Rudnicki - IDP Strong/Weak Plays

This will be a weekly feature at FBG this season for IDP owners out there who are having some trouble deciding who to start on Sundays. I'll pick out several players normally ranked outside of the top-30 at each IDP grouping, who I think have favorable matchups this week and might be worth starting. Additionally, I'll highlight some "top-30 players" who could have trouble living up to expectations this week that you may want to consider benching. I'll also provide my reasoning so you can think about it and decide for yourselves. As a bonus, I'll also review my picks from the week before so you can see how accurate they have been. I'll be relying heavily on the IDP stats we are providing at FBG this year, especially the fantasy points/game and % of points allowed to each position grouping.

Review of Last Week's Selections:

STRONG STARTS

DL Bert Berry, Arizona (vs NY Giants): 7 solo, 4 sacks = 19pts
DL Albert Haynesworth, Tennessee (vs Chicago): 3 solo, 2 asst = 4pts
DL Duane Clemons, Cincinnati (vs Washington): 2 solo, 1 asst, 1 sack, 1 PD = 6.5pts
DL Jason Ferguson, NY Jets (vs Baltimore): 2 solo, 1 asst = 2.5pts
LB Ted Johnson, New England (vs Buffalo): 4 solo = 4pts
LB Pisa Tinoisamoa, St Louis (vs Seattle): 3 solo, 1 asst, 1 PD = 4.5pts
LB Antonio Pierce, Washington (vs Cincinnati): 7 solo, 1 asst = 7.5pts
LB EJ Henderson, Minnesota (@ Green Bay): 4 solo, 4 asst = 6pts
DB Corey Chavous, Minnesota (@ Green Bay): 4 solo, 3 asst, 1 FF = 7.5pts
DB Sheldon Brown, Philadelphia (@ Dallas): 7 solo, 1 asst, 1 PD = 8.5pts
DB Tebucky Jones, New Orleans (vs Kansas City): 7 solo, 2 asst = 8pts
DB Chris Gamble, Carolina (@ San Francisco): 4 solo, 1 asst, 1 INT, 1 PD = 9.5pts

Hit Rate: 8/12 (75%)

WEAK STARTS

DL Kevin Williams, Minnesota (@ Green Bay): 1 solo, 2 asst = 2pts
DL Greg Ellis, Dallas (vs Philadelphia): 2 solo, 4 asst, .5 sack, 1 PD = 6.5pts
DL Marcus Stroud, Jacksonville (vs Detroit): 1 solo, 1 asst, 1 PD = 2.5pts
DL Jevon Kearse, Philadelphia (@ Dallas): 1 solo, 1 PD = 2pts
LB Mike Peterson, Jacksonville (vs Detroit): 4 solo, 1 asst, 1 sack = 7.5pts
LB Brian Simmons, Cincinnati (@ Washington): 2 solo, 1 INT, 1 PD = 7pts
LB Dan Morgan, Carolina (@ San Francisco): 3 solo = 3pts
LB Derek Smith, San Francisco (vs Carolina): 3 solo = 3pts
DB Ronde Barber, Tampa Bay (@ Atlanta): 3 solo, 1 INT, 2 PD = 9pts
DB Roy Williams, Dallas (vs Philadelphia): 2 solo, 2 PD = 4pts
DB Greg Wesley, Kansas City (@ New Orleans): 5 solo, 1 asst, 1 INT, 1 PD = 10.5pts
DB Donovin Darius, Jacksonville (vs Detroit): 4 solo, 2 asst = 5pts

Hit Rate: 7/12 (58%)

A brief note about the hit rates: To provide an objective standard to evaluate these selections, 5 fantasy points will be used as the cutoff for DL and 6 fantasy points will be used as the cutoff for LB and DBs. Thus, when a player is listed as a strong start, that means I think he has a good chance to top 5 or 6 points based on his matchup, and when I say a player is a weak start, I think he has a good chance to put up fewer than 5 or 6 points. I'll continue to track my success throughout the season to try and provide you with the information you need to make your starting decisions.

