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DALLAS COWBOYS By David Baker Sleeper: Dat Nguyen (5'11" 243) was the third round pick for Dallas in 1999. After a big year in 2001, many IDP loyalists expected even bigger things from him in 2002. An injury in 2002 limited Dat to about half the season, but he rebounded nicely in 2003 for 88 tackles, 31 assists and a pair of sacks. He even had 11 passes defended and 2 forced fumbles. In many leagues, his numbers were top 20 stuff. There was even some talk of him making the Pro Bowl. However, as he enters the peak years of his career, Nguyen sometimes gets little attention in IDP drafts. Nguyen is a three down linebacker, something you see less and less of in the NFL these days. Although he might not be the biggest and tallest LB out there, he's smart and instinctive. He religiously studies game film to put him in the right spot to make plays and has proven to be very effective against the run. Even his coverage skills have greatly improved. The only mark on him has been an inability to stay on the field, as Nguyen has twice missed significant time during a season due to injuries. Although Head Coach Bill Parcells has a reputation for liking bigger LB's, his affection for Nguyen has been prominent. Look for Dat Nguyen to have a career year in that increasingly effective Dallas defense. Bust: Darren Woodson (6'1" 219) is old by NFL standards. He's now 35. He was a 2nd round pick by Dallas way back in 1992. He's coming off another solid season with 65 tackles and 20 assists with a sack and INT to boot. But he's lost a step and does not match up well anymore with the faster receivers coming out of the slot. He's already admitted this might be his final season. Then, a couple of weeks ago Woodson had surgery to remove a herniated disk. He's scheduled to be sidelined 6-8 weeks, which means he at the very least misses the season opener. In an attempt to come back quicker, Woodson overworked himself and needed an epidural to alleviate the pain. Although Woodson is attempting to return earlier, the doctors believe a more likely scenario is for him to return by game 3. Although his courage is admirable, along with his distinguished career, all signs do not point to a recipe for FF success this year. Avoid him. NEW YORK GIANTS By David Baker Sleeper: Shaun Williams (6'1" 218) joined the NY Giants after being drafted in the first round in 1998. He seemed meant to be a Giant. He was even born the same exact day Giants Stadium opened. Needless to say there was a lot expected from him. For the most part, Williams has fulfilled those expectations. The main problem for Williams has been staying on the field. He missed parts of his first two seasons. He then had solid seasons from 2000 to 2002, averaging over 70 tackles and 20 assists per year during that period. Despite some solid years, Williams never quite reached that elite level projected by him by those in the NY staff that drafted him. Last year was perhaps Williams roughest year. He generally played poorly, making coverage mistakes, and then missed the last 6 games due to a knee injury. But he has worked on those aspects with the coaching staff and is now healthy and 100%. Williams is known for his punishing hits and excels in run support. The Giants have put in a new defensive system that should reduce his coverage mistakes and help him understand his responsibilities. Shaun Williams weighs less than he has since college. The lighter weight helped Williams rehab from knee surgery and he's apparently quicker. His new coaches have been pleased with his ability to pick up the defense. Bust: Many thought Nick Greisen (6'1" 245) had the lead for becoming the starting MLB for the Giants on opening day. Greisen, who just recently turned 25 years old, was the Giants 5th round pick in 2002. His two-year NFL career consists of 23 total games, 10 tackles, 6 assists and 1 sack. Most of his playing time to date has been on special teams. Those aren't exactly the numbers you're looking for to become the starting MLB. Despite that, when the Giants cut Mike Barrow last March 10 in a salary cap maneuver, the starting MLB position was thrust upon Greisen. All looked well for the young Greisen, who was working extra hard to be the man on opening day. Then, the former Wisconsin star suddenly was hit with a hamstring injury and his already shaky stranglehold on the position took a dip for the worse. On the second play of his first preseason game as starter, Greisen dropped back in coverage and strained his left hamstring. The perception at the Giants camp was that Greisen needed a strong camp to show he could handle his new promotion. The injury might only keep him out for a week, but Greisen needed all the playing time possible to retain the job. Unproven Quincy Monk no suddenly appears in the picture. Head Coach Tom Coughlin is not known for his tolerance of injured players. For me, there's too much risk in drafting Greisen now. PHILADELPHIA EAGLES By David Baker Sleeper: Michael Lewis (6'1" 211) is just coming into his own. The talented second round pick in 2002 became the starter the last four games his rookie season and hasn't looked back. Frankly, if it weren't for a heart condition, Lewis likely would have been a first round choice. In 2003, Lewis ended up with 65 tackles, 20 assists, 2 sacks and 3 INTs Lewis was forced to mature quickly in 2003, as he witnessed his fellow Eagle DBs get hurt right and left. At various times last year, Brian Dawkins, Bobby Taylor and Troy Vincent all missed time due to injuries. Defensive Coordinator Jim Johnson relied on Lewis to be their signal caller. Lewis did not disappoint. The secondary came to be known by Head Coach Andy Reid as "Michael Lewis and the no-names." Lewis continued to show he was a big hitter and a playmaker. Lewis' aggressive play combined with his intelligence helped him emerge as the leader of their secondary, despite his very soft-spoke nature. There's talk now that the tandem of Lewis with FS Brian Dawkins could be the best duo in franchise history. You won't go wrong taking Michael Lewis on your FF roster. Bust: Since acquiring former All-Pro Jeremiah Trotter in the offseason, many believe the writing is on the wall for Mark Simoneau. Simoneau (6'0" 234), a four year NFL vet drafted by Atlanta in the 3rd round of the 2000 draft, had a nice year for Philly in 2003. "Frenchy", as he is known by his fellow Eagle LB's, led the Eagles in 2003 with 78 tackles and 22 assists. What he lacks in size he makes up in speed. Simoneau, though, seemed to struggle a bit as the season wore on. The Eagles gave up too many rushing yards, and Simoneau was at least partly to blame for that. In the offseason, he added some extra weight and hoped it would not affect his speed or quickness. I think the opposite could occur and with Trotter breathing down his neck, the lost speed and quickness could mean the difference in Simoneau losing his starting job. And despite attempts to state otherwise, DC Jim Johnson's statements do not sound like ringing endorsements. He stated recently, "…Mark Simoneau is our middle linebacker…I want everyone to realize that I think Mark Simoneau is a heck of a football player, and I am not going to change my mind because we signed Jeremiah…Now, things might happen, but Mark Simoneau is our middle linebacker…" Then, a little later, Johnson said, "A lot of things can happen. It's a long season. A month from now, maybe things are different. Who knows?" And after Trotter, who has a big edge in the physical part of the game, dominated the action in live goal line drills, Johnson stated, "He looked like the Trotter that I knew, as far as attacking things, blowing things up." So while I wouldn't give up on Simoneau quite yet, it's a big risk to take him in FF. It could just be a matter of time before Trotter takes over for him. WASHINGTON REDSKINS By David Baker Sleeper: Mike Barrow (6'1" 245) is what you would call an NFL vet. The 34 year old was drafted way back in 1993 in the second round by the then Houston Oilers. He's also played for Carolina, the New York Giants and now the Skins. Through it all, he's only missed five games. He's registered 800 career tackles, 333 assists and 43 sacks. He's had a lot of very good seasons with every team he's played for. As a tackle producer, though, 2003 was his best season yet. He had 109 tackles, 39 assists and a pair of sacks. A monster year by any measure. In the offseason, the Giants elected to do a complete overhaul of their linebackers, much to the good fortune of the Redskins, who replaced Jeremiah Trotter on their roster with Barrow. Much of Barrow's tremendous success can be attributed to his incredible work ethic. After his first Skins minicamp, as most players dragged their way off the field and into the showers, Barrow instead went to the weight room where he started up on the treadmill. So while some may think of Barrow as an old man on the downside of his career, I would not assume so much quite yet. MLB this year for the Skins should present an excellent opportunity for Barrow to continue his tackle domination in the NFL. Bust: Phillip Daniels (6'5" 285) is the starting RDE for the Skins. He will be counted on to provide a pass rushing attack from their line. Since being drafted in the 4th round in 1996 by Seattle, Daniels has proven to be a solid NFL end. He played four seasons with the Seahawks followed by four more with the Bears. Twice, Daniels has had 9 sacks in a season. He has 44.5 sacks in his career and has been solid in run support. However, last year Daniels only had 2.5 sacks, his fewest since his rookie campaign. Recently, Daniels has been bothered by an abdominal strain. At first, he was listed as out indefinitely and then day-to-day. He is now back