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Offensive Sleepers/Reaches of the Week

A look at players who are generally ranked outside of the starter ranks on a weekly basis. The players listed below are those which you may gamble on depending on conditions such as a favorable matchup or an opportunity created by injury. On the other hand, the player may be considered a normal starter with a bad matchup or high risk which makes him a reach. Generally, each position is covered beginning with those who are better bets and finishing with those who are certifiable reaches or long shots. Your mileage may vary, but the idea here is to discuss players who are tough lineup decisions, provide you with some analysis and hopefully highlight a couple guys that could help you on a tough bye week.

Quarterbacks

David Carr, Hou at KC
Carr broke out last week against the Lions and has a good matchup against the Chiefs this week. He's not going to last much longer in this column if he continues at this pace. Through two weeks, Carr has completed around 70% of his passes, but ultimately melted down a few times throwing 3 INTs. He should produce good yardage again this week, and just how good of a start he might be comes down to the old TD to INT ratio. The Chiefs have allowed 5 TDs but also have 4 INTs, so expect about the same from Carr.

Jeff Garcia, Cle at NYG
The Giants are the hot matchup so far this season. Between playing the Redskins and Eagles the Giants defense has been a tale of two teams. The Browns are probably more like the Redskins than the Eagles in terms of firepower and all-around talent - and the Skins threw for 234 yards and 2 TDs - but they also completed 4  passes to the wrong colored jerseys. Garcia is usually better in terms of protecting the football than Patrick Ramsey, so anything over 200 to 230 yards and a couple of TDs with his usual dash of rushing yards is my expectation - making him around the top 7 to 10 QBs for the week.

Josh McCown, Ari at ATL
Against the Cardinals defense, at home, I fully expect the Falcons to throw up some points on the scoreboard this week. McCown will be pressed to throw the football, and often. The Falcons run defense has been strong through the first two games allowing only 123 yards on 38 carries - in 2 games and that doesn't bode well for Emmitt. The ole professor will open up the offense this week by necessity. I expect to see Larry Fitzgerald's best game to date. Put it this way. Ken Dorsey and Tim Rattay combined to complete 27 out of 46 passes for 286 yards with 2 TDs and 1 INT against Atlanta. Marc Bulger went 24 for 31 with 285 yards, 1 TD and 1 INT. McCown can run a little himself, so between he and Vick this should be a fun game to watch. The Falcons pass rush is solid with 8 sacks, and the Cardinals have allowed 7 themselves. McCown will be on the run, but he should make some plays. The Falcons defense is about pressure, but they are vulnerable because of it.

Rex Grossman, Chi at MIN
So far the Vikings have been just torched by the pass. It's not just Donovan McNabb either. That wouldn't be much of a problem. Vinny freaking Testaverde broke some off on the Vikings in the season opener making them the 2nd best opponent for QBs after 2 weeks - 300 yds/gm and 3 TDs - no picks. I'm sure that will change as Rex makes a visit to the dome. The Vikings defense should be better this year, but after watching the Bears pay their respect to the Packers in Lambeau, anything is possible. Grossman only threw 18 passes last week completing 10 of them for 132 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT.  The Bears will need to score 3-4 TDs this week because Minnesota will. Looks for Grossman to throw 25 or more times this week maybe topping 200 yards with a TD and INT. Not outstanding, but manageable if you're in a pinch with Brady, Pennington, Delhomme or Bledsoe on the bye.

Vinny Testaverde, Dal at WAS
He's actually listed here because the Redskins are a tough opponent this week, and it's a road game. The Cowboys have been light's out so far this year throwing the football. That's what happens when you don't run the ball well (and you play the Vikings). The Redskins are allowing 200 yds/gm through two games with 1 TD and 1 INT. Vinny, on the other hand, has been red hot - throwing for 677 yards (1st) with 2 TDs and 3 INTs. If anything, Vinny could be over-rated heading into this game, knowing that he'll probably throw for 250 yards, but he won't give you anything with his legs and his TD to INT ratio is flat - and not likely to go up on the road against their biggest rival. If he manages to throws, say, 2 TDs and 1 INT, then he slides up into the top 10 or 15 again. So, you can roll the dice with the old guy, but my gut says he's more like a top 20 QB this week throwing 1 TD and maybe 1 or 2 INTs this week. So, I'd personally avoid him, but your mileage may vary of course.

