Offensive
Sleepers of the Week |
by
Bob Henry, Exclusive to Footballguys.com
|
A look at players who are generally ranked
outside of the starter ranks on a weekly basis.
The players listed below are those which you may
gamble on depending on conditions such as a
favorable matchup or an opportunity created by injury.
On the other hand, the player may be considered
a normal starter with a bad matchup or high risk
which makes him a reach. Generally, each
position is covered beginning with those who are
better bets and finishing with those who are certifiable reaches
or long shots. Your mileage may vary, but the
idea is to discuss these players and provide you
with some analysis that might help you make
those difficult lineup decisions a bit easier.
Quarterbacks
Brian Griese, TB vs SF
Griese continues to be a good sleeper pick
this week facing the 49ers secondary that was
blasted last week by Jake Delhomme and Muhsin
Muhammad. The 49ers have allowed 17 passing TDs
to just 3 INTs. You gotta like that if you're
looking at Griese. San Francisco is the 10th
best fantasy matchup for QBs allowing 233
passing yds/gm. Their secondary remains injury
riddled though rookie Shawntae Spencer looks
better than he did a week ago with an ankle
sprain. Ride Griese if your options are thin and
you are able to do so.
Kerry Collins, OAK vs SD
Collins once again looks like a potentially
good play on paper, but the last time he faced
the Chargers it was a turnover fest with Kerry
being the main contributor. The Chargers are the
11th best matchup allowing 247 passing yds/gm
with 11 TDs to go with completion rate of 64%.
Another positive working in Collins favor is the
health of his WRs. Ron Curry and Doug Gabriel
are rested up and healthier than they've been in
over a month coming off the bye week. Playing at
home is never a bad thing either for a QB.
David Garrard, JAC vs Ten
It looks like Byron Leftwich will sit out
again this week as he continues to recover from a sprained knee. Garrard didn't
do anything to disappoint last week throwing a 36 yd TD strike to a streaking
Jimmy Smith in OT for the win. The Titans are a tougher matchup than the Lions,
but don't be afraid to run with Garrard. He's one of the better QBs in the
league when it comes to making things happen with his legs - a sure bonus for
fantasy production. The Titans allow 223 yds/gm through the air with 12 TDs on
the season. Look for Garrard to be useful but probably not as productive as last
week.
Eli Manning, NYG vs Atl
There may not be a better sleeper going than
Eli this week - despite the fact he's making his
first NFL start. The Falcons are near the league
leaders in sacks with 27 but are also among the
league leaders in passing yards allowed (270
yds/gm). Opposing QBs are completing 67% of
their passes against Atlanta, too. If the Giants
can provide ANY protection for Eli - and that's
a major question - he just might be able to
produce solid yardage numbers and get into the
end zone once or twice. However, given this is
his first start expect a few turnovers and sacks
to create some bumps along the way.
Joey Harrington, Det at MIN
On paper this looks like a good matchup for
Joey Ballgame to get into a groove. However,
what you won't find in the stat sheet is the
possibility that Joey could be benched this week
if he doesn't get off to a good start. The Lions
have made no secret about getting Mike McMahon
increased snaps this week in practice, so it
would be no surprise if Joey is yanked midway
through this game if the Lions don't get on the
scoreboard or if turnovers or poor accuracy
become an issue. The Vikings are the 4th best
matchup for QBs allowing 257 passing yds/gm with
2 TDs/gm (combined). The key for success here is
whether the Lions get off to a good start.
Because of the uncertainty involved going with
Harrington has considerably more downside than
the other choices here.
Kyle Boller, BAL vs Dal
The Cowboys are now the 5th best matchup for
opposing QBs on the heels of being thrashed by
Donovan McNabb on MNF. They are allowing 235
yds/gm with 19 TDs passing (1 rushing).
Meanwhile, Boller seemed to emerge from a
season-long (ok, career-long) funk to play
reasonably well against the Jets last week. The
Cowboys defense is bad, specifically the
secondary. You can be sure of that much. Whether
or not Boller is able to take advantage of this
matchup is the million dollar question. At least
his WR corps is back and healthy except for TE
Todd Heap - their best player. The Cowboys have
just 4 INTs on the season so Boller should be
able to at least play smart football and keep
the mistakes to a minimum.
A few long shots..
Drew Bledsoe, BUF vs StL
Bledsoe was benched late in last week's loss
but he's got the good ole vote of confidence this week as the Bills starting QB,
but mostly because J.P. Losman isn't ready YET. Bledsoe should have a little
better luck this week perhaps going against the Rams defense that is ranked 12th
in fantasy pts allowed. St. Louis is allowing 232 passing yds/gm with 12 TDs and
just 3 INTs. The key will be getting some pass protection something the Bills
have struggled with all year. The Rams have 19 sacks on the season so look for
mixed results overall.