practicing. But at 31, having never been a pass rushing monster to begin with, playing on a new team and facing injury question marks, I would suggest passing on Phillip Daniels this year. CHICAGO BEARS By David Baker Deeeep Sleeper: Marcus Reese (6'1" 233), an undrafted LB out of UCLA, was picked up by the Chicago Bears last November after being released by the 49ers. This spring, Reese spent some time in NFL Europe playing for the Cologne Centurions. After his return from Europe, Reese proceeded to turn heads during Bears workouts. At UCLA, Reese played a similar defensive system as the Bears, and his talents fit nicely. Known for his athleticism, quickness and speed, Reese is now in a decent position to win the SLB position, now currently occupied by Bryan Knight and/or Joe Odom on the depth charts. Reese is so athletic that he lined up at safety in some practices, a position he played when he was younger. With a productive training camp, Reese could find himself going from NFL Europe to starting LB for the Chicago Bears. Sleeper: Lance Briggs- Briggs (6'1" 245), the Bears 3rd round draft pick in 2003 worked his way into the starting lineup last year, and despite only 13 starts Briggs finished with over 60 tackles and 13 assists. Briggs is extremely athletic with good speed and is a relentless heavy hitter. With Brian Urlacher recently going down with injury, Chicago has moved Briggs to the middle to see how he reacts. Briggs won the starting job at SLB and showed the speed and explosiveness to move to the weakside this year. Briggs is a sure tackler whose only area of weakness is in coverage. With his abilities and playing WLB in Lovie Smith's defensive scheme, Briggs should enjoy a big year and make his FF owners very happy. Bust: Michael Haynes, the Bears 1st round pick, and the 14th pick overall in the 2003 draft, was hoped to be the savior on the Bears defensive line. At this point with the 6'4, 281 DE, the jury is still out. Haynes likely replaces Philip Daniels in the starting lineup and he brings some solid speed and closing burst with him. But some observers are now wondering whether he has the strength, quickness and athletic ability to turn the corner on the pass rush. Some hint at his lack of instinctiveness. Fortunately for Haynes, there is not much competition behind him. To me, Haynes is too risky a pick at DE and I'd prefer to look elsewhere. DETROIT LIONS By David Baker Sleeper: Kalimba Edwards (6'5" 264) had everything going for home as he came to the Lions with the 35th overall in the 2nd round in 2002. Edwards is a lightning quick pure pass-rushing end that is blessed with incredible athleticism. Thus far in his short NFL career, though, Edwards has always seemed to be hampered by nagging injuries. His rookie season showed just enough promise to leave the Lion's fans salivating. In limited, situational playing time, Edwards ended up with about 30 tackles and 6.5 sacks. Last year, though, was a nightmare for Edwards. His injuries severely limited his playing time and he ended up with terrible numbers. In the offseason, he had sports hernia surgery. Now, Edwards is apparently feeling better than ever. His groin injury is a thing of the past. Look for 2004 to be Edwards breakout year and for him to get double digit sacks. Bust: SS Brian Walker (6'2" 205) was an undrafted player when he came into the league in 1997, but he has proven to be a solid vet. Known for good instincts and field awareness, Walker was part of a top ranked Dolphins defense in 2000 and 2001. In 2003, he had one of his most productive NFL seasons with 65 tackles and 20 assists. Although not exactly a FF star, Walker's numbers were respectable. This year, Detroit is moving him to the strong safety position, a situation where usually an IDP's numbers thrive. However, with Walker, I would not jump on that bandwagon too soon. Aside from struggling in man to man coverage, Walker is not a great tackler and is poor in run support. With Terrance Holt waiting in the wings to play somewhere at safety, Walker does not appear to be the ideal solution for the Lions at this point of his career. Once a solid football player, Walker is now 32 and should be avoided in IDP drafts. GREEN BAY By David Baker Sleeper: Na'il Diggs (6'4" 237), whose first name is Arabic and translates to "successful one", has seen his tackle numbers grow in each of his four years in the NFL, and he ended up with 76 tackles and 11 assists last year. All this despite an injury plagued season in 2003. A 4th round pick by Green Bay in 2000, Diggs has now made 50 consecutive starts over three seasons, the most by any Packer since John Anderson in the mid-80's. Diggs has moved from the strong side to the weak side this year, replacing Nate Wayne, in hopes of exploiting his closing speed and tackling ability. The positional switch alone is often a predictor of increased FF success. Expect Diggs to be given more opportunities to blitz this season and expect a career high in tackles. This should be a big year for Diggs. Bust: Nick Barnett. That's right, you read that correctly. I predict Nick Barnett as my bust on the Green Bay defense for FF. Barnett (6'2" 233), the much heralded first round pick for Green Bay in 2003 had a remarkable rookie campaign, by nearly all accounts. He ended the season with 86 tackles, 26 assists, 2 sacks and 3 INTs He plays with reckless abandon. He was named the 2003 Packers Defensive Player of the Year. He was the first rookie to start at Middle Linebacker since Mike Hunt in 1978. Barnett is so athletic, he actually played safety in college until moving to linebacker in his sophomore year. He finished 3rd in the AP voting for defensive rookie of the year. He lad all NFL rookies in tackles. His intelligence and sideline to sideline speed has helped him overcome his lack of size. So then why would I possibly label him a bust??? Although he's still young, I think play action fakes too often dupe Barnett and he sometimes loses sight of his assignments. But mainly, the reason I predict Barnett to be a bust is not so much that I think his numbers are disastrous, but because I think he will be overvalued by others. In my opinion, his numbers will actually decrease from last year. Why? In part because I believe that Diggs increased play over Wayne at WLB will take some tackles away from Barnett, and in part because it's just plain tough to meet the success he enjoyed as a rookie. Sophomore jinx? Maybe not as an NFL player, but in FF terms, I think IDP owners should be very wary about drafting him too highly. MINNESOTA VIKINGS By David Baker Sleeper: Chris Hovan was a highly regarded DT coming out as the 25th pick overall coming out in the 2001 NFL draft. At 6'2"/296, Hovan has a tremendous work ethic, incredible quickness and can really get to the QB for a DT. In 2001, Hovan had 6 sacks and followed that up with 5.5 in 2002. In 2002 Hovan also had 38 tackles and 14 assists as he truly came into his own. Because of his successes, in 2003 Hovan became the recipient of constant double teams. For Minnesota coaches, this was a welcome thing as the double teams allowed his Viking teammates more room to go after the ball. For IDP Hovan owners, though, 2003 was a bust. His tackle numbers plummeted and he registered only two sacks. Although Hovan tried to keep upbeat, the expectations from his previous seasons sometimes got to him. In 2004, however, look for Hovan to get his production back up. He lost about 10 pounds in the offseason and looks quicker than ever. Hovan worked out in the offseason with Junior Seau and claims to be in the best shape of his career. He has concentrated his offseason in working on his flexibility and spicing up his pass rushing techniques. Hovan has also been working with DL coach Brian Baker to camouflage his pre-snap position and expand his array of pass-rush moves. Hovan's counterpart, second year player Kevin Williams, is just coming into his own. Also a first round draft pick, Williams presence should greatly reduce the number of double teams Hovan faces. And rookie DE Kenechi Udeze makes the Viking defensive line that much more formidable. With so many players to stop now and with defenses having to worry so much about Kevin Williams, look for Chris Hovan to have a big FF year and approach 10 sacks. Not too shabby for your DT. Bust: Brian Russell is a talented young safety for the Vikings. He came out of San Diego St undrafted in 2001. Russell came on very strong last year for Minnesota, garnering 78 tackles, 17 assists and 9 INTs His 9 INTs led the league. It was the kind of season many IDP hounds look for on the waiver wire and indeed Russell was top 10 in many IDP leagues amongst fellow DBs Included in his 9 INTs was one streak at the start of the season where he had an INT over six straight games, tying a Viking record shared with the legendary Paul Krause. Despite all of this, the Vikings only signed Russell to a minimum contract for a two year vet. Apparently, the Vikings are not completely sold on Russell, whom they say is not as solid as need be at open-field tackling. One Viking staffer pointed out that Russell got a lot of INTs on tipped balls and overthrows. Minnesota is now said to be looking towards third year player Willie Offord to take Russell's job. And as we know in FF, it's all about opportunity. Russell is not about to give up on his spot yet, and he currently remains the Viking starter at FS. But the writing is on the wall. Picking Russell on your fantasy squad has bust written all over it, if only because he might be replaced as the starter. ATLANTA FALCONS By Bob Magaw Sleeper: Chris Draft (5'11" 232)... rang up 105 solo tackles last season from WLB. This was good for the tenth highest tackle total in the NFL, just after Keith Bullock's (TEN) breakout