IDP Strong and Weak Plays – Week 15

I’m implementing a change for the next few weeks, as most leagues have likely entered the playoffs and waiver claims may not be available. I’m simply going to list 12 players that I think have very favorable matchups this week and 12 players that have difficult matchups. Unlike previous weeks, I’m not going to pay much attention to where the player would normally rank. I did, however, avoid discussing players that I consider a must-start. Good luck for those of you still in the playoffs.

Review of Last Week’s Selections:

STRONG STARTS

DL John Henderson, Jacksonville (vs Chicago): 5 solo, 1 asst, 1 sack = 8.5pts

DL Jared Allen, Kansas City (@ Tennessee): 3 solo, 1 asst, 1 sack = 6.5pts

DL Reggie Hayward, Denver (vs Miami): 1 asst

DL Monte Reagor, Indianapolis (@ Houston): 2 solo = 2pts

LB Carlos Emmons, New York Giants (@ Baltimore): 5 solo, 4 asst = 7pts

LB Derrick Pope, Miami (@ Denver): 8 solo, 5 asst, 1 FF = 12.5pts

LB Chris Draft, Atlanta (vs Oakland): 1 solo, 1 asst = 1.5pts

LB EJ Henderson, Minnesota (vs Seattle): 4 solo, 2 asst = 5pts

DB Brock Marion, Detroit (@ Green Bay): 3 solo = 3pts

DB Chris Gamble, Carolina (vs St Louis): 2 solo, 1 INT, 1 PD = 7pts

DB Kenoy Kennedy, Denver (vs Miami): 5 solo, 3 asst, 1 sack, 2 PD = 11.5pts

DB Nate Clements, Buffalo (vs Cleveland): 1 solo, 2 asst, 1 INT, 1 FR, 1 PD = 9pts

Hit Rate: 7/12 (58%)

WEAK STARTS

DL Patrick Kerney, Atlanta (vs Oakland): 3 solo, 1 asst = 3.5pts

DL James Hall, Detroit (@ Green Bay): 1 solo, 1 asst = 1.5pts

DL Kabeer Gbaja-Biamila, Green Bay (vs Detroit): 5 solo, 1 asst, 1 sack = 8.5pts

DL Alex Brown, Chicago (@ Jacksonville): 1 solo = 1pt

LB Antonio Pierce, Washington (vs Philadelphia): 1 solo, 1 FF, 1 FR, 1 PD = 6pts

LB Will Witherspoon, Carolina (vs St Louis): 4 solo, 2 asst, 1 INT, 1 PD = 10pts

LB Dat Nguyen, Dallas (vs New Orleans): 7 solo, 4 asst = 9.5pts

LB Terrell Suggs, Baltimore (vs NY Giants): 2 solo, 1 asst = 2.5pts

DB Darren Sharper, Green Bay (vs Detroit): 4 solo, 2 asst = 5pts

DB Dunta Robinson, Houston (vs Indianapolis): 4 solo, 2 sacks, 1 FF, 1 PD = 13pts

DB Robert Griffith, Cleveland (@ Buffalo): 5 solo, 5 asst = 7.5pts

DB Bryan Scott, Atlanta (vs Oakland): 3 solo = 3pts

Hit Rate: 6/12 (50%)

A brief note about the hit rates: To provide an objective standard to evaluate these selections, 5 fantasy points will be used as the cutoff for DL and 6 fantasy points will be used as the cutoff for LB and DBs. Thus, when a player is listed as a strong start, that means I think he has a good chance to top 5 or 6 points based on his matchup, and when I say a player is a weak start, I think he has a good chance to put up fewer than 5 or 6 points. I’ll continue to track my success throughout the season to try and provide you with the information you need to make your starting decisions.

Week 15 Selections

STRONG STARTS

DL Cornelius Griffin, Washington (@ San Francisco)

Griffin is having a great season and should get strong Pro Bowl consideration. The Redskins don’t have a lot of talent on the defensive line and have had to play most of the season without their star SLB LaVar Arrington, yet they remain one of the league’s best defenses and a lot of it starts with Griffin’s performance up front. He’s always been extremely quick and able to shoot gaps to put pressure on opposing QBs, but he’s also making a lot more plays in Gregg Williams system, which is the same system that helped Pat Williams lead all DTs I tackles for the past couple seasons. Griffin has already tied his career high for solo tackles (47) with 3 games left to play and he gets a great matchup this week against the 49ers. San Francisco has allowed more points to opposing DL (29.3/game) than any other team by far, including a league-high 36% of all IDP points. They give up an average of over 14 solo tackles and 3 sacks to DL each week, and it’s hard to imagine anyone else on the Redskins DL taking better advantage of this weakness than Griffin. He hasn’t been putting up great numbers the past few weeks, but he’s been consistent, and I expect him to notch at least 1 sack this week to go along with at least 4 solo tackles.

