This will be a weekly feature at FBG this season for IDP owners out there who are having some trouble deciding who to start on Sundays. I'll pick out several players normally ranked outside of the top-30 at each IDP grouping, who I think have favorable matchups this week and might be worth starting. Additionally, I'll highlight some "top-30 players" who could have trouble living up to expectations this week that you may want to consider benching. I'll also provide my reasoning so you can think about it and decide for yourselves. As a bonus, I'll also review my picks from the week before so you can see how accurate they have been. I'll be relying heavily on the IDP stats we are providing at FBG this year, especially the fantasy points/game and % of points allowed to each position grouping.

Review of Last Week's Selections

STRONG STARTS

• DL Rod Coleman, Atlanta (@ NY Giants): 1 solo, 1 asst, 2 PD = 4pts
• DL Greg Spires, Tampa Bay (vs San Francisco): 2 solo, 3 asst, 1 PD = 4.5pts
• DL Robert Mathis, Indianapolis (@ Chicago): 2 solo, 1 sack, 1 FF, 1 FR = 9pts
• DL Kabeer Gbaja-Biamila, Green Bay (@ Houston): 3 solo, 1 asst, 2 sacks = 9.5pts
• LB Pina Tinoisamoa, St. Louis (@ Buffalo): 3 solo, 1 asst = 3.5pts
• LB Jamie Winborn, San Francisco (vs Tampa Bay): 3 solo, 1 asst = 3.5pts
• LB Orlando Ruff, New Orleans (vs Denver): 9 solo, 3 asst = 10.5pts
• LB Na'il Diggs, Green Bay (@ Houston): 5 solo, 3 asst = 6.5pts
• DB Glenn Earl, Houston (vs Green Bay): 3 solo, 2 asst = 4pts
• DB Eugene Wilson, New England (@ Kansas City): 2 solo = 2pts
• DB Erik Coleman, NY Jets (@ Cleveland): 4 solo, 1 asst, 1 sack, 1 PD = 8.5pts
• DB Deshea Townsend, Pittsburgh (@ Cincinnati): 3 solo = 3pts

Hit Rate: 5 /12 (42%)

WEAK STARTS

• DL Alex Brown, Chicago (vs Indianapolis): 1 solo = 1pt
• DL Cornelius Griffin, Washington (@ Philadelphia): DNP = 0pts
• DL Marques Douglas, Baltimore (vs Dallas): 1 solo, 1 asst, 1 sack, 1 FF = 6.5pts
• DL Jason Taylor, Miami (@ Seattle): 1 solo, 1 asst, .5 sack, 1 FR, 1 PD = 6pts
• LB Antonio Pierce, Washington (@ Philadelphia): 6 solo, 2 asst = 7pts
• LB Takeo Spikes, Buffalo (vs St. Louis): 4 solo, 3 asst, 1 INT, 4 PD = 13.5pts
• LB Dan Morgan, Carolina (vs Arizona) (or his replacement): Vinny Ciurciu: 1 solo = 1pt
• LB Brian Simmons, Cincinnati (vs Pittsburgh): 4 solo, 2 asst = 5pts
• DB Gibril Wilson, NY Giants (vs Atlanta): DNP = 0pts
• DB Antoine Winfield, Minnesota (vs Detroit): 6 solo, 1 INT, 1 PD = 11pts
• DB Roy Williams, Dallas (@ Baltimore): 3 solo, 1 asst = 3.5pts
• DB Adam Archuleta, St. Louis (@ Buffalo): 6pts, 1 asst = 6.5pts

Hit Rate: 6/12 (50%)

A brief note about the hit rates: To provide an objective standard to evaluate these selections, 5 fantasy points will be used as the cutoff for DL and 6 fantasy points will be used as the cutoff for LB and DBs. Thus, when a player is listed as a strong start, that means I think he has a good chance to top 5 or 6 points based on his matchup, and when I say a player is a weak start, I think he has a good chance to put up fewer than 5 or 6 points. I'll continue to track my success throughout the season to try and provide you with the information you need to make your starting decisions.

This will be an abbreviated article due to the Thanksgiving games. If you have any questions about other players, feel free to post them on the FBG message boards or e-mail me at: [email protected].

Week 12 Selections

STRONG STARTS

• DL Kevin Carter, Tennessee (@ Houston)
  He's had a quality start in 2 of the past 3 weeks, including a huge game in week 10 against the Bears (7 solo, 4 asst, 3 sacks, 1 FF). He started off the season playing primarily at DT, but has been playing more at DE of late. The Texans rank #6 in fantasy points allowed to DL (22.8/game), and gave up 2 sacks and 39% of all IDP points to the Packers DL on Sunday night.



