This will be a weekly feature at FBG this season for IDP owners out there who are having some troubles deciding who to start on Sundays. We're going to pick out several players normally ranked outside of the top-30 at each IDP grouping, who we think should have favorable matchups this week and might be worth starting. Additionally, we'll also highlight some top-30 players who might have trouble living up to their advanced billing this week that you may want to consider benching. We'll also provide our reasoning so you can think about it and decide for yourselves. As a bonus, we'll review our picks from the week before so you can see how accurate we have been and learn from our hits and misses.

Review of Week 2

STRONG STARTS

• Rudnicki
  DL Aaron Smith, Pittsburgh (vs Baltimore): 3 solo, 2 asst, 1 sack = 7pts
  DL Tyler Brayton, Oakland (vs Buffalo): 6 solo, 1 asst, 1.5 sacks = 11pts
  LB Lance Briggs, Chicago (@ Green Bay): 5 solo, 3 asst, 1 PD = 7.5pts
  LB Robert Thomas, St Louis (@ Atlanta): 2 solo, 4 asst = 4pts
  DB Jay Bellamy, New Orleans (vs San Francisco): 11 solo, 1 asst, 1 FF, 1 FR = 15.5pts
  DB Matt Bowen, Washington (@ NY Giants): 4 solo, 2 asst = 5pts

Hit Rate: 4/6 (67%)

• Magaw
  DL Chike Okeafor, Seattle (@ Tampa Bay): 1 solo, 1 asst = 1.5pts
  DL Bryce Fisher, St. Louis (@ Atlanta): 2 solo = 2pts
  LB Akin Ayodele, Jacksonville (Denver): 5 solo, 1 FR = 7pts
  LB Julian Peterson, San Francisco (@ New Orleans): 8 solo, 1 sack = 11pts
  DB Mike Minter, Carolina (@ Kansas City): 6 solo = 6pts
  DB Antoine Winfield, Minnesota (@ Philadelphia): 6 solo, 3 asst = 7.5pts

Hit Rate: 4/6 (67%)

WEAK STARTS

• Rudnicki
  DL Patrick Kerney, Atlanta (vs St Louis): 4 solo, 2 sacks, 1 PD = 11pts
  DL Grant Wistrom, Seattle (@ Tampa Bay): 6 solo, 1 asst, 2 sacks, 1 FF = 14.5pts
  LB Andra Davis, Cleveland (@ Dallas): 2 solo, 4 asst, 1 PD = 5pts
  LB Lavar Arrington, Washington (@ Giants): 6 solo, 1 asst, 1 PD = 7.5pts
  DB Sean Taylor, Washington (@ Giants): 2 solo = 2pts
  DB Ed Reed, Baltimore (vs Pittsburgh): 3 solo = 3pts

Hit Rate: 3/6 (50%)

• Magaw
  DL Kevin Williams, Minnesota (@ Philadelphia): 3 solo, 1 asst = 3.5pts
  DL Jason Taylor, Miami (@ Cincinnati): 4 solo, 2 asst, 1 sack, 1 INT, 1 PD = 13pts
  LB Chris Draft, Atlanta (vs St. Louis): 1 solo = 1pt
  LB Jay Foreman, Houston (@ Detroit): 6 solo, 1 asst = 6.5pts
  DB Terence Newman, Dallas (vs Cleveland): 1 solo, 1 asst, 1 INT, 1 PD = 6.5pts
  DB Ed Reed, Baltimore (vs Pittsburgh): 3 solo = 3pts

Hit Rate: 3/6 (50%)

A brief note about the hit rates: To provide an objective standard to evaluate our selections, we've decided to use 5 fantasy points as the cutoff for DL and 6 fantasy points as the cutoff for LB and DBs. DL tend to score lower than LB or DB so we decided to use a different cutoff for them (i.e., most owners would be pretty satisfied with 5pts from their DL but might expect 7pts from their LBs). Over the first 2 weeks of the season, the average starting DL has put up roughly 5 points and the average starting LB and DB have put up roughly 6 points. This means that when we say a player is a strong start, we think he has a good chance to top 5 or 6 points based on his matchup, and when we say a player is a weak start, we think he has a good chance to put up fewer than 5 or 6 points. We'll continue to evaluate our success throughout the season to try and provide you with the information you need to make your starting decisions.

