Forums
SiteMap
Login / Signup  
  Home  
Articles
•  Forecast  
•  Humor  
•  Links  
•  News  
•  Stats  
•  Tools  
•  Updates  
 
Pre  · 1  · 2  · 3  · 4  · 5  · 6  · 7  · 8  · 9  · 10  · 11  · 12  · 13  · 14  · 15  · 16  · 17  · P1  · P2  · P3  · P4
Offensive Sleepers of the Week

A look at players who are generally ranked outside of the starter ranks on a weekly basis. The players listed below are those which you may gamble on depending on conditions such as a favorable matchup or an opportunity created by injury. On the other hand, the player may be considered a normal starter with a bad matchup or high risk which makes him a reach. Generally, each position is covered beginning with those who are better bets and finishing with those who are certifiable reaches or long shots. Your mileage may vary, but the idea is to discuss these players and provide you with some analysis that might help you make those difficult lineup decisions a bit easier.

Quarterbacks

Brian Griese, TB at ATL
The Falcons give up a ton of yardage through the air - 282 yds/gm and 9 TDs. They rank as the 14th best matchup for opposing QBs overall, but the way Griese is currently locked into the zone in the Bucs offense there's no reason to think the end of the road will come this week in Atlanta. The Falcons defense is getting a bit healthier with DeAngelo Hall and Rod Coleman both in the lineup this week, but Griese owners should reasonably expect solid results.

Jake Delhomme, Car at SF
Delhomme has built upon a solid finish to the 2003 season with a solid showing so far in 2004. That should continue this week facing the 49ers, who could be without CB Shawntae Spencer. They've already lost Ahmed Plummer and Mike Rumph to injuries so losing Spencer is like the final nail in the coffin. The 49ers rank 11th in terms of fantasy matchups allowing 225 yds/gm with 14 passing TDs and 2 rushing TDs allowed to QBs.

David Garrard, JAC vs Det
We don't know how long Leftwich will be gone for sure, but we know he won't be suiting up this week against the Lidowns. Detroit enters this game as the 10th best fantasy matchup for QBs allowing 239 yds/gm with 10 passing TDs and 2 rushing TDs. Don't expect Garrard to be a gunslinger like Leftwich, but he can add far more value as a runner. Garrard has been in the system long enough to be efficient and produce solid results though be wary of the Lions ability to force turnovers and generate a solid pass rush.

Josh McCown, ARI vs NYG
The Giants lost both of their starting DEs in Michael Strahan and Keith Washington this past week. They already ranked 13th as a fantasy matchup allowing 212 yds/gm with 13 TDs. Their pass rush is sure to suffer without Strahan and McCown's production looks to be on the rise in the 2nd half with a healthy Anquan Boldin getting back into the groove. This looks like a good place for an increase in McCown's production and it might be the start or more good things to come.

Joey Harrington, Det at JAC
The only difference between the Lions ranking 10th as a fantasy matchup for QBs and the Jaguars ranking 15th is 1 TD allowed. The Jags allow 242 passing yards/gm with 11 TDs. If Roy Williams were 100% we might not be considering Harrington much of a sleeper at all - or if Charles Rogers were healthy for that matter. Despite a banged up WR corps Harrington still manages to produce decent if not unspectacular numbers from week to week. He's definitely not starter material but he's not bad if you need a plug-in player some weeks.

Drew Bledsoe, Buf at NE
The Bills have won three of their last four. With Willis McGahee running strong the rest of their offense is beginning to take shape as well. The Patriots are only the 23rd best fantasy matchup for QBs and they've had their fun with Bledsoe since he left the team, but they allow an average of 239 yds/gm with 8 passing TDs. The important thing worth noting here is the Pats talented secondary isn't quite as talented since losing Ty Law and Tyrone Poole to injury two weeks ago. Neither one will be on the field this week either. It got so bad last week that Troy Brown had to step in as a DB when Asante Samuel was hurt during the game. The Rams Marc Bulger went on to throw for 285 yards with 2 TDs and 1 interception against them last week. Bledsoe probably won't match those numbers simply because the Bills are more reliant on their ground game to open things up for Bledsoe. But don't be surprised if he solves the Pats defensive scheme enough to be semi-useful.