Week 11 Selections

STRONG STARTS

DL Rod Coleman, Atlanta (@ NY Giants)
Coleman missed a month because of injury but came back last week with a vengeance, frequently collapsing the pocket and sacking Brian Griese twice. It's probably no coincidence either that Kerney broke a 5-game sackless streak in the same game when Coleman returned to the lineup. The Giants offensive line has been paying out like a busted slot machine for opposing defensive linemen lately, so Coleman and Kerney should both be great plays. The Giants have given up 4 sacks to a single player in each of their last 2 games (Alex Brown and Bert Berry). Part of the reason for the high sack totals is Warner's tendency to hold onto the ball too long, so the change to Eli Manning might slow things down a bit. But, he's still a rookie and he'll still have that same patchwork offensive line blocking for him. The Giants are giving up an average of 30.6pts/game and 37% of all IDP points to opposing DL, both of which rank #1 in the league by a considerable margin.

DL Greg Spires, Tampa Bay (vs San Francisco)
As bad as the Giants are, the 49ers aren't much better and rank #2 in most of the IDP stats allowed categories, including pts/game (27.8) and % of total IDP pts (34%) allowed to DL. Spires has been playing great for the Bucs this year, and has been a quality start in 3 of his past 4 games. Over that stretch, he has racked up 20 solos, 3 asst, 2.5 sacks, and 1 FF. Simeon Rice gets most of the attention from opposing offenses, and the return of Booger McFarland should help take even more focus away from Spires. Another thing to consider is that when teams decide to run at undersized SLB Ian Gold and away from Derrick Brooks, they will be running right towards Spires. That might explain his high tackle numbers as he is currently in the top-5 among DL in terms of solo tackles.

DL Robert Mathis, Indianapolis (@ Chicago)
David Carr might still be having nightmares about Robert Mathis and the surprising Colts defense last week. Mathis finished the game with 3 solos, 3 sacks, and 3 FF on defense, while also adding 2 solo tackles on special teams. Just like Wayne is thriving playing opposite Harrison on offense, Mathis is thriving playing opposite Dwight Freeney on defense, and he currently leads the Colts in sacks with 8. The Colts rotate their defensive linemen quite a bit so he doesn't rack up very many tackles, but he's clearly capable of getting to the QB. Although the Bears offensive line has done a great job of run blocking, they struggle in pass protection and are giving up nearly 4 sacks/game (rank #2 in the league). The matchup with John Tait doesn't look great, but if the Colts get out to an early lead, Krenzel will be forced to air it out and then the Colts defensive linemen should be able to just tee off on him for the entire second half. FYI: Mathis missed practice on Wednesday with an injured groin, but is expected to play on Sunday.

DL Kabeer Gbaja-Biamila, Green Bay (@ Houston)
KGB was considered a stud by most going into this season but he struggled badly for the first couple months. Now, he seems to be on a bit of a roll though, with 6 solos, 3 sacks, and a PD in his last 2 games, including a 10pt fantasy performance against the Vikings last week. The Packers should be able to score against the Texans weak pass defense, which will force Carr and the Texans to open up a bit. Houston currently ranks #6 in fantasy points allowed to DL (22.8/game) and are giving up nearly 3 sacks/game as well. KGB has always been a rather streaky player, so he's just as likely to put up 1pt as he is to put up 6, but this could be the start of a nice run for him.

LB Pina Tinoisamoa, St. Louis (@ Buffalo)
Well, Tino didn't come through for me last week against Seattle but I guess they were a tougher matchup than I realized. The Bills, however, are fantasy gold for LBs and have been all year. Even in a blowout loss to New England last week when the Bills offense could barely stay on the field, they still found a way to allow 32 fantasy points to New England's LBs, which was good for 52% of the total IDP points. For the season, the Bills rank #1 in fantasy points allowed to LBs (27.4/game) and % of total IDP points to LBs (38%). They also rank #1 in total tackles allowed (25.1) and sacks by LBs (1.3/game). None of the other Rams LBs have really been consistent enough to warrant selection here, so Tino is an obvious choice to take advantage of this great matchup.

LB Jamie Winborn, San Francisco (vs Tampa Bay)
Winborn has been putting up good numbers lately with 25 solos and 2.5 sacks in his last 4 games, all of which have seen him break the 6pt quality start threshold. This week he faces a Bucs offense that has found new life behind the running of Michael Pittman and QB play of Brian Griese. Tampa Bay currently ranks #7 in fantasy points allowed to LBs (22.7/game) and #3 in sacks (.9/game). Injuries to Julian Peterson and Andre Carter have left Winborn as the 49ers best pass rusher so look for him to get plenty of blitz opportunities on Sunday. Last week, Falcons LBs combined for 32.5pts and 4 sacks against the Bucs, so this should be a good week for all 3 49ers LBs.

