Rudnicki's Thoughts

Ed Reed's nickname is The Ballhawk, and it's hard to imagine a more appropriate moniker for him. In just his 2nd year in the NFL, Reed has already tied the team record for INTs in a season with 7, and has tied the NFL record for blocked punt returns for a TD with 3. He was a leader of the Miami Hurricanes defense that won the national championship a couple years ago, and has brought that same determination and playmaking ability to the Ravens. While with Miami, the turnovers that he was directly responsible for ended up producing 106 points over his 4 seasons, which ends up being about a FG/game and is a pretty clear sign of his importance to the team. He also set a bunch of school records while starting for 4 years at Miami: Reed finished as the leading career tackler among DBs, broke Bennie Blades' career INT record with 21, and set the career record for pass deflections with 54 (including 23 in his junior season). Reed started his freshman and senior seasons at FS and played SS during his sophomore and junior seasons, and is an ideal fit for the Ravens defensive scheme which regularly asks their safeties to switch positions in order to confuse the offense. Reed was a consensus 1st team All American during both his junior and senior seasons, recording an amazing 5 TDs on 17 INTs over those 2 seasons.

Despite his unbelievable success in college, Reed lasted until the later portion of the first round on draft day due to some concerns about his lack of ideal size and ability to play SS in the NFL. The Ravens considered trading down and trying to get him later, but eventually decided the offers they were getting weren't worth the risk of missing out on him. Reed became an instant impact player in Baltimore, starting all 16 games and finishing 4th in tackles while picking off 5 passes and blocking 2 punts. In his 2nd season, he started every game and although his tackle numbers dropped slightly, he continued to demonstrate his ability to make big plays with 7 INTs (returned 1 for a TD), and 3 blocked punts (returning 2 for TDs). Reed was named to the Pro Bowl and the 2nd team AP All Pro after just his 2nd year in the league. Reed isn't necessarily the fastest or the biggest safety in the league, but he has great instincts and backs them up with a great work ethic and a tremendous desire to learn about the game. Reed spends a lot of time studying film, which helps him pick out tendencies in his opponents that he can take advantage of on game day. As a hitter, he's not in the same class as a Roy Williams or Rodney Harrison, but he can lay the lumber when needed and he has plenty of speed (4.5 40 at the combine) to match up with any RB or TE and even most WRs. He's a hybrid who can play equally well lining up in the box at SS or locking up in man-on-man coverage at FS, and is an ideal fit for the Ravens style of defense.

Positives

• One of the most talented safeties in the league, with a great combination of speed, instincts, and playmaking ability. His playmaking is what gives him the potential for huge scoring weeks. He even returned some punts for the Ravens last year, which should give you an idea of how good he is with the ball in his hands.



• Ed Reed has a lot of the qualities essential for success in the NFL: He has a tireless work ethic, is a student of the game, and has great character and leadership abilities. Even though Miami U. isn't known for churning out many Boy Scouts, Reed isn't a guy you need to worry about getting suspended or any into other kind of trouble off the field.



• Surrounding talent: Chris McAllister is one of the best cover CBs in the league, so having him in the same secondary frees up Reed a little more. Also, the LBs in Baltimore generate a lot of pressure on opposing QBs, which helps increase Reed's number of INT opportunities.



• Youth: He'll turn 26 when the season starts, so he still has a long and productive career ahead of him. As good as he is already, it is very likely that he'll continue to improve.

Negatives

• Despite being very talented and making lots of big plays, his tackle numbers have been underwhelming during his first 2 seasons and that has kept him from rising to elite fantasy DB status. There were almost 50 other DBs who ended up with more solo tackles than him in 2003, and he'll need to improve on those numbers before he can rise to the Harrison/Archuleta level.



• Ray Lewis is so dominant that opposing RBs rarely make it into the secondary, which leads to fewer tackle opportunities for Reed. Even though he is listed as the SS, Reed tends to have more coverage than run stopping responsibilities.



• He's not the typical in-the-box SS that can hit and tackle like a LB, but his punt blocking success suggests that the Ravens might be wise to use him as a blitzer more frequently (only 2 sacks over past 2 seasons).

Final Thoughts

Reed is a player that should produce better than he has, but his unlimited potential makes him very appealing to fantasy owners. It is hard to believe that a SS who has recorded 12 INTs and a handful of TDs in his first 2 seasons still hasn't cracked the top-10 in DB scoring for most scoring systems. I think the system and the fact that he plays behind Ray Lewis is partly to blame, but also the fact that he's not exactly a Roy Williams type of player that looks to knock people out with every hit. His game is built more around speed and takeaways, so he'll always have the potential for huge scoring weeks that can carry a team. With that, however, also comes the potential for some low scoring weeks, as he had 2 or fewer solo tackles in 7 different games last year. He is a bit of a boom or bust player throughout the season, but given his youth and undeniable talent, this is a guy that most fantasy owners should be willing to take a chance on.

