Herman - Kicker Mania

2004 Kicking points
(top five are highlighted)

2004 Kicking ppg

2004 K defense

Week 6 matchup

TEAM

Current KICKER

stndrd
total

rnk

attmpt
total

rnk

bonus
total

rnk

avg

rnk

home

rnk

away

rnk

ppg allow

rnk

home factor

away factor

oppnt

Kdef
factor

score
avg

Math
Proj
I

Math
Proj
II

cheat
sheet
rank

Arizona

Neil Rackers

27

20

30

22

31

19

5.4

22

8.0

8

3.7

29

7.8

28

0.81

1.29

BYE

notes

misses: 58T

Atlanta

Jay Feely

32

13

32

20

33

16

6.4

17

6.7

16

6.0

18

4.8

4

0.77

1.32

SD

1.07

6.7

7.1

5.6

6

notes

The Falcons are one of only four teams that hasn't missed a FG yet. SD has given up some decent K points on the road.

Baltimore

Matt Stover

31

15

31

21

34

12

6.2

18

9.0

5

4.3

26

6.2

14

0.73

0.95

BYE

notes

Buffalo

Rian Lindell

15

31

18

31

15

32

3.8

31

4.5

26

3.0

32

7.8

27

1.34

0.96

Mia

0.93

4.5

4.2

5.8

28

notes

misses: 42WL
This could be a low scoring game… very low.

Carolina

John Kasay

15

31

18

31

17

31

3.8

31

3.0

30

4.5

23

7.0

21

1.21

1.04

@Phi

1.07

4.5

4.8

5.4

23

notes

misses: 52WL
As usual, beware the curse of the Super Bowl loser! Also, beware the team that you beat last year to get into the Super Bowl.

Chicago

Paul Edinger

18

28

27

26

18

28

4.5

27

2.5

31

6.5

14

8.5

31

1.14

1.07

Was

0.86

2.5

2.1

6.5

20

notes

misses: 27B, 45WL, 39WR
Edinger had one big game against the Viking, but has been quiet otherwise.

Cincinnati

Shayne Graham

30

17

33

17

32

18

7.5

10

9.5

2

5.5

20

5.8

13

1.21

0.71

@Cle

1.12

5.5

6.2

6.6

11

notes

misses: 38WR
Kicker myth #38: teams coming off a bye and visiting their cross-state rival usually hit a couple field goals.

Cleveland

Phil Dawson

40

3

40

6

44

3

8.0

4

6.5

18

9.0

3

6.8

20

1.12

1.11

Cin

0.71

6.5

4.6

7.4

24

notes

Dawson seems to have his big games on the road. He's at home this week.

Dallas

Billy Cundiff

17

30

23

30

18

28

4.3

29

4.5

26

4.0

27

8.8

32

1.67

0.69

Pit

1.01

4.5

4.6

6.5

25

notes

misses: 49RU, 52SH
Cundiff has not scored more than 5 points in any game this year.

Denver

Jason Elam

45

1

48

3

52

1

9.0

2

9.7

1

8.0

5

5.2

7

0.88

0.64

@Oak

1.17

8.0

9.3

7.1

1

notes

misses: 51SH
Elam is the only kicker ranked in the top five in all six scoring categories listed above.

Detroit

Jason Hanson

18

28

24

28

18

28

4.5

27

2.5

31

6.5

14

5.5

11

0.77

0.70

GB

0.98

2.5

2.4

5.0

14

notes

misses: 47WR, 48WR
Hanson has been rather quiet at home so far this year. A visit from the reeling Packers will change that.

Green bay

Ryan Longwell

27

20

33

17

30

20

5.4

22

4.7

25

6.5

14

5.6

12

0.46

0.98

@Det

0.77

6.5

5.0

5.5

16

notes

misses: 45RU, 52CR
In recent years, Longwell has been a solid weekly start. This year he is not.

Houston

Kris Brown

38

4

41

4

42

6

7.6

6

8.0

8

7.0

10

5.0

5

1.07

1.18

@Ten

0.69

7.0

4.8

6.3

22

notes

misses: 57SH
Tennessee has been tough at home against kickers so far.

Indianapolis

Mike Vanderjagt

33

9

39

7

35

11

6.6

13

7.0

13

6.3

17

6.4

15

0.75

1.20

BYE

notes

misses: Bryant 44WL; Vanderjagt 48WR.
The Colts released Matt Bryant (who is off to his next exciting adventure in Miami), so Vanderjagt should be back in the lineup next week as expected.

