IDP Strong & Weak Plays
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Posted 12/23 by Aaron Rudnicki
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I'm implementing a change for the next few weeks, as most leagues have likely
entered the playoffs and waiver claims may not be available. I'm simply going
to list players that I think have very favorable matchups this week and players
that have difficult matchups. Unlike previous weeks, I'm not going to pay much
attention to where the player would normally rank, but I will only focus on
players that I consider "starter" quality. I also avoided discussing
players that I consider a must-start. Good luck for those of you still in the
playoffs.
Review of Last Week's Selections
STRONG STARTS
- DL Cornelius Griffin, Washington (@ San Francisco): 2 solo, 1 asst, .5 sacks
= 4 pts
- DL Adewale Ogunleye, Chicago (vs Houston): 2 solo = 2 pts
- DL Bert Berry, Arizona (vs St Louis): 1 asst, .5 sacks = 2 pts
- DL Tyler Brayton, Oakland (vs Tennessee): 1 solo = 1 pt
- LB Danny Clark, Oakland (vs Tennessee): 8 solo, 2 asst, 1 sack, 1 PD = 13
pts
- LB Brian Simmons, Cincinnati (vs Buffalo): 8 solo, 1 asst = 8.5 pts
- LB DJ Williams, Denver (@ Kansas City): 12 solo, 1 sack, 1 FF = 17 pts
- LB Will Witherspoon, Carolina (@ Atlanta): 4 solo = 4 pts
- DB Erik Coleman, NY Jets (vs Seattle): 7 solo, 1 sack = 10 pts
- DB Brian Dawkins, Philadelphia (vs Dallas): 1 solo, 2 asst = 2 pts
- DB John Lynch, Denver (@ Kansas City): 4 solo, 1 asst = 4.5 pts
- DB Terrence McGee, Buffalo (@ Cincinnati): 4 solo, 3 asst, 1 PD = 6.5 pts
Hit Rate: 5/12 (42%)
WEAK STARTS
- DL Marques Douglas, Baltimore (@ Indianapolis): 1 solo, 1 asst = 1.5 pts
- DL Justin Smith, Cincinnati (vs Buffalo): 1 asst = 1 pt
- DL John Henderson, Jacksonville (@ Green Bay): 5 solo, 2 asst = 6 pt
- DL Kenard Lang, Cleveland (vs San Diego): 2 solo, 1asst = 2.5 pts
- LB Keith Brooking, Atlanta (vs Carolina): 7 solo, 1 sack, 2 FF = 14 pts
- LB Dat Nguyen, Dallas (@ Philadelphia): 6 solo, 1 sack, 1 PD = 10 pts
- LB Derek Smith, San Francisco (vs Washington): 5 solo, 4 asst = 7 pts
- LB Akinola Ayodele, Jacksonville (@ Green Bay): 3 solo, 2 asst = 4 pts
- DB Mike Minter, Carolina (@ Atlanta): 7 solo = 7 pts
- DB Roy Williams, Dallas (@ Philadelphia): 5 solo, 1 INT, 3 PD = 12 pts
- DB Madieu Williams, Cincinnati (vs Buffalo): 3 solo = 3 pts
- DB Darren Sharper, Green Bay (vs Jacksonville): 6 solo, 1 asst, 1 FF, 1
FR, 1 TD = 16.5 pts
Hit Rate: 5/12 (42%)
A brief note about the hit rates: To provide an objective standard to evaluate
these selections, 5 fantasy points will be used as the cutoff for DL and 6 fantasy
points will be used as the cutoff for LB and DBs. Thus, when a player is listed
as a strong start, that means I think he has a good chance to top 5 or 6 points
based on his matchup, and when I say a player is a weak start, I think he has
a good chance to put up fewer than 5 or 6 points. I'll continue to track my
success throughout the season to try and provide you with the information you
need to make your starting decisions.
Week 16 Selections
STRONG STARTS
- DL Aaron Schobel, Buffalo (@ San Francisco): Schobel has 2.5 sacks and 2
FF in his last 3 games. 49ers rank #1 in fantasy points allowed to DL.
- DL James Hall, Detroit (vs Chicago): Hall has 6 sacks in his last 6 games.
