Rudnicki - IDP Strong/Weak Plays

This will be a weekly feature at FBG this season for IDP owners out there who are having some trouble deciding who to start on Sundays. I'll pick out several players normally ranked outside of the top-30 at each IDP grouping, who I think have favorable matchups this week and might be worth starting. Additionally, I'll highlight some "top-30 players" who could have trouble living up to expectations this week that you may want to consider benching. I'll also provide my reasoning so you can think about it and decide for yourselves. As a bonus, I'll also review my picks from the week before so you can see how accurate they have been. I'll be relying heavily on the IDP stats we are providing at FBG this year, especially the fantasy points/game and % of points allowed to each position grouping.

Review of Last Week's Selections

STRONG STARTS

DL Kevin Carter, Tennessee (@ Houston): 2 solo, 1 asst = 2.5pts

DL Jason Ferguson, NY Jets (@ Arizona): 1 solo, 1 asst = 1.5pts

LB Randall Godfrey, San Diego (@ Kansas City): 5 solo, 1 sack = 8pts

LB DJ Williams, Denver (vs Oakland): 4 solo, 1 asst, 1 PD = 5.5pts

DL Chris Gamble, Carolina (vs Tampa Bay): 4 solo, 1 asst, 1 FF, 1 PD = 7.5pts

DB Nate Clements, Buffalo (@ Seattle): 6 solo, 1 asst = 6.5pts

Hit Rate: 3/6 (50%)

WEAK STARTS

DL James Hall, Detroit (vs Indianapolis): 1 solo, 1 PD = 2pts

DL Leonard Little, St Louis (@ Green Bay): 1 solo = 1pt

LB Cato June, Indianapolis (@ Detroit): 4 solo, 1 asst, 1 PD = 5.5pts

LB Nick Barnett, Green Bay (vs St Louis): 4 solo = 4pts

DB Tebucky Jones, New Orleans (@ Atlanta): 1 solo = 1pt

DB Greg Wesley, Kansas City (vs San Diego): 0pts (INJ)

Hit Rate: 6/6 (100%)

A brief note about the hit rates: To provide an objective standard to evaluate these selections, 5 fantasy points will be used as the cutoff for DL and 6 fantasy points will be used as the cutoff for LB and DBs. Thus, when a player is listed as a strong start, that means I think he has a good chance to top 5 or 6 points based on his matchup, and when I say a player is a weak start, I think he has a good chance to put up fewer than 5 or 6 points. I'll continue to track my success throughout the season to try and provide you with the information you need to make your starting decisions.

Week 13 Selections

STRONG STARTS

DL Lance Johnstone/Kenechi Udeze, Minnesota (@ Chicago)
The Craig Krenzel era appears to be over in Chicago, which could also put a stop to the gold rush of sacks for opposing DL. However, Chad Hutchinson wasn't all that great in Dallas when he took 34 sacks while playing 9 games back in 2002. On the season, the Bears rank #2 in sacks allowed to DL (3/game) and they should have some problems with the Vikings line that has been doing a pretty good job lately of rushing the passer. Johnstone is currently leading the team in sacks with 8, while Udeze is 3rd with 4. The Bears also figure to rely heavily on the running game, so both DEs could get a few more tackle opportunities than they normally do.

DL Osi Omenyiura, NY Giants (@ Washington)
This is the one player the Chargers really wanted in the Eli Manning trade that the Giants just refused to part with. He's been playing great of late, and hasn't really dropped off much after Strahan went down with an injury. He had 4.5 sacks in a recent 5 game stretch, and he's coming off a 5 solo effort last week against the Eagles. Washington currently ranks #10 in fantasy points allowed to DL (20.7/game), and Ramsey isn't exactly known as a QB that gets rid of the ball quickly so he should get some quality sack chances.

DL Montae Reagor, Indianapolis (vs Tennessee)
Reagor has 7 solos and 3 sacks over his past 3 games for an average of 5.3 points/game. The Colts defensive line has been making things very uncomfortable for opposing QBs as they can now come in waves, with speed rushers Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis leading the charge. But, Reagor has been getting a good push from the inside and is currently ranks 3rd on the Colts in sacks with 4. Tennessee ranks #9 in fantasy points allowed to DL (20.8/game), and the Titans have been giving up over 2 sacks/game, so Reagor has a good chance to build on his string of consecutive quality starts.