Week 3 Selections

STRONG STARTS

Rudnicki's Picks

DL Tyler Brayton, Oakland (vs Tampa Bay)
Brayton is looking like he could be a star in this new Raiders defensive system. After 2 weeks, he's got 9 solos, 2 assists, 2.5 sacks, and 2 PD. At this point, he is probably a must start for anyone who owns him, but this is also a favorable matchup. He's unlikely to maintain those tackle numbers matched up against a weak running offense like Tampa, but he should get plenty of pressure on the Bucs QBs this week regardless of who is lining up under center. The Bucs have given up a league leading 5 sacks to opposing DL in the first 2 weeks of the season thanks to a rebuilt offensive line that looks old and slow.

DL Chike Okeafor, Seattle (vs San Francisco)
Okeafor struggled a bit against the Bucs last week, only finishing with 1 solo tackle and 0 sacks, but the Seahawks defensive line has been generating a lot of heat on QBs with 6 sacks in the first 2 weeks. Wistrom was a huge factor with 6 solo tackles and 2 sacks, breaking LT Derrick Deese's 35 game streak of not giving up a sack. As a result, expect the 49ers to focus a lot more attention on Wistrom this week and slide their protection over to his side of the field, thus providing Okeafor with more one-on-one matchups. He may have some extra incentive as he'll be facing his old team in front of what should be a very loud crowd in the Seahawks home opener. The 49ers are expected to give Ken Dorsey his second consecutive start, but have allowed the 2nd most points in the league to opposing DL thus far.

LB Scott Fujita, Kansas City (vs Houston)
The Texans have given up more points to opposing IDPs than any other team in the league, including 35 solo tackles in the first 2 weeks despite having faced two of the league's weaker offenses in San Diego and Detroit. Beisel has been racking up lots of tackles while getting run over in the middle, and may not be in the starting lineup for too much longer now that Kawika Mitchell is healthy again. The Chiefs offense would normally be able to sustain drives, control the clock, and keep the defense off the field, but with Priest Holmes hurting and the offense struggling, expect Fujita to see plenty of snaps against Domanick Davis and the Texans offense.

LB Lance Briggs, Chicago (@ Minnesota)
Briggs has had 2 quality starts in a row with 7.5pts in each, and faces a favorable matchup this week in Minnesota. With the Bears coming off a surprising win against the hated Packers in Lambeau, we can likely expect a bit of a letdown this week against Minnesota. Meanwhile, the Vikings will be looking to rebound from the disappointing loss to the Eagles on MNF in front of their home crowd. The Vikings are big favorites in the game and should spend most of the 2nd half trying to run out the clock and hold onto their lead, which should lead to plenty of tackle opportunities for Briggs. The Eagles showed last week how important it is to get pressure on Culpepper to disrupt the Vikings passing game, so we may see Briggs get a few blitz opportunities this week as well.

DB Terreal Bierria, Seattle (vs San Francisco)
The Seahawks defense has been playing great in their first two road games, thanks in part to the physical presence of Bierria in the secondary. He barely practiced last week due to a thigh injury yet still came out and played well against the Bucs. His injury has apparently healed and he has a solid matchup against the 49ers this week. The Seahawks passing offense hasn't really got untracked yet, but with Shaun Alexander hurting and the team playing at home this could be the week. Some early scores from the Seahawks offense will force the 49ers into catch-up mode and ensure plenty of pass attempts from Dorsey. If the 49ers try to run Barlow and keep the game close, then Bierria can still be a big factor in run support with the continued absence of OLB Chad Brown. Additionally, Bierria is expected to eventually give up his starting job to highly touted rookie Michael Boulware, so he's fighting for his job each and every week.