• DL Jason Ferguson, NY Jets (@ Arizona)
  He has 3 quality starts in the past 4 weeks, and the Cardinals are allowing 22.9pts/game to opposing DL, which ranks 5th in the league. The improved play of Dewayne Robertson and constant focus on John Abraham is allowing Ferguson to have another outstanding season. Thankfully, quite a few DTs have been productive fantasy players this season, which has increased the pool of viable DL candidates to start each week.



• LB Randall Godfrey, San Diego (@ Kansas City)
  Godfrey is averaging about 5 fantasy points/game over the last 5 weeks and has a favorable matchup with the Chiefs, who rank #2 in the league in fantasy points allowed to LBs (25.4/game). He and Donnie Edwards will be responsible for slowing down Derrick Blaylock on Sunday.



• LB DJ Williams, Denver (vs Oakland)
  Williams has cooled off a bit after a great start to the season, but the Raiders are giving up 24.4 pts/game to LBs (#4). Last week, the Chargers LBs accounted for 58% of the total IDP points allowed by Oakland's offense.



• DB Chris Gamble, Carolina (vs Tampa Bay)
  Gamble is on an incredible hot streak. Over the past 4 games, he has totaled 26 solos, 2 asst, 2 INT, and 4 PD, which equals 39 fantasy points or almost 10/game. Tampa is a decent matchup for DBs as they rank #18 on the year with 28.7pts/game, and last week they gave up 34pts to the 49ers DBs. The Bucs passing game has been very efficient lately and should give the Carolina DBs plenty of tackle opportunities this week.




• DB Nate Clements, Buffalo (@ Seattle)
  Clements has been a quality start in 3 of the past 4 weeks, and returned a punt for a TD last week against the Rams. This week, he faces the Seahawks who are rank #2 in fantasy points allowed to opposing DBs (32.4/game) and gave up 46 points to the Dolphins DBs last week. Patrick Surtain had 6 solos, 3 asst, 1 sack, 1 INT, and 2 PD against this team last week without K-Rob and Hasselbeck so Clements could be in for a big game.

WEAK STARTS

• DL James Hall, Detroit (vs Indianapolis)
  Hall is having a career season, and has 7 solos and 3 sacks in his last 2 games, but the Colts rank #32 in fantasy points allowed to DL (12.3/game). Last week, the Bears DL - one of the better groups in the league - only managed 8 fantasy points combined. This is a tough matchup as the Colts have only allowed 6 sacks all season long.



• DL Leonard Little, St Louis (@ Green Bay)
  Little isn't having anywhere near the same type of impact season he had last year, but he still ranks #20 in YTD points among DL. He's been a quality start in 5 out of 10 weeks so far this season, and has a tough matchup against the Packers this week. Green Bay ranks #31 in fantasy points allowed to DL (13.8/game) and are allowing an NFL-low 20% of total IDP points to DL. Favre's only been sacked 5 times all season, and last week the Texans DL only managed 10 solos and no sacks.



• LB Cato June, Indianapolis (@ Detroit)
  June currently ranks #15 among fantasy LBs and is leading his team in tackles, however he's failed to break 6 fantasy points in 2 of the past 3 weeks. This week, he faces a Lions offense that ranks dead last in fantasy points allowed to LBs (15.7/game) and only gave up 11.5 pts to the Vikings LB group last week. Until the Lions can start sustaining drives and converting more 3rd downs, this is going to be a tough matchup for most IDPs since they just don't get enough snaps.



• LB Nick Barnett, Green Bay (vs St Louis)
  Barnett got off to a good start, but has failed to reach the 6pt threshold in each of his past 3 starts. He's struggling to make an impact right now as teams are generally choosing to attack the Packers questionable secondary. Bills MLB faced this Rams offense last week and failed to reach 6 points for the first time all season. St Louis currently ranks 29th in fantasy points allowed to LBs (18.4/game) and that should continue on MNF unless Stephen Jackson gets a heavy workload.



• DB Tebucky Jones, New Orleans (@ Atlanta)
  Jones is putting up huge tackle numbers this year and ranks #2 among DBs with 58 solo tackles behind only Rodney Harrison. However, he's failed to reach 6 points in 2 of the past 3 weeks and the Falcons rank dead last in fantasy points allowed to DBs (21.2/game) and percent of IDP points allowed to DBs (33%). Last week, Giants DBs only managed 17 fantasy points combined against the Vick-led passing attack. Vick just hasn't had much success throwing deep this year so look for a low tackle output from Jones this week.



• DB Greg Wesley, Kansas City (vs San Diego)
  Wesley isn't having the same type of year in 2004 that he had in 2003, but he’s still been a solid contributor most weeks. However, he’s coming into this game having failed to break 6pts in 2 of the past 3 weeks, and now he faces a Chargers offense that ranks #28 in fantasy points allowed to DBs (26/game). The one factor that might save him is that Antonio Gates is a huge focus of the Chargers passing attack and Wesley should wind up covering him for most of the game. Last week, Gates had a big day and neither Raiders safety reached 6 fantasy points though so beware.