Jacksonville

Josh Scobee

21

27

24

28

23

27

4.2

30

5.0

24

3.7

29

6.4

15

0.85

1.09

KC

0.85

5.0

4.3

5.3

15

notes

misses: 35WR
The two preseason hypees (Scobee & Tynes) go head to head.

Kansas City

Lawrence Tynes

23

26

29

23

26

24

5.8

20

4.0

29

7.5

7

7.5

25

1.16

0.85

@Jac

0.85

7.5

6.4

6.6

8

notes

misses: 58WR, 47WR
Tynes has produced more points on the road this year… against good defenses to boot (Denver & Baltimore). He's on the road against a good D again this week.

Miami

Matt Bryant

24

25

27

26

24

4.8

26

4.3

28

5.5

20

6.6

18

0.68

0.93

@Buf

1.34

5.5

7.4

5.7

27

notes

misses: 46WR. Olindo Mare is OUT on the injury report. The Dolphins have signed Matt Bryant. Last week Bryant played for one of the best offenses (Indy) in the league. This week he plays for one of the worst. This week he goes up against one of the better defenses.

Minnesota

Morten Andersen

28

18

34

16

30

20

7.0

11

7.0

13

7.0

10

7.0

21

1.39

0.81

@NO

1.33

7.0

9.3

7.0

7

notes

misses: 44SH, 46WR.
Should be another shootout this week. Watch for a late FG to pad the lead (and to keep Andersen owners happy).

New England

Adam Vinatieri

33

9

36

14

36

9

8.3

3

7.5

11

9.0

3

5.3

9

0.84

0.93

Sea

0.54

7.5

4.1

6.8

17

notes

misses: 47WR
Seattle is second only to the Giants in kicking points allowed per game.

New Orleans

John Carney

38

4

41

4

43

5

7.6

6

6.0

20

10.0

2

7.0

21

1.33

0.98

Min

0.81

6.0

4.9

7.3

19

notes

misses: 51WL
The Saints will likely be playing catch-up in this game.

NY Giants

Steve Christie

38

4

53

1

44

3

7.6

6

8.5

6

7.0

10

3.6

1

0.44

0.88

BYE

notes

misses: 47SH, 51SH, 49WR, 30WL, 33WL.
Christie was very close to losing his job after the GB debacle. Coughlin gave him another chance and he responded in a big way, going 4 for 4 on FG's (31, 51, 47, 26)

NY Jets

Doug Brien

32

13

35

15

34

12

8.0

4

8.5

6

7.5

7

5.3

9

0.88

1.31

SF

1.37

8.5

11.6

6.6

2

notes

misses: 29WL
A favorable matchup for Mr. Brien.

Oakland

Sebastian Janikowsk

33

9

39

7

36

9

6.6

13

9.5

2

4.7

22

6.6

18

1.17

0.90

Den

0.64

9.5

6.1

6.6

18

notes

misses: 46WL, 35WR
Denver is not giving up many kicking points, especially on the road.

Philadelphia

David Akers

41

2

50

2

49

2

10.3

1

8.0

8

12.5

1

4.8

3

1.07

0.80

Car

1.04

8.0

8.3

7.5

3

notes

misses: 53WL, 39WR, 45WR
Did I mention that Akers is a must start every week?

Pittsburgh

Jeff Reed

28

18

37

11

33

16

5.6

21

6.7

16

4.0

27

7.6

26

1.22

1.01

@Dal

1.67

4.0

6.7

6.6

12

notes

misses: 48WL, 44WR, 45WL
Dallas is surrendering a whopping 13 ppg to visiting kickers.

San Diego

Nate Kaeding

38

4

38

10

41

7

7.6

6

7.3

12

8.0

5

7.4

24

0.82

1.07

@Atl

0.77

8.0

6.2

7.5

9

notes

Marty-ball has been good for the 3rd-round rookie, who has responded by making every kick.

Seattle

Josh Brown

26

23

29

23

28

22

6.5

16

9.5

2

3.5

31

4.0

2

0.68

0.54

@NE

0.84

3.5

2.9

5.3

21

notes

misses: 43WL
Brown has the biggest discrepancy between home scoring and road scoring in the league.

San Francisco

Todd Peterson

25

24

28

25

26

24

5.0

25

5.3

23

4.5

23

6.4

15

0.90

1.37

@NYJ

0.88

4.5

4.0

5.7

26

notes

misses: 46CR.
Peterson is the only kicker to score zero in a game this year. He's done it not once, but twice.