Kurt Warner, NYG vs Cle
The Browns have allowed 257 passing yards per game and they've also lost Courtney Brown for good perhaps this time, and DT Gerard Warren for a few weeks. That should get the two of you who are excited about Kurt's performances thus far including the deep strike to Tim Carter last week for a TD. Well, that was the good news. The bad news is the Browns have allowed 1 TD while intercepting 5 passes in just two games. The Browns defense appears weakened on paper, how it plays out could be entirely different, especially knowing that Warner could either go bonkers or turn over the football as many times as he's hurt his hand or thumb. Similar to Vinny, Warner better have a good TD day, otherwise he's fairly useless. No rushing numbers and he's just as likely to throw as many picks or lose as many fumbles compared to how many TD throws he makes.

Rich Gannon, OAK vs TB
Call it the karma play if you want. The Bucs defense still looks pretty darn good to me, so I don't know that I'd want any part of that karma. Either way, Gannon will have a little extra motivation - as will Warren Sapp - and a few players on both sides of the field. Gannon is the 9th ranked QB so far but this matchup is pretty dreadful. If he shows solid pose, leadership and the Raiders win this game.. then he could be a decent fantasy QB, though I suspect he'll be around the middle of the pack this week - 15th to 18th..

Running Backs

T.J. Duckett & Justin Griffith, ATL vs Ari
Warrick Dunn is officially listed as questionable on this week's injury report with a sprained knee (MCL). He has not yet practiced this week but is expected to give it a shot on Thursday, after which we'll probably have a much better idea of how much or if he'll play against the Cardinals. Speaking of which, Arizona has allowed 174 yds rushing per game to opposing backs so far after being drubbed thoroughly by Marshall Faulk and Steven Jackson in the opener, then last week by the Patriots Corey Dillon. If Dunn doesn't go, expect a lot more from both T.J. Duckett and Justin Griffith. Duckett, of course, is the obvious choice and a former 1st round pick, so that's hardly a surprise. What might be surprising, however, is Griffith - who could actually log as many touches as Duckett considering his versatility and dependability as far as blocking and picking up blitzes (a definite weakness in Duckett's game). Griffith showed his value last week both as a runner and as a receiver, so the REAL sleeper here in my opinion is Griffith. If Dunn plays, I think the Falcons could very well lighten his load either way and Griffith could benefit either way.

Duce Staley & Jerome Bettis, Pit at MIA
With a rookie QB making his first start, on the road, against one of the top pass defenses in the NFL - we expect Big Ben to struggle and produce a few turnovers along the way. That is, unless Bill Cowher can limit how much he's exposed to the Dolphins pass rush and the pressure that rides on his shoulders. Look for Cowher to really concentrate on the ground attack this week, and for good reason. The Dolphins interior linemen are hurting as Tim Bowens isn't back and healthy yet and Larry Chester was injured last week and placed on season-ending IR. Adewale Ogunleye is gone, too. The Dolphins defense has held up pretty well so far, but I fully expect the CHIN to be sticking out this Sunday and the Steelers to test their interior strength early and often with Bettis and Staley both handling the rock as they attempt to wear down and get physical in the trenches with the fish. Staley is a decent play already, but his value has gone South after Bettis vultured 3 TDs from him and Verron Haynes ate into his 3rd down playing time last week. Well, Haynes is iffy this week so expect Duce to be cut loose on more 3rd downs, if not all of them this week with Bettis still handling the rock near the goal line. Both players hurt each other's value ultimately, but you could do worse than reach for either back this week, but by all accounts Bettis is clearly a home run swing depending on whether he scores, or not.

