Magaw's Thoughts

In just one season, Peppers ADP value has taken a dip. Leading into last season, coming off a rookie year in which he had 12 sacks in 12 games (before failing a banned supplement test abruptly terminated his historic run) and was pacing to break Jevon Kearse's NFL rookie record of 15 sacks, Peppers was a hot commodity. He seemed to struggle for the first half of the season, when he was clearly in the cross hairs of opposing offensive coordinators game plans and blocking schemes, subject to relentless double teams, chip blocks and extra attention. He found his stride again in the second half, in part because teammate Rucker's monster season began to command attention in his own right, and deflected some of the pressure away from Peppers... finishing strong with 5 sacks in his last 6 games. Given that he embodies the physical prototype for the DE position, possesses off-the-charts measurables and is one of the top athletes in the NFL on EITHER side of the ball, has the natural talent, skills and ability to be the top DE in the game, and is coming off a down year, he offers tremendous upside coupled with compelling value to IDP players.

Positives

• Prototype - a blueprint to engineer the prototypical NFL DE would look very much like Peppers. Listed at 6'6" 283, he has the wingspan of an NBA center... handy for batting down passes and making it easier to swat QBs to the ground. He reportedly increased his strength by 30-40% (he was a sixth man for the Tar Heels and didn't participate in year round football-style strength training his first few years at North Carolina) during his first offseason in '03, while maintaining his blistering speed for a D-Lineman. He is not only cat quick, but has the agility & balance of a cat... on one play last season he got airborne, was lowbridged by an O-Lineman, flipped in the air, did a somersault... and landed on his feet like nothing happened.



• Pedigree - the #2 overall pick in the '02 draft, only David Carr was selected before him that year. Won both the Lombardi and Chuck Bednarik Awards as the nation's best lineman and defender while a junior at North Carolina, his last year as a collegiate. His 15 sacks during the 2000 season led the nation, and fell one short of Lawrence Taylor's school record for sacks in a season. He was also a high school All-American in football and all state in basketball. He has not only succeeded but risen to the pinnacle of every level he has competed at. It is difficult to imagine having a more impressive resume, or a more hopeful and optimistic arc and trajectory for his projected career path, based on his stellar accomplishments so far.



• Production - was pacing to break the NFL rookie record for sacks in a season in '01, with 12 sacks in 12 games, before his historic run was prematurely ended. After a slow start last year, he got to the QB in 5 of his last 6 games. He is still getting better, in the sense that he is maturing physically, making up for lost time during his basketball stint with an expanding knowledge of technique, has a rapidly evolving repertoire of rushing moves, and projects to become much more adept at stringing moves together.
  

Negatives

• He is still raw and somewhat unschooled (could flatten out around the edge more and expose less body, etc.). Has a tendency to attack from the edge too much, like a RB that bounces every play to the outside... needs to be less of a one-trick pony. He is actually in the process of developing more and better inside counters, but he needs more work, game experience and refinement. The Patriots exploited this tendency in the Super Bowl and gashed the Panther defense for some long runs.



• Needs to play the run better... related to the above point. But whether he is pursuing the QB from the edge or less commonly knifing in from the inside, he sometimes pays so much attention to the QB that he loses sight of his responsibility within the overall scheme, in those instances leaving the team defense compromised and vulnerable. He also gets wired to the blocker too often. His run/pass read and recognition should improve over time... he seems sharp, focused, professional and with a work ethic commensurate with his surreal, jaw-dropping athleticism.



• The late independent scout Joel Buschbaum felt he lacked the passion, instincts, tenacity, nastiness and competitiveness of fellow Tar Heel alumni Lawrence Taylor. Also, he is merely a jolt cola or a sketchy vitamin booster pack away from another suspension. By all accounts, though, the earlier indiscretion was an error of ignorance (taking a banned supplement unwittingly on the advice of an informal "nutritionist", without having it checked), as opposed to being an attempt to circumvent the rules. People who know him and teammates who play with him say he is a high character-type who was led astray, but is basically a straight shooter.

Final Thoughts

Peppers came out as a junior, so he should really be coming off his rookie season. Taking a cursory look at the recent history of DEs who subsequently turned out to be special, it's really not unusual (:inserttomjonessong:) to take two-to-three seasons to really get rolling, before they have their breakthrough year. Prodigies like Simeon Rice (13 sacks as a rookie, than followed a 5 sack sophomore jinx year with a double-barreled outburst of DD sack seasons... 10 & 17) and the Freak (except for a 4 games season cut short by a broken foot, Kearse has DD sacks every other season in his 5 year career... 15, 12, 10, 2 & 10) are rare. More representative of the norm would be the first three seasons totals of future sack artists extraordinaire Michael Strahan (1, 5 & 8), Jason Taylor (5, 9 & 3) and Leonard Little (1, 0 & 5), all who got off to comparatively slower starts to their respective careers than Peppers. He is still raw due to being a power forward/sixth man for the North Carolina basketball team, missing a lot of spring football... he is expected to become much more technically proficient, and as he matures physically he should get a lot stronger. He is a once-in-a-decade/generation-type athlete and physical specimen, the T-Gon of defense. Once he puts it all together, he has what it takes to be the benchmark, with the tools to be a perennial DD sack artist and All-Pro, and the top DE in the game. Could be a budding Reggie White or Bruce Smith.

Quotes from the IDP Spotlight Message Thread:

To view the entire thread, click here: DL Julius Peppers, Carolina Panthers

Outside Contain:
"I am not holding my breath over character issues. I am not holding my breath over whether this kid wants to be a football player or not. With that Panther DL he's not going to meet a triple block every snap. What's not to like about Julius Peppers? The kid is still safely the age where one more year adds production rather than reduces it."

grady:
"Probably one of the most physically gifted linemen in the game. He is a multi dimensional player who will play all 4 downs. We'll call last year a down year for Peppers, but lets just hope it was the sophomore jitters."

Imprisoned Saints Fan:
"I was highly disappointed in Peppers last year, but keep in mind DE is one of the positions where a lot of players are affected by the sophomore slump."

Projections

IDP Scoring System
1 pt per Solo Tackle
0.5 pt per Assisted Tackle
3 pts per Sack
4 pts per Interception
1 pt per Pass Defensed
2 pts per Forced Fumble
2 pts per Fumble Recovery