DL Greg Spires, Tampa Bay (vs Atlanta)
Spires is having a very good season this year and putting up a lot of tackles for a DE, but he has slowed down a bit in the past couple weeks with just 3 solos, 4 assists, and 1 sack. He should be able to turn things around this week when Michael Vick comes to town. Atlanta currently ranks #7 in fantasy points allowed to DL (21.9/game), and in the top-5 of percent of points allowed to DL (34%). Vick has been getting sacked 3 times/game on average and the Falcons have a strong running game which has led to the 4th most solo tackles by opposing DL (12.4/game).

LB Rob Morris, Indianapolis (vs Tennessee)
After not doing much and not playing much of late, Morris had a monster Thanksgiving Day game against the Lions (7 solos, 1 sack, 1 FF) and was awarded a game ball. He now gets to face the Titans, who are allowing more fantasy points to LBs (26/game) than any other team in the league. Even when playing without Chris Brown last week, the opposing LBs still managed to combine for 24.5 points. He'll only be a 2-down player, which hurts his upside, but he could be worth a shot this week if you're looking for a sleeper at LB, based simply on the matchup.

LB Landon Johnson, Cincinnati (@ Baltimore)
Landon Johnson looks to be getting better each week and he could solidify his grip on the starting MLB job for next year if he keeps it up. He has 20 solos, 7 asst, and 2 sacks in his last 3 games, which makes him one of the hottest IDP commodities out there, especially in dynasty leagues. This week, he'll face the Ravens offense who rank #15 in fantasy points allowed to opposing LBs (21/game). Last week in the mud against New England without the services of Jamal Lewis, the Patriots LBs combined for 23.5 points so Johnson should be safe to keep in the lineup regardless of whether Lewis plays this week.

LB Scott Fujita, Kansas City (@ Oakland)
With the injury to Shawn Barber and problems at MLB, Fujita likely becomes a very strong start for the rest of the season. He's leading the Chiefs in tackles and has had 2 huge games out of his last 3 (12pts @ NO, 12pts vs SD). This week, he'll face the Raiders who are giving up the 4th most points to LBs (23.7/game) and 35% of all IDP points to LBs. In their game against Denver last weekend, the Broncos LBs accounted for a ridiculously high 58% of all IDP points. The loss of Wheatley could be a factor here, but the Raiders have been a RBBC all year so I don't expect much of a drop-off.

LB Matt Stewart, Atlanta (@ Tampa Bay)
Stewart has 4 quality starts out of his last 6 games, including a 13pt game against the Bucs 2 weeks ago. He'll hope for a repeat performance this week as the Falcons look to run away with the NFC South. This offense has done a good job of moving the chains and sustaining drives thanks primarily to the play of Pittman and Griese. Tampa currently ranks #7 in fantasy points allowed to LBs (22.3/game), and this should be a solid matchup for the Falcons LB group.

DB Dwaine Carpenter, San Francisco (@ St Louis)
Thanks to injuries in the secondary, Carpenter was switched from safety to CB and has now started 3 straight games for the 49ers. In those games, he's managed to compile 18 solo tackles and 1 sack. He is a 28-year old former Arena football player who has worked his way steadily up the ladder and is now providing some aggressive play that is catching the eye of the coaches there. He has struggled in pass coverage, so opposing QBs should continue to throw at him, but he's a solid tackler and can hit like a safety so he can contribute in run support. He'll certainly be tested plenty this week, as the Rams love to pass the ball downfield to their WRs, and that offense is currently allowing more points to DBs (32.5) than any other team in the league.

DB Sheldon Brown, Philadelphia (vs Green Bay)
Brown is another player who is finally getting an opportunity for extensive playing time and making the most of it. He's the 2nd leading tackler on the Eagles defense and should get plenty of action this week against Favre and the Packers. Brown's numbers are down a bit the past 2 weeks (5 solos, 1 asst, 3 PD), but he's had 4 games this season with 6 or more solo tackles and is not the type of player to shy away from contact. With Javon Walker and Donald Driver seeing a lot of passes, Brown should get plenty of opportunities to make plays.