season, and ahead of stud interior LBs James Farrior (PIT), Jay Foreman (HOU) and London Fletcher (BUF). He slides over to MLB in a position switch with new WLB Keith Brooking (126 solos last season from the middle) after an offseason minicamp experiment was greenlighted by the Falcon's new HC Jim Mora, Jr. and DC Donatell. With opposing O-Lines having to concern themselves with the problematic speed and quickness of interior rushing presence Rod Coleman, the prized free agent acquisition from the Raiders, as well as a more attacking scheme up front (using a 4-3 base formation which better plays to the strengths of their edge rushing DE's), Draft could conceivably see an increase in production this season. Brooking's 126 solo tackles from that position in '03 tied for the league lead with Donnie Edwards (SD), and even surpassed tackle machines Ray Lewis (BAL) and Jamie Sharper (HOU), who finished with 125 and 124 solo tackles, respectively. If something remotely like this scenario transpires, he will significantly outperform his ADP value. There is a slight concern in some quarters that Jamie Duncan, the journeyman ex-Buc and, most recently, Ram MLB/roadkill, could contend for Draft's job. To Ram fans who have to dredge up the painful memories of the past two forgettable years seeing him stomped like an old drunk, in way over his head at the running of the bulls in Pamplona, Spain, that evokes only one possible incredulous response... BWAHAHAHAHAHAHA! For those on the doomed Duncan watch, on the fractional chance that he wins the job, there is a shred of consolation in the fact that the Falcon defense was statistically among the worst in the league by some measures, and Draft was a big part of that (backhanded compliment). There is a small but insistent body of skepticism on the part of some scouts and Falcon insiders that underscores the troubling tendency for too many of Draft's tackles being made downfield, and rumblings that he may not be MLB material... so read to the end of the brochure when considering him. Bust: DeAngelo Hall (5'10" 197)... the eighth selection overall in the '03 draft, the second defensive player and DB and top CB taken, some in leagues distinguishing between safeties and CBs will be tempted by his reputation as one of the fastest players in the draft. The former Virginia Tech teammate of Michael Vick was one of the only football players in the country that could best the rocket-fueled lefty in a foot race. He is an amazing athlete who helped lead his team to a state championship his senior year in high school by scoring 30 touchdowns and rushing for over 1,300 yards, also finishing sixth nationally in the 60-meter dash as a junior, and third in the state long jump as a senior. He has probable Darrell Green-like make up speed, though he doesn't possess the world class aerial skills and ability to break on the ball of FS prodigy Sean Taylor (WAS). With veteran Jason Webster imported from the 49ers by Mora and now slated to play opposite Hall, the rookie can expect to be tested and picked on until he plays well enough to discourage opposing offensive coordinators and QBs from sending the ball in his direction. But with rare exceptions, INTs tend to be hit and miss and CB totals in that statistic fluctuate wildly from season to season. The most consistent source of scoring for almost all IDP positions is tackles (some elite DEs are money in the bank by furnishing consistent sack totals... see Strahan, Rice, Taylor, Little and Grant). While Hall seems more than willing to mix it up in run support, he is not as accomplished or refined in that skill as Dunta Robinson (HOU), the tenth overall selection in the '03 draft and second CB taken off the board. Robinson is the smart play to lead all rookie CBs best positioned to start this season in the tackle column. The man who is having a bad hair life, Mel Kiper, called him one of the surest and most formidable open field tacklers for a CB in the past decade. CAROLINA PANTHERS By Bob Magaw Sleeper: Dan Morgan (6'2" 233)... To generalize Churchill's cryptic quotation on Russia, Morgan is a sleeper wrapped in a bust inside a gamble. When healthy, he is the complete package, with athleticism, strength, speed, suddenness, instincts, intensity and a bad disposition towards the offensive side of the ball... perhaps only his size is sub-optimal (one of the lighter MLBs in the game), but he compensates with explosiveness. The former first rounder (1.11 '01) has the natural talent, ability and skills to be one of the top 5-10 LBs and overall IDP players in the league. The problem is, in his first three seasons in the league he has made "Fragile" Freddie Taylor look like Jim "Iron Man" Marshall in comparison. During that span, he has never missed LESS than 5 games (in '01 and '03) and was sidelined for half the season in '02. His seriously checkered medical record includes a troubling history of recurring concussions. He did finish the season with a bang... chalking up 13 tackles (11 solos) in the NFC Championship game against the Eagles. He played like a man possessed in the Super Bowl and was seemingly everywhere on the field, as if there were 2-3 clones on the field with him. While "officially" credited with 18 tackles (also 11 solos), once the Panther coaching staff had a chance to break down film of the game post-loss, he registered closer to 25 combined tackles. That is a half to a third of a SEASON for most mere mortal LBs. If he can somehow manage to not skip a beat, and begin the year where he left off last season, stringing together a few more games like the MONSTER Super Bowl effort with greater consistency, he could be one of the SODs. The pedigree is there... Morgan represents a leading edge of the Miami University MLB tradition, a lineage which can be traced back to the rock solid Michael Barrow (WAS) and first ballot Hall of Famer Ray Lewis (BAL), extending to the latest discovery and first LB selected in the '03 draft, Jonathan Vilma (NYJ), who looks the part of MLB prodigy. If the Panther's MLB can stay in one piece (he alluded in the offseason to getting smarter and being more selective in when to go for the killshot), getting him after 20-30 LBs are off the board could be comparable value to those who took a chance on talented skill position players bearing the stigma of the injury-prone tag like Robert Smith and Fred Taylor... the year they had their breakthrough seasons. He was on pace for about 100 combined tackles in '03, but if he can stay on the field and get in a groove, he has the goods to easily surpass 100 SOLOS. Bust: Chris Gamble (6'1" 181) ... one of a handful of the top pure athletes in the entire draft, probably in the last decade. He is a winner who has succeeded wherever he has competed... helping lead his high school basketball team to a Florida state championship his junior year, reaching the same pinnacle in football his senior season, a feat he was to repeat in college just two years later. In the '02 season when Ohio State defeated Miami in the national championship game, he brought back memories of Champ Bailey and Charles Woodson (still the only primarily defensive player to win the Heisman trophy in NCAA history) as two way superstars whose elite CBs skills weren't compromised by pulling double duty as explosive WR weapons. Gamble demonstrated the stamina and endurance of an iron man triathlete on adrenaline boosters. He is the culmination of a line of fine pro CBs to emerge from the Buckeye program... including Shawn Springs, Antoine Winfield (could be the best pound-for-pound open field tackler in the NFL), Nate Clements and Ahmed Plummer. Despite being a world class athlete, his CB technique is as raw as one would expect given that his first experience with the position was goofing around with teammates prior to his sophomore season, when not engaged in WR drills. He is not guaranteed a starting spot opposite last seasons find Ricky Manning, but is talented enough to cast Artrell Hawkins aside and push him to the bench. One place his inexperience manifests is in open field tackling... next to his ragged, awkward arm tackles, he would make Garo Yepremian look like a textbook form tackler (the Texans top 10 pick Dunta Robinson is a man among boys from the '03 CB class in this department). INTs could also be sparse if he gets turned around more often than the guest of honor at a piñata party. Though his overall talent and athleticism could parlay him into a winner for dynasty leagues (some scouts think with experience and reps he will emerge as the best CB in the class), for redraft purposes... friends don't let friends gamble on GAMBLE. NEW ORLEANS SAINTS By Bob Magaw Sleeper: Courtney Watson (6'1" 246)... Watson is near the top of the food chain of those rookies in the '03 class in contention for a starting MLB job, including Jonathan Vilma (NYJ), Ted Lehman (DET) and Niko Koutouvides (SEA). He represents possibly the best confluence of talent joined to opportunity. The Saints were hoping that Vilma or D.J. Williams would drop to their first round pick (1.18 '04), but things worked out for the best when they got Top 10 value with Big 10 Defensive Player of the Year Will Smith of Ohio State, putting one of the fastest and best young D-Lines in the NFL over the top, and still managed to land a likely starter in the middle for the next half decade, when Watson fortuitously fell to them late in the second round. He was a three year starter at MLB for Notre Dame, who was originally recruited as a RB, but partly due to a lack of depth in the middle and the fact that his rock solid frame and impressive physique lent itself to the switch, he was quickly ported over to the important side of the ball. A tremendous athlete who began his prep career as a WR, was two time all-city