Tim Rattay, SF vs Car
Anytime we're talking about Tim Rattay we have to make sure he's healthy and good to go on Sunday morning. No matter how good or bad the matchup is, make sure he's going to be starting this Sunday before penciling him into the lineup. That said, the Panthers defense horrible against the run which helps explain why they're ranked 32nd - or the worst fantasy matchup for opposing QBs. It's not because teams are afraid to throw against them. It's because they simply don't need to most of the time. That's why the matchups numbers might not be so applicable in this situation. The 49ers tend to throw the ball more than most teams regardless of the score, but certainly because they have played from behind a good amount. Throw the numbers out in this game. If Rattay's good to go he should produce solid numbers against the Panthers with Kevan Barlow keeping them just honest enough with his rushing.

Vinny Testaverde, DAL vs Phi
The Eagles are coming off their first lost and you can almost see the bounce back game coming this week in Dallas. Then again, the Cowboys are like a cornered and wounded animal - dangerous. The Eagles rank 16th as a fantasy matchup allowing 234 yds/gm with 9 passing TDs and 1 rushing TD. While Vinny has been reasonably solid in terms of yardage, he's also been horrible of late in terms of protecting the football and keeping mistakes to a minimum. The Eagles will be bringing it defensively so Vinny is a big risk to be sure. Consider him a last resort starter if you're razor thin because the Cowboys WR corps remains riddled by injuries. If they were completely healthy Testaverde might be a decent sleeper. As it stands, he's a major reach.

Running Backs

Top Choices

Kevan Barlow, SF vs Car
Brace yourself and let the snickering begin.. Obviously, Barlow has been a huge disappointment this season and I'm in the same boat in a couple leagues as many FBG subscribers after the Barlow pimping came into full bloom in August. But truth be told, at the time, if you drafted in the 11th or 12th slot it was very difficult to pass him by especially since 8 to 10 RBs were already off the board. The important to note this week is that Barlow couldn't ask for a better matchup than Carolina. The Panthers rank 1st in fantasy points allowed to opposing RBs giving up 131 rushing yds/gm, 13 rushing TDs, 32 receiving yds/gm and 3 TD catches. He may not be the week's top fantasy back, but don't be surprised if he's close.

Michael Pittman, TB at ATL
Pittman is coming off an outstanding game and figures to be productive again. The Falcons are only yielding 88  rushing yds/gm to RBs, but have allowed 12 rushing TDs making them the 5th best fantasy matchup. The Falcons hope to have DT Rod Coleman back in the lineup, which should help shore up their run defense, but Pittman should still be reasonably productive because of his versatility as a receiver as well.

Derrick Blaylock, KC at NO
It looks more and more like Priest Holmes won't be able to play this week against the Saints. If Blaylock's healthy himself, he'll be the starter. He was held out last week but looks like he'll be ok to start. The Saints are the 2nd best fantasy matchup for RBs allowing 130 rushing yds/gm with 9 TDs, not to mention 49 receiving yds/gm with 2 TDs. Blaylock will likely split carries and playing time with Larry Johnson, but he's expected to start and should receive the majority of the carries if he's healthy and able to do so.

Solid reaches

Brad Hoover, Car at SF
Stephen Davis's knee is beginning to look like a season-long problem. I wouldn't be too hopeful that he'll be able to play this week which means we could see even more of Hoover going up against the 4th best fantasy matchup for RBs. The 49ers are allowing 114 rushing yds/gm with 12 TDs while allowing another 28 yds/gm and 2 TDs receiving. Joey Harris is also in the mix as is Nick Goings, but neither of these two have been as productive as Hoover for more than a drive or two. If Davis remains out due to the knee injury look for Hoover to be a solid reach.