Patrick Ramsey, Was at PHI
I don't know about you, but personally I
have a difficult time getting excited about
Patrick Ramsey as an NFL quarterback much less a
fantasy QB. He hasn't looked all that good to me
on the field and facing an aggressive, blitzing
defense like the Eagles doesn't inspire me to
even think about playing him. That said, if
you're left with few choices or maybe grabbed
him off the waiver heap this week, you can at
least take comfort in knowing that while he's
likely to be sacked numerous times and throw an
interception or two, he might be able to produce
some yards and a TD or two. The Eagles are the
13th best matchup for QBs allowing 236 yds/gm
with 11 TDs.
Craig Krenzel, CHI vs Ind
Now, we're officially scraping the bottom of
the barrel. Krenzel has been atrocious to watch
at times. He's inconsistent, inaccurate and
definitely lucky considering he's off to a 3-0
start as the Bears QB. That fortune should come
to an end this week as Peyton TD Watch rolls
into town. It's worth noting, however, that the
Colts are the 3rd best matchup for QBs allowing
293 passing yds/gm with 16 TDs combined. Only
the Saints have allowed more passing yds than
Indy. On the flipside, only the Ravens have
fewer passing yds than the Bears. Something has
to give here, but don't expect much. If Krenzel
can top 200 yds with a TD or two that would be
almost as big of an upset as his Buckeyes
beating the Wolverines on Saturday.
Running Backs
Jerome Bettis, Pit at CIN
It looks like you can fire the Bus up for
the 3rd straight week and judging by the matchup
numbers it should be worthwhile as long as Duce
Staley isn't playing, of course. The Bengals are
the 5th best matchup for RBs as they allow 131
yds/gm on the ground and a combined 9 TDs. The
Steelers are averaging 40 rushing attempts per
game - which is just nuts - so you pretty much
know how this script goes. If the Steelers get
out to an early lead as they've been able to do
consistently this year, they'll jump aboard the
Bus and ride him home.
Emmitt Smith (or Troy Hambrick), Ari at CAR
Emmitt's currently listed as questionable
this week with an ankle sprain. Be sure to watch
his status because if he doesn't go then Troy
Hambrick jumps into this spot as an
incredible value for a bench player in your
lineup. The Panthers, of course, are the best
fantasy matchup in the league for RBs allowing
127 rushing yds/gm, 34 receiving yds/gm and 18
combined TDs. They've allowed more rushing TDs
than any other team in the league. Whoever
starts for the Cardinals should easily produce
80+ yards and get into the end zone at least
once. Even if Emmitt starts there's a good
chance Hambrick could still be an excellent
sleeper since he's usually good for 8 to 10
carries each week with Emmitt in the lineup.
Michael Pittman, TB vs SF
The 49ers are the 4th best matchup for RBs
allowing 107 rushing yds, 31 receiving yds and almost 2 TDs per game (15 to be
exact). The 49ers have allowed the 2nd most rushing TDs in the league (13). The
Bucs welcome back Mike Alstott this week, but in his first game back I'm not
sure that I'd expect him to carry the pill a lot in goal line situations. On
another note, the Bucs waived Jamel White paving the path for the undrafted
former Gator RB Ernest Graham to get some touches this week as Pittman's
primary backup. Look for Pittman to continue his solid run of production as he's
generally a pretty solid #2 RB in most leagues regardless of the scoring system
because he's been getting into the end zone, putting up decent yardage and
catching the ball out of the backfield.
Kevin Jones, Det at MIN
Look for this week to be the best game yet
for Kevin Jones. Steve Mariucci seems genuinely
committed to using Jones as a featured back
after giving him almost all of the practice reps
last week followed by the majority of snaps in
the game. He responded with his best game yet,
but still dropped several passes that killed
drives, so there's obviously much work to do for
Jones to be THE MAN. Still, the Vikings run
defense is vulnerable and they enter this game
ranked 6th as far as a fantasy matchup allowing
105 rushing yds/gm, 48 receiving yds/gm and 8
TDs (combined). If Jones touches the ball 20+
times this week, he should top 100 combined
yards and possibly score.
Tyrone Wheatley, OAK vs SD
Wheatley is as healthy now as he's been
since the beginning of the year, but the
Chargers are the stingiest run defense in the
league allowing only 79 rushing yds/gm overall.