DB Jay Bellamy, New Orleans (@ St. Louis)
Bellamy is a very underrated fantasy performer because of the Saints desire to replace him with Mel Mitchell last season. He is putting up stud numbers so far this season with 19 solo tackles and 2 FF, and gets a favorable matchup against the pass-happy Rams attack this week (have given up 53% of all IDP points allowed to DBs). The Saints defensive line is starting to heat up and should be able to pressure Bulger into making some bad throws. Bellamy came through for me huge as a strong play last week so might as well ride the hot hand and see if he can keep it going.

Magaw's Picks

DL Will Smith, New Orleans (@ St Louis)
In his first start, prompted by Darren Howard's cervical disc bulge distress, Smith showed why he was felt by many scouts to be a comparable DE prospect to Kenechi Udeze... his impressive line in the box score included 5 solos, 1 sack and 1 FF. He has impressed the Saints coaching staff so thoroughly and earned their trust that he will get a large number of snaps regardless of Howard's status for Sunday's game (though New Orleans might be expected to be conservative given that he has a neck injury, and they have a more than adequate replacement). Smith has a very mature, complete, balanced game, and has the versatility to be dangerous pass rushing (Orlando Pace looked sluggish in protection against the Falcons, and Smith is a lot quicker and faster than grizzled vet Brady Smith), OR, if Rams HC Martz is possessed by an alien force that compels him to play smashmouth and pound the rock, he is good to go if that scenario unfolds as well.

DL James Hall, Detroit (vs. Philadelphia)
Hall has been playing like a man with his hair on fire... check out these numbers... 10 solos, 3.5 sacks and 2 FFs through two weeks, and he amassed his production in last weeks game with a broken finger and a cast. As you can see, Hall is not a one dimensional player, so that beauty of this call is that he should get his points whether the Eagles pass a lot, or, as I expect, get ahead early and pull away, leading to a lot of runs late to grind out the clock. Philadelphia LT Tra Thomas was beaten like a drum at times last season, and may have slipped a little from his former greatness.

LB Bradie James, Dallas (@ Washington)
To strip the clutter away and reduce the rationale for this choice to the most elemental and root level... the Redskins gave up 7 turnovers last week in an embarrassing game against the Giants. That is not Joe Gibbs football, and you have to think he will get that fixed. Mission One (Two and Three) will be to get the running game untracked. James reportedly has eclipsed longtime starter Dexter Coakley, which jibes with Parcells' well documented preference for big men (well conditioned ones can dominate in crunch time). The Cowboys were involved in a bizarre game last week in which the Browns gave up only 3 tackles to the LBs (by far the fewest in the league to an opponents LB group - props to Aaron for his incisive IDP positional stat breakdown), and I don't expect that to be repeated in week 3. Of the 3 tackles given up by the miser-like Cleveland, James had 2 of them... he is big, agile and active in run support (I almost double-dipped on Dat).

LB David Thornton, Indianapolis (vs. Green Bay)
Favre doesn't have the greatest record when backtested in domes... maybe they will run the ball a lot, as they do have one of the top three rushing/receiving dual threats in the NFL in Ahman Green. The Pack gave up 16 solo tackles to LBs last week, but that was a strange game in which Green Bay got down to the Bears early and had to throw more than they prefer, which is a more balanced attack with Green as the centerpiece, with occasional deep shots to Walker/Ferguson/Driver to keep the safeties honest, and therefore setting up the run. Despite speculation (based on correct inferences about how the totals put up by new players plugged in to old roles are often scheme driven and almost player-independent and decoupled from individual talent variables; this rationale sometimes founders on the fact that there are certain instances when the players in question and their relative talents are what drive a certain outcome) that safety/WLB conversion Cato June would be the man in 2004... David Thornton put up monster stats from there just last season, and Mike Peterson (now the Jags MLB in a different conversion) did in the three seasons before that... Thornton has clearly been the most impressive LB on the Colts so far this year. If he gets close to the opposing ball carrier, they are going down. He is exceptional at a neglected skill and ability for LBs... getting off blocks. It also helps that he sees the field more than the other Indy LBs, being an integral part of the teams nickel and dime packages and a focal point of Dungy's overall attack conception.