Emmitt Smith, ARI vs NYG
As mentioned above, the Giants defense suffered a major blow losing DEs Michael Strahan and Keith Washington for the season to injuries. The Giants previously ranked 19th as a fantasy matchup for RBs allowing 104 rushing yds/gm with 5 TDs and another 40 yds/gm and 1 TD through the air. Emmitt will yield playing time to Troy Hambrick as he's done most of the year, but should be productive and a solid #2 RB this week given the Giants injury problems.

Eddie George, DAL vs Phi
The Eagles are allowing 115 rushing yds/gm to RBs and a combined 5 TDs. George has taken on a bigger rushing load in recent weeks and could be a decent reach as a #2 RB this week. The best way for the Cowboys to beat the Eagles and limit McNabb & Owens is to keep them off the field and run the clock. Eddie isn't the warhorse he used to be but he's perfectly capable of toting the pill 25 times and helping the Cowboys sustain drives even if it's 2.9 yards a pop. He is what he is, but this week it just might be good enough for some teams.

Kevin Jones, Det at JAC
The Lions running game is a sore subject in the city of Detroit. There's a growing level of expectations, pressure and noise surrounding the need for Mariucci to get Kevin Jones the ball 20 to 25 times a game and ditch the committee approach with Pinner and Bryson both logging time in different formations or situations. It's hard to expect much, if anything, out of Jones at this point, but the Jags run defense isn't as strong as it was at the beginning of the season because of injuries to their defensive line. And Jones has been getting almost all of the snaps this week in the Lions practices. Mooch said he'll get a bigger rushing load in the 2nd half of the season and that should begin this week. Look for him to get the ball 15 to 20 times, but his value will probably come down to his ability to get into the end zone. The Jags have allowed 5 TDs to opposing backs in 8 games. So give him a 50/50 shot.

Some backups who might be worth a look

Larry Johnson, KC at NO
See the analysis above for Derrick Blaylock. Even if Blaylock starts he isn't going to be 100% which leaves the door wide open for Johnson to potentially get more carries than most expect. If Blaylock is able to start and play well then Johnson may not get more than a handful of carries. Such is the risk when you start a backup. On the other hand, the Saints run defense is woeful and there's plenty of reason to be optimistic and think he could get 10+ carries if the Chiefs can jump out to an early lead and give Blaylock a smaller load and get him back to 100% for the rest of the season if Holmes' knee continues to be a problem.

Troy Hambrick, ARI vs NYG
See analysis for Emmitt Smith above. Hambrick is getting 10 or more carries some weeks while only getting a handful in others. The Cardinals are playing the Giants at the right time given their injuries so Hambrick could be called upon more than usual this week. He tends to get more carries in games the Cardinals have a lead. That just might be the case this week and the Cardinals could lean on Hambrick in the 2nd half to run the ball and the clock.

Richie Anderson, DAL vs Phi
See Eddie George above. Richie is a good bet to get 6 to 12 carries or touches this week and has a reasonable chance to score. He's a long shot for sure, but the Eagles run defense is suspect and the Cowboys WR corps is banged up. With the Eagles loving to blitz look for Parcells to counter their aggressiveness with quick hitting draw and sprint plays designed for Anderson as well as delayed screens to keep the Eagles outside pass rushers at bay to some extent.

Wide Receivers

Top Choices

Lee Evans, Buf at NE
As the Bills begin to run the ball more effectively Evans role in the offense grows as well. It's like the chicken or the egg. Which one comes first? It stands to reason that both have a positive effect on each other. The Patriots secondary is woefully thin right now and they may have a difficult time covering Evans given his speed and soft hands. Don't be surprised if he breaks a big play or two this week. The Patriots have allowed 9 receptions of 40 yds or longer this year - 2nd most in the league. And that's WITH Ty Law and Tyrone Poole on the field for most of the games. Without those two, Evans looks like a prime candidate to break out.

