Rudnicki - IDP Strong/Weak Plays

This will be a weekly feature at FBG this season for IDP owners out there who are having some trouble deciding who to start on Sundays. I'll pick out several players normally ranked outside of the top-30 at each IDP grouping, who I think have favorable matchups this week and might be worth starting. Additionally, I'll highlight some "top-30 players" who could have trouble living up to expectations this week that you may want to consider benching. I'll also provide my reasoning so you can think about it and decide for yourselves. As a bonus, I'll also review my picks from the week before so you can see how accurate they have been. I'll be relying heavily on the IDP stats we are providing at FBG this year, especially the fantasy points/game and % of points allowed to each position grouping.

Review of Last Week's Selections

STRONG STARTS

DL Lance Johnstone/Kenechi Udeze, Minnesota (@ Chicago): 2 solo, 1 sack, 1 FF = 7 pts; 2 solo, 1 asst = 2.5 pts

DL Osi Omenyiura, NY Giants (@ Washington): 4 solo = 4 pts

DL Montae Reagor, Indianapolis (vs Tennessee): 4 solo, 2 Asst, 1 sack = 8 pts

DL Greg Spires, Tampa Bay (vs Atlanta): 1 solo, 2 FR, 1 PD = 6 pts

LB Rob Morris, Indianapolis (vs Tennessee): 7 solo, 3 Asst, 1 sack, 1 TD = 17.5 pts

LB Landon Johnson, Cincinnati (@ Baltimore): 4 solo, 3 Asst = 5.5 pts

LB Scott Fujita, Kansas City (@ Oakland): 2 solo = 2 pts

LB Matt Stewart, Atlanta (@ Tampa Bay): 4 solo, 1 asst, 1 PD = 5.5 pts

DB Dwaine Carpenter, San Francisco (@ St Louis): 5 solo = 5 pts

DB Sheldon Brown, Philadelphia (vs Green Bay): 4 solo, 1 asst, 1 INT, 4 PD = 12.5 pts

DB Marcus Trufant, Seattle (vs Dallas): 6 solo, 1 asst, 2 PD = 8.5 pts

DB Terrence McGee, Buffalo (@ Miami): 5 solo, 1 asst, 1 INT, 2 PD, 1 TD = 17.5 pts

Hit Rate: 7/13 (54%)

WEAK STARTS

DL Jevon Kearse, Philadelphia (vs Green Bay): 0 pts

DL Grant Wistrom, Seattle (vs Dallas): 5 solo, 2 asst, 1 sack, 1 PD = 10 pts

DL Marques Douglas, Baltimore (vs Cincinnati): 1 solo, 1 asst = 1.5 pts

DL Greg Ellis, Dallas (@ Seattle): 2 solo, 1 PD = 3 pts

LB Derek Smith, San Francisco (@ St Louis): 3 solo, 2 asst = 4 pts

LB Nick Barnett, Green Bay (@ Philadelphia): 10 solo, 1 PD = 11 pts

LB Lance Briggs, Chicago (vs Minnesota): 5 solo = 5 pts

DB Ronde Barber, Tampa Bay (vs Atlanta): 4 solo, 1 PD = 5 pts

DB Darren Sharper, Green Bay (@ Philadelphia): 1 solo, 1 asst = 1.5 pts

DB Adrian Wilson, Arizona (@ Detroit): 5 solo, 5 asst = 7.5 pts

DB Terrence Kiel, San Diego (vs Denver): 5 solo, 1 PD = 6 pts

Hit Rate: 7/12 (58%)

A brief note about the hit rates: To provide an objective standard to evaluate these selections, 5 fantasy points will be used as the cutoff for DL and 6 fantasy points will be used as the cutoff for LB and DBs. Thus, when a player is listed as a strong start, that means I think he has a good chance to top 5 or 6 points based on his matchup, and when I say a player is a weak start, I think he has a good chance to put up fewer than 5 or 6 points. I'll continue to track my success throughout the season to try and provide you with the information you need to make your starting decisions.

Week 14 Selections

STRONG STARTS

DL John Henderson, Jacksonville (vs Chicago)
May not belong here, because he's been playing like a stud for most of this season, but this is too good of a matchup to ignore. I went with Henderson because Stroud has cooled off of late after great play in the first half of the season. He has put up at least 5 points in 4 of the past 6 weeks, and the Bears rank #2 in fantasy points allowed to DL (27.8/week). In case you were worried that the change to Hutchinson might hurt those numbers, don't be too scared as the Vikings DL put up more points against them last week than any other DL in the league (43.5pts).Kevin Williams (top scoring fantasy DL for week 13) and friends put up 5 sacks, 22 solo tackles, and a FF and FR.