LB Orlando Ruff, New Orleans (vs Denver)
Courtney Watson began the year as the starter at MLB for the Saints but he has been replaced by the veteran Ruff, who has put together 3 quality fantasy starts in a row. In the past 3 games, he has 21 solos, 8 assists, an INT, and a PD. He's faced two quality running teams in San Diego and Kansas City in the past 2 weeks and now he gets the Broncos, who rank #6 in fantasy points allowed to LBs (22.7/game) and #3 in percent of points to LBs (34%). Reuben Droughns is pretty much a north south runner, so Ruff shouldn't have much trouble putting up good tackle numbers.

LB Na'il Diggs, Green Bay (@ Houston)
Diggs hasn't been lighting up the stat sheet much lately (just 15 solos in past 4 games), but the return of Grady Jackson from a knee injury should help free him up a bit more. On the season, the Texans rank #8 in fantasy points allowed to LBs (22.4/game) and are also in the top-10 in total tackles by opposing LBs (21.4/game). Even more impressive is what happened last week, when the Colts LBs combined for 37 fantasy points, which ranked #2 in the league. Domanick Davis appears to be getting healthy again, which is good news for Diggs and MLB Nick Barnett.

DB Glenn Earl, Houston (vs Green Bay)
Earl is a rookie out of Notre Dame that dropped in the draft because of an injury, but the Texans really liked him and grabbed him in the 4th round. He's now recovered and has recently beaten out Eric Brown for the starting SS job in Houston. He's got 10 solo tackles over the past 2 weeks and has a great matchup with the Packers this week. Green Bay ranks #1 in fantasy points allowed to DBs (33.7/game), #2 in total tackles by DBs (26.9/game), and are allowing 48% (#31) of total IDP points to opposing DBs. Favre is not afraid to throw deep and the running game has been picking up steam of late too, so Earl should be pretty busy. Last week, both Vikings safeties had quality starts so I'd feel comfortable starting Earl in reasonably deep leagues.

DB Eugene Wilson, New England (@ Kansas City)
The Pats secondary is a mash unit with both starting CBs injured, and Wilson has been playing a bigger role as a result. He only managed 1 solo tackle against one of the worst offenses in the league last week (also had an INT and a PD for a 6pt day) and now faces the leagues best offense in the Chiefs. In the 4 games prior to the Bills game, he had 25 solo tackles and 5 assists so he's clearly not afraid of contact despite being a former CB in college. Kansas City ranks #2 in fantasy points allowed to DBs (33.4/game), #1 in total tackles by DBs (27/game), and top-10 in percent of IDP points to DBs (43%). Last week, playing without Priest Holmes, Saints DBs combined for 40 fantasy points and 26 solo tackles. Rodney Harrison should have his hands full with Tony Gonzalez, which should place more responsibility on Wilson for containing the run and making sure Kennison and Morton don't go deep.

DB Erik Coleman, NY Jets (@ Cleveland)
This is my second rookie safety on the list. Coleman has provided great insurance for the Jets this season, as Reggie Tongue hasn't played as well as anticipated and there have also been some injury issues they've had to deal with. Coleman hasn't done quite as well as his cross-town peer Gibril Wilson of the Giants, but he won the job in the preseason and is now the 4th leading tackler on the team and also has 2 INTs (but none since week 2). He's been a quality start in 3 of the past 4 weeks and the Browns should be a good matchup for him this week. Cleveland currently ranks #4 in fantasy points allowed to DBs (32.3/game), #3 in percentage allowed (46%), and top-10 in INTs by opposing DBs. Last week against the Steelers, their DBs finished with 2 INTs (both by SS Troy Polamalu), 35 fantasy points, and 48% of the total IDP points.