Chicago ranks #2 in fantasy points allowed to DL on the season.
- DL Darren Howard, New Orleans (vs Atlanta): Howard has 10 solos and 3 sacks
in his last 3 games. Atlanta ranks #7 on the season in fantasy points allowed
to DL.
- LB DJ Williams, Denver (@ Tennessee): Williams has 28 solo tackles, 5 assists,
1 sack, 1 PD, and 1 FF in his last 3 games. This week he faces the Titans
who rank #1 in the league in fantasy points allowed to LBs.
- LB Danny Clark, Oakland (@ Kansas City): Clark has been a strong start in
4 of the past 5 weeks, including a 13-point outing last week against the Titans.
This week, he faces the Chiefs who rank #2 in the league in fantasy points
allowed to LBs.
- LB Derek Smith, San Francisco (vs Buffalo): Smith has been a quality start
in 3 of his last 4 games. Buffalo ranks #3 on the season in fantasy points
allowed to opposing LBs.
- DB Corey Chavous, Minnesota (vs Green Bay): Chavous has been a disappointment
this year, but he finally got his first INT of the season last week against
the Lions along with 7 solo tackles and 2 PDs. Green Bay has allowed more
fantasy points to DBs than any other offense in the league.
- DB Sheldon Brown, Philadelphia (@ St. Louis): Brown has 16 solo tackles,
1 sack, 2 INTs, and 6 PDs in the last 3 weeks. This week, he faces the Rams
who rank #2 in the league in fantasy points allowed to DBs.
- DB Sean Taylor, Washington (@ Dallas): Taylor has 4 INTs on the season,
including 1 last week against San Francisco. Dallas has thrown more INTs to
DBs than any other team in the league this year.
WEAK STARTS
- DL Alex Brown, Chicago (@ Detroit): Last week, Brown had his first quality
start in 5 weeks. Detroit ranks #28 in the league in fantasy points allowed
to DL.
- DL Cornelius Griffin, Washington (@ Dallas): Griffin has been playing well,
but has only reached the 5pt threshold once in his last 5 games. Dallas ranks
#25 on the year in fantasy points allowed to DL.
- DL Kenechi Udeze, Minnesota (vs Green Bay): Udeze has 2 quality starts in
his last 4 games, but Favre has been one of the league's least sacked QBs
this year. Green Bay ranks #30 on the year in fantasy points allowed to DL.
- LB Lance Briggs, Chicago (@ Detroit): Briggs has been very hot and cold
in the past 6 weeks. In 3 of those weeks, he's cracked double digit solo tackles,
and in the other he has failed to reach 6 fantasy points. Detroit ranks dead
last in the league in fantasy points allowed to LBs.
- LB Antonio Pierce, Washington (@ Dallas): Pierce had a monster game last
week thanks primarily to an INT returned for a TD, but had just 1 solo tackle
the week before. Dallas ranks #31 on the year in fantasy points allowed to
LBs.
- LB Shelton Quarles, Tampa Bay (vs Carolina): Quarles finished with just
2 solos and 2 assists last week against New Orleans. Carolina ranks #30 in
the league in fantasy points allowed to opposing LBs.
- DB Tebucky Jones, New Orleans (vs Atlanta): After a hot start, Jones has
cooled off lately with just 1 quality start in his last 5 games. Atlanta ranks
dead last in the league in fantasy points allowed to DBs.
- DB Greg Wesley, Kansas City (vs Oakland): Last week was Wesley's first game
back from injury and he finished with 7 solos and a FF. This week, however,
he faces an Oakland team that ranks #30 in the league in fantasy points allowed
to DBs.
- DB Adam Archuleta, St Louis (vs Philadelphia): Archuleta has just 1 quality
start in his last 4 games, including 1 game where he finished with 0 points.
Philadelphia ranks #31 in the league in fantasy points allowed to DBs and
could struggle on offense without Terrell Owens.
Note about this week's selections: Due to the short week and the holiday, I
haven't had time to write detailed justifications for my selections. As always,
if you have any questions about these or other players, feel free to post them
on the FBG message boards or e-mail me at: [email protected].
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