Preseason Waiver Options: Players on the Rise
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Posted 9/5 by Bob Henry, Exclusive to Footballguys.com
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Kicking the tires...
Warrick Dunn is easily the most under-appreciated fantasy RB over the
past couple years. He's like the used car that looks too good to be true. Despite
obvious injury concerns Dunn usually produces amazing stats. T.J. Duckett
is the better goal line option and will probably outscore Dunn in that category,
but if your league scores receptions and yards, then Dunn is probably the better
bet, if not the better value with a lower ADP. Dunn should produce more yards
than Duckett and catch 50 passes, if he scores 6 or more TDs, then he's easily
worth his draft position and could be a key factor in your team's consistency
and ultimate success at the RB position.
Musa or Chester?
If Jamal goes down or misses any time for his pending trial during the season,
one of my longtime favorites will get a chance to shine.... finally. No, I'm
not talking about Musa Smith, but the Rouge Rocket, Chester Taylor.
Nothing against Musa, he's a solid back in his own right and has his foot wedge
in the door for part of a platoon situation, too. But Chester is a better receiver,
he's more elusive in the open field, and undervalued between the tackles. He
runs with exceptional balance and a low center making him a tougher target at
times to tackle. He flashed some big-play ability in the preseason, so don't
forget about him if you have room to stash him away for potential dividends
later this year.
The Golden Ticket in Denver
Where's Grandpa Joe for guidance when you need him? The Broncos are among the
top rushing teams in the league every year under Mike Shanahan's reign. This
year shouldn't be much different. Quentin Griffin is atop the draft chart
currently and he's given no indication of relenting his job - injuries not withstanding
of course. And that might prove to be the difference maker. If Griffin goes
down or misses a game for any reason - the door swings wide open for rookie
Tatum Bell to cash in. Bell had a slow start in training camp with a
broken finger, but make no mistake, he's the most talented back on the roster.
Griffin is a fine player and will ultimately prove to be a great change of pace
and 3rd down back, but sooner or later Bell will have this job. Color me speculative.
The gamble here is WHEN the eventual coronation of Bell takes place. It's possible
Griffin could keep the job all year long making Bell the biggest tease since
Lamont Jordan. In the world of fantasy football I believe in nothing ventured,
nothing gained. Bell is worth the risk in this case. He who holds the golden
ticket in the Broncos RB lottery will thrive considering it will likely be their
RB2 or RB3. I'm not dismissing Garrison Hearst completely, but he's coming
off injury and hasn't been very explosive or had much burst in the preseason
Cast my vote on Tatum Bell, but Quentin Griffin is a player who will demand
respect for the time being.
Don't Be Fooled (again)...
Fool me once shame on you. Fool me twice shame on me. I can't help but think
Bill Parcells sees every day in practice what I see on the field during the
exhibition games. Eddie George, bless his Evander Holyfield like heart,
is merely a shell of his former self. His power has vanished and what little
speed he had is long gone. Julius Jones is the obvious choice as the
hand-picked Parcells back. He's got the right size, speed, versatility and pedigree
for the job. If George gets 200+ carries for the Cowboys this year, then I hope
it's because their time of possession averages in the mid 30s. Otherwise, Jones
has to get the ball and so does Richie Anderson, who is an excellent
option as a safety valve receiver and goalline back. The real sleeper in this
committee, and someone to watch on the waiver wire list early in the season,
is ReShard Lee. I've been impressed with his running and he already looks
more productive than Eddie. I wouldn't be surprised to see Jones and Lee carrying
the load next year in Dallas if Parcells remains with the team. Lee might not
amount to anything and could be just the latest in a long line of players like
Ben Gay, Jason Brookins and Stacey Mack, but I wouldn't dismiss him without
more of an opportunity.
IDP Alert: Mark it down right now
Former Purdue standout Stuart Schweigert will be a stud some day in
the NFL. Whether or not it's this year remains to be seen, but the injury to
Derrick Gibson and the quasi-retirement of Rod Woodson don't hurt his chances
either. Marques Anderson was obtained via trade from the Packers, and
it wouldn't surprise me at all to see a safety combination of Anderson and Schweigert
emerge for the Raiders by mid-season. Anderson is a better fit at strong safety
and Schweigert is a natural playmaker and ball hawk who could be a future Pro
Bowler at the free safety position. Ray Buchanan is also a factor and
will begin the season as the free safety and could log time in the nickel/dime
packages as well. Ultimately, Schweigert will be the guy and just like his Boilermaker
predecessor (Woodson) he might be a gem.