DB Marcus Trufant, Seattle (vs Dallas)
Trufant hasn't quite become the shutdown CB Seahawks fans were hoping for after his strong rookie season, but he's outplayed most of his counterparts from last year's strong rookie CB class. He's currently the Seahawks second leading tackler and has been averaging over 6 solo tackles/game over the past 6 weeks, with 1 sack and 1 INT thrown in as a bonus. The Cowboys offense will turn back to Vinny Testaverde after Drew Henson struggled in the first half last week against the Bears, and this offense ranks #4 in fantasy points allowed to DBs (31.8/game), with an NFL-high 48% of all IDP points going to DBs. They certainly haven't been afraid to pass the ball, and Vinny hasn't done a great job of protecting it either as they rank in the top-3 of INTs thrown.

DB Terrence McGee, Buffalo (@ Miami)
McGee got his chance to start at CB this year thanks to a Troy Vincent injury, and he's played very well for the most part. Teams have been much more willing to throw to his side of the field than to Nate Clements', but he's done a good job of keeping WRs in front of him and making tackles. He's a playmaker, and has provided a great spark for the Bills kickoff return unit, providing extra value in leagues that award points for return yardage and scores. He has been on fire the past 2 games, totaling just under 30 fantasy points. Meanwhile, the Dolphins offense ranks #6 on the year in fantasy points allowed to DBs (31.4/game), and gave up 37.5 to the 49ers DBs last week.

WEAK STARTS

DL Jevon Kearse, Philadelphia (vs Green Bay)
The Eagles are winning and Kearse has stayed healthy, but I don't think he's been nearly as dominant as many expected (including the Eagles?). Anyway, he comes into this game with only 4 solo tackles in his last 4 games, although he does have 1.5 sacks in his last 2. At this point, he's only been a quality DL start in 4 out of 11 games on the season, so it's not much of a stretch putting him in this category. When you consider that Favre has only been sacked 5 times in 11 games and the Packers rank #31 in fantasy points allowed to DL with 13.9pts/game, then it almost seems like a certainty that Kearse will struggle. Unfortunately for Kearse owners, most IDP leagues don't reward points for blocked kicks as he had a blocked punt last week against the Giants.

DL Grant Wistrom, Seattle (vs Dallas)
Wistrom was playing well early this year before missing a month to injury. He has 7 solo tackles in the past 2 weeks, but has yet to record a sack since returning to the lineup. Now, he'll face the Cowboys who are only allowing 15pts/game (rank #29) to opposing DL. Even the Bears defensive line struggled against them last week (despite a huge day from Julius Jones), putting up only a combined 15.5pts, the same total the Seahawks managed against the Bills. The Cowboys offensive line has done a good job of preventing DL from sacking the QB, and are much more susceptible to blitzing LBs and DBs.

DL Marques Douglas, Baltimore (vs Cincinnati)
Douglas is currently on a tear with 10 solos, 5 asst, 3.5 sacks, and 1 FF in his last 3 games, so benching him would likely be a mistake. BUT, he does have a bad matchup this week as the Bengals currently rank near the bottom of the league in fantasy points allowed to DL (15/game), and despite a 200-yard rushing day from Rudi last week, the Browns LBs only managed 4 solo tackles and 11 combined fantasy points.

DL Greg Ellis, Dallas (@ Seattle)
Ellis had one of the best hot streaks of any DL this season when he had 6 sacks in 4 games early on, but he's only managed 2 sacks in the 6 games since then (with 1.5 coming against the woeful Bears on Thanksgiving day). He comes into this game playing pretty well as he's been a quality start in each of the past 3 weeks, but the Seahawks offense has not been kind to opposing DL this year. They currently rank #27 in fantasy points allowed to DL (15.5/game), with only 22% of all IDP points going to DL. Last week, the Bills DL (which has been playing great lately) only managed 17 total points and 1 sack. With Walter Jones and Steve Hutchinson lined up across from him, this could be a week to consider resting Ellis from your fantasy lineup.

LB Derek Smith, San Francisco (@ St Louis)
I think Derek Smith is an underrated player by a lot of people. For any shortcomings he may have in terms of his coverage ability, he's simply a tackling machine who has been very consistent over the past few years. However, he did recently have a 2 game slump that saw him compile only 8 solos and 1 assist in weeks 10 and 11. He bounced back with a solid effort last week against the Dolphins (5 solos, 4 asst, 1 sack, and 1 PD), but he faces a tough test this week in the Rams. St Louis currently ranks #31 in fantasy points allowed to LBs (17.6), and dead last in percentage of IDP points going to LBs (24%). The injury to Marshall Faulk could actually be good news for Smith owners, as Steven Jackson may get more carries between the tackles than Marshall normally does. But, Martz is still too pass happy to abandon the pass, and you can expect the 49ers DBs to likely come through with the big games here.