Jabar Gaffney, Hou at IND
Gaffney's role continues to grow as teams pay more and more attention to Andre Johnson. Gaffney could really bloom this week going against the league's #1 matchup for WRs. The Colts are allowing 186 yds/gm and 10 TDs so look for Gaffney to potentially be a very good spot start this week.

Eddie Kennison, KC at NO
Kennison really shouldn't be much of a sleeper because he's a veteran and done it all before... but he missed the first month of the season and he's been reasonably consistent and productive since returning. The Saints have allowed 189 yds/gm with 6 TDs to opposing WRs so look for him and Johnnie Morton to be solid candidates for plug-in starters this week.

Keary Colbert, Car at SF
Colbert is proving to be more than your typical rookie WR. He's been consistent, productive and for the most part a reliable fantasy WR. He should continue that trend this week as the 49ers secondary was hit by injury once again with Shawntae Spencer possibly being limited if not held out this week due to a sprained ankle. The 49ers have allowed 9 TDs and 164 yds/gm to WRs and rank as the 8th best fantasy matchup.

Solid reaches

Joe Jurevicius, TB at ATL
Look for the Bucs pair of Joes to be sleeper plays this week. Joey Galloway and Jurevicius are both coming off injuries but face an inviting matchup against the Falcons this week considering they've allowed 191 yds/gm with 7 TDs to opposing WRs. Galloway suffered a hip pointer last week and was forced to leave the game after catching 2 passes for 40 yards. He's expected to play this week but check the Sunday pre-game reports just to be sure before using him. Jurevicius is a bit healthy despite his aching back and other problems.

David Terrell, Chi at TEN
Despite the long odds of David Terrell rounding into a solid fantasy WR this year I remain confident that he can overcome the situation and dearth of talent the Bears have going at QB to be reasonably productive in the 2nd half of this season. But he's got to get the ball first. Last week he got the ball and he produced a solid effort and box score. This week he faces a Titans defense that is allowing 177 yds/gm with 5 TDs to opposing WRs. No matter what anyone believes, Terrell has plenty of talent and once he gets a reasonable amount of targets on a weekly basis I see no reason why he won't be productive. Now if he could just keep the mouth clamped until he does something that would be nice, too.

Curtis Conway, SF vs Car
With Brandon Lloyd seemingly banged up every game and Cedrick Wilson gimpy heading into this week, Conway could be inserted into the starting lineup if Wilson isn't able to go. Even if he's not in the lineup, he could be used in the slot to take advantage of his speed against the Panthers corners. Against a corner like Artrell Hawkins or Dante Wesley - look for Conway to possibly break off a big catch/run.

Backup / Slot receivers who are worth a look

Brandon Stokley, IND vs Hou
Stokley isn't really a sleeper given his production this year, but it's worth noting the Texans have allowed 13 TDs to opposing WRs in 8 games. Let's just say if Stokley finds the end zone this week it would hardly be a surprise or by accident.

Derick Armstrong, Hou at IND
See Gaffney above. The same rules apply here only Armstrong seems to do his best work when the Texans are playing from behind in high scoring games. Hmmmm.. Seems that this game has that potential and then some. As a slot WR you'll be hard pressed to find someone more talented and productive. Armstrong is a solid reach this week knowing that Peyton Manning and the Colts offensive buzz saw will almost certainly hang 30+ points on the Texans this week. Look for Armstrong to get plenty of garbage time playing catchup and some decent numbers as a result.

Kelly Campbell, Min at GB
Campbell looks like a solid reach this week against the divisional rival Packers in large part because Randy Moss will miss his 2nd straight game. Then again, having watched Culpepper "struggle" without Moss it stands to reason that this isn't quite the slam dunk matchup it might seem like on paper. The Packers are the 3rd best matchup for WRs allowing 155 yds/gm with 10 TDs. Obviously, starters Marcus Robinson and Nate Burleson are the ones to play this week, but Campbell has proven to be a pest as a big play threat in the past with his quickness and elusive running in the open field. The Packers corners aren't all that good to be honest, so Campbell should enjoy a good matchup in this game and may be able to take full advantage.