DL Jared Allen, Kansas City (@ Tennessee)
Allen has been one of the only bright spots on the Chiefs defense this year, as he's currently leading the team in sacks with 7. He's scored 5 or more points in 2 of the past 3 weeks and faces off this week against a Titans offense that gave up 6 sacks and 42 fantasy pts to the Colts DL last week. The Titans rank #7 on the year in fantasy points allowed to opposing DL (22.6/game), so it isn't solely dependent on Billy Volek playing at QB.

DL Reggie Hayward, Denver (vs Miami)
Hayward has been climbing the DL charts lately and has a sack in 4 straight games. He had 8.5 sacks as a situational pass rusher last year and has a good chance to top that number this week if he can keep up the pace. This week, he faces a Dolphins team that ranks #4 on the year in fantasy points allowed to DL (23.2/game). Last week, they kept the Bills DL in check with just 19pts total, but that game was an aberration. It was an unexpected shoot-out and Feeley ended up throwing 5 INTs. The Broncos should be able to get an early lead playing at home, which will allow Hayward to tee off on Feeley for most of the 2nd half.

DL Monte Reagor, Indianapolis (@ Houston)
Reagor is on a tear with 3 straight quality starts and 4 sacks in his last 3 games. With guys like Freeney and Mathis drawing plenty of attention on the outside, he gets better matchups on the inside and has been taking advantage of them. It also doesn't hurt that the Colts offense has been scoring so much that he has few run defense responsibilities to worry about. The Texans rank #5 on the year in fantasy points allowed to DL (22.6/game) and are giving up nearly 3 sacks per game.

LB Carlos Emmons, New York Giants (@ Baltimore)
Emmons is starting to live up to the big contract he signed this offseason with 21 solos and 7 asst in the past 3 weeks, including an 11pt game against the Redskins last week. This week, he'll face the Ravens, who rank #11 on the season in fantasy points allowed to LBs (21.5/game). Last week, playing without Jamal Lewis, the Bengals LBs finished with 28 total tackles and 26.5 fantasy points. The Ravens should be able to run on the Giants defense, giving Emmons plenty of tackle opps.

LB Derrick Pope, Miami (@ Denver)
Pope has replaced Zach Thomas at MLB in Miami and appears to have picked up where Zach left off, with 9 solos, 3 asst, and 2 sacks in the past 2 games. Thomas is expected to miss more time and with the season already lost, there's not much reason to rush him back. Pope was a safety in college so he certainly has the range to make plays sideline to sideline. This week, he faces a Broncos team that ranks #6 on the season in fantasy points allowed to LBs (22.8/game), which is good for 34% of all IDP points they give up. Last week, the Broncos gave up 35.6 pts to the Chargers LBs.

LB Chris Draft, Atlanta (vs Oakland)
I had high hopes for Draft coming into this season with the move to MLB, like many probably did, but he has been a pretty big disappointment and doesn't seem to be a great fit for the Falcons new defense. He may be getting more comfortable now though as he has 6 solo tackles in each of the past 2 games. He gets taken out on passing downs so he has limited upside, but the Raiders have been a solid matchup for LBs this year. They currently rank #7 in fantasy points allowed to LBs (22.7/game). The loss of Wheatley may hurt as the Chiefs LBs only managed 11.5 pts total last week against them. It looks like a solid matchup, but beware if you're really counting on him.

LB EJ Henderson, Minnesota (vs Seattle)
Henderson has battled injuries and inconsistency for a lot of the season, but he has been putting up solid numbers lately and fulfilling some of the expectations IDP owners had for him. He's got 19 solo tackles over the past 3 weeks, and faces a Seattle team this week who rank #8 on the season in fantasy points allowed to LBs (22.7/game), including over 15 solo tackles. With Henderson being the best producing LB on the Vikings of late, this looks like a strong play to me.

DB Brock Marion, Detroit (@ Green Bay)
Marion has been a quality start in 3 of the past 5 games, and he finished with 5 points in each of the misses. So, he's been putting up fairly consistent numbers of late, with 35 solo tackles in his last 6 games. The matchup with the Packers definitely favors a FS as Favre has no fear of throwing deep early and often. On the season, the Packers offense ranks #1 in the league in fantasy points allowed to DBs (32.8/game) and percent of points allowed to DBs (48%). Last week, Eagles DBs finished with 39.5 fantasy points combined, thanks primarily to the blowout forcing the Packers to throw for most of the game.