Seahawks defense: A six pack to go, please
The more I think about the Seahawks offseason improvements to their defense
the more I like their chances to emerge as a top fantasy option this year. Just
look at 6 of their games this season against their divisional foes. The Rams
O-line has taken a beating this summer and Marc Bulger is too fragile for my
taste (regarding his fantasy stock) and he throws his share of picks, too. Translation:
More sacks allowed, solid turnover potential. The Cardinals O-line took a Denny
Green punch to the gut with the offing of veteran guard Pete Kendall. The offense
has talent, but no ground game and a "rookie" QB in terms of experience
with young WRs. The Cardinals could turn out to be explosive offensively, but
right now that's a gamble and the Seahawks defense might be a tough matchup
for all these youngsters. The 49ers lost Terrell Owens, Jeff Garcia, Garrison
Hearst, Tai Streets and Derrick Deese. Tim Rattay isn't what we'd consider a
mobile QB and neither is Ken Dorsey. Chalk up two more games that, on paper,
look like nice matchups for the Seahawks. That's a six pack to go from within
their own division, if they have favorable matchups in at least half of their
other games, you could be looking at one outstanding pick as part of a defensive
tandem where you play the matchups week to week.
The New Raiders Vertical Offense
Good bye Tim Brown, hello Jerry Porter. As the sun goes down on Jerry
Rice's career, a new day begins for Doug Gabriel. Rice will hold onto
his position enough to frustrate Gabriel's opportunistic owners, but look for
Gabriel to emerge this season as a bon-a-fide deep threat opposite Jerry Porter.
I believe Norv Turner will utilize Jerry Porter in sort of a Michael Irvin role,
the playmaking possession WR. Doug Gabriel could develop, at least this year,
as the inconsistent but explosive Alvin Harper type. Week to week, he'll be
a tough player to gauge, but he'll probably produce as many as a handful of
games where he'll produce big plays and starter-quality fantasy stats. If Kerry
Collins takes over for Rich Gannon I'd move both Porter and Gabriel up 5 to
10 spots on your rankings. In dynasty leagues, Gabriel makes for a great investment
with potentially high dividends.
Marshall Faulk = Fool's Gold?
You won't find anybody with more respect for Marshall Faulk than I.. but at
some point reality takes over and the shelf life expires for all RBs. As long
as Marshall is healthy he'll undoubtedly be Martz's key player in the Rams attack.
He's a virtual black hole for all other players on the Rams when they get into
the red zone, literally a TD vacuum. But all good things come to an end. Faulk's
end will mark the beginning for Steven Jackson. If Faulk starts more
than 12 games this year, I'll be surprised. Even if he remains healthy, I fully
expect Faulk to be utilized in other creative ways while Jackson will get consistently
more opportunities to thrive. One of this year's toughest decisions on draft
day involved Marshall Faulk in the early to middle second round. If you resisted
temptation, I take my hat off to you. You could get burned, but you probably
drafted a player with a higher chance to contribute all 16 weeks. If you took
Marshall, I can only hope you took the blue pill, and realized that with that
pick comes the ball and chain of another high pick and roster spot spent on
Steven Jackson in the next 5-6 rounds. That's a steep price to pay and likely
cost you another starter at WR, QB or TE. Either way, I expect Jackson to emerge
at some point this year and ultimately be an extremely rewarding dynasty selection.
The Bucs passing attack, who will benefit?
Like the Broncos running game under Shanahan, the Bucs passing attack is sure
to be among the league's top ten teams under Gruden. Brad Johnson's arm is kind
of like Marshall Faulk's knee. We know it's not going to last forever and both
have able backups itching for the opportunity to be the man. That makes Johnson
a heckuva value pick in the draft if he stays healthy, or a potential bust if
Chris Simms takes over like most people, myself included, fully expect. The
other half of this puzzle centers around the Bucs stable of WRs. Keenan McCardell
remains a holdout and his stock has plummeted. If he returns to the team - and
the good graces of Gruden - then he becomes a home run pickup if he's available.
Both seem like long-shots at this point, but don't count McCardell out yet.
If McCardell doesn't return, Joey Galloway is my bet to led the team
in receptions, yards and TDs. He's been slowed by nagging injuries in the preseason,
but his value is strong and he could finally have a strong QB throwing to him
for the first time in years. Michael Clayton, Charles Lee and
Tim Brown round out the WR corps with Joe Jurevicius also something
of an afterthought. Clayton could emerge opposite Galloway sooner rather than
later while Brown pays rent holding down the position in the interim. Lee will
probably get washed out AGAIN, but remains a player with solid talent and a
good fantasy option if the opportunity is there. Personally, I was disappointed
to see Brown join the team and would've preferred to see more of Lee, Clayton
and even Jurevicius.
That's one FUGLY tight end, but sign me
up!
By now I'm sure you've heard the news emanating from Denver and the FBG message
board. Byron Chamberlain and Jed Weaver met the turk leaving Jeb
Putzier as your Broncos starting TE going into the season opener against
the Chiefs next week. Putzier has long been someone who piqued my interest.