in basketball, once long jumped 23' and was two time school champion at Notre Dame of one of the largest student run 5 on 5 basketball tournaments of its kind in the country. Perhaps his RB/WR background and basketball cross-training conferred on him a playmakers ball skills and open field running instincts... he finished his career with 7 INTs and 2 TDs. Watson almost turned pro after a junior year with the Fighting Irish that saw him garner first team All-American recognition. Improved in tackles every season he was the starting MLB. Similar to MLB/WLB Daryl Smith of Georgia Tech in that they are slightly undersized, All-American caliber MLBs with the athleticism, range, versatility and power to play all three LB positions (the Cowboy's drafted LSU's Bradie James in '03 for this handy trait), bring great character, leadership and off-the-field intangibles to the table, and didn't get the and recognition they deserved due to being in the same class with the more acclaimed Vilma and Williams (though they were frequently mentioned by scouts as Top 3 MLB/ILB prospects from their draft class). He capped off a stellar career with one of the best workouts among his peers... one of a handful of LBs (along with DJ, Vilma, Lehman, and the Vikings Dontarrius Thomas) to clock a RB/safety-like 4.5 40, and some of his 5 on 5 opponents must have had his tread marks on top of their heads with his gravity-defying 38" vertical. With the freakishly talented MLB/CB mutant Cie Grant unable to get on the field with chronic knee issues, expect Watson to emerge from the proverbial cast of thousands vying for the coveted Saints MLB gig (whoever wins out gets to enjoy the panoramic view behind an ascendant D-Line that might be the fastest in the league). Top 20 status and 90+ solos are within his capability. And just as importantly, within his reach with the rare opportunity to start at MLB as a rookie. He looks like '04's Nick Barnett... only he is flying more under the radar, as he was drafted a full round later. Barnett was the first LB selected in '03... Watson didn't make it into the Top 5, and if he is as good as advertised, will offer compelling value. Bust: Darren Howard (6'3" 275)... the second pick in round two of the 2000 draft, and bookend DE to up and coming Charles Grant. Last seasons stats were skewed from missing the first half of the season (broken wrist). After an auspicious debut in which he racked up 11 sacks his rookie year, he slipped to 6 and 8 from '01-'02. Not as dangerous rushing the passer or in run support as Grant, he was pacing to better his personal season solo total best by almost 50% last season. With the selection of multi-skilled Will Smith, he is now probably the third most talented DE on the roster. Howard won't get bumped from the starting lineup in '04, but he is in a contract year and could easily be supplanted by '05 for dynasty league purposes. Howard's opportunities could be curtailed this season if Smith emerges as the best sack artist on the team... his pedigree and ability suggest he could. He was somewhat overshadowed his junior year when Ohio State defeated Miami for the national championship with other high profile, front-line defensive talents like Mike Doss and Chris Gamble, and his stats were held in check a little by a conservative scheme the past few seasons... they were not representative of or commensurate with the havoc he could have wreaked if he had been fully unleashed. If turned loose by HC Haslett and DC Venturi, Smith has UFC-quality intensity and controlled fury, and among the best measurables and athleticism at his position in the draft, along with Kenechi Udeze (MIN). Has instincts that can't be taught, and is like a much smaller LB in his instant run/pass recognition, ability to stay on his feet and sift through traffic, sideline-to-sideline range and wrap up skills once he gets there. The Saints are reportedly experimenting with a jailbreak blitz personnel grouping called DELTA in which Grant and Howard shift inside to DT, and Smith and WLB Derrick Rodgers flank them on the edge. If so, NFC South O-Line opponents could be the victim of more stunts than a bootleg Bum Fights shoot TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS By Bob Magaw Sleeper: DE Dewayne White (6'2" 273) was described by HC John Gruden as the most improved player on the team in the offseason. One of the top defensive players in the nation his sophomore year at Louisville, he was looking like one of the best pure pass rush prospects in the past half decade (27 sacks in his first two seasons combined... he had 7 sacks in the first four games his junior year before a severe ankle sprain and intense O-Line attention directed his way limited him during the balance of the season) . He came out as an underclassman, the last pick in the second round of the '03 draft (2.32), though he was Tampa Bay's first pick in the draft, dealing their first rounder that year to the Raiders as part of the rare coach-for-picks trade of John Gruden. He was brought along slowly by DC Kiffin and crew last year, and with only 3 solo tackles and being shut out in the sack department, he is well below the typical IDP league's radar screen. Many Buc insiders expect him to seize the job from incumbent Greg Spires, if not immediately, than soon. Scouts have characterized his talent as DD sack and All-Pro caliber. BONUS Sleeper: SS Jermaine Phillips (6'1" 214) is a twenty five year old former Georgia fifth rounder who came into the league with little fanfare but may be peaking at the right time. Tampa Bay thought enough of his complete, all-around game that they cut ties with local institution John Lynch, whose play seemed to slip discernibly last season. He can run, hit and cover, like his deep patrol counterpart and similarly gifted athletically, FS Dwight Smith. He has been flashing so many multitalented skills in the offseason that he is forcing the Buc defensive coaching staff to get creative in finding more and more ways to exploit his talent and deploy his playmaking ability within the overall defensive scheme. With ex-Bronco Ian Gold playing SLB, a position he is unaccustomed to, and WLB Derrick Brooks appearing to bear the first marks of Father Time taking his toll, he could be among the team's leading tacklers this season. Bust: Greg Spires (see above)... his job is extremely vulnerable to being taken by the more talented DeWayne White. Gruden and company want to reap some dividends on their investment in their top pick in the '03 draft. Bonus Bust: Ian Gold could be miscast as a SLB. Listed at 6'0" and just over 220, he looks more like a skinny possession WR or a run supporting SS than a LB. Early returns are good, yet there are legitimate questions that have yet to be answered about how well he will bounce back from a torn ACL suffered last season, as well as how quickly and smoothly he will make the transition to his new, more brutal and physically punishing role lined up over the TE and opposing the strong side of the offensive formation. As a Bronco WLB, he was kept clean of blocks for the most part and freed up to chase from the backside and leverage his greatest attribute... his exceptional range and sideline-to-sideline speed. Gold not only has WR/S-type size, but also speed. In fact he is faster than many safeties and skill position players with bonafide pre-ACL injury 4.4 speed. He is sure to be run right at and smashmouth-tested early and often as one of the smaller SLBs in the NFL. If he tries to run around blocks, he may take himself out of too many plays. If he has to get on the job training and learn on the fly the bruising art and skill of stacking and shedding, getting off blocks and sifting through traffic, with his undersized frame, his knee could get seriously buggered up. They are said to be grooming him to supplant Brooks as soon as next season, but if he gets killed playing out of position this year, that could prove to be a moot point. Fans who know him from his outstanding 100 tackle sophomore season in '02, his first as Denver's starting WLB, could be disappointed with the anticipated drop in tackle production and playmaking opportunities from the more Neanderthal-like SLB slot. ARIZONA CARDINALS By David Baker Sleeper: Defensive Tackle is not a position in FF that many care much about. Typically, they do not produce big numbers in sacks or tackles. And like a cornerback, it seems that the more talented you are in NFL terms, the less valuable you are in FF terms. At DT, the best ones often get double-teamed. Indeed, defenses often desire their DT's to eat up space to allow the LB's to make plays. There are always exceptions to the rule, though. Warren Sapp has played mostly DT his entire career and has produced 9 or more sacks in 4 seasons. Another exception could very well be Darnell Dockett (6'4" 301) of Arizona, who was drafted in the 2004 draft in the third round. Dockett came out of Florida State where he broke a career school record for tackles made behind the line of scrimmage. Regarded by many as the best DE coming out of high school, Dockett went on to have a stellar career at FSU. Dockett is known for his tremendous explosion off the snap and has rare speed for his position. HC Dennis Green already has been trying to play Dockett some at DE and had named Dockett the starter at DT almost from the moment he came into camp. He can collapse the pocket as quick as anyone can. With DT Kenny King injured and will now likely miss the season, Dockett becomes that much more likely to start and get increased playing time. With John Randle, Dennis Green had a player that could set the tone with penetration ability and intensity. It looks like more of the same with Dockett. I still occasionally watch the Senior Bowl from last year, and