Culcasi's Thoughts

As we all know, there are two words that summarize Dan Morgan's pro career to this point: Injury prone. In three years he's missed a total of 18 games, playing many others while injured. So why is he even on the radar when discussing possible top 20 linebackers? He has so much potential that it hurts.

A weakside linebacker during his freshman through junior seasons at the University of Miami, he made the move to the middle as a senior and was voted the nations best defender, winning the Butkus, Bednarik and Nagurski awards. He was the first Hurricane to record 100+ tackles for four straight seasons (500+ for his career) and he set a school record with 42 consecutive starts. Let me say that again...42 consecutive starts. That's amazing when you think about it, considering the troubles that he's had staying healthy in the NFL. A great pro prospect, he was selected 11th overall in 2001 and placed on the weakside in Carolina, moving to the middle after his rookie season.

Dan Morgan's attributes make him a prototypical weakside linebacker. Great speed, sideline to sideline playmaking ability, athleticism and incredible instincts. Those instincts are what set him apart and draw him to the middle of the defense. He doesn't have ideal size for a middle linebacker (6'2 233), making him better on the move than at the point of attack. He's a high-energy player who's very aggressive, and that aggressiveness often leads to trouble.

Positives

• Dan Morgan benefits from playing behind the leagues top defensive line.



• He has it all. Great speed, strength, intensity and playmaking ability. Elite instincts. He can drop into coverage and rush the QB (although he's not used to rush the passer).



• What have you done for me lately? During his last two games (NFC Championship and Super Bowl), Morgan picked up a total of 31 tackles...keeping our memory fresh as to why we're always so high on his prospect.
  

Negatives

• Handle with care. He's a Ming vase in a paper bag, as likely to end up on the IR as he is the top 10.



• Post-concussion symptoms. We've seen over the last few years how serious concussions have become, making Morgan a high risk that needs to be watched closely.



• Aside form last year playoffs, Morgan hasn't produced elite numbers. In 30 games over three years, he's averaged 4.6 solo tackles per game, less than five solos in 17 of those.

Final Thoughts

Because of their similar potential and history of injuries, the comparisons to Fred Taylor are inevitable. In 1999, Taylor played in only 10 games with 159 carries. When the postseason rolled around he shined, picking up 245 yards on 37 carries with a couple of touchdowns. Taylor used that success to roll into 2000, setting a career high in carries while posting 1399 rushing yards and 14 touchdowns. Dan Morgan played in only 11 games a year ago but stepped it up in the playoffs. With 45 total tackles in four playoff games (18 in the Super Bowl), Morgan will also look to use that success as a building block into 2004.

Can he remain healthy for an entire season? He hasn't shown the ability to in three seasons, making it very unlikely. Just last year he had an early season hamstring that hampered him before suffering a couple of concussions. The concussions (along with everything else) leave us very concerned. Just for kicks, assuming that he can stay on the field, a spot in the top 20 is reserved...with potential to go much higher.

Quotes from the IDP Spotlight Message Thread:

To view the entire thread, click here: LB Mike Barrow, Washington Redskins

BassNBrew:
"Don't waste a roster spot on Morgan. Even with the best DL pass rush in the league, this clown couldn't even record a single sack last year. He has a grand total of 3 sacks in three years. His sack this year will be in week nine v. Oakland and he'll defense his single pass in week 15 at Atlanta covering Dunn when Vick misfires. Figure on about 6 tackles a games when he actually plays. Of course that will be infrequently as he has managed campaigns of 11, 8, and 11 games played in the last three seasons. Heck, this guy makes fragile Fred look like an iron man. He may be the only LB in the history of the league injured while tackling a QB from behind with no other contact. Add Armstead to the mix and Fields returning and this underachiever will disappear. The Panthers will keep LBs in the secondary to help the weak DBs, plus with the best DL in the league, blitzes will seldom be called. Do yourself a huge favor and just cross Dan Mor-agony off your cheatsheet.

There's no reason to draft a LB that won't be blitzing. He has no upside and is a huge injury risk. You might get the occasion game with a high tackle number, but you'll never get the performance that will carry you to victory in a given week. Add two good LBs to the mix that weren't there last year and I'm avoiding this disaster in the making. Do yourself a favor and stick with Rucker and Minter from the Carolina squad."

Weiner Dog:
"Nobody on this planet can argue with the injury history of Dan Morgan. However, don't be so quick to scratch this guy off your cheatsheet.

Morgan is arguably one of the most talented LB's in the game. Yup...the Super Bowl showed everybody this. I'm a true believe that Morgan's intensity is stronger than his frame. The guy flat-out hits people so hard that he hurts himself. Morgan only weighs 230 lbs+, but he plays like a 250 lbs guy. The Panthers did not make Morgan the #11 overall pick in the '01 draft b/c they like his long hair.

I completely agree with the post above...Morgan will never net you any sacks. However, the Panthers have zero need to rush him on passing downs with Peppers, Rucker, and Mark Fields of yesteryear chasing the QB.

If...and this is a big IF...Morgan stays healthy, he'll finish in the Top-15 for LB's. Take it to the bank."

Jayhawk:
"To me, Morgan is a good LB to have if you have decent depth. He may very well not play every game, but when he does, he performs fairly well.

I firmly believe, that on a per game average, Morgan is a top 20 LB. Maybe better."

Bob Magaw:
"MLB/ILBs don't typically get lots of sacks... with exceptions... Sharper got 4 last season, Urlacher got 5 the year before. So if the average is something closer to 1-2 sacks, getting 100-120 solo tackles like the top MLBs/LBs are capable of goes a long ways to overcome a couple sacks. Its true that all things being equal, if I think Foreman is capable of getting about as many tackles as Sharper (he actually had more in '02), Sharper's superior ability to make big plays like sacks & FFs gives him the edge. But there aren't many MLB/ILBs like Sharper with the ability to be a tackle machine coupled with the speed, range & athleticism (not to mention a scheme that frees them up & turns them loose) to make big plays too, & the few that are out there will likely be gone anyway before you would be considering Morgan. What differentiates Morgan is his potential to make 100-120+ solo tackles if he can play something close to a full slate of games.

There is a point in the draft where it makes sense to take a guy like Morgan who has a checkered medical history but a lot of upside, over a safe pick medically with limited upside (where that point is will be different for everybody according to their risk tolerance/aversion profile). Morgan is a big injury risk, with a scary history of concussions among other things. He might miss a month of action, but the upside could be considerable if he can put his injury problems behind him."

grady:
"As stated, Morgan would be a stud if he could actually stay on the field. But given his injury history, I would only take him as my LB4 because of his upside."

Projections

IDP Scoring System
1 pt per Solo Tackle
0.5 pt per Assisted Tackle
3 pts per Sack
4 pts per Interception
1 pt per Pass Defensed
2 pts per Forced Fumble
2 pts per Fumble Recovery