Dominick Rhodes, IND vs GB
Edgerrin has a hamstring injury that has him questionable for this coming week against the Packers. He practiced Wednesday morning briefly, but was held out in the afternoon. This prompted the upgrade from doubtful to questionable. The key for Rhodes and Edgerrin will be Thursday's practice. Head coach Tony Dungy had the following to say Wednesday evening, "I would not anticipate him playing, but if he practices tomorrow, that would be a step toward playing. If he can't practice, that will tell us something else." Obviously, if James is held out this week then Rhodes immediately leaps into the top 10 potentially as the Packers run defense was softened by the loss of DT Grady Jackson in week one. Without Jackson, the Packers were steamrolled by the visiting Bears and RB Thomas Jones. The Packers won't be at home this week, and the Colts produced big rushing numbers against two well-respected run defenses from a year ago in Tennessee and New England. My gut instinct says that if Edge sits, and Dominick plays, we should see some big numbers, if not very solid starter-quality fantasy stats that in many leagues could be available off the waiver wire.

Aaron Stecker & Ki-Jana Carter, NO at STL
The Rams were pummeled by the Falcons offensive attack last week. The Saints will be without starter Deuce McAllister so we really don't have an idea just how well they'll be able to move the ball on the ground with Aaron Stecker and Ki-Jana Carter. They may not run the ball well at all. At least Stecker gave us reason to be semi-excited catching 6 passes out of the backfield last week after replacing Deuce. Carter will also get the call this week as both backs are expected to split the load with Stecker being more of the primary ball carrier. It's difficult to predict just how well Stecker will fare, or how much he'll split carries, but he's the better bet and with McAllister expected to miss more than a month, he's a no-brainer to grab as a possible waiver wire plug-n-play option. The Rams are the 4th best matchup for RBs through 2 games, so not the biggest sample size, but it's a good sign nevertheless - allowing 98 rush yds/gm, 51 receiving yds/gm with 4 TDs to opposing backs so far. If Emmitt Smith can go for nearly 100 yards against them I think Stecker has a decent shot behind the Saints offensive line with a damn good set of WRs to keep the Rams honest and from stacking the line. The Rams are also allowing 5.7 ypc so far, which looks mighty inviting for Stecker's potential owners this week.

Derrick Blaylock, KC vs Hou
As of Thursday morning, Priest Holmes is reportedly not practicing yet and appears likely to be held out this Sunday against the Texans. What a shame for Priest owners. This is a matchup all owners of Holmes were looking forward to.. If Holmes doesn't go, Blaylock - and not former 1st round pick Larry Johnson will get the nod. Blaylock is a good all-around back who can catch the ball, block and has shown great speed and improved power running between the tackles. Dicky V says Blaylock does everything well, but added that Johnson will also play and contribute in the absence of Priest. That said, the handcuff to have right now appears to be Blaylock, who would be a solid, but perhaps not a great start by any means this week.

Kevin Jones, DET vs Phi
Jones looked much better in this 2nd start after running tentatively in the season opener. Everyone is anxiously awaiting his first breakout game and while the Eagles defense appears to be better than either Houston or Chicago, there are concerns that they haven't been and still might not be the very tough against the run. After two games against the Giants and Vikings, the Eagles are allowing 171 combined yards/gm to opposing backs with 2 TDs, but more alarming is the 7.4 yards per carry - easily the highest in the league. Granted, it's a small sample and there's lots of anomalies with stats after just two weeks, but it's a sign that could either lead to bigger problems for the Eagles or go away as they work hard to address their deficiencies. Jones is still splitting carries with Artose Pinner, so he's got some limits to his fantasy value until Mooch's committee is broken up and Jones becomes the featured guy on a more full-time basis. With so many backs hurt and bye weeks beginning, Jones is at least a starter with great talent and potential - and he's playing at home against team whose defense is much more renowned for turnovers and their secondary - so it's not out of the question that Jones could be a serviceable #2 back this week.

ReShard Lee, Dal at WAS
Julius Jones is out for probably the entire year. Richie Anderson is probably going to serve in a limited capacity to some degree this week after sitting out last week. That leaves Eddie "2.3" George and ReShard Lee as the lone backs for the Tuna to go up against the much improved Redskins run defense. Lee is definitely a reach, but there is more opportunity in Dallas than some might be willing to concede. Personally, I'm not optimistic about George carrying the load the rest of the season and think both Anderson and Lee will have value. If you're hard pressed, and you're sitting on Lee with questionable choices as alternatives, give the guy a shot. After only seeing him run a limited amount this year I already believe that as a runner he's probably going to be more productive than George. However, George will always have a role because he protects Vinny - a MUST. He's adept at blocking and picking up blitzes, while I don't know how good Lee is or isn't at that. If Lee shows in practice that he can handle those duties, I would have to believe his role would increase as the weeks pass.