He's shown great potential as a receiver for the past couple seasons, but never
put it all together consistently enough to take it to the next level. With Shannon
Sharpe still playing Shanahan didn't have any need to accelerate Putzier's development.
Now, it looks like it will pay off though. I don't want to be accused of going
off the deep end, but if you realistically look at Putzier's potential given
the frequency which Denver utilizes their tight ends and H-backs in the red
zone, JB has the potential for 6 to 8 TDs. Seriously. Granted, Dwayne Carswell
and Patrick Hape will snag 2 to 3 of those through the season but that
still leaves Putzier with a good chance of scoring 4 or 5 TDs and 30+ catches.
As a waiver wire pickup at this point, Putzier could turn into this year's version
of Boo Williams or Antonio Gates - guys who went undrafted but finished the 2nd
half as top 10 fantasy TEs.
I hate preseason injuries...
The player I am most disappointed about is Tyrone Calico, who I personally
drafted in a few leagues. He was a key part of my survivor strategy as I plucked
Calico and Drew Bennett both in one such league. Someone has to catch
passes besides Derrick Mason! In the preseason Calico looked more than ready
to breakout as a potentially dominant deep threat and future Pro Bowl WR. Yes,
I'm drinking the Kool-Aid. Physically, there is no question regarding his skill
level. It's the mental game that slowed his progress as a rookie. From Jeff
Fisher to Steve McNair to Derrick Mason, each raves about the improvements Calico
made from last year.. then poof! In a flash the Titans coaching staff did what
I consider to be the unthinkable - an end-around to Calico in a meaningless
preseason game? Just like that - double knee injuries and Calico is out anywhere
from 2-3 weeks to over a month depending on who you believe. Let's just hope
it doesn't turn into a Jerry Porter like situation from last year.. Will he
be back this week? next week? when? Calico's bad luck is Bennett's gain for
now, but I'd be surprised if Calico isn't back by mid-season pulling down bombs
from Air McNair and making his owners happy.. frustrated for waiting, but happy.
Here's a few other guys to keep your eyes peeled for the last week heading
into the season. If your league allows a week "zero" waiver wire,
here's some players to look at:
RB Troy Hambrick - how ironic to be backing up Emmitt, again..
WR Nate Poole - the Cardinals WR trio is not healthy, Poole could capitalize
QB Matt Schaub - If you own Vick, Schaub should be on your roster, or
your SHORT LIST
WR Kelley Washington - fat chance he's available, but pounce on him
if he is..
TE Casey Fitzsimmons - you will hear his name more at some point this
season, count on it. Stephen Alexander is about as dependable as a wet paper
bag.
WR Derick Armstrong - another player I believe will emerge possibly
at some point this year. You likely won't need to move on him anytime soon,
but be prepared if he continues to push his way onto the field. Do you honestly
believe Corey Bradford will finally do something? If you do, good luck with
that. Jabar Gaffney will be better this year and I think Armstrong could emerge
if either Gaffney or Bradford stumble.
WR Justin Gage - everyone loves this kid, and let's be honest, the Bears
WR corps is waiting for someone to stand up, thump their chest and be the playmaker
in the group. David Terrell will finally get his chance to make it or
break it, while Gage minimally will present another big target for Grossman
in the red zone. To me, the bigger question here is how much faith do you have
in Grossman? I'm mixed, but I won't close the door on the Bears until they prove
they can't do it on the field first.
TE Jason Witten - There should be no way in hizell this guy is on your
league's waiver wire, but in the off-change he is... make sure he's not there
long.
WR Nate Burleson - I love his chances to produce as potentially a #3
or #4 fantasy WR in standard 12 team leagues. He's an outside shot to finish
in the top 40 but it's a distinct possibility and I wouldn't rule him out as
a potential top 25 WR in 2004.
WR Dante Hall - Hall has been pushed into a starting role heading into
the season because of injuries to Johnnie Morton and Marc Boerigter. Hall is
a great player to gamble on because he can make the most out of limited touches
with his big-play impact. Also, keep your sleeper eyes on the look out for Richard
Smith.
TE George Wrighster - I think he could become a top 15 fantasy TE this
year. Brady is starting the season hurt and right now Todd Yoder is the
guy who will be the starter on paper, but when it comes to being a pass target
for Lefty, it's Wrighster all the way. He could be a sneaky player this year
with 30 catches and 4 TDs a distinct possibility.
RB Reno Mahe - The former BYU back can catch the rock and the Eagles
love to dump off passes to their backs. Mahe has the potential to catch 30 balls
and make some noise in the Eagles backfield with Buckhalter gone for the season.
We also won't discount Eric McCoo and recently signed veteran Dorsey
Levens. The situation bears watching.
Good luck this year everyone.
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