, and RG Dan Neil) with two younger talents (RT George Foster was a 1st round pick in 2003, LG Ben Hamilton, a 4th rounder in 2001) moving into the other top spots. There should be enough continuity there to keep the line performing among the top echelons of the NFL.

With a recent history of 543/2629/20 rushing as a team in 2003 and 457/2266/21 rushing as a team in 2002, it's clear that there will be some sharing of the rushing duties in Denver during 2004 - I expect Griffin's share of the pie to be 1100-1200 yards rushing with 8-9 TDs, with 200-300 yards receiving and 2-3 TDs. Those totals will make Griffin the top producing Bronco back in 2004. Hearst should contribute 500-600 yards rushing and 4-5 rushing scores with another 300-400 yards receiving and 3-4 TDs in the 3rd-down/change of pace back role, while Mike Anderson accounts for most of the balance in his role as fullback. Tatum Bell will see action in the journey-mans' role, late in blowout wins and during the second-half of preseason exhibition games this season, with limited situational assignments otherwise.