LB Nick Barnett, Green Bay (@ Philadelphia)
Barnett isn't playing bad enough to be considered a bust, but he's certainly been a disappointment to fantasy owners who were expecting top-10 type numbers from him this season. Despite a shaky Packers defense, he just hasn't been making enough plays. The injuries to Grady Jackson have likely contributed to his demise a bit, as the DL hasn't been doing a great job keeping blockers off him. He still leads the team in tackles, but he only has 17 solo tackles over his last 5 games, and hasn't been a quality start since October. The Eagles rank #30 in fantasy points allowed to LBs (17.8/game), including an NFL-low 11.8 solo tackles/game. Could be another slow day for Barnett and it might be time to look elsewhere if you have better options on your bench.

LB Lance Briggs, Chicago (vs Minnesota)
Unlike Barnett, Briggs has been a pleasant surprise this year. Although many expected good numbers from him, I doubt anyone expected numbers this good (currently ranked #11 in YTD LB scoring). He's leading the team in tackles and has 2 double-digit solo tackle games in his past 3. He faces a Vikings team this week that just got Moss back and has surprisingly been struggling in the running game of late. On the season, the Vikings currently rank #26 in fantasy points allowed to LBs (19.5/game), and Briggs could have some trouble like he did the last time these two teams faced each other (4 solos, 1 asst).

DB Ronde Barber, Tampa Bay (vs Atlanta)
Barber is one of the best fantasy CBs there is, and is having another stellar season, but his tackle numbers have been slipping a bit the past few weeks (8 solo tackles in last 3 games). He's made up for that with an INT, and a sack, but those types of plays are hard to rely on from week to week. He faces the Falcons this week, who have one of the worst passing attacks in the league, so Barber doesn't figure to get much action. Atlanta currently ranks #32 in fantasy points allowed to DBs (20.6/game) as Vick just doesn't like to throw deep too often and he does a pretty good job of protecting the football. Tough matchup.

DB Darren Sharper, Green Bay (@ Philadelphia)
Sharper has been slow in coming back from an injury, but he had his first quality start since mid-October on MNF against the Rams. That figures though considering they give up more points to DBs than anybody. Now, he faces the Eagles, who are much tougher and rank at the opposite end of the list, giving up only 24.2pts/game (ranked #31). Sharper is capable of making an impact in a variety of ways, but based simply on the matchup and his struggles of the past month or so, this looks like a game where owners shouldn't be too afraid of benching him if they have better options available.

DB Adrian Wilson, Arizona (@ Detroit)
Wilson is having a rebound type of season, after doing very well earlier in his career. He's probably been the best player on an improved Cardinals defense, and has been a huge help in run support. He leads the team in tackles and has been a quality start in all but 1 game so far this season. Despite all that, the Lions come into the game ranked #30 in fantasy points allowed to DBs (25.6/game). Part of the reason for that is Harrington has been too patient in the passing game and hasn't taken enough shots downfield. It also hasn't helped that their running game has struggled, which has led to very few long drives. The running game seems to have picked up the past couple weeks behind the running of Kevin Jones, but I'm not sure it's enough to allow Wilson to maintain his pace. 6pts won't be tough for him to reach, but I wouldn't expect much more than that this week.

DB Terrence Kiel, San Diego (vs Denver)
Kiel has had an inconsistent year. As an example, in one 5-game stretch, he put up these solo tackle numbers: 3, 8, 1, 7, 2. Very tough to rely on players that are that up and down. What generally happens is owners bench him after the bad game and then start him after the good game, and wind up getting the worst possible production from him over the season. He's only got 6 solo tackles over his past 2 games, and has just 1 quality start in his past 4. The Broncos rank #25 in fantasy points allowed to DBs (27.3/game), so he could have some trouble getting back on track.

If you have any questions about other players, feel free to post them on the FBG message boards or e-mail me at: [email protected].