DB Jay Bellamy, New Orleans (@ St. Louis)
Ride the #1 safety in the NFL in the solo tackle column with 19, Eagles SS Michael Lewis is closest with 16 solos (19 would be good for second among all LINEBACKERS... Zach Thomas is pacing the league with 24 solos, Chiefs MLB Monty Beisel is next with 18). In the key IDP positional groups of DL/LB/DB, the Rams gave up 11, 10 & 17 solo tackles, respectively... a disproportionate nearly 50%. A seeming corollary of having your D-Line rush the passer aggressively on a high percentage of snaps, coupled with a sketchy LB trio (Courtney Watson looks like a good one, but SLB James Allen and WLB Derrick Rodgers probably wouldn't start for a lot of teams, or at least we could say those teams where they could start probably don't have a top notch LB trio of their own) should equal a lot of downfield tackles by the safeties, and SS Bellamy is ten times the tackler FS Tebucky Jones is. Another explanation for (opponent positional tackle analysis helps to "get inside the stats") the disproportionate amount of DB tackles "given up" by the Falcons is the Rams DBs were running for their lives as Vick effortlessly penetrated to the second level of their defense like a white-hot chain saw through a tub of cheese whiz. In this matchup, either a Martz feint with a blindside shift to a run-heavy mix in the game plan (score permitting), OR a lot of quick hitters in a short passing game (Bulger is one of the less accurate deep passers in the NFL, and not surprisingly isn't usually a point of emphasis) to keep their aerial point person from getting killed while Pace plays his way into shape (only a few weeks removed from about a nine month layoff... it is hard to just turn it on to game-level speed, tempo and intensity like a light switch)... EITHER of those unfolding scenarios should converge on a similar pathway... elite LB-like solos tackle numbers for Bellamy, as he extends his league lead in that ultra-important IDP stat category.

DB Mark Roman, Green Bay (@ Indianapolis)
SS Roman coupled with FS Darren Sharper looks like the best Packer tandem since Sharper's mentor Leroy Butler had his career abruptly ended due to a chronic neck condition (not the same kind of "chronic" condition that Ricky Williams has... we return you to regular programming). He is a big improvement over the ragged tackling tag team of Antuan Edwards and Marques Anderson. The Colts gave up 19 solo tackles to Titan DBs, as opposed to only 16 tackles from the DL and LB position groups COMBINED. Indy and HC Dungy appear to be making a concerted effort to reestablish an authoritative, dominant run game (Edgerrin James led the NFL his first two seasons in the league, and was leading early in the third before being felled by a knee injury). This trend coincides with the fact that Edge is now a few years removed from his ACL reconstruction, and is looking, if not exactly like his old, bad self, a close approximation (proprioception "rewiring" takes a couple years on average, depending on the individual, for the old nerve signal pathways to have time to reroute, so the brain and muscles can relearn how to communicate with each other like they used to). He has actually evolved into a steadier, more decisive power runner who takes what he can get, at the tradeoff cost of a few less explosive long runs than we got accustomed to and associated with his skill set pre-injury. Even this last point is in question as he flashed some nice burst to get to the sideline and take it to the house on a 30+ yard run... that run led to partial muscle tear in his leg, leaving his starting status in doubt. RB Dominic Rhodes is a more than competent replacement, a proven thousand yard rusher in his own right (the most by a rookie undrafted free agent in NFL history, Edge's third season when he got hurt)... he is also now two seasons removed from a knee injury of his own and also flashing burst and explosiveness. The Colts know if they can get their running game going, it will make their play action passing game virtually unstoppable... expect them to try, and Roman could be one of the chief beneficiaries.

WEAK STARTS

Rudnicki's Picks

DL Jevon Kearse, Philadelphia (@ Detroit)
Even though Madden put Kearse's picture on the side of the horse trailer as the game's MVP, his final stat line of 1 solo, 1 assist was less than impressive. He'll have a tough matchup again this week, as Joey Harrington is one of the least sacked QBs in the league. Even though the Lions are 2-0 and have had some offensive success thus far this season, they have yet to really get their ground game going which will mean fewer tackle opportunities for Kearse. Finally, not only does Kearse draw tons of attention from blockers, but the Eagles defensive system rotates in so many defensive linemen that it will be tough for him to match the kind of production he was able to put up in Tennessee when healthy.