DL Adewale Ogunleye, Chicago (vs Houston)

Ogunleye had a 4-game sack streak end last week against the Jaguars, but he did come through with 4 solo tackles to soften the blow a bit for his owners. He hasn’t been as productive in Chicago as he was in Miami, but a lot of that could be attributed to not having Jason Taylor playing opposite him, and not having guys like Patrick Surtain playing CB. If you split his season up into 2 halves, he has 1 sack in his first 5 games and 4.5 sacks I his last 5 games, so it certainly appears as though he is getting more comfortable in Lovie Smith’s system. This week, he faces the Texans who rank #4 in fantasy points allowed to DL (23.3/game) and are giving up 2.3 sacks/game to DL. Last week, the Colts DL managed to sack David Carr 5 times.

DL Bert Berry, Arizona (vs St Louis)

On the surface, this doesn’t look like a great matchup for Berry as he could be matched up against Orlando Pace all day. However, Pace isn’t playing as well this year as he has in the past, and the rest of the Rams offensive line has been banged up all year. Berry was a big free agent signing for the Cards last year after finishing with 11.5 sacks for the Broncos last year, and he’s already topped that number with 12 sacks in 13 games (only gone sackless in 3 of those games). He’s on a 5-game sack streak, and the Rams are giving up an average of 2.4 sacks/game to opposing DL so he has a great chance to keep the streak alive. St. Louis will be starting Chris Chandler, who the Panthers DL sacked 3 times last week. On the season, the Rams rank #7 in fantasy points allowed to DL (22.6/game).

DL Tyler Brayton, Oakland (vs Tennessee)

This guy has disappeared after having a great start to the season. Most fantasy owners have probably relegated him to their bench by this point, but he’s showing some signs of life late in the season with 8 solo tackles over his past 2 games. This looks like a great matchup as the Titans have given up 10 sacks to opposing DL over the past 2 weeks and currently rank #5 on the season in fantasy points allowed to opposing DL (23.3/game).

LB Danny Clark, Oakland (vs Tennessee)

Clark has had a breakout season for the Raiders in Bob Ryan’s new defensive system. Only 4 other LBs have more solo tackles than Clark does, and he currently ranks #15 in fantasy points. He’s only had 4 games this year where he failed to crack the 6pt threshold, and the Titans offense has been giving up points freely to LBs, ranking #1 on the year with 27.2pts/game allowed.

LB Brian Simmons, Cincinnati (vs Buffalo)

Simmons has 22 solo tackles over the past 3 games, and now faces a Bills team that is allowing 16.2 solo tackles/week to opposing LBs and ranks #2 in fantasy points allowed to LBs (25.1/game). The Bills offense has been doing a great job running the ball and sustaining drives, which should lead to plenty of tackle opportunities for a player like Simmons, who has been playing much more aggressively this season than he had in the past.

LB DJ Williams, Denver (@ Kansas City)

At a time in the season when most rookies tend to hit a wall, Williams has been putting up his best numbers of the year with 16 solos and 5 assists over his past 2 games. He deserves consideration for defensive rookie of the year award and is looking like a very solid draft pick for the Broncos. This week, he’ll face a Chiefs offense that ranks #3 in fantasy points allowed to LBs (25/game) and gave up 46% of all IDP points to the Titans LBs last week. WLB Keith Bulluck finished with 11 points last week, and Williams should have a good shot at cracking double digit fantasy points as well.

LB Will Witherspoon, Carolina (@ Atlanta)

Witherspoon’s tackle numbers have predictably taken a bit of a hit in games when Dan Morgan plays, but he has 2 sacks, 4 INTs, and a FF in his last 6 games to more than make up for it. The Falcons rely heavily on the running game and a short passing game that should play right into Witherspoon’s hands. On the season, the Falcons rank #7 in fantasy points allowed to LBs (23/game), and are giving up more sacks to LBs (1.1/game) than any other team in the league. He’s got 8 straight quality starts in a row, and should be able to keep it rolling this week.

DB Erik Coleman, NY Jets (vs Seattle)

Coleman has filled in admirably for the Jets at SS this year. He’s the team’s 3^rd leading tackler, and his 3 INTs has him tied for the team lead with Terrell Buckley. He’s averaging over 6 fantasy points/game over the past 4 weeks despite a 0 solo tackle game against the Texans 2 weeks ago. This week, he’ll be facing the Seahawks who are giving up more points to opposing DBs (32.7/game) than any other team in the league, thanks primarily to some huge tackle numbers (21.7 solos/game). Despite having a healthy Shaun Alexander on the roster, Mike Holmgren loves to throw the football in all situations, and that is good news for guys like Coleman that get to face them.

DB Brian Dawkins, Philadelphia (vs Dallas)

Dawkins has seen his tackle numbers decline lately with just 7 solos over a recent 4 game stretch, but he’s made up for it with big plays. Over the season, he’s got 3 sacks and 4 INTs, and is currently on a 3-game INT streak. This week, he’ll get to face Vinny Testaverde and the Cowboys, who have been very generous to opposing DBs this year. On the season, Dallas ranks #3 in fantasy points allowed to DBs (31.9/game), including 1.5 INTs/game, which ranks #1 in the league by far. This seems like a matchup that should definitely favor Dawkins and give him a chance to extend that streak to 4 games.

DB John Lynch, Denver (@ Kansas City)

This is a surprising pick for me, as I don’t tend to think of Lynch as a very productive fantasy player. He’s one of those guys that are good football players and are important to helping a team win, but don’t tend to fill up the stat sheets too often. To back up that claim, one need only look at the Broncos team stats and see that he’s only the 6^th leading tackler, and also ranks behind 3 other members of the Broncos secondary. However, he enters this game playing extremely well: Over the past 3 games, he has 16 solo tackles, 2 sacks, 1 INT, 3 PD, and 2 FF (averaging 11pts/game). The Chiefs rank #6 on the season in fantasy points allowed to opposing DBs (30.9/game).

DB Terrence McGee, Buffalo (@ Cincinnati)

The Bills have been scoring so many points lately, that teams have been forced to throw on their tough pass defense through most of the 2^nd half. This has led to great numbers for McGee (and his secondary mate Nate Clements as well). Over the past 4 games, McGee has compiled 27 solos, 1 sack, 3 INTs, and 7 PDs, in addition to his amazing kickoff return numbers. The Bengals offense enters this game ranked #8 on the season in fantasy points allowed to DBs (30.6/game), with 45% of all IDP points going to DBs. Carson Palmer is not expected to start, but the Bengals are unlikely to change their game plan much with Jon Kitna under center. The emergence of Houshmanzadah as a receiving threat opposite Chad Johnson ensures that McGee will see some action even if Clements gets matched up with Chad Johnson for much of the game.

WEAK STARTS

DL Marques Douglas, Baltimore (@ Indianapolis)

Douglas has been having a very solid and productive season for the Ravens. He’s got 4.5 sacks in his last 5 games, but his tackle numbers have dropped off lately compared to early in the season (only 7 solos in past 4 weeks). This week, he faces a Colts team that is giving up fewer points to DL than any other team in the league (13.2/game). Manning has only been sacked by an opposing DL 4 times in 13 games, so Douglas is going to have a hard time continuing his hot play this week.

DL Justin Smith, Cincinnati (vs Buffalo)

Up until a month ago, Smith was looking like he had finally begun to reach his potential. However, as the team has gotten hot, his numbers have disappeared with just 2 solos, 6 asst, and .5 sacks in his last 3 games. This week, he faces a Bills team that has been playing much better on offense, thanks primarily to improved play on the offensive line. The effective running game with McGahee has kept opposing DL from being able to tee off on Bledsoe, and the sacks allowed have gone down considerably. On the season, the Bills rank #17 in fantasy points allowed to DL (18.8/game).

DL John Henderson, Jacksonville (@ Green Bay)

Henderson has been playing great lately (averaging 4 solos/game with 4 sacks over past 5 weeks), including an 8.5 point (5 solo, 1 asst, 1 sack) against the Bears last week. This week, however, he faces a Packers offense that ranks #29 in fantasy points allowed to opposing DL (15.1/game), and they only gave up 14 points total to a talented Lions DL last week. The Packers have one of the best DL in the league and they do a great job of neutralizing the DL they face each week.

DL Kenard Lang, Cleveland (vs San Diego)

Lang has been a quality start in 3 of the past 5 games and is quietly having a very solid season for the Browns. He’s got 7 sacks on the year and 3 in his past 4 games. However, the Chargers offense hasn’t been too friendly to DL this year, ranking #27 on the year in fantasy points allowed to DL (16.6/game). Last week, the talented Bucs DL only managed 10.5 fantasy points against them, so Lang should have his work cut out for him on Sunday.

LB Keith Brooking, Atlanta (vs Carolina)

Brooking has been one of the biggest IDP disappointments this year. He was an absolute tackling machine the past 3 years, averaging 113 solo tackles, but this year he’s on pace for just over 80. He’s been a quality start in 5 of the past 6 games, but the Panthers rank #31 on the season in fantasy points allowed to LBs (18.1/game) and only gave up 14.5 last week to the Rams LB group. Although Nick Goings has sparked the running game after the injuries to Stephen Davis and Deshaun Foster, it is still Jake Delhomme and the passing game that makes this offense work, and that should help neutralize Brooking in this game.

LB Dat Nguyen, Dallas (@ Philadelphia)

Nguyen has been putting up decent numbers lately with 4 straight quality starts, including a 9pt effort last week against the Saints. The Eagles offense runs very few plays between the tackles though, which makes it more difficult for a MLB to make plays. Nguyen certainly has enough speed to make plays from sideline to sideline, but he’ll have fewer plays than usual run right at him in this game. On the season, the Eagles rank #30 in fantasy points allowed to LBs (18.3/game), and #31 in total tackles by LBs (16.1/game).

LB Derek Smith, San Francisco (vs Washington)

Smith has been having a solid season on a dreadful team, but his numbers have dipped in the past month or so. He’s been a quality start in just 2 of his past 5 games, and now will face a Redskins team that ranks #24 on the season in fantasy points allowed to LBs (19.4/game). In last week’s game, Eagles LBs combined for just 16.5 fantasy points. MLB Jeremiah Trotter did manage 9 of the 16 solo tackles though, so this matchup may not be as bad for Smith as for the other LBs, so keep that in mind if Smith is your best option.

LB Akinola Ayodele, Jacksonville (@ Green Bay)

Ayodele’s stock has been up and down this year: During preseason, there were reports that the Jags would move him to DE to compensate for injuries at the position, but he began the year at WLB and put up 9 solo tackles against the Bills in week 1. He’s been in a bit of a slump lately though, with just 1 quality start in his last 5 games. The Packers running game this year hasn’t played nearly as well as last year’s version, and that has hurt opposing LBs. On the season, the Green Bay offense ranks #18 in fantasy points allowed to LBs (20.4/game).

DB Mike Minter, Carolina (@ Atlanta)

Minter has been a quality start for IDP owners in just 2 of the past 4 weeks, including a sorry 1pt outing against the Rams last week who are giving up the 4^th most points to DBs on the season. This week, he’ll face Michael Vick and the Falcons, who rank dead last in fantasy points allowed to DBs (21.5/game) by 3 full points a game and also dead last in percentage of IDP points allowed to DBs (33%). The Falcons just have not shown any ability or willingness to throw downfield, and that has led to very few points for the DBs. Minter could be a bit of an exception since he will likely play up in the box to try and slow down Vick and the running game, but it still looks like a shaky matchup and one likely worth avoiding if you have better options. In an earlier matchup with the Falcons this year, he only finished with 1 solo and 2 assists.

DB Roy Williams, Dallas (@ Philadelphia)

After a recent slump of 4 poor starts in a row, Williams has picked things up a bit with 10 solos, 5 asst, 1 INT, 1 PD, and 1 FF in the past 2 weeks. He’s still one of the best safeties in the league, but the Cowboys have been forced to use him a lot more in pass coverage than in run support, which is where he truly excels. This week, he’ll face the Eagles, who rank #31 in the league in fantasy points allowed to DBs (24.3/game). Last week against the Redskins, SS Ryan Clark only managed 2 solo tackles against the Eagles. Obviously, Williams is much, much better than Clark as a player, but the Eagles are a team that loves to pass and that just doesn’t fit well with Williams’ strengths.

DB Madieu Williams, Cincinnati (vs Buffalo)

Williams has been having a great rookie season, and looks like a great find for the Bengals. His tackle numbers seem to be down a bit over the past month though, and he’s been a quality start in just 2 of the past 4 weeks. This week, he’ll face a Bills team that ranks #24 on the year in fantasy points allowed to DBs (27.4/game). The Bills have opened up the offense a bit recently with the emergence of big play WR Lee Evans, so that could help Williams a bit, but overall this looks like it could be a down week for him unless the front 7 can generate some pressure on Bledsoe to force him into some bad throws.

DB Darren Sharper, Green Bay (vs Jacksonville)

This is an easy selection as Sharper has been a quality start in just 1 of his past 6 starts. To be fair, he’s apparently been playing injured in quite a few of those games, but that doesn’t seem to be working for his fantasy owners and it’s probably time to go with another option if you have one. The Jags rank #25 in fantasy points allowed to DBs (27.1/game). Leftwich has done a pretty good job of spreading the ball around and protecting the football this year, making it tough for Sharper to have a big impact.

If you have any questions about other players, feel free to post them on the FBG message boards or email me at: [email protected]