DB Chris Gamble, Carolina (vs St Louis)
In leagues that count special teams tackles, Gamble has gone over the 6pt threshold in each of the past 4 weeks. He's a physical CB and a great athlete who is still learning the position, so teams aren't afraid to test him. The Rams rank #3 on the season in fantasy points allowed to DBs (32.2/game), and the injuries at RB and QB could mean more INT opportunities for Gamble, who has 3 on the season already.

DB Kenoy Kennedy, Denver (vs Miami)
Kennedy has been a quality start in 3 of his past 5 games, including a 12.5pt performance last week against the Chargers, who have generally been a tough matchup for DBs this year. This week, he'll face AJ Feeley and the Dolphins, who are giving up the 4th most fantasy points to DBs (32.1/game) in the league. Feeley threw 5 INTs to the Bills last week (whose DBs combined for 40pts) so Kennedy could get a few opportunities if Hayward and the guys up front can force some bad throws.

DB Nate Clements, Buffalo (vs Cleveland)
The Bills CB tandem of Clements and McGee has been on fire lately thanks to the Bills offensive explosion in recent weeks. Clements has been putting up solid tackle numbers with 17 solos in the past 3 weeks, and he also has 3 INTs, 2 FF, and a FR on the season (plus a punt return for a TD). The Browns rank #9 on the season in fantasy points allowed to DBs (30/game) and gave up the 6th most points to DBs in the league (38) last week in a blowout loss to the Pats. It's not clear who will be starting at QB for the Browns, but whoever it is will likely be forced to throw to try and stay in this game.

WEAK STARTS

DL Patrick Kerney, Atlanta (vs Oakland)
Kerney has been playing well ever since Rod Coleman returned with 3 quality starts in his last 4 games, but Oakland hasn't been giving up many points to any DL all year. They rank #31 on the year with only 14.6pts/game and 22% of all IDP points allowed on average to opposing DL, and are allowing an NFL-low 7.2 solo tackles/game to DL. The Chiefs DL only managed 12pts total against them last week.

DL James Hall, Detroit (@ Green Bay)
Hall is .5 sack away from reaching double digits on the season and has had a truly breakout season. He's also on a bit of a hot streak with sacks and a quality start in 3 of his past 4 games. But, the Packers are a bad matchup for any DL. Favre had only been sacked about 5 times before last week's game against the Eagles, when the number doubled, although Kearse was shut out in that contest. On the season, the Packers now rank #30 in fantasy points allowed to DL (15/game) and are allowing an NFL-low 22% of all IDP points to DL. The injuries to Ahman Green surely don't help the tackle numbers either.

DL Kabeer Gbaja-Biamila, Green Bay (vs Detroit)
KGB has been putting his owners through a roller coaster of a season. He went in with a lot of promise, then disappointed early on, then got hot, and now he might be cooling off after 4 good games in a row. Last week, he only managed 1 asst against the Eagles but that was a blowout loss so it isn't all that surprising perhaps. He faces another tough matchup this week though in the Lions, who rank #28 on the season in fantasy points allowed to DL (15.8/game) and are only giving up 8.2 solo tackles/game to them. Last week, the Cardinals DL only managed an NFL-low 11.5pts combined, which was good for only 18% of the total IDP points, despite (or because of) a big running day from Kevin Jones. If Jones keeps getting sprung for big gains, KGB will be rendered ineffective just like he was against Westbrook a week ago.

DL Alex Brown, Chicago (@ Jacksonville)
Brown contributed to the Bears upset win over the Vikings last week with 3 solos and a sack, but that came after 2 straight games with just 1 solo in each. He has been inconsistent most of his career, despite having the ability to dominate on occasion. The Jags come into this game ranked #15 in fantasy points allowed to DL (19.7/game), which ranks them right at the league average. However, they held the Steelers DL to just 11.5pts last week, which made up just 19% of the total IDP points allowed.

LB Antonio Pierce, Washington (vs Philadelphia)
This is admittedly a risky pick, as Pierce has been a quality start for 6 straight weeks while averaging nearly 7 solos/game. He also had 8 solos when they faced the Eagles a few weeks ago. However, I expect a different game this week thanks the renewed success of Portis and the running game. The Redskins will look to run the ball early and often, in hopes of keeping the Eagles offense off the field. The strong Redskins defense should also be able to force some 3 and outs, further limiting the number of tackle opportunities for Pierce. On the season, the Eagles offense ranks #31 in fantasy points allowed to LBs (17.8/game). Nick Barnett wound up with good numbers last week against this offense though, so those numbers could be deceiving.