NFL Backups most likely to be useful if you're really hurting..

Steven Jackson, STL vs NO
The Saints have been abused thus far on the ground by the 49ers and Seahawks. They are the #1 matchup after two weeks for opposing backs - allowing 175 yds rushing per game and a total of 6 TDs to RBs. Meanwhile, Marshall Faulk left last week's game briefly as he tweaked his knee, but later returned and it appears he's fine for the most part. After all, I don't really think he's "fine".. but he's Marshall and as long as he can play - he'll be out on the field. Last week, the Rams didn't run the ball much, which we expect to change this week. Jackson looks like he'll get some goal line work and frequently spell Marshall to help keep them both fresh and healthy. Against the Saints, I wouldn't be surprised to see Jackson top 50 yards and possibly find the end zone.

Wide Receivers

Andre Davis, Cle at NYG
The Giants are a great matchup for opposing QBs and WRs. Andre Davis is a ticking time bomb waiting to have a breakout game, and I think this week it could be here. Of course, Quincy Morgan is pretty much in the same discussion, so we have to include his name, but Davis is the guy who can be both a possession receiver and a big play guy downfield. With Kellen Winslow likely gone for the year, look for Davis, Morgan and Dennis Northcutt to all be more productive. The tricky part is just finding which one will go off on the week you want to start them. Laveranues Coles had a field day last week as did Terrell Owens in week 1. I'm sticking my neck out here and I think Davis finishes in the top 20 this week.. higher if he scores a TD. As I type that I fully realize it could be any one of these three that break out, but I look for one or two good games from them combined.

Bobby Engram, SEA vs SF
The 49ers were hurting last week without Mike Rumph in the lineup. Rookie Shawntae Spencer was picked on and Aaron Brooks had no problems carving them up for big numbers. This week they slide up the coast to visit the Seahawks, whose offense is on par with Atlanta and New Orleans, both of whom had great success against them. All three of the Saints WRs scored last week. I like Hasselbeck to have a good game this week with Engram being a sneaky play. He's perfectly capable of being a top 20 receiver 3 or 4 weeks a year. The matchup is favorable this week, the 49ers have been beaten consistently and Hasselbeck is prime for a big game in front of the home crowd. Darrell Jackson and Koren Robinson are prime plays, but Engram is the guy who could be a great waiver wire pick up and start if you're fortunate and he's available.

Larry Fitzgerald, Ari at ATL
I expect Fitz's best game this week. He disappointed last week, but still finished with 5 catches but for just 36 yards. He remains frequently targeted and McCown will be under the gun to throw this week against the Falcons defense who will probably stuff Emmitt and force the issue. Fitz could be targeted 8 to 12 times this week and if he finished with 5 to 8 catches he could convert one for a TD. The Cardinals have not moved the ball terribly well so far this year, but the Falcons have been torched by opposing QBs, so there's hope for a decent day out of McCown, Fitzgerald and let's not completely forget about Bryant Johnson either. The Falcons have allowed the 3rd most fantasy pts to opposing WRs as well after 2 games.

Bobby Wade, Chi at MIN
Wade appears to be enjoying a growing role in the Bears offense. Even before the Lovie Smith regime began Wade was catching on late last year pushing for more playing time as a rookie. Now, he's a starter opposite David Terrell and he looks like a great fit in Terry Shea's offense. Wade reminds me of Bobby Engram a bit. The Bears will probably be throwing the football more this week and I suspect Wade could have a definite role in the Bears game plan again this week. Similar to Engram above, I think he's a good pick for around 4 to 7 catches with 50 to 60 yards. If the Bears end up throwing the ball more than I expect, he could have an outside shot of being among the top 30 WRs this week. Terrell had the big week in the season opener, while last week they only threw 18 passes with Wade the leader with 3 receptions - not to mention 2 rushing attempts for 23 yards. Wade looks like he'll get the end around on occasion also. The player who was on everyone's "watch list" in the pre-season is Justin Gage. He's been relatively quiet so far, but given this matchup and his ability to use his size as an advantage in the red zone, he could also be a factor, or deeper sleeper.

Nate Burleson, MIN vs Chi
Burleson is slowly growing into his role opposite the playmaking Randy Moss. The best thing Burleson will always have going for him is single-coverage almost all the time. Chicago's pass defense is reeling right now with both of their starters heading into the season out for a long period of time. Jerry Azumah and Charles Tillman are out for at least a month, if not two, while R.W. McQuarters will be locked down on Randy Moss with the help of Mike Green probably. That leaves Burleson to matchup with Todd McMillon or rookie Nathan Vasher. The guy who will really benefit in all of this is Marcus Robinson, who should draw one heckuva matchup with his size as a downfield target and the double teams rolling towards Moss. Lastly, Kelly Campbell will be working the slot as the team's 4th WR and he could draw a very favorable matchup against Vasher. Robinson will likely get some Mike Green as the Bears nickel corner, but now that Mike Brown is gone for the year, too - the Bears have 3/4ths of their secondary being replaced with Green as the lone remaining healthy starter. Upgrade all of these Vikings receivers, but my focus is on Burleson and Robinson as a long-shot, home run gamble.

Dez White, ATL vs Ari
Vick narrowly missed a wide open White last week but overthrew him on what would've been a long TD. The Cardinals have allowed 213 yds/gm to opposing WRs in their first two games showing a vulnerability even if it was against two strong passing teams in St. Louis and New England. The Falcons spread the ball around and White could bust a long play this week, he's due. The Cardinals defense is young and could overreact to Vick's running leaving guys open downfield.

Corey Bradford, Jabar Gaffney & Derick Armstrong, Hou at KC
The Texans passing game is on the upswing after a visit to Ford Field that resulted in a loss. The Texans are off to a slow start at 0-2 but at least they are throwing the football reasonably well and their young players are coming together nicely. Gaffney hasn't quite emerged into a top flight WR as the Texans would've hoped, but it's far too soon to give up on him. Andre Johnson is obviously the team's star WR of the future and Derick Armstrong is proving that he's capable of producing if given an opportunity. The problem is Corey Bradford continues to start because of his speed and ability to break the big play. This week is a good opportunity for Bradford, Gaffney or Armstrong to get busy. I expect Johnson to have his fun and one of these guys to possible score a TD as well. Gaffney and Armstrong are the deep sleepers but both are perfectly capable and talented.

Johnnie Morton, Dante Hall & Richard Smith, KC vs Hou
Eddie Kennison is hurt. Johnnie Morton is a tease and anything but someone you want in your lineup on a regular basis. While Hall and Smith flirt with bigger roles and one will start opposite Morton this week while the other plays the slot against the visiting Houston Texans who are an excellent matchup from a fantasy perspective. Houston's allowed a league-high 4 TDs to opposing WRs through 2 games. Morton is obviously the lowest hanging fruit here, but the deep sleepers are Dante Hall and more appropriately Richard Smith. I wouldn't be surprised at all if Morton is held in check by Aaron Glenn while Hall and Smith both produce better than anticipated numbers against the rookie Dunta Robinson and nickel DB DeMarcus Faggins.

Brandon Lloyd, SF at SEA
You know how it goes don't you? As soon as you bench Lloyd he'll catch not just one TD, but two just to give you an excuse to drink a few more cold ones and drown in your misery of starting the guy who scored last week but this week throws up the 2 catches for 24 yard box score. No question, after two weeks, as a Lloyd owner myself in my primary league, I'm concerned. The good thing is he's being targeted, the bad thing is he's not converting - mostly because he's getting double teams and opposing defenses are rolling coverage towards his side of the field. Seattle has three good corners, and might not necessarily roll the coverage towards Lloyd as New Orleans and Atlanta did. They may not need to. No matter how you slice it, this is a tough matchup for the 49ers WRs as a whole. Both Curtis Conway and Cedrick Wilson outpaced Lloyd in the first two weeks making Lloyd more of a legitimate sleeper or reach this week. He's been held down, and let's not lose complete faith in him just yet, but play him cautiously and exercise other options if they make sense, but you'll probably want to have those few extra beers anyway.