DB Deshea Townsend, Pittsburgh (@ Cincinnati)
Townsend's tackle numbers have been down a bit the past few weeks with just 6 solos in his last 3 games, but he's having a great season in terms of playmaking (4 sacks, 3 INTs, 1 FF, 1 FR). The Bengals turn the ball over pretty frequently and he'll likely see plenty of time matched up against Chad Johnson, so if the pass rushers up front do their job he should have a chance to make some plays. Cincinnati ranks #9 in the league in terms of fantasy points allowed to DBs (31.2/game), #1 in INTs by DBs (1.2/game), and #5 in percent of pts (45%) allowed to DBs.

WEAK STARTS

DL Alex Brown, Chicago (vs Indianapolis)
Normally in this spot each week, I look for stud players on a bit of a cold streak who also face tough matchups. Alex Brown doesn't quite fit the first part of that description with 9 solos, 6 asst, 4.5 sacks, 3 FF, and 1 PD in his last 2 games. But, the Colts offense has been absolutely brutal against opposing DL all year so you have to expect him to cool off a bit. Indy is giving up only 12.8pts/game (rank #32) and a 2nd-worst 22% of all IDP points to opposing DL. Last week, the Texans DL only managed 6.5pts combined. The Bears have a lot more talent on their D-line than the Texans, and the Colts may be missing both of their starting guards due to injuries, but the Colts have given up only 6 sacks in 9 games so Brown (and Ogunleye) owners should be prepared for a low score this week.

DL Cornelius Griffin, Washington (@ Philadelphia)
Griffin has clearly been the Redskins best defensive lineman all year long, and he's been putting up surprisingly good tackle numbers for a DT. Like Brown, he's not exactly on a cold streak considering he has 20 solos and 4 sacks in his last 4 games. But, he's been bothered by a nagging hip injury and the matchup with the Eagles is almost as tough as facing the Colts. Philadelphia is allowing an average of 13.9pts/game (#31) and just 8.4 solo tackles/game (#30) to opposing DL. On MNF, Cowboys DL only combined for 6 solo tackles and 13.5pts so this might be a decent week to sit Griffin if you have a good alternative.

DL Marques Douglas, Baltimore (vs Dallas)
Douglas ranks #15 in YTD point totals among DL and he's coming off his best game of the season (6 solos, 2 asst, 1.5 sacks) against Quincy Carter and the Jets. That was very impressive but it is unrealistic to expect similar production against the Cowboys who are almost the complete opposite of the Jets. The Jets are one of the best running teams in the league this year, but have struggled with their passing game. The Cowboys are one of the worst running teams but are throwing the ball pretty well. The Cowboys offensive line has only allowed 6 sacks to opposing DL all year, so Douglas will have his work cut out for him. Dallas ranks #29 in pts allowed (14.5) on the season, but they only gave up 8.5pts to the entire Eagles DL last week.

DL Jason Taylor, Miami (@ Seattle)
Taylor is not having a year up to his standards, but the collapse of the Dolphins and the loss of Ogunleye are part of the reason for his struggles. He currently ranks #26 in YTD fantasy points among DL. He did have one of his better games before the bye (5 solos, 1 sack, 1 PD), but Seattle has been pretty stingy lately. The Seahawks rank #26 in fantasy points allowed (15.7/game), and tied for #29 in % of points (22%) allowed to DL. Last week, a pretty good Rams defensive line was held to just 14.5 fantasy points. Taylor will be primarily be matched up with Walter Jones, who could be the best offensive tackle in all of football, and should have trouble making an impact as a result.

LB Antonio Pierce, Washington (@ Philadelphia)
Pierce has been a very pleasant surprise for the Redskins this year and Barrow may have trouble getting back the MLB job that was originally supposed to be his. Pierce has quality starts in his last 3 games and 5 of his last 6, but the Eagles rank #29 in fantasy points allowed to LBs (18.1/game). The return of Westbrook didn't seem to help anything either as the Cowboys LBs only managed 12.5pts total on MNF while MLB Dat Nguyen finished with just 3 solos and 1 asst. Barrow has been rumored to be coming back soon, but it's still unclear how he would fit in and whether his return would take away from Pierce's playing time.

LB Takeo Spikes, Buffalo (vs St. Louis)
With London Fletcher getting most of the tackles in the Bills defense, Spikes is more of a guy that relies on big plays to boost his fantasy value. But, the big plays haven't been coming often enough and as a result he has failed to crack the 6pt quality start threshold in 2 of the past 3 weeks. The Rams currently rank #28 in fantasy points allowed to LBs (18.2/game). They softened up a bit last week though, allowing 15 solo tackles and 20.5pts to the Seahawks LBs. It probably comes down to the playcalling of Martz - if he runs Faulk and Jackson, Spikes should post good numbers; if he stays pass happy, then Spikes will have some trouble getting many tackle opportunities.