LB Will Witherspoon, Carolina (vs St Louis)
Witherspoon is having a strong season thanks mostly to his big play ability. He had 35 solo tackles over a recent 4-game stretch, but has cooled off lately with just 9 solos in his last 2 games (although he did pick up an INT in last week's game against the Saints). He'll face a Rams offense that has avoided the run and may be without the full services of Marshall Faulk and Steven Jackson, while also missing Marc Bulger. On the season, the Rams rank #30 in fantasy points allowed to LBs (17.9/game), with an NFL-low 15.5 total tackles allowed on average. The passing offense of the Rams tends to keep the LBs from getting involved in too many plays, so this should be a tough matchup for Witherspoon, even with Chris Chandler under center.

LB Dat Nguyen, Dallas (vs New Orleans)
Nguyen is having a decent season and has 3 straight quality starts, but he's only topped 5 solo tackles once in the past 7 games. He faces a Saints offense that only allowed 15.5pts to the Panthers LBs last week and ranks #25 on the season in fantasy points allowed to LBs (19.4/game). The Saints have been struggling running the ball lately, and the Cowboys pass defense is pretty bad so I expect Brooks and the WRs to be the focus this week.

LB Terrell Suggs, Baltimore (vs NY Giants)
Suggs has not suffered a sophomore slump and only needs .5 sack to reach double digits for the 2nd year in a row. Thanks primarily to his sack numbers, he's been a quality start in 2 of his past 3 games, but the Giants come into the game not giving up many points to LBs. Last week, Redskins LBs only managed 9.5 pts combined. On the season, the Giants currently rank #27 in points allowed to LBs (19.2/game) and #32 in percentage of points allowed to LBs (25%). Eli is definitely getting rid of the ball quicker than Warner was, which has cut down on the sacks they were allowing.

DB Darren Sharper, Green Bay (vs Detroit)
Sharper only has one quality start in the past 4 weeks, including a 2pt effort last week against the Eagles. The Lions rank #30 on the season in fantasy points allowed to DBs (26.3/game) due primarily to Harrington's inability or unwillingness to throw downfield. If the Lions continue to rely heavily on Kevin Jones as they have in the past few weeks, that will make it harder for Sharper to make a big impact and put up quality numbers, as he is a different type of safety than Adrian Wilson (who did pretty well last week).

DB Dunta Robinson, Houston (vs Indianapolis)
This guy has been putting up top notch fantasy numbers as myself and many others expected. He's such a solid tackler that he can make plays even when he isn't being thrown at. Robinson has 23 solo tackles, 3 asst, 2 INTs, and 7 PDs in his past 3 games. Even though the Colts throw the ball a ton, opposing DBs have not fared that well against them this year. Indy's offense ranks #28 in the league in fantasy points allowed to DBs (26.7/game). Last week, Titans DBs only managed 25 fantasy points against them. With so many weapons at his disposal, Manning doesn't have to test a rookie CB, and instead can simply throw to whoever is open. With Marcus Coleman going on IR, this could be a huge week for Brandon Stokley over the middle.

DB Robert Griffith, Cleveland (@ Buffalo)
Griffith has been a quality start in 4 of his past 5 games, including 7 or more solo tackles in 3 of those. But, the Bills rank just #27 in the league in fantasy points allowed to DBs (26.8/game), and are only giving up 38% of all IDP points to DBs, which ranks them in the bottom 5. Last week, with Bledsoe throwing 4 TD passes, Dolphins DBs wound up with just 12 solo tackles and 17 fantasy points combined, ranking 30th in the league. If McGahee has another big game, Griffith may win up with enough tackles to be a decent start, but that's about it.

DB Bryan Scott, Atlanta (vs Oakland)
Scott has 17 solo tackles over the past 4 weeks and no big plays. This week, he'll face the Raiders who rank #19 in fantasy points allowed to DBs on the season (28/game). Last week, however, the Raiders offense only allowed 21 points to the Chiefs DBs combined. The season ending injury to Ronald Curry should have a negative impact on the passing game, which likely means fewer pass attempts and fewer tackles for Scott.

If you have any questions about other players, feel free to post them on the FBG message boards or e-mail me at: [email protected].