Dockett's speed and ability to get into the backfield was something I have not seen in a long time. Bust: Dexter Jackson (6'0" 210) had a coming out year of sorts for the Cards last season. The 4th round choice in 1999 for Tampa Bay, Jackson came to the Cards last year and ended up with career highs in tackles (75) and INTs (6). His biggest claim to fame, though, had been winning the Super Bowl MVP while with the Tampa Bay Bucs in their championship year of 2002. Jackson won the award after intercepting two Rich Gannon passes in the first half. So after his nice year with the Cards last season, there were high expectations for him in 2004. Unfortunately, he's missed much of training camp this year with a disk problem in his back. Quentin Harris was named the starter over Jackson in June. With the signing of hard-hitting free agent Ifyeani Ohalete, the future does not look so bright for Jackson this year. SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS By David Baker Sleeper: Derek Smith (6'2" 245) has been a very productive and reliable NFL LB as soon as he was drafted by the Redskins in the 3rd round in 1997. He's started all but three games in his NFL career. Last year, Smith had a career high 87 tackles with 12 assists and a career high 3.5 sacks. Smith has led the 49ers in tackles the last three seasons. He is a smart, disciplined player who excels against the run. Smith was also good friends with former ASU teammate Pat Tillman, the Arizona DB who was killed in action in Afghanistan. Smith keeps a memorial card from Tillman's services with him at all times. He often thinks of Tillman as he runs out to the practice field. He's dedicating the season to him. Now heading into the 2004 season, Smith's numbers could grow even higher. With fellow LB Julian Peterson's contract still an issue, the team will be even more reliant on Smith. Whether at ILB or OLB, I like Smith to have a big year. Bust: Andre Carter (6'4" 265) is the much lauded 7th pick overall for the 49ers in the 2001 draft. In 2002, Carter had a very nice season, finishing with 12.5 sacks and 45 tackles. For the most part, though, the rest of his career has centered on unfulfilled expectations. Carter remains the teams' best pass rusher, but opposing tackles have been known to overpower him. He still has a dangerously quick first step, though, and he has a solid blend of speed, power and hand control. The 49ers say they are establishing new defensive schemes to offer Carter more chance to use his speed, but the 3-4 fronts with Carter playing some at LB sounds troubling. As much as the 49ers say they are hoping to give Carter better chances to get to the QB, it seems more to me like they are simply experimenting in various ways to make Carter earn his keep. I believe this experiment will be a failure. SEATTLE SEAHAWKS By Bob Magaw Sleeper: Ken Hamlin (6'2" 209)... the tenth pick in the second round of the 2003 draft conjured up memories of Kenny Easley, a Seahawk blast from the past who possessed a multitasking skill set, and was both superb in coverage as well as a monster in run support. Hamlin had some injury issues in the second half, but if first half production was doubled, the 86 solo tackles generated would have led the team (LBs included), been good for third among all NFL safeties (the Patriots Rodney Harrison had 94 and the Chiefs Greg Wesley racked up 90), fourth among all DBs (the Vikings CB Antoine Winfield had 96 with the Bills) and just missed a Top 25 finish among LINEBACKERS (and within a handful of the top rookie, Green Bay's stud MLB Nick Barnett). With OLB/SS conversion Michael Boulware slated to start sooner rather than later, with the expected and given growing pains, he could be the atypical FS heavily involved in and counted on for run support. Breaking down different forms of knowledge about IDP prospects can be useful. Info related to measurables (height and weight, 40 time, vertical jump, strength reps, etc.) and pedigree (how did they do in high school and college, what awards did they win, where were they drafted) can easily be referenced on the internet. Knowledge conferred by watching film of a prospect (in answer to questions such as: does a safety prospect have good run/pass read and recognition skills, instincts, take good angles to the ball, exhibit good range, ball skills, open field tackling technique and wrap up form?) falls into a different category. The first type concerning physical measurables and pedigree is important, but it should be complemented with and supported by the higher level kind, which frames and provides context for the former. Another example of different levels, where some types of info are nested within others of greater importance, is that of stats... and the ability to spot patterns and trends within the stats... OR, info such as FBG and Ourlads depth charts being different from that set of knowledge pertaining to defensive systems and schemes, coaching tendencies, implications of personnel movement in the offseason, etc. Placing the various streams of info in context and the different levels and strands of knowledge into perspective can help crack the code of scoring fluctuations from season to season, morph noise into signal, and make the IDP world more of an open book and forecast/prognostication-friendly. Hamlin was the #19 DB and #81 Overall IDP in FBG's expert rankings as of time of writing this survey. If he can stay healthy and avoid some of the off-the-field issues that could still cloud his future, your opponents may not know what hit them... like his signature decleater of Donte' Stallworth that saw heavy rotation on Sports Center last season. BOOYAH! Bust: Grant Wistrom (6'4" 272)... his main claim to fame was having one of the top blond 'fros in the NFL. His signing was considered a significant event in the offseason free agency landscape, as much for the weakening of Seattle's key divisional rival the Rams, as for the boost to the Seahawks... it could represent a rift in the vortex that is the NFC West balance of power. He is less than a superstar but more than a journeyman and "steady Eddie". Wistrom has averaged nearly 50 solo stops since 2000, and come away with a haul of 11, 9, 5 and 8 sacks within that span. If he plays with the same kind of hustle, nonstop motor and relentlessness he demonstrated in St. Louis, those kind of numbers are reproducible. Some key differences between the Rams and Seahawks... Wistrom won't have the benefit of a DE bookend the caliber of Leonard Little across from him to deflect attention and O-Line resources from. Seattle has one of the most athletic, talented and versatile young secondaries in the league... with the emphasis on young. With aforementioned rookie SS Boulware expected to crack the starting lineup soon if not by opening day, and Hamlin and future cover CB/shutdown artist Marcus Trufant coming off THEIR rookie seasons, flashes of brilliance could be interspersed with uneven play. The Seahawks were statistically awful and one of the worst teams in 2003 against the pass specifically. It is unclear if Wistrom's new secondary will be able to blanket opposing WRs as competently and buy him the kind of time he translated into sacks with the Rams? Hamlin and Trufant are a year older, and hopefully wiser, and a resurgent CB Ken Lucas and renegade Eagle Bobby Taylor could comprise key pieces to the puzzle of Seattle's pass defense. Wistrom is a driven, high character individual who will not lay down and get fat and sloppy now that he landed an unexpected jackpot $14 million signing bonus... he will no doubt work harder than ever to justify it. He is that kind of person and player. But for those who tend to see the glass as half full, and are hoping for an uptick from Wistrom's FBG consensus Top 20 DE ranking into the lofty top 10 stratosphere, could just as easily be disappointed by a decline into the more pedestrian Top 30. One other aspect in his favor (one man's bust is another's sleeper)... the Seahawks have an extremely balanced, dangerous and powerhouse offense with no such questions on that side of the ball. Bigger leads quickly attained, SHOULD = more opponent passing playing catch-up, COULD = more sack opps if things break right for the former Ram/Cornhusker. ST. LOUIS RAMS By Bob Magaw Sleeper: Pisa Tinoisamoa (6'1" 235)... a San Diego prep legend, the only high school football player in regional history to win All-CIF honors on offense AND defense (impressive when taking into account probable future Hall of Famers Marcus Allen and Junior Seau are among the native bred talent). Running with the wrong crowd in high school led to a conviction for taking part in a fight while on probation, landing him a detention stint, and causing Division I interest and scholarship offers to stop cold, understandably. Hawaii head coach (and former Falcons HC) June Jones took a chance on his prodigious athleticism, and by all accounts Tino embraced the opportunity to simultaneously flash his futuristic array of skills and demonstrate that he had turned his life around. Despite playing at a safety-like 210-215 in college, he impressed combine scouts by bulking up to 230 and still managing to clock by far the fastest 10 yard dash split and cone drill times among LB prospects... in fact, they were comparable to the top CB times in the '03 draft. More than one scout said he looked like the best player on the field at the Senior Bowl and the week of practices leading up to it. It would have been hard to have a more auspicious debut than his steady and at times spectacular production during his inaugural season. The final tally on his seasonal stat log showed 80 tackles (67 solos & 13 assists), 2 sacks, 3 INTs & 4 FFs (he is a devastating striker who brings the pain via well schooled form, disciplined wrap up technique and blunt force trauma). Only a handful of veteran LBs had as many INTs OR FFs. 5-0 was the only player in the NFL last year to show up so high in BOTH stat leader board columns. He couples rare speed, quickness, power, instincts and intensity and is the whole package. Already the Ram's top LB, he has the kind of work ethic to get better... a LOT better. When he is covered up and sees the play unfold, he has the game to be dominant. One of the most promising young playmaking LBs and ascendant talents in the NFL... a Samoan Derrick Brooks in his prime. Bonus Sleeper: Robert Thomas (6'1" 237)... has been dinged a lot