Magaw's Thoughts

Ed Reed has already made a forceful and persuasive case that he is one of the top safeties in the NFL, and one of the best playmakers regardless of position, only two years into his pro career with the Ravens (he'll turn 26 on 9-11). In that span he has averaged almost 80 tackles and 6 INTs. Reed finds the ball. He is such a ball magnet, sometimes it seems like the ball finds him... he was fourth among all NFL safeties, and led the AFC, with 7 INTs last season, helping him earn his first Pro Bowl nod. The '03 season was not an anomaly, either. After Tony Parrish's ridiculous 16 INTs combined in the prior two seasons, Reed is in the mix for second most in the NFL during that same time frame... Greg Wesley (KC), Darren Sharper (GB), Earl Little (CLE) and the raven's INT-maven all have about a dozen. Patrick Surtain (MIA) is the only CORNERBACK that had as many INTs in that span (the Buc's Brian Kelly had 8 in '02, but went on IR early in '03 with torn pec). Has some similarities with his more high profile teammate, MLB Ray Lewis. They both attended Miami, have been the heart and soul of their defense and team in both college and the pros, and were downgraded by some scouts in their respective drafts (both taken towards the latter part of the first round) for not possessing optimal physical measurables, but overcame supposed size-constraint limitations with tremendous instincts and football smarts, and off-the-charts toughness, charisma, leadership and intangibles. It goes without saying that Lewis plays a central role in Baltimore's defense (#3 in total defense ((#4 against the pass and #6 against the run)) and #1 in sacks), but the integral part Reed holds in the overall scheme should not be overlooked.

He took Miami by storm his freshman season, and demonstrated the same constellation of attributes that would be seen as a recurring theme throughout his young career, with his complete game and playmaking skills already fully formed. In 1998, Reed led the secondary with a career high 90 tackles (61 solos), 2 sacks, 2 INTs, 4 FFs, a blocked kick, and garnered some national recognition by being named to some Freshman All-American teams. His '99 season didn't see much in the way of a sophomore slump or drop-off in production. The statline for the year looked like 74 tackles (48 solos), 4 sacks, 2 INTs, 1 FF and 2 blocked kicks. In the 2000 season, Reed shifted into high gear, logging 80 tackles (56 solos), 8 INTs, two of which were returned for TDs, and was a consensus first team All-American. Reed showed exemplary toughness, resiliency and resolve, not to mention a high pain threshold, during a brilliant senior campaign. During the '01 season, despite playing with separate bruised rib and shoulder separation injuries that would have put players with less desire and intensity on the shelf, he was team captain and spearheaded Miami's National Championship run. While his tackles took a dip for obvious reasons, he led the team and was second in school history with 9 INTs (Bennie Blades, 10 - '86) for a school record 209 yards and three TDs... the nine picks led the nation on a per-game basis. Miami led the nation with 45 turnovers and 27 INTs that year. In the Championship Game victory over Nebraska, he led the team with 9 tackles (6 solos). He capped off a storied career with another consensus first team All-American award, and left with the school records for career tackles and solos for DBs, as well as INTs (21 surpassed Blades 19).

Positives

• One of the best ballhawks in the league, he is an INT magnet. Reed combines voracious film study with outstanding on field instincts and intuition, the source of his uncanny anticipation, and consistent, demonstrable talent for putting himself in position to make a play on the ball. Because it about as easy to breach Ray Lewis and company's run defense as a Level Four Biohazard Containment Facility, opposing offenses are forced to pass more than they would like to at times, adding to Reed's INT opps.



• Has a lot of advanced attributes for his age... he started four years for Miami, is already considered an elite NFL SS after just two seasons in the league. His short time in the pros have been an extension, continuation and fulfillment of the maturity, charisma and leadership he demonstrated in college.



• Versatile, having played both FS and SS in his career, and is equally adept in run support or pass coverage. A rugged, hard-nosed presence in the run game, coupled with ball skills and athleticism in pass coverage, he becomes a dangerous playmaker who knows what to do with the ball in the open field once he gets his hands on it

Negatives

• Slightly undersized (5'11" 205) for the SS position, but remarkably durable during his stellar collegiate career, and so far with Baltimore in the pros... though he did have the shoulder separation his senior year at Miami, but was able to not only start every game, but consistently maintain a high level of play throughout the season.



• Doesn't have the speed, range or ability to close on the ball of a Sean Taylor (who does?), or the devastating striking power of Roy Williams (who does?), but he is an unusual amalgam of their respective strengths and talents. Reed more than compensates for any physical limitations or shortcomings with his ability to get wired into Offensive Coordinator's gameplan and QBs head, where he is always two steps ahead of everybody else in the anticipation and getting a jump departments.



• In real football, having one of the best MLBs in NFL history in front of you is a good thing, but it isn't conducive to racking up large tackle numbers and padding your stats in IDP leagues. Many times in his first two seasons Reed was right behind Lewis, but the tackle machine just beat him to making the play.