As a fantasy matchup, they're more middle of the
road ranking 22nd. Wheatley is definitely
outside the realm of regular fantasy starting
RBs, so he definitely fits the classic mold of
sleeper. But given the tough matchup and
likelihood the Chargers could jump out to an
early lead (wow, how times have changes so
quickly) Wheatley might be best left on the
bench this week. Consider this.. the Chargers
are the only team not to allow a 20+ yard run
yet.
Brandon Bennett, CAR vs Ari
The Cardinals are allowing 111 rushing
yds/gm to opposing RBs but have let them score just 5 combined TDs against them.
While Brad Hoover and Nick Goings have been the lead backs for the
Panthers in the previous 2 games, it's quite possible that Bennett could be the
lead back this week. He got into the game last week and scored a TD and also
seems like a better fit as a tailback than either Hoover or Goings, if not at
least as a 3rd down back. Hoover didn't practice on Wednesday due to a bad back
and he's currently listed as questionable. While it's difficult to guess how the
carries will be divided, if I were a betting man I'd consider Goings and Bennett
about a 50/50 split to each have around 9 to 12 touches - which could grow if
Hoover doesn't play. Stay tuned to see who is active on Sunday and you might get
lucky in this musical chairs of RBs.
Travis Minor
or Sammy Morris, Mia at SEA
Morris has been the lead back for the
Dolphins for over a month now, but that doesn't
mean they won't change directions this week as
Minor is finally healthy and played well two
weeks ago in their last game. The Seahawks lost
LB Anthony Simmons (he's been in and out of the
lineup with injuries already) for the season,
but the guy who replaced him earlier - Tracy
White - is also out this week. Chad Brown is
questionable as well. The Seahawks run defense
might be more vulnerable than normal but they've
been pretty solid for the most part allowing 94
yds/gm to opposing RBs with just 5 TDs. At this
point, Morris is the best bet, but it's worth
keeping an eye on Minor because he's in the
perfect situation to come in and be the surprise
player this week in the box score.
Backups worth a shot
Verron Haynes or Willie Parker, Pit at CIN
If Duce Staley sits out this week then one
of these two backs will likely pick up the
change-of-pace and 3rd down duties. Last week
Willie Parker got his first real playing time
and looked pretty good though he did drop a few
passes that were right in his mitts. Haynes sat
out last week, but looks like he and Staley
could both sit out again as they rest and get
healthy. Bettis seems to be going along strong,
but he also took some good shots last week and
could give way a little earlier this week to
Parker if the situation warrants. Again, keep
your eyes peeled for who is inactive on Sunday
morning. If Duce and Haynes are not going to
play, then Parker is worth a stab in deeper
leagues or if you are just looking for a real
long shot that could pay some dividends and help
you save face.
Tatum Bell, Den at NO
The Saints run defense is abysmal. They are
2nd in the league in fantasy pts allowed and
dead last in run defense allowing just shy of
150 yds/gm with 11 TDs. Opponents are averaging
4.8 yds/carry against them. This might be just
the game where Tatum Bell is able to get a few
extra carries and the most work he's gotten all
year long. The Broncos are well rested coming
off the bye so don't be surprised if Droughns is
rested later in this game as Bell logs 5 to 10
carries (upside).
Wide Receivers
Bobby Wade and David Terrell, CHI
vs Ind
While it's awfully hard to get behind Craig
Krenzel or even his WRs, there's no denying that
the Bears WR will find themselves smack dab in
the middle of a productive environment this
Sunday. The Colts seem like a lock to produce
big points again this week putting the Bears
into a catch up mode where Krenzel almost HAS TO
THROW. Again, not sure what the results will
look like but Wade is proving to be a capable
possession WR and go to guy on 3rd downs. He's a
good bet to catch 5 or more passes this week
while David Terrell could be in the mix near the
red zone and - who knows - maybe he'll put up
his 3rd big game of the season to go with the
other 7 near goose eggs.
Travis Taylor and Clarence Moore, BAL vs Dal
The Cowboys are a prime target for this WR
duo that could be emerging as a solid tandem for the 2nd half of the season.
Moore has a decided height advantage over any of the Cowboys corners while
Taylor remains the team's most targeted WR and thus the most consistent as well.
Dallas is now the 2nd best matchup for WRs after Terrell Owens was done. They're
allowing 166 yds/gm with 14 TDs - 2nd most in the league. Moore looks like the
team's top option in the red zone so he's a nice looking sleeper while Taylor
might also be worth a look and could find the end zone as well.