Tight Ends

Boo Williams, New Orleans
Going by his draft positions, he's no sleeper at all. But going by his productions so far, it's justified. With Deuce McAllister out for over a month the Saints offense will certainly adjust. Whether it means more Boo and Ernie Conwell remains to be seen. Williams is an outstanding pass-catching receiver as a tight end and the Rams allowed 44 yds/gm to TEs through 2 games. What makes Williams a reach or a sleeper is the fact that he and Conwell hurt each other's upside because they end up splitting numbers. If one or the other gets hurt the other's value would skyrocket as Boo's did over the 2nd half of last year.

Jeb Putzier, DEN vs SD
Putzier has yet to have even close to a breakout performance and Dwayne Carswell will certainly get a couple TDs through the course of the season to tease those who give Putzier a shot. He's a good receiver and can run well. The Chargers have been tough on TEs so far but Houston didn't feature Miller or Bruener that week, but Chris Baker scored a TD and had a decent game against them last week. The Broncos success on the ground against the Chargers could be the perfect setup for Plummer's bootleg to the tight end or full back. They run it pretty often in the red zone and this week it could be in the script. 2 to 3 catches is my expectation but just like any of these guys a TD would put them over the top and within reach.

Bubba Franks, GB at Ind
The Colts were beaten by Daniel Graham and Erron Kinney pretty good the first two weeks. They've allowed 136 yards and 1 TD combined. Franks isn't much of a deep threat, hardly.. He's purely a goal line threat these days outside of an occasional hiccup when he might go for a 4 or 5 catch day. Franks has 20 TDs over the last three years, but he's downward spiraling going from 9 to 7 to 4 last year and 0-fer so far this year. Green's fumble near the goal line may have Sherman thinking twice about the bootleg toss to Franks in the corner. Don't be fooled though, with Franks it's like a hit or miss proposition and there are definitely safer bets out there I hope..

Jerramy Stevens, SEA vs SF
The Seahawks have consistently featured their tight ends the past few seasons, but so far this year they've been relatively quiet. Stevens has the size to be a great red zone weapon for Hasselbeck, maybe this is the week he finally does something. The 49ers have allowed 41 yds/gm to opposing TEs with 1 TD. Stevens aggravated his knee in Wednesday's practice, but appears to be fine and is expected to start and play this weekend.

Richard Owens, MIN vs Chi
The Vikings have utilized their TEs a great deal in their first two games, but they are dropping like flies. Jimmy Kleinsasser is probably gone for the season and Jermaine Wiggins is out for 2-3 weeks after getting hurt in the 2nd half of Monday night's game. Owens caught 3 passes - on 3 targets - just as Wiggins caught all of his targeted passes early in the evening. Owens could be a sleeper again this week if he catches 3 to 5 passes. Then again, that's asking a lot for a guy who will be making his first NFL start. UPDATE: The Vikings just re-signed Sean Berton, who was with the team last year. It's expected that Owens, or possibly Berton, will start at TE for the Vikings in week 3 given the rash of injuries.

Aaron Shea, Cle at NYG
It's a reeeeaaal stretch, and I mean a long shot, but.. Winslow is out and his backup Steve Heiden is also out or at least doubtful for this week with an ankle injury. Yet when it comes right down to brass tacks, Shea - who expects to start at TE this week for the Browns, has a great matchup from a fantasy numbers producing perspective. The Giants LBs are young and vulnerable to play-action and bootlegs. The Redskins embarrassed them early in the game last week. The injuries to Winslow and Heiden combine to give Shea and Chad Mustard, who was re-signed on Monday, an opportunity to get on the field more, but the risk is that the Browns could revert back to more 3 WRs sets like last season meaning Dennis Northcutt's value and playing time increase. Shea is a long shot for sure. I can't emphasize that enough. He's not even in the top 50 tight ends. Heck, he hasn't even been in a box score yet this year, but it's worth noting the Giants have allowed 2 TDs and 67 yds/gm to opposing tight ends so far. Such propositions make watching the games more fun on Sunday.


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