St. Louis

Jeff Wilkins

34

8

37

11

39

8

6.8

12

7.0

13

6.7

13

7.8

28

1.35

0.95

TB

1.26

7.0

8.8

7.3

5

notes

misses: 33WL
Last year he was the best, now he's just another kicker

Tampa Bay

Martin Gramatica

31

15

37

11

34

12

6.2

18

6.5

18

6.0

18

8.2

30

1.20

1.26

@StL

1.35

6.0

8.1

7.2

10

notes

misses: 44WL, 41WL
Tampa Bay on the road has been very kind to kickers.

Tennessee

Gary Anderson

33

9

39

7

34

12

6.6

13

5.5

22

7.3

9

5.2

7

0.69

1.09

Hou

1.18

5.5

6.5

5.9

4

notes

misses... Elling: 33WL; Anderson: 42B
Anderson vs. Andersen: After his big Monday night, Gary's lead over Morten is back up to 87 (same as when the season began).

Washington

John Hall

27

20

33

17

27

23

5.4

22

6.0

20

4.5

23

5.0

5

0.75

0.86

@Chi

1.14

4.5

5.1

5.2

13

notes

misses: 50WR, 41RU
Most teams have allowed more TD's than FG's. Chicago is an exception, this opposing kickers have fared well against them.

1.

All stats are based on Standard Scoring of 3 points for field goals and 1 point for extra points

(except for the Bonus Total column which increases 40-49 yard FG's to 4 points, and FG's of 50 yards and over to 5 points)

2.

"Attempted" = maximum number of kicking points the team could have had if they made every kick

3.

The Kdefensive "factors" are the median by which teams allow kicking points, as compared to their opponents average scoring

(i.e. smaller numbers under 1.0 equal better kicking defense, larger numbers over 1.0 = not so good)

4.

Weekly matchup numbers: the "Mathematical Projection I" is the "Kscoring" multiplied by the "Kdefensive Factor"

Mathematical Projection II is simply the average of the Kicking ppg scored and the Kicking points allowed by the opponent

5.

Misses key: SH = short, WR = wide right, WL = wide left, CR = cross bar, RU = right upright, LU = left upright, B = blocked, T = tipped