in his first two seasons, and was written off after struggling in '02 with his
rookie season adjustment to SLB. After being returned to his more familiar and
comfortable MLB role (he was Pac-10 Defensive Player of the Year there at UCLA),
the former first rounder (1.31 '02) actually led the Rams in tackles during
the first month of last season. One of the faster and more athletic MLBs in
the NFL, if he can avoid the training room he is a good bet to be a steal, and
greatly outperform his ADP. Bonus Bust: Tommy Polley is in serious danger of being relegated to the bench. There have been rumblings for a while that the coaching staff is dissatisfied with his toughness and consistency in run support. First he gave up his WLB position to Tino in the offseason, flipping to SLB. Now several other candidates, including '04 fourth round pick Brandon Chillar, are taking reps with the first team at SLB. Polley was probably going to be allowed to walk in free agency next season anyway (he has regressed badly since his promising rookie season). It looks like he could be on the outside looking in sooner than expected. DENVER BRONCOS By Bob Magaw Sleeper: D.J. Williams, OLB (6'0" 247)... probably an even better athlete than the Ram's Pisa Tinoisamoa (Hawaii 5-0 the only football player in San Diego County history to be awarded All-CIF honors on BOTH sides of the ball, for his work at RB and LB). D.J. was the consensus top recruit in the nation, capping a storied career at perennial prep powerhouse Concord De La Salle with a 40+ TD senior year, being selected USA Today's Defensive Player of the Year and signing a letter of intent with NFL feeder team the Miami Hurricanes. After a freshman season spent dabbling at fullback, he was switched full time to WLB, where he played ever since. His thunder was stolen somewhat by the less heralded MLB Jonathan Vilma, who led Miami in tackles the past few seasons. Still, many scouts considered Williams the superior prospect all the way through college. In the end, Vilma didn't drop as some predicted due to concerns that he didn't embody the physical prototype for a MLB/ILB at 230 (first LB off the board at 1.12 to the Jets), & D.J. went about where he was expected to (second LB selected at 1.17 to the Broncos; though Shanahan reportedly coveted the Buc's good looking WR Michael Clayton with the slot he acquired from the Bengals). This was a classic case where value intersected with need, as Denver allowed incumbent WLB Ian Gold to walk when they had a difference of opinion with his representation the Poston brothers over his post-knee injury value. In his first season as the starter in '02, Gold had nearly 90 solo tackles and 7 sacks... D.J. is about 25 lbs heavier, and probably his equal in the agility and speed departments (they have both been timed in the 4.4 range, and Williams is said to have a Kobe & Lebron-like 38" vertical). He should be immediately thrust into a prominent role on the defense. Expect some growing pains, as he doesn't possess Vilma's telepathic run/pass recognition and instincts. Lavar Arrington could be a comp player in terms of overall athleticism, and in that if Williams is turned loose in the scheme, he could be one of the top blitzing LBs in the game. Bust: John Lynch, SS (6'2" 220)... this former LYNCH-pin was the heart and soul of the great Tampa Bay defenses, along with Warren Sapp and Derrick Brooks, that were the scourge of the old NFC Central division, and now the NFC South. He is a warrior in the domain of real football, and his toughness and punishing, reckless tackling style with no regard for his body helped set the tempo for the Buc's fearsome brand of defense for the better part of a decade. In his prime, he compensated for a lack of raw speed with his football smarts & veteran wiliness. You rarely saw Lynch take a false step, or moving in any direction other than towards the ball carrier... until last season. He turns 33 on 9.25 of this year, and Tampa Bay released him in part because they wanted to clear the decks for the talented and promising Jermaine Phillips, but also because they thought his play slipped last year, and he was a player in decline with eroding skills. Despite his deserved reputation as a knock out artist, in terms of pure production his tackle numbers have been decidedly mixed... only 42 solos in '02 and 52 solos in an injury curtailed season last year. The most disturbing sign is that Lynch didn't stick his head in as much last season as in the past, probably related to the fact that a recurring neck stinger condition surfaced in '03 that caused many Buc insiders to surmise that he would call it a career. Buyer beware... his upside may not be that great if his subpar tackle numbers of the past few seasons are any indication, and prove to be a harbinger of disappointment. His downside? One neck-traumatizing tackle too many shelves him for the season, relegating him to full time Campbell's Chunky Soup hawking, and the analyst booth gig his charismatic, telegenic presence and soaring, off the charts football IQ would seem to command and make him destined for. KANSAS CITY CHIEFS By Bob Magaw Sleeper: Eric Hicks, DE (6'6" 280)... the definition of an up and down career. Made his way to the Chiefs the hard way, as an undrafted free agent from Maryland. He had his best season in 2000, when he was #4 in sacks among all NFL DEs with 14, and his next best year was '02 with a top 20 finish for a DE with 9 sacks. Cutting him some slack for a nondescript rookie season, his good years have been interspersed with lackluster efforts in '99, '01 and '03, in which he got 4, 4, and 5 sacks, respectively. Maybe he is like an Eric Moulds of DEs... he is notorious for following up stellar even-numbered years with mediocre odd-numbered ones. If so, the arrow is pointed up by the calendar. A more substantive reason to like Hicks in 2004 is that his best season occurred under the watch of former HC/DC (and current DC) Gunther Cunningham, who is back in a rare repeat performance after an interim stint as the Titan's LB coach. He was clearly the Chief's most important offseason defensive acquisition, as they will stick with a pat hand for the most part, personnel-wise, and are counting on internal improvement to get better. Former DC Greg Robinson's defensive conception was riddled with stunts and line games, and in the process of trying to confuse opponents ended up stupefying themselves (we have found the enemy, and it is us). Gun's system allows the D-Line to be football players, attack upfield, find the ball and blow the play up, and with his fiery demeanor and intensity lighting a fire under the defense's collective posteriors, a return to DD sacks for Hicks is a distinct possibility. Bust: Mike Maslowski, MLB (6'1" 243)... Maslowski missed a lot of games last season with a balky knee... he may not be a good bet to play 16 games. The point at which the wheels came off in Kansas City's season coincided closely with the juncture when Maslowski suffered his knee injury and was unable to get on the field. Rookie MLB Kawika Mitchell is a physical specimen with ridiculous measurables, but was as raw as an undercooked prime rib. The latest word from camp is that Maslowski's knee injury has been refractory to surgical intervention and rehab, and continues to be painful and swollen. His quickness, lateral movement and change of direction skills, never a strong suit (he outworked and out-studied his peers), have been reduced to a shell of his former capability. Maslowski is a big favorite of the fiercely loyal Dick Vermeil, but even if he cries a river, the tears won't obscure his vision or prevent him from stripping away any sentiment about hanging on to a player whose injuries make him a liability on the field. Vermeil has already alluded recently to the need to move in another direction if the knee doesn't improve rapidly, seemingly an unlikely proposition given that the pain has lingered through the entire offseason. As much as they will miss his veteran savvy, knowing which spot to get to won't make a difference if his battered joint precludes him from getting there. It is more likely that leading candidates Kawika Mitchell and dark horse Monty Beisel, who have the physical tools to fill the MLB responsibilities, can be coached up. If Maslowski can't go, the sooner they get reps the better, to ease the transition to being the starter at a critically important position. There is too much at stake this season for Vermeil and the Chiefs to allow the defense to let the offense down again (the last time we saw them, Peyton Manning dissected them for 400+ yards, 5 TDs in an AFC playoff game, and the Colts never punted). OAKLAND RAIDERS By David Baker Sleeper: Tyler Brayton (6'6" 280) was the Raiders first round draft choice in 2003, the 32nd pick overall. He was Colorado's unquestioned leader in college. Brayton seems to be blessed with an array of speed, strength, stamina and intelligence. He's one of those guys with a motor that won't quit. It's an old adage, but Brayton definitely leaves everything on the field. His rookie season was fine, but not up to speed with what the