Freddie Mitchell, Phi at DAL
The Cowboys are hurting at corner. They're playing guys that were initially only considered dime corners at best heading into training camp. Mitchell has the skills to win his matchups this week playing out of the slot and he might be a good bet to score a TD or at least be semi-useful with 3 to 5 catches in the "glass is half full" outlook.

Shaun McDonald, STL vs Sea
McDonald's speed and big play ability has been readily apparent this year. The Seahawks corners could be limited this week due to the concussion suffered by Ken Lucas last week. That could push Bobby Taylor into the starting lineup and Kris Richard into nickel duty. McDonald can win this matchup and might be good for a handful of catches and a long TD.

Tight Ends

In a week where two of the top fantasy TEs are on the bye (Antonio Gates and Randy McMichael) finding the right sleeper TE is even more important than usual. Here's a few who could be worthy of starting.

Dallas Clark & Marcus Pollard, IND vs Hou
While neither one of these two TEs are much of a sleeper they both deserve to be mentioned here coming off last week's game where they combined to catch 3 TDs. Clark has caught a TD in three of the last 4 games. The Texans rank as the 10th best matchup for TEs allowing 52 yds/gm with 3 TDs. It's hard to say that both of these guys will be productive, but it does appear that Clark's role in the offense seems to be slowly gaining steam each week.

Jerramy Stevens, Sea at STL
Stevens was "benched" last week according to Mike Holmgren, but judging by the box score you wouldn't have known it. The Rams are the 9th best fantasy matchup for TEs allowing 46 yds/gm and 5 TDs. Daniel Graham was held scoreless last week, but his descent has more to do with the Patriots offensive schemes and role changes than anything the Rams did defensively in that game. The Seahawks seem to be working Stevens more into the mix lately so give him a shot this week and you might be rewarded with solid numbers if not a TD.

Stephen Alexander, Det at JAC
The Jaguars are the 4th ranked matchup for opposing TEs having allowed 48 yds/gm and 5 TDs. The matchup might be a tailor made one for Alexander considering how beat up the Lions WR corps is coming into this game. Tai Streets hasn't practiced in a couple weeks. Roy Williams remains limited by a high ankle sprain and probably won't practice much at all this week and Az-Zahir Hakim is also slowed by injuries. That means Alexander might be a higher priority in the passing game and could see increased targets.

L.J. Smith, Phi at DAL
After a strong start Smith has disappeared in the Eagles offense. The Cowboys enter this game ranked as the 13th best matchup for TEs allowing 39 yds/gm with 4 TDs. While it's nothing to hang your hat on, you'll note Smith caught a TD in his last game against the Cowboys (his only catch of the game). 

..and a few long shots

Desmond Clark, Chi at TEN
The Titans were giving up lots of fantasy points to TEs earlier in the season but they still rank 5th as a matchup with 7 TDs allowed and 35 yds/gm. Desmond Clark probably isn't on many fantasy rosters either at this point. If you're in a deeper league and need to pluck a TE off the waiver wire, roll the dice and hope for a prayer then look for Clark to possibly be that guy. He's a long shot but he just might sneak into the end zone or catch a few passes as Krenzel's security blanket.

Mark Bruener and Billy Miller, Hou at IND
Normally, I'd say that you'd have to be on crack to start either one of these two TEs, but considering the matchup involved, a couple beers might do the trick. The Colts allow 63 yds/gm to TEs along with 5 TDs. I'm sure Gonzo's freak out game against them last week has a SMALL effect on those numbers, but be that as it may.. Miller has disappeared from the fantasy radar this year since Bruener joined the team giving them much better run blocking, but next to no receiving production. While the matchup is excellent (Indy is #2 overall) you'd still be better off not going this far.. but it will be interesting to see if anything pans out here.


Site Map | Contact Us  | Login / Signup

©Copyright Footballguys.com 2003, All rights reserved.