Kicker Mania - thru week 5 & looking ahead to week 6
by Mike Herman, Exclusive to Footballguys.com
		2004 Kicking points (top five are highlighted)						2004 Kicking ppg						2004 K defense				Week 6 matchup
TEAM	Current KICKER	stndrd total	rnk	attmpt total	rnk	bonus total	rnk	avg	rnk	home	rnk	away	rnk	ppg allow	rnk	home factor	away factor	oppnt	Kdef factor	score avg	Math Proj I	Math Proj II	cheat sheet rank
Arizona	Neil Rackers	27	20	30	22	31	19	5.4	22	8.0	8	3.7	29	7.8	28	0.81	1.29	BYE
notes	misses: 58T
Atlanta	Jay Feely	32	13	32	20	33	16	6.4	17	6.7	16	6.0	18	4.8	4	0.77	1.32	SD	1.07	6.7	7.1	5.6	6
notes	The Falcons are one of only four teams that hasn't missed a FG yet. SD has given up some decent K points on the road.
Baltimore	Matt Stover	31	15	31	21	34	12	6.2	18	9.0	5	4.3	26	6.2	14	0.73	0.95	BYE
notes
Buffalo	Rian Lindell	15	31	18	31	15	32	3.8	31	4.5	26	3.0	32	7.8	27	1.34	0.96	Mia	0.93	4.5	4.2	5.8	28
notes	misses: 42WL This could be a low scoring game… very low.
Carolina	John Kasay	15	31	18	31	17	31	3.8	31	3.0	30	4.5	23	7.0	21	1.21	1.04	@Phi	1.07	4.5	4.8	5.4	23
notes	misses: 52WL As usual, beware the curse of the Super Bowl loser! Also, beware the team that you beat last year to get into the Super Bowl.
Chicago	Paul Edinger	18	28	27	26	18	28	4.5	27	2.5	31	6.5	14	8.5	31	1.14	1.07	Was	0.86	2.5	2.1	6.5	20
notes	misses: 27B, 45WL, 39WR Edinger had one big game against the Viking, but has been quiet otherwise.
Cincinnati	Shayne Graham	30	17	33	17	32	18	7.5	10	9.5	2	5.5	20	5.8	13	1.21	0.71	@Cle	1.12	5.5	6.2	6.6	11
notes	misses: 38WR Kicker myth #38: teams coming off a bye and visiting their cross-state rival usually hit a couple field goals.
Cleveland	Phil Dawson	40	3	40	6	44	3	8.0	4	6.5	18	9.0	3	6.8	20	1.12	1.11	Cin	0.71	6.5	4.6	7.4	24
notes	Dawson seems to have his big games on the road. He's at home this week.
Dallas	Billy Cundiff	17	30	23	30	18	28	4.3	29	4.5	26	4.0	27	8.8	32	1.67	0.69	Pit	1.01	4.5	4.6	6.5	25
notes	misses: 49RU, 52SH Cundiff has not scored more than 5 points in any game this year.
Denver	Jason Elam	45	1	48	3	52	1	9.0	2	9.7	1	8.0	5	5.2	7	0.88	0.64	@Oak	1.17	8.0	9.3	7.1	1
notes	misses: 51SH Elam is the only kicker ranked in the top five in all six scoring categories listed above.
Detroit	Jason Hanson	18	28	24	28	18	28	4.5	27	2.5	31	6.5	14	5.5	11	0.77	0.70	GB	0.98	2.5	2.4	5.0	14
notes	misses: 47WR, 48WR Hanson has been rather quiet at home so far this year. A visit from the reeling Packers will change that.
Green bay	Ryan Longwell	27	20	33	17	30	20	5.4	22	4.7	25	6.5	14	5.6	12	0.46	0.98	@Det	0.77	6.5	5.0	5.5	16
notes	misses: 45RU, 52CR In recent years, Longwell has been a solid weekly start. This year he is not.
Houston	Kris Brown	38	4	41	4	42	6	7.6	6	8.0	8	7.0	10	5.0	5	1.07	1.18	@Ten	0.69	7.0	4.8	6.3	22
notes	misses: 57SH Tennessee has been tough at home against kickers so far.
Indianapolis	Mike Vanderjagt	33	9	39	7	35	11	6.6	13	7.0	13	6.3	17	6.4	15	0.75	1.20	BYE
notes	misses: Bryant 44WL; Vanderjagt 48WR. The Colts released Matt Bryant (who is off to his next exciting adventure in Miami), so Vanderjagt should be back in the lineup next week as expected.
Jacksonville	Josh Scobee	21	27	24	28	23	27	4.2	30	5.0	24	3.7	29	6.4	15	0.85	1.09	KC	0.85	5.0	4.3	5.3	15
notes	misses: 35WR The two preseason hypees (Scobee & Tynes) go head to head.
Kansas City	Lawrence Tynes	23	26	29	23	26	24	5.8	20	4.0	29	7.5	7	7.5	25	1.16	0.85	@Jac	0.85	7.5	6.4	6.6	8
notes	misses: 58WR, 47WR Tynes has produced more points on the road this year… against good defenses to boot (Denver & Baltimore). He's on the road against a good D again this week.
Miami	Matt Bryant	24	25	27	26	26	24	4.8	26	4.3	28	5.5	20	6.6	18	0.68	0.93	@Buf	1.34	5.5	7.4	5.7	27
notes	misses: 46WR. Olindo Mare is OUT on the injury report. The Dolphins have signed Matt Bryant. Last week Bryant played for one of the best offenses (Indy) in the league. This week he plays for one of the worst. This week he goes up against one of the better defenses.
Minnesota	Morten Andersen	28	18	34	16	30	20	7.0	11	7.0	13	7.0	10	7.0	21	1.39	0.81	@NO	1.33	7.0	9.3	7.0	7
notes	misses: 44SH, 46WR. Should be another shootout this week. Watch for a late FG to pad the lead (and to keep Andersen owners happy).
New England	Adam Vinatieri	33	9	36	14	36	9	8.3	3	7.5	11	9.0	3	5.3	9	0.84	0.93	Sea	0.54	7.5	4.1	6.8	17
notes	misses: 47WR Seattle is second only to the Giants in kicking points allowed per game.
New Orleans	John Carney	38	4	41	4	43	5	7.6	6	6.0	20	10.0	2	7.0	21	1.33	0.98	Min	0.81	6.0	4.9	7.3	19
notes	misses: 51WL The Saints will likely be playing catch-up in this game.
NY Giants	Steve Christie	38	4	53	1	44	3	7.6	6	8.5	6	7.0	10	3.6	1	0.44	0.88	BYE
notes	misses: 47SH, 51SH, 49WR, 30WL, 33WL. Christie was very close to losing his job after the GB debacle. Coughlin gave him another chance and he responded in a big way, going 4 for 4 on FG's (31, 51, 47, 26)
NY Jets	Doug Brien	32	13	35	15	34	12	8.0	4	8.5	6	7.5	7	5.3	9	0.88	1.31	SF	1.37	8.5	11.6	6.6	2
notes	misses: 29WL A favorable matchup for Mr. Brien.
Oakland	Sebastian Janikowski	33	9	39	7	36	9	6.6	13	9.5	2	4.7	22	6.6	18	1.17	0.90	Den	0.64	9.5	6.1	6.6	18
notes	misses: 46WL, 35WR Denver is not giving up many kicking points, especially on the road.
Philadelphia	David Akers	41	2	50	2	49	2	10.3	1	8.0	8	12.5	1	4.8	3	1.07	0.80	Car	1.04	8.0	8.3	7.5	3
notes	misses: 53WL, 39WR, 45WR Did I mention that Akers is a must start every week?
Pittsburgh	Jeff Reed	28	18	37	11	33	16	5.6	21	6.7	16	4.0	27	7.6	26	1.22	1.01	@Dal	1.67	4.0	6.7	6.6	12
notes	misses: 48WL, 44WR, 45WL Dallas is surrendering a whopping 13 ppg to visiting kickers.
San Diego	Nate Kaeding	38	4	38	10	41	7	7.6	6	7.3	12	8.0	5	7.4	24	0.82	1.07	@Atl	0.77	8.0	6.2	7.5	9
notes	Marty-ball has been good for the 3rd-round rookie, who has responded by making every kick.
Seattle	Josh Brown	26	23	29	23	28	22	6.5	16	9.5	2	3.5	31	4.0	2	0.68	0.54	@NE	0.84	3.5	2.9	5.3	21
notes	misses: 43WL Brown has the biggest discrepancy between home scoring and road scoring in the league.
San Francisco	Todd Peterson	25	24	28	25	26	24	5.0	25	5.3	23	4.5	23	6.4	15	0.90	1.37	@NYJ	0.88	4.5	4.0	5.7	26
notes	misses: 46CR. Peterson is the only kicker to score zero in a game this year. He's done it not once, but twice.
St. Louis	Jeff Wilkins	34	8	37	11	39	8	6.8	12	7.0	13	6.7	13	7.8	28	1.35	0.95	TB	1.26	7.0	8.8	7.3	5
notes	misses: 33WL Last year he was the best, now he's just another kicker
Tampa Bay	Martin Gramatica	31	15	37	11	34	12	6.2	18	6.5	18	6.0	18	8.2	30	1.20	1.26	@StL	1.35	6.0	8.1	7.2	10
notes	misses: 44WL, 41WL Tampa Bay on the road has been very kind to kickers.
Tennessee	Gary Anderson	33	9	39	7	34	12	6.6	13	5.5	22	7.3	9	5.2	7	0.69	1.09	Hou	1.18	5.5	6.5	5.9	4
notes	misses... Elling: 33WL; Anderson: 42B Anderson vs. Andersen: After his big Monday night, Gary's lead over Morten is back up to 87 (same as when the season began).
Washington	John Hall	27	20	33	17	27	23	5.4	22	6.0	20	4.5	23	5.0	5	0.75	0.86	@Chi	1.14	4.5	5.1	5.2	13
notes	misses: 50WR, 41RU Most teams have allowed more TD's than FG's. Chicago is an exception, this opposing kickers have fared well against them.

NOTES:
1.	All stats are based on Standard Scoring of 3 points for field goals and 1 point for extra points
	(except for the Bonus Total column which increases 40-49 yard FG's to 4 points, and FG's of 50 yards and over to 5 points)
2.	"Attempted" = maximum number of kicking points the team could have had if they made every kick
3.	The Kdefensive "factors" are the median by which teams allow kicking points, as compared to their opponents average scoring
	(i.e. smaller numbers under 1.0 equal better kicking defense, larger numbers over 1.0 = not so good)
4.	Weekly matchup numbers: the "Mathematical Projection I" is the "Kscoring" multiplied by the "Kdefensive Factor"
	Mathematical Projection II is simply the average of the Kicking ppg scored and the Kicking points allowed by the opponent
5.	Misses key: SH = short, WR = wide right, WL = wide left, CR = cross bar, RU = right upright, LU = left upright, B = blocked, T = tipped

Rk	Kicker
1	Jason Elam
2	Doug Brien
3	David Akers
4	Gary Anderson
5	Jeff Wilkins
6	Jay Feely
7	Morten Andersen
8	Lawrence Tynes
9	Nate Kaeding
10	Martin Gramatica
11	Shayne Graham
12	Jeff Reed
13	John Hall
14	Jason Hanson
15	Josh Scobee
16	Ryan Longwell
17	Adam Vinatieri
18	Sebastian Janikowski
19	John Carney
20	Paul Edinger
21	Josh Brown
22	Kris Brown
23	John Kasay
24	Phil Dawson
25	Billy Cundiff
26	Todd Peterson
27	Matt Bryant
28	Rian Lindell