Eric Parker, SD at OAK
With Charles Woodson returning and Keenan
McCardell likely drawing his coverage, Parker
will be going against Phillip Buchanon. That
means a big play could be in the cards. Buchanon
remains a very talented corner with big play
ability when he has the ball in his hands, but
he's also a liability at times because he takes
bad gambles going for the ball. The Raiders are
the 8th best matchup for WRs overall allowing
171 yds/gm with 8 TDs (just under 1 per game).
Look for Parker to be the sneaky play here with
Gates drawing a ton of attention from the
Raiders defense after scorching them badly the
last time around.
Jabar Gaffney, HOU vs GB
The Packers have allowed 11 TDs so far this
year and an average of 159 yds/gm. Gaffney is
quickly developing into Carr's top possession WR
and 3rd down option opposite Andre Johnson. Look
for Carr to rebound this week after throwing 3
INTs and losing a fumble last week against the
Colts. Gaffney has been steadily improving this
year and quickly growing out of his sleeper
status.
Eddie Kennison
and Johnnie Morton, KC vs NE
The Chiefs pair of WRs have been
consistently productive over the last month
since Kennison rejoined the starting lineup. The
Patriots secondary is still riddled with
injuries, but they performed reasonably well
last week against the Bills. Then again, the
Bills can't block anyone so expect better
results for the Chiefs as their offensive line
is light years ahead of what the Patriots went
up against last week. The Patriots defense
remains very solid, but they've been prone to
giving up big passing plays all year. They rank
as the 12th best matchup, surprisingly, for WRs
allowing 161 yds/gm with 8 TDs. Ironically, the
Chiefs are the only team to allow more 40+ yard
receptions to WRs (13) than the Patriots (9).
Lee Evans, BUF vs StL
Evans has been steadily improving in his
rookie season and this week might be his best
opportunity to shine. The Rams are allowing 149
yds/gm and 7 TDs to opposing WRs. If Willis
McGahee gets off to a good start (Rams run
defense isn't all that) then look for Evans to
get a little more room as the Rams commit more
defenders to the run. Evans is a big play
waiting to happen with his excellent speed and
hands. It's just a matter of time before he
breaks off another long TD and he's due.
Az-Zahir Hakim, Det at MIN
As long as Hakim is able to play and stay in
the game this week he's in an excellent
situation to be productive. Reggie Swinton
is also worth a look as a much deeper
sleeper, but especially if Hakim isn't able to
play or gets roughed up forcing Swinton to play
a larger role. The Vikings are the 9th best
matchup allowing 160 yds/gm and 9 TDs. They'll
be putting more emphasis on covering Roy
Williams leaving Hakim, Swinton and David Kircus
in single coverage. The question becomes whether
Joey Harrington can hit them in stride of if
he'll continue misfiring and throwing behind his
WRs short-circuiting the Lions drives.
Jerry Porter, Ron Curry and Doug
Gabriel, OAK vs SD
The Raiders receivers seem primed for a good
game this week. Collins definitely has the arm
to get them the ball and the Chargers secondary
is the weakness of their defense. The question
is more if he'll be able to throw TDs and not
just rack up a bunch of yards. It's doubtful
that all three of these guys will be productive,
but Curry seems like a reasonable sleeper given
that he's developed into the Raiders top option
on 3rd downs and appears to be Collins' go to
guy in the clutch. Porter's been a
disappointment but he's still a top talent and
could be a decent play here if Curry and Gabriel
can force the Chargers to be honest. If this
game plays out like it appears on paper the
Raiders will be throwing a lot so if you feel
adventurous go with Curry, Porter and Gabriel in
that order.
The forgotten ones
Troy Brown
or Deion Branch, NE at KC
If Branch is able to practice and play this
week he's worth a long look, but you're probably
better off gambling on Troy Brown and
playing the wait and see game with Branch. Let's
see if he's able to play and make it through a
game without further injury or a setback before
going there.
Peerless Price, Atl at NYG
Price remains an overvalued bust considering
his draft slot in the pre-season in most
leagues. Don't blame him though because most of
his problems stem from the Falcons spreading the
ball, running the ball and, of course, Michael
Vick's inconsistent arm. That said, the Giants
defense is hurt by injuries and Vick might be
able to exploit them for some big plays
downfield if their pass rush doesn't get after
him. With no Michael Strahan and Keith
Washington that's a lot of pressure to put on
the Giants D-line.
Ike Hilliard, NYG vs Atl
Either Hilliard isn't getting open this
year, he disappeared or Kurt Warner didn't
like him. Now that Eli is behind center it's
quite possible that we could see a thawing of
sorts here. Hilliard is a solid WR and the
Falcons are vulnerable against the pass. He's
worth a shot if you need to take a flyer on a
veteran who has proven capable in the past.