LB Dan Morgan, Carolina (vs Arizona) (or his replacement)
Morgan started out the season on fire, but he's slipping lately thanks to his latest injury problem (concussion). He's played in just 2 of the past 3 games, and in each of those he only finished with 3 solos. He's listed as doubtful and isn't expected to play, so most owners will probably bench him anyway. But, I'm expecting a poor performance from whoever replaces him as well. The Cards rank #23 in fantasy points allowed to LBs (19.3/game) and last week only gave up 10.5 fantasy points to the Giants LBs. The Cards running game and offense in general hasn't really gotten on track yet this year, so they may not be able to take advantage of the Panthers weak run defense.

LB Brian Simmons, Cincinnati (vs Pittsburgh)
Simmons recorded his 2nd INT of the season last week, and it was a good thing for owners that started him too because he only had 2 solo tackles in the game. In fact, over the past 3 games, he's only averaging 3.3 solos/game despite averaging nearly 6 solos/game over the 5 previous games. One would think the Steelers would be a good matchup for LBs given their return to the power running game, but they actually only rank #19 in fantasy point allowed to LBs (19.9/game) and also rank near the bottom of the league in percent of points allowed to LBs (28%). Simmons did have 9 solo tackles against the Steelers earlier this year but that was with a healthy Duce Staley. A closer look at the stats reveals that the Steelers allow plenty of tackles, but not much else in the way of sacks and turnovers, etc. which limits the upside of IDPs that face them as they just haven't been making any mistakes.

DB Gibril Wilson, NY Giants (vs Atlanta)
Wilson suffered a shoulder injury last week and is currently listed as questionable on the injury report. He's been a stud all year (3 sacks and 3 INTs) and was recently named defensive rookie of the month for October, but he has a risky start this week even if he was completely healthy. The Falcons rank dead last in fantasy points by opposing DBs (21.7/game) and % of points by DBs (34%) by a wide margin. Vick just hasn't had any success passing downfield and continues to rely instead on guys like Crumpler and Dunn and Griffith in the short to intermediate routes.

DB Antoine Winfield, Minnesota (vs Detroit)
Winfield is one of the league's leading tacklers so far this year, but he's had fewer than 6pts in 2 of his last 3 games. The Lions come to town with a struggling Joey Harrington, who just can't seem to make enough plays to keep drives alive. The Lions give up fewer IDP points than any other team in the league (55.6/game), and also rank #30 in fantasy points by opposing DBs (24.9/game) and #31 in total tackles by opposing DBs (20). Kevin Jones looked good last week and Roy Williams is getting healthier, so Winfield might do all right. But, few guys have had big games against this offense.

DB Roy Williams, Dallas (@ Baltimore)
Williams is having a decent year in terms of tackles, but he has yet to record any type of big play (0 sacks, 0 INTs, 0 FF), which is keeping him from being the stud we all expected him to be. To make matters worse, he's failed to crack 6pts in either of the past 2 games and now gets to face the Ravens, who barely have any passes in their playbook. Williams will likely be used as an 8th man in the box to help stop Jamal Lewis, which could help his numbers a bit, but the Ravens rank #27 in fantasy points by opposing DBs (26.2/game) and only gave up 24 points in last week's game against the Jets, where SS Erik Coleman only wound up with 3 solos.

DB Adam Archuleta, St. Louis (@ Buffalo)
It's hard for me to pick against Archuleta as I think he's one of the best and most consistent fantasy DBs out there, but he's in a very similar position to Roy Williams. He's only failed to reach 6pts in 2 out of 9 games so far this year, so this is certainly a risky pick but the Bills will likely run the ball as much as possible after the Sunday night debacle against the Patriots. Buffalo's stats allowed are nearly identical to the Ravens. They rank #26 in fantasy points allowed to DBs (26.4/game), and #31 in % of points to opposing DBs (37%). Archuleta's best chance of being productive this week is if he's brought up into the box to help slow down Willis McGahee and occasionally blitz Bledsoe.