Final Thoughts

The Ravens return their defense from last year virtually intact. Star OLB Peter Boulware is struggling with a balky knee, and it is uncertain at present if he will bounce back in time for the start of the '04 season. They did draft a player just last year who is a mirror image with almost parallel skill set in Terrell Suggs (who became the second Raven, after Boulware in '97, to be named Defensive Rookie of the Year... along the way he broke the team rookie record with a 12 sack season). OLB isn't the only position generating pressure on the QB in Baltimore's 3-4 base defense. DE's Anthony Weaver and Marques Douglas began to flash more pass rushing ability as the season progressed, and this year's draft brought standout Pac-10 D-Lineman Dwan Edwards, who has the natural size, strength and athleticism to swing between DE and DT. He was their first pick in the draft, though in the mid-second round, as they traded away the rights to their '04 first round selection last year to acquire a second first round pick, with which they took Kyle Boller after Suggs. If elite CB Chris McAlister doesn't create a contract-related hassle (who along with Gary Baxter comprise one of the top CB tandems in the NFL, whose ability to play bump and run without a safety net frees Reed to roam unimpeded wherever his instincts guide him to make plays), the pieces will be in place for a repeat performance.

If a picture is worth a thousand words, maybe a well selected anecdote should be worth ten thousand, if it manages to capture the spirit of the subject under discussion. Like a caricaturist's ability to ruthlessly strip away the inessential aspects of a face and bring instant recognition of a distinctive countenance or signature expression with a few economic lines, an actual event in Reed's career might be a medium or form more up to the task of adequately conveying a sense of his football smarts, work ethic, burning desire to improve, and competitive spirit to gain any edge he can leverage to the team's advantage. As related in an account on the Raven's site, he was scoping out a slight hitch in the Cardinal long snapper's delivery during pre-game warm-ups before game 5 with Arizona last season... in which the snapper flexed his elbow immediately prior to hiking the ball to the punter, which was all the "tell" Reed needed to be effectively tipped off to the snap cadence a split second early. After hipping one of his special teams coaches to his hunch, his Sherlock Holmes-like powers of observation were rewarded handsomely when he used his head start to disrupt the timing of and bust the punt blocking formation with a quick surge up the unprotected middle, enabling him to block the punt and return it for a TD in the second quarter, of what was subsequently a 26-18 win. So there is more to the 3 blocked kicks (with 2 TD returns) in his first two seasons than his world class hand-eye coordination. Reed relentlessly picks the brains of DC Mike Nolan and secondary coach Donnie Henderson about assignments, tendencies, how things fit together into the overall game plan (he kept Henderson's cheat sheets uncovering every scheduled team's tendencies, adding to them his own observations and insights from during the year to compile a book on opponents; his secondary coach has since moved on to become the NYJ DC). "I'm always thinking about football because that's my job, and it's a lot like a chess match... Just like a financial advisor always thinks about money, or the president thinks about the well-being of the country. I'm always thinking about football because it's in my heart." Don't underestimate Reed's preparation. The value of preparedness is a thought has been echoed through the years in various ways, but converging on similar successes in different endeavors. The great Vince Lombardi said... "The harder we work, the luckier we get." Pasteur... "Chance favors the prepared mind." Legendary Brooklyn Dodger GM and talent scout Branch Rickey ventured... "Luck is the residue of design."

Quotes from the IDP Spotlight Message Thread:

To view the entire thread, click here: DB Ed Reed, Baltimore Ravens

grady:
"Ed Reed is a playmaker, period. As there are no major personnel upheavals in Baltimore, I would expect him to improve slightly over last season as would be natural for a third year player."

Outside Contain:
"Ed Reed is the kind of safety that could incinerate your whole WR corps gene pool. I love how this guy plays and he'll get his plays facing teams like the Browns, Steelers and Bengals twice a year. I expect him to improve over last year's numbers."

Biabreakable:
"I like Ed Reed a lot. He certainly lived up to my expectations of him last year and I agree he could be even better in 2004. I would like to see him increase his tackle #s but they are kind of hard to come by with Ray Ray gobbling them all up. He has great instincts though and a nose for the ball along with the jets to take it to the house. Hard to predict those things but he has the skill to make it happen which could win games for you on that play alone in close contests. All around a solid player and definitely a top 10 DB as well as being very young and likely improving his #s with added experience."

cracKer:
"Reed's consistency scares me a bit. He only posted five games last year with five or more solo tackles, nine with three or less. 28 solo tackles during the final eight games? I am a fan of his and I love his playmaking ability, but he NEEDS to improve his consistency in order to reach some of the lofty goals that I've seen."

Projections

IDP Scoring System
1 pt per Solo Tackle
0.5 pt per Assisted Tackle
3 pts per Sack
4 pts per Interception
1 pt per Pass Defensed
2 pts per Forced Fumble
2 pts per Fumble Recovery