Tight Ends
Jeb Putzier, Den at NO
If you own Putzier this is the week you've
had circled on the schedule. The Saints are the league's #1 matchup for opposing
TEs allowing 53 yds/gm with 7 TDs. Putzier should benefit from a strong running
game (as usual) and could be ready for a few big plays and I suspect he'll score
a TD. That's being optimistic, of course, but you won't find a better matchup
than this week for Putzier.
Shad Meier
and Erron Kinney, Ten at JAC
Kinney is back in the lineup but the Titans
are using all three of their TEs so Shad Meier and Ben Troupe are
also worth mentioning. The Jags are the 7th best matchup for TEs allowing 45
yds/gm with 5 TDs. Expect Kinney's work load to increase as he gets back in the
rhythm, while Meier remains the more productive receiver of the two. Both are
solid blockers, but Kinney is perhaps better in that area and could be called
upon for more blocking duties this week as the Titans could be playing without
both of their starting offensive tackles.
Doug Jolley, OAK vs SD
The Chargers are the 9th best fantasy
matchup for TEs allowing 46 yd/gm with 5 TDs.
Jolley has been producing solid numbers over the
last month and produced a solid game the last
time these two teams met (22 yds and 1 TD). He
remains a solid sleeper but with the Raiders WRs
healthy finally he might not see as many targets
so be careful not to expect him to continue
producing the same numbers he's put up recently.
Teyo Johnson could also get some playing time
this week as his expense if you believe the
rumors.
Bubba Franks, GB at HOU
Bubba is still the same guy he's been for
the last 4 years or so. TD or bust. The Texans
are the 2nd best matchup for TEs allowing 5 TDs
and 59 yds/gm - tops in the league. Look for
Bubba to get open again this week at the goal
line and there's probably a 75% chance he
scores.
Jerramy Stevens, SEA vs Mia
Not a matchup play, but more of a reminder
that Stevens appears to be coming of late.
Apparently the "benching" worked. Stevens has
somewhat of a brutal matchup considering the
Dolphins allow an average of just 11 yds/gm to
TEs. That's the best in the league, but they've
also allowed 4 TDs so all hope is not lost. The
Seahawks continue to utilize their TEs and with
the Dolphins losing Junior Seau and Antuan
Edwards they may be more vulnerable in the red
zone to TEs than before.
Kyle Brady, JAC vs Ten
The Titans have allowed 7 TDs to opposing
TEs, but it's worth noting that a majority of
those came in the first 5 or 6 games. Brady is a
sleeper, for sure, but he's hardly a great
player to rely on from week to week.
..and a few long shots
Chris Cooley, Was at PHI
Cooley has now scored 3 TDs on the season
and he's facing an Eagles defense that ranks 5th
as a fantasy matchup for TEs allowing 54 yds/gm
with 5 TDs. He's not the kind of player who will
catch 4 or 5 passes but given the Redskins many
weapons he's usually the one who draws the least
attention and the Redskins have been able to
make the most of his matchups near the goal
line. It's worth noting the Eagles defensive
stats are obviously thrown out of whack after
the shellacking Jason Witten laid on them Monday
night, but there's two sides to that fence. One
says they are vulnerable and there for the
taking. The other says it won't happen again and
Witten is clearly a better, more dynamic player
than Cooley.
Kris Mangum, CAR vs Ari
Mangum is questionable with a neck injury so
check his status before taking a chance. That
said, the Cardinals have allowed 5 TDs to TEs
this year and rank as the 6th best matchup
overall (42 yds/gm). Mangum has 2 TDs so far,
but if he's not able to play look for Mike
Seidman to be a super sleeper on Sunday.
Teyo Johnson, OAK vs SD
See Jolley above. The Chargers are the 9th
best matchup for TEs (46 yds/gm and 5 TDs) and
Courtney Anderson is sidelined due to
injury. Jolley is certainly the top option and
better bet, but Norv Turner appears ready to let
Johnson out of the doghouse and reportedly they
have a couple packages specifically designed to
get Johnson the ball. Remain skeptical, but if
nothing else it's worth watching to see if
there's fire behind this smoke screen.
Desmond Clark, CHI vs Ind
Clark has done next to nothing this year,
but given the matchup I suppose there's always
hope that he could suddenly show a sign of life.
The Colts are the 3rd best matchup for TEs
allowing 57 yds/gm and 5 TDs. Clark has always
been known more for his receiving abilities than
as a blocker, so if you're truly desperate give
him a chance.
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