DL Kevin Williams, Minnesota (vs Chicago)
Kevin Williams also played on MNF last week, but had a minimal impact with 3 solos and 1 assist. This week, he faces a hot Chicago team that could be ripe for a letdown after upsetting the Packers in Lambeau last week. Thanks to the big injuries suffered to Charles Tillman and Mike Brown, I expect the Vikings to get out to an early lead in this game and then spend most of the 2nd half simply running out the clock. That may force the Bears to abandon the running game, which has been very effective the past couple weeks, and move to the pass. He had a big rookie season, but now that he's moved back inside he doesn't look like he's going to continue to be as big of a pass rush presence anymore. The matchup against Olin Kreutz, one of the best couple centers in the league, also doesn't help his chances.

LB Al Wilson, Denver (vs San Diego)
What happened? We got a few e-mails this week asking exactly that question. Somehow, Al Wilson played an entire game last week and wound up with 0 tackles, and 0 fantasy points. That's very unusual for an NFL starting MLB, especially one as talented as Wilson. The Broncos defense had a dominating performance against Jacksonville as they allowed fewer than 200 total yards. The Chargers have been lucky to face a couple weak defenses in the first 2 weeks, but the Broncos will provide them a very tough matchup and should be able to keep Tomlinson in check. The loss of Trevor Pryce up front on the defensive line provides some reason for optimism that Wilson's stats will rebound, but the Broncos should control things with Quentin Griffin and their running game, keeping Wilson off the field.

LB Pisa Tinoisamoa, St. Louis (vs New Orleans)
In the first 2 weeks of the season, only 4 other teams have given up fewer fantasy points to opposing LBs than the Saints. Now, Deuce McAllister is expected to miss a few games so that should make things even tougher. Without Deuce, the running game will struggle as Aaron Stecker is not a legit feature RB in the league. This means fewer sustained drives and more passing plays, both of which are usually bad for opposing LBs. I expected Tino to miss last weeks' game due to an injury, but he ended up playing and had a great game with 8 solos, 1 assist, and 1 sack. He'll almost need a couple sacks in order to put up a decent total this week and that's hard for any LB to come up with.

DB Shaun Williams, NY Giants (vs Cleveland)
Pretty much every Giant defender had a big fantasy game last week thanks to the implosion suffered by the Redskins on offense. They obviously can't expect to get 4 sacks, 5 fumbles, and 4 INTs each week, and the Browns have been one of the toughest matchups for DBs so far this season. That is mainly because the Browns have showed a strong emphasis on the running game this year, plus Jeff Garcia takes few sacks and is very efficient with the football. Unless the Browns decide to open it up a bit or are able to break some more run plays into the defensive secondary, Williams will have trouble matching his 7 solo tackles of a week ago.

DB Ed Reed, Baltimore (@ Cincinnati)
Ed Reed continues to struggle to rack up tackles on a consistent basis, finishing with only 3 solos last week against the Steelers. Even when facing a rookie QB, Reed wasn't able to take advantage with a big play. This week against Cincinnati, he faces a team that struggled against the Dolphins last week and should struggle against the Ravens dominant defense as well. The problem isn't that Reed isn't a great player because he certainly is, the problem is that the guys around him are too good also and that makes it hard for any offense to stay on the field long enough for Reed to become an elite fantasy DB. The gameplan for the Bengals offense this week will likely remain relatively conservative, just as it was last week, meaning lots of punts and not many tackle opportunities for players not named Ray Lewis.

