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IDP Strong & Weak Plays

This will be a weekly feature at FBG this season for IDP owners out there who are having some troubles deciding who to start on Sundays. We're going to pick out several players normally ranked outside of the top-30 at each IDP grouping, who we think should have favorable matchups this week and might be worth starting. Additionally, we'll also highlight some top-30 players who could have trouble living up to expectations this week that you may want to consider benching. We'll also provide our reasoning so you can think about it and decide for yourselves. As a bonus, we'll review our picks from the week before so you can see how accurate the picks have been and we can (hopefully) learn from our mistakes.

Review of Last Week's Selections:

STRONG STARTS

DL Carlos Hall, Tennessee (@ San Diego): 1 solo = 1pt
DL Ebenezer Ekuban, Cleveland (vs Washington): 1 solo, 1 asst = 1.5pts
LB Jonathan Vilma, New York Jets (@ Miami): 3 solos, 5 asst = 5.5pts
LB Shelton Quarles, Tampa Bay (vs Denver): 6 solos, 5 asst, 1 PD = 9.5pts
DB Troy Polamalu, Pittsburgh (vs Cincinnati): 4 solos, 2 asst, 1 INT, 2 PD = 11pts
DB Kelly Herndon, Denver (@ Tampa Bay): 2 solos = 2pts
Hit Rate: 2/6 (33%)

WEAK STARTS

DL Adewale Ogunleye, Chicago (vs Philadelphia): 3 solos, 1 asst = 3.5pts
DL John Abraham, NY Jets (@ Miami): 3 solos, 1 asst, 2 sacks, 1 FF, 1 FR, 1 PD = 14.5pts
LB Julian Peterson, San Francisco (vs St Louis): 4 solos, 1 asst = 4.5pts
LB Takeo Spikes, Buffalo (vs New England): 5 solos, 4 asst = 7pts
DB Sammy Knight, Miami (vs NY Jets): 3 solos, 1 asst = 3.5pts
DB Terrence Kiel, San Diego (vs Tennessee): 5 solos = 5pts
Hit Rate: 4/6 (67%)

A brief note about the hit rates: To provide an objective standard to evaluate these selections, 5 fantasy points will be used as the cutoff for DL and 6 fantasy points will be used as the cutoff for LB and DBs. Thus, when a player is listed as a strong start, we think he has a good chance to top 5 or 6 points based on his matchup, and when we say a player is a weak start, we think he has a good chance to put up fewer than 5 or 6 points. We'll continue to evaluate our success throughout the season to try and provide you with the information you need to make your starting decisions.

Week 5 Selections

STRONG STARTS

DL Aaron Kampman, Green Bay (vs Tennessee)
Kampman had a huge game last week in a losing effort against the Giants (8 solos, 3 asst, 1 sack) and has a favorable matchup against the Titans this week. Tennessee ranks 5th in most fantasy points allowed to DL. McNair is expected to play, but he's not 100% so he may not be as mobile in the pocket, and the team may look to lean more heavily on Chris Brown and the running game. Kampman gets plenty of favorable matchups playing opposite the speedy KGB, who finally showed up with 1.5 sacks last week.

DL Jason Ferguson, NY Jets (vs Buffalo)
Ferguson is one of the more productive fantasy DTs and he's coming off a strong showing last week against the Dolphins (3 solos, 1 asst, 1 sack, 1 FF). He gets a great matchup this week against the Bills, who are a dream matchup for fantasy DL thanks to Bledsoe's tendency for taking sacks and fumbling the ball and the strength of the Bills running game. The Bills are allowing an average of 24 fantasy points/week to opposing DL, which ranks them #2 behind the 49ers. Look for Ferguson to have another solid performance this week, especially with Bills C Trey Teague missing the game due to injury.

DL Kelly Gregg, Baltimore (@ Washington)
Gregg is undersized for a NT, but he has been remarkably productive in the Ravens defensive system and can rack up a lot of tackles. He missed a couple games with a knee injury this season, but got the start on MNF against Priest Holmes and the Chiefs and wound up with 6 solo tackles. He should do well against the Redskins, who rank #3 in points allowed to opposing DL thanks to a solid offense that can sustain drives with the running of Clinton Portis and efficient play of Mark Brunell.

DL Darnell Dockett, Arizona (@ San Francisco)
Dockett is a force who is already drawing double teams in just his first month in the league. Against the Falcons in week 3, he lit up the stat sheet with 8 solo tackles and a FF. Unfortunately, that performance got him a lot of attention from the Saints offensive line, who were able to shut him out last week in a rare blowout victory for the Cardinals. This week, Dockett gets a matchup against the 49ers, who are giving up an obscene 28 fantasy points/week to opposing DL. The 49ers will again be without normal starting C Jeremy Newberry, so Dockett should get some favorable matchups.