Raiders or Brayton expected. Still, he proved to be an anchor on his side of the line, while the rest of the line seemed to be revamped from game to game. He ended up with 48 tackles, 13 assists and 2.5 sacks. In his second season, Brayton will get the chance to play alongside of, and learn from, the likes of Warren Sapp and Ted Washington. It's hard to come up with a better person to learn how to get to a QB and understand blocking schemes that Warren Sapp. So while Brayton is still working on his moves, the Raiders will employ both a 3-4 and 4-3 defense. In the 4-3, look for Brayton to play end. In the 3-4, Brayton will either play end or move to LB to take advantage of his motor. The biggest issues Brayton had last year dealt with inexperience and the lack of support along the line. He now is a year more experienced and with Sapp and Washington, his support has increased tenfold. Also, Brayton played on the left side in college and switched sides when he came to Oakland. He now has a year in the same position. I see a big year for Brayton. Bust: When Napoleon Harris (6'3" 255) was drafted in the first round, 23rd overall, in the 2002 NFL draft by the Raiders, many believed he was the best LB coming out that year. In his rookie year, Harris had his shares of ups and downs as he learned the pro game. Last season, in his second year, Harris started to come around a little more and became a leader on the field and a solid LB. But he was also a bit inconsistent against the run. And his numbers were mediocre (74 tackles, 33 assists and 2 sacks), especially when compared to the LB's in the game Harris was being compared to in talent. But Harris remains a big talent nonetheless who many are expecting a big year this year. However, a knee injury during a training camp drill in preseason likely means Harris misses some time. Harris tore cartilage in his right knee and underwent arthroscopic surgery on August 10th. Although Harris says he plans to be back by opening day, don't count on it. He'll likely miss a game or two and it's questionable how effective he'll immediately be upon his return. So while some might have thought Harris would be a solid #2 LB in FF, I had him at a #3 prior to the injury and am wary now of drafting him as a starter. SAN DIEGO CHARGERS By Bob Magaw Sleeper: Terrence Kiel, SS (5'11" 207)... his rookie year didn't get off to a good start last offseason with an attempted carjacking in which he was shot multiple times. Fully recovered now, and with a year in the system, he could be the one jacking up WRs who venture across the middle this season. An extremely productive tackler at Texas A & M, the second rounder flashed enough ability last season to suggest he could have the goods to be a force in run support. This up 'n coming SS is somewhat overshadowed in a secondary that sports consecutive first rounders selected in the '02 and '03 drafts, the CB tandem of Quentin Jammer and fellow-Aggie Sammy (Candy Man) Davis. He went in the same round of the draft as other potentially elite NFL safeties Ken Hamlin (SEA), Mike Doss (IND) and Bryan Scott (ATL), and he has a chance to be similarly productive... if so, he will far surpass his ADP value. It doesn't hurt that San Diego could have one of the most anemic offenses in the league after LT II, and opponents could be playing with a substantial lead early and often in 2004, therefor grinding the clock with a disproportionate amount of runs in fourth quarter/s. Coupled with one of the worst front sevens in the league (with the exception of the ageless and venerable Donnie Edwards), this could be a recipe for a tackle engine. Bust: Igor Olshansky, DE (6'6" 309)... another second rounder (35th overall pick - '04) might be one of the strongest players in the league. The Ukrainian Polar Bear (the first known NFL player, at any position, to hale from the former Soviet republic) got in an epic fire against ice battle with Hawaii's Isaac Sopoaga when they took turns trying to break the combine strength record, both managing 40 throws of the 225 bar... Olshansky must have gotten primed for strength test showdowns with Herculean Samoans lifting alongside the frightening Junior "Tidal Wave" Siavii (KC) while at Oregon. Though an interior lineman whose forte was stopping the run in college, the second team All Pac-10 DT has surprising speed, agility and athleticism for a big man and racked up 6.5 sacks his junior year. HC Schottenheimer and DC Phillips are expected to move him outside as a 3-4 DE, but it would be asking a lot for a player to not only make the transition from college to pro D-Lineman (as an underclassman, no less), but also to undergo a position switch his rookie year. Marcellus Wiley could have deflected attention away from him as the opposing DE, but he was lost to the Cowboys in free agency. Longer-term and dynasty-wise, his intriguing measurables could project him to be a better Aaron Smith, a run stuffing 3-4 end capable of getting after the QB on a good day. Not in the same class as '04 first rounders Kenechi Udeze (MIN) and Will Smith (NO) as a pass rushing DE prospect. HOUSTON TEXANS By By Aaron Rudnicki Sleeper: CB Dunta Robinson Bust: LB Jason Babin INDIANAPOLIS COLTS By Bob Magaw Sleeper: David Thornton (6'2" 230)... Thornton burst on to the scene out of relative obscurity for the Colts in '03, going from an unheralded second day pick (4.09 '02) who was a North Carolina walk on with only one good collegiate season on his resume, before being a little known backup to stud WLB Mike Peterson with Indianapolis (before he was released and allowed to depart to the Jaguars in free agency)... to a 5th place finish in solo tackles among NFL LBs (117)... and overall among all IDPs. Donnie Edwards (SD), who tied for the NFL lead with MLB Keith Brooking (ATL), was the only WLB to finish with more solos than Thornton... Ray Lewis (BAL) and Jamie Sharper (HOU) were barely eclipsed by Edwards and Brooking with 125 and 124 solos, but they play MLB and ILB for their respective teams. For the second offseason. in a row the Colts suffered attrition from the LB ranks, letting SLB Marcus Washington jump ship to the Redskins. Surprisingly, rather than plug in some journeyman at SLB, HC Dungy and DC Ron Meeks chose to slide Thornton over and replace him at WLB... Cato June and Gilbert Gardner get first shot at the position. This is noteworthy because SLBs typically don't get as many tackle opportunities as the WLB (who in most schemes, are covered up and protected from blockers better than their strong side counterparts... the red headed, freckled stepchildren of LBs) and for the most part there seems to be a consensus opinion that Thornton's chances to be a playmaker will dry up, and his productivity will plummet. A key to IDP success is knowing the "rules" well enough to know when you can bend them, if not break them. Having a handle on systems and schemes (see the definitive articles by John Norton and Bob Henry) arms you with the principles you need to form judgments and come to conclusions about whether a player falls into the class of players that proves a given rule, or the set of players that is the exception to the rule. A lot of rankings flip flopped Thornton and June (moving the former down and the latter up) with the announcement of the new roles and starting assignments. Based on early returns, Thornton has looked like a beast and capable of blowing up ball carriers as effortlessly from the strong side as his ex-position... that rare SLB that can still live large and in charge (like Lavar Arrington and Pisa Tinoisamoa last season, and Anthony Simmons, Julian Peterson and Scott Fujita in '04). Conversely, the jury is still up in the air on Cato June, who could be replaced by Gilbert Gardner (comes from a program that well prepares prospects for the mental rigors of a prostyle defense; Purdue saw four LBs taken in the '03 draft) before or during the season, at any time. Thornton has a good head on his shoulders (former student body president and national honor student as a prep) and has taken a team first approach about the move. Rather than making excuses and setting himself up for failure, he is attending exclusively to those matters that can propel him to becoming the best SLB for the Colts possible. Situated next to the plodding and ponderous Rob Morris at MLB, and absent any outstanding run stuffing DEs in front of him, don't be surprised if Thornton once again cruises to the team lead in solo tackles. Bust: Idrees Bashir (6'2" 198)... a high second rounder (2.06 '01) from Memphis who has flashed enough potential in the past to tease with his athleticism but ultimately disappointed in the past two seasons, after an initially promising rookie effort. There has been a pronounced and alarming downward trend in his stats the first three seasons... 15 games and 61 solos in his rookie year, 14 games and 37 solos in a sophomore jinx year, all the way down to 9 games and 29 solos in '03. If he keeps it up, it will be hard to shirk the label of being injury prone. There is a good chance that his days are numbered as the Colts FS of the future... he may not even be the FS of the present much longer, due to the selection of Iowa's SS Bob Sanders in the second round (44th overall pick) of the most recent draft. Some pundits were scratching their heads over the pick at the time. The "Hitman", as he is cheerfully referred to by opposing WRs, seemed like a Mike Doss-clone... a short (but not small), devastating, lights out hitter... but Doss was already their SS. Dungy shed some light on the thought process behind the selection during a draft day interview, in which he laid out his plan for Sanders to be a FS, and to be a key piece to the puzzle of their run defense. He is just shy of 5'9", but outweighs stud top 20 SS Mike Minter (CAR) by over 10 lbs. The "Hitman" is a little stick of dynamite who led the Hawkeyes in FFs last season, and if he weren't involved in a protracted training camp holdout while he awaits a contract agreement, he has the measurables (4.3 40 and 41"+ vertical), talent, explosiveness, instincts, field awareness and innate run support skills to have already seized the job from Bashir. In fact, Sander's charisma, leadership and indomitable will X-factor are capable of being a catalyst to changing the tempo of games, and will prove instrumental to elevating the intensity and toughness level of the entire Colts defense. JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS By Bob Magaw Sleeper: Daryl Smith (6'2" 234)... there are quite a few things to like about Smith. He has been one of the top LBs in the nation for Georgia Tech the past four years, and transitioned to college quickly and easily, with a freshman All-American season. His segue way to the NFL has looked just as effortless, and his pro-caliber LB chops have been on display during a spectacular training camp and preseason. It is rare for a rookie to storm on to the scene in such an advanced and developed state. Smith may be that unusual prospect with the natural talent and an array of skills already fully formed and complete. Mel Kiper included him in his Top 25 list leading up to the draft, just behind the gifted MLB prodigy Jonathan Vilma (NYJ). In most IDP drafts he was selected after not only Vilma and Miami teammate D.J. Williams (the first two LBs off the board in the actual draft), who were more highly touted by most scouts, but also Ted Lehman (DET), Karlos Dansby (ARI) and Dontarrius Thomas (MIN), who in the wake of the draft appeared to have better opportunities and a clearer path to starting (they all subsequently earned the nod in preseason.). It wasn't clear where Smith would play... Mike Peterson and Akin Ayodele seemed firmly ensconced at the MLB and WLB positions, respectively (and a crowded scene at SLB, with veterans Favors and Hendricks competing). A season-ending knee injury to good looking rookie LB/DE-tweener Jorge Cordova and the release of DE Tony Brackens curbed the Jaguars enthusiasm for their DE stable, prompting the reinsertion of former Purdue DE Ayodele back to his old collegiate position. This got Smith a foot in the door at WLB more quickly than anticipated... expect him to break it down. Del Rio must have been impressed by Smith's capabilities and potential in the scheme, which was good for a #2 finish against the run in '03. The Jaguars HC was of course a fine LB himself, and should be a good judge of talent, having played with All-Pro Duane Bickett when they were at USC, as well as coaching Ray Lewis for the Ravens. Ayodele got 96 solos and 20 assists from the WLB spot in '03 (he didn't play WLB the whole year, but was moved there in-season), and he was not even as highly touted a prospect (3.24 '02) as Smith (2.07 '04). Sometimes in the IDP world it makes sense to go with the pedigree... the cream will rise to the top. Bust: Ayodele (see above)... he could turn out to be a quality DE, but there is an element of uncertainty associated with the metamorphosis of the former Boilermaker DE from SLB - WLB - back to DE. The change of status from borderline Top 20 LB to question mark at DE has to be disappointing for dynasty owners. If he is going to have his hand on the ground full-time, it could take a season or two polishing his inside moves, expanding his repertoire of counter moves, and becoming adept at stringing moves together. His positional change really muddles attempts to project his tackle productivity based on last seasons numbers. It is such a fundamental alteration to his prospects that his projections have to be completely reconsidered... from scratch. One ray of hope is that he will enjoy playing alongside Marcus Stroud and John Henderson, arguably the most athletic, stoutest and formidable young DT tandem in the league. While on the subject of Jacksonville DEs, beware of Hugh Douglas (6'2" 281), too. He may have been a product of the Eagle's complex, intricate and relentless blitz schemes. Douglas just turned 33, is coming off a shockingly bad 4 sack season and the volume on the scout chatter has been raised a few decibels, increasingly suggesting that he looks done. TENNESSEE TITANS By Bob Magaw Sleeper: Tank Williams (6'3" 223)... Clevan "Tank" Williams is a tremendous athlete who was a QB/DB, basketball player and competed in track as a highly regarded Lone Star state prep. He received some All-American consideration his senior year at Stanford, when he had 68 tackles, 5 INTs and 2 sacks. Tank was the first safety taken (2.13 '02) after first rounders Roy Williams (DAL) and Ed Reed (BAL), and before highly regarded Michael Lewis (PHI). The Titans were intrigued by his legit 4.4 40, thunder dunk-friendly 38"+ vertical and ability to get "medieval" on ball carriers in run support... he is as big as a LB and as fast as a CB. Williams has played all 32 games in his first two seasons. Hunting sleepers and running them to ground sometimes entails identifying material changes to an IDP prospect from one season to the next. If you think that being able to raise his right arm over his head this year (his shoulder was so damaged during most of last season that his arm was basically useless) could positively impact on his tackle stats, than you have identified such a material change. Snippets of info like that, easily uncovered through the interconnected information push that is the FBG news blogger, daily updates and message boards, when used in concert, can be the difference between winning and losing. Looking back on his injury-blighted season after surgery on the labrum and rotator cuff, he observed... ''It just hinders you, being like that... You just can't play as physical and aggressively as you want. I wasn't like my rookie year at all. I'm hoping to get back to that- make some things happen.'' A good illustration of the kind of things Williams can make happen when his shoulder is right was one of his games against the Colts his rookie year, in which he had 2 FFs (one coughed up by Peyton Manning was returned for a TD by teammate Keith Bullock), 1 FR, 1 sack and 4 tackles. In terms of measurables, Tank is a physical specimen that has it all... not many SSs make Roy Williams look like a potbellied slacker. Like Roy, his production has been compromised by the fact that he is simultaneously the teams best run support AND cover safety, and though he is LISTED at SS, he is often saddled with coverage responsibilities and deployed more like a FS. Could be an elite blitzer from the safety position if turned loose, like Leroy Butler or Brian Dawkins. Bust: Kevin Carter (6'5" 290)... at one time Carter was one of the highest rated DEs in the league. He has demonstrated remarkable durability and resiliency, never missing a game in a career that has spanned nine seasons (his first six with the Rams and the latest three with the Titans). The former coveted sixth overall pick (1.06 '95) from Florida has had a somewhat checkered, up and down career, with the highs admittedly being very high. He has had DD sacks five of his nine seasons, most recently in '02 (10). Coming off of an 11 sack season in 2000 in which he wanted a break the bank contract (this followed on the heels of probably his two best seasons... 12 sacks and 50 solos in '98 and 17 sacks and 31 solos in '99), St. Louis thought he had an excessive asking price and inflated estimate of his value. Rather than trying to re-sign him, they elected to get a return on their investment by dealing him to Tennessee for a first round pick (1.29 '01, subsequently used on Ryan Pickett... the Rams are seemingly underwater on that exchange). Never a big tackle-monger, he has failed to crack 30 tackles as a Titan (though he has gotten to 29 with the consistency of a metronome all three seasons), and barely got there with 31 his last two seasons as a Ram. After a disappointing 2 sacks his initial season with Tennessee in '01 and his rebound DD sack year the following season, he came up small with a half dozen sacks in the '03 campaign, his lowest sack total (aside from the forgettable first year with the Titans) since he was a rookie. Most importantly to his immediate IDP prospects, with DT Robaire Smith (HOU) moving on in free agency, Carter is being asked to slide inside. In the past three seasons only two DTs have surpassed the DD sack threshold (the ex-Raider Rod Coleman with 11 in '02 and since retired Seahawk/Viking John Randle with 11 in '01)... nobody did it last season. With elite DE Jevon (Freak 2.0) Kearse also being allowed to walk, rookie DEs Travis LaBoy and Antwan Odom may not deflect much attention away from Carter. He turns 31 on 9.21, and is hurtling towards the age when players can crash and burn faster than a circa '70's Pinto crash test dummy. BUFFALO BILLS By Aaron Rudnicki Sleeper: DE Chris Kelsay Bust: FS Izell Reese MIAMI DOLPHINS By Aaron Rudnicki Sleeper: SS Sammy Knight Bust: WLB Junior Seau NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS By Aaron Rudnicki Sleeper: CB Ty Law Bust: LB Roosevelt Colvin NEW YORK JETS By Aaron Rudnicki Sleeper: SS Reggie Tongue *NOTE: This is, of course, contingent on Reggie Tongue holding off Erik Coleman for the starting job. Bust: Shaun Ellis BALTIMORE RAVENS By Aaron Rudnicki Sleeper: LB Edgerton Hartwell Bust: LB Terrell Suggs CLEVELAND BROWNS By Aaron Rudnicki Sleeper: LB Warrick Holdman Bust: SS Robert Griffith CINCINNATI BENGALS By Aaron Rudnicki Sleeper: LB Nate Webster Bust: DE Justin Smith PITTSBURGH STEELERS By Aaron Rudnicki Sleeper: DB Troy Polamalu Bust: LB Joey Porter |
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