Magaw's Picks

DL Alex Brown, Chicago (@ Minnesota)
The weak calls this week will be more concise and synoptic (ie - I need a pop tart)... the opponent Vikings only gave up 10 solos to the Eagle D-Line Monday night, compared to a combined 44 between the LB and DB groups. Culpepper did give up 2 of his 4 sacks to the D-Line, but he is generally a hard dude to lasso (Brown is listed at 262, Culpepper at 264), and smallish DEs tend to bounce off him. New HC Lovie Smith demanded that his DEs and DTs lose weight to run his hybrid cover two adopted from the Bucs... speedy, undersized D-Linemen and LBs are almost a dictate of the cover two zone scheme. O-Gun should be rounding into game shape three weeks into the season, and Brown (only 4 solos and no sacks through two weeks) could be spelled by the '03 first rounder Michael Haynes in heavy rotation.

DL Marcellus Wiley, Dallas (@ Washington)
Like Brown above only has 4 solos and no sacks through two games. The Redskins did give up 4 sacks last week to the Giants, all to the D-Line, in the seven turnover laugher (Gibbs wasn't laughing). But for the same reason recommending the Washington matchup for Bradie James cited above, I don't like it for Wiley... expect to see a lot of rushes this MNF contest, as Gibbs takes charge and steers the game plan in a direction more in accord with his type of team... one in which they can control the flow and tempo of the game by establishing the run early and often. It is doubtful he wants to see many more 3 INT games the rest of the way out, so Wiley may not get a lot of sack opps, and he has increasingly looked done anyway, so therefore may be unable to capitalize on the few he gets.

LB Chris Draft, Atlanta (vs. Arizona)
Going to the well again... 1 solo average in first two weeks will do that... it is not like the Cardinals are expected to get in a position to assume a commanding lead and step on the collective neck of the Falcon defense, salting the end game away with a lot of runs... going against the supersonic Vick. One of these days, punking MLB Draft could catch up with me (unless the positional switch experiment with ex-MLB Brookings going to Drafts old position of WLB is aborted, in which case I'll be forced to start punking another top 30 LB)... don't think it will be this week, though.

LB Anthony Simmons, Seattle (vs. San Francisco)
He has 8 solos and no sacks through two games. The 49ers only gave up 9 solos to the Saints LBs while giving up 42 solos to the DL and DB groups in a losing effort. That is the problem, there could be a lot of losing efforts this season. With Barlow possibly injured and subject to uncertain availability this week, coupled with the fact that the Seahawks offense is probably at least as good if not better than the Saints unit that lit up the 49ers for 30 points last Sunday, San Francisco may be forced to throw even more than they would like to (if they weren't down by 2+ TDs in the first half already), which could diminish SLB Simmons numbers.

DB Brian Dawkins, Philadelphia (@ Detroit)
With the Eagle's breaking in TWO new starting CBs in Lito Sheppard and Sheldon Brown (who admittedly have looked very well prepared and game ready so far) to replace the departed Troy Vincent (BUF) and Bobby Taylor (SEA), and SS Michael Lewis being so active in run support, Dawkins may play the safety net role a lot this season, and be even more conservative than usual cast in a defense of last resort role. He may get the occasional sack this season like he used to in past years, but if the above read is accurate, he could be turned loose to attack much less frequently. This could change as soon as later this season if the noob CBs steadily give the coaching staff cause to trust them... but I expect this inexorable process of gaining trust to take more than two weeks.

DB Corey Chavous, Minnesota (vs. Chicago)
He could turn into a poster child for the inherently fluky nature of INT stats from season to season (unless your last name is Parrish, Sharper or Reed). His stats were pumped up more than a pre-steroid ban Jason Giambi by a huge number of picks last season... he was one behind league leader and teammate Brian Russell. It is early, but at the moment they have a combined zero INTs. Chavous is a cerebral player who is one of the consensus top students of the game in the NFL. He is averaging 4 solos a game, and if the league-of-his-own Randy Moss runs rampant in the secondary with last years small school CB revelation Charles "Peanut" Tillman possibly on the shelf and the Chi-towners get behind (as the formerly built for grass Bears did on occasion in the past on the fast track of the Vikings Metrodome), they may be forced to abandon their plans early to feed resurgent Thomas Jones the rock, which could spell less run support tackle opps for Chavous.