LB Na'il Diggs, Green Bay (vs Tennessee)
Diggs is a quality WLB who has had quality starts in 2 of his past 3 games, including a monster game against Tiki Barber and the Giants last week (11 solos, 4 asst). Tennessee is giving up the 2nd most fantasy points/game to opposing LBs, including nearly 20 solo tackles. The Titans have struggled to establish the deep passing game that was a huge part of their offense last year, and instead rely heavily on the running game and short and intermediate routes.

LB Larry Foote, Pittsburgh (vs Cleveland)
On the surface, this doesn't look like a great matchup for Foote as the Browns rank #28 in fantasy points/game allowed to opposing LBs. But, he is coming off one of the biggest fantasy weeks of the season by any IDP (9 solos, 2 asst, 1 sack, 1 FF, 1 PD). He's been starting at ILB for the Steelers ever since Kendrell Bell aggravated his shoulder injury in preseason, and is tied for the team lead in tackles. He's a former 4th round pick out of Michigan who is finally comfortable in his 3rd NFL season. The return of Lee Suggs to the Browns offense should help the running game, take some pressure off Garcia and the passing game, and result in a few longer drives.

LB DJ Williams, Denver (vs Carolina)
DJ Williams faced the Bucs last week and wound up with 7 solo tackles. This week, he's matched up against the Panthers, who rank #11 in terms of fantasy points allowed to LBs each week. Deshaun Foster has done a great job filling in for an injured Stephen Davis, who is expected to return this week. With a 2-headed monster at RB, look for the Panthers to pound the ball at the Broncos and provide Williams with plenty of tackle opportunities.

DB Dunta Robinson, Houston (vs Minnesota)
As most experienced IDP owners know, rookie CBs tend to be pretty productive fantasy players because they are often targeted by opposing QBs until they prove themselves. Robinson has had 2 quality starts in a row, including a breakout game against the Raiders last week (3 solo, 3 asst, 2 INT, 2 PD). He's a ferocious tackler and should continue to get plenty of attention playing opposite Aaron Glenn. The Vikings are expected to start rookie Mewelde Moore at RB, so this could be an air show for Culpepper and the Vikings WRs, which should mean solid numbers for Robinson again.

DB Gibril Wilson, NY Giants (@ Dallas)
When the Giants took Wilson in the 5th round of the draft back in April, they probably didn't expect him to be making this big of a contribution so early. But, when starting SS Shaun Williams went down with an injury and was placed on IR, Wilson was forced into the lineup and he has played very well. He's had 3 quality starts in a row now, including 2 games with 7 or more solo tackles, and 2 INTs. Look for Wilson to continue his hot streak this week against the Cowboys, who have not been able to get their running game going and are allowing a league high 53% of opposing IDP points to DBs.

DB Gary Baxter, Baltimore (@ Washington)
Gary Baxter has had 3 quality starts in a row, including a surprising 18 solo tackles over the last 2 weeks. Playing opposite shutdown CB Chris McAlister, Baxter tends to get plenty of balls thrown to his side of the field. As a former safety, he's a solid tackler who can also match up well against bigger WRs and contribute in stopping the run. The Ravens have also used him in several blitz packages this year, as he was able to get a sack in each of the first 2 weeks. Washington has been giving up quite a few points to opposing DBs (ranked #8 in points/game allowed), and Baxter should continue his string of quality starts.

DB Nick Harper, Indianapolis (vs Oakland)
Although he was rumored to be in danger of losing his starting job for the Colts, he's been one of their most valuable players thus far. He does get burned on occasion, but he's the closest thing they have to a playmaker in the secondary now that safeties Doss and Sanders are recovering from injuries. Harper has had a quality start in all 4 games thus far and should be able to keep it going against the Raiders who rank #4 in fantasy points/game allowed to DBs.

WEAK STARTS

DL Dwight Freeney, Indianapolis (vs Oakland)
Whereas Nick Harper has been producing in every game, Freeney has been struggling to make an impact up front. He's only got 2 solo tackles to show for his last 2 games and fantasy owners everywhere are probably starting to worry. The problem for Freeney is that he is the focal point for opposing offenses, and faces a double team on nearly every play. He's never been a great run defender, so he relies very heavily on sacks in order to be a productive fantasy starter. This doesn't look like a great chance for a turnaround as the Raiders are allowing an NFL-low 11.2 points/week to DL, and only 16% of all IDP points they allow are going to opposing DL. Robert Gallery and others have really improved the play of the offensive line, and the emphasis on the deep passing game has made it tough for DL to be productive against them. The injury to starting RB Tyrone Wheatley probably won't help out much either.

DL Patrick Kerney, Atlanta (vs Detroit)
I've been burned by Kerney before when I thought he had a tough matchup. He's been one of the most productive fantasy DL so far this season and has an unbelievable 7 sacks in his last 3 games. The streak has to end sometime though, right? This could be the week as the Lions will be without the services of RB Kevin Jones, and Joey Harrington is one of the least sacked QBs in the league. Probably not a smart idea to bench Kerney, but I'm going out on a limb and saying he'll struggle to keep up his record pace this week.

DL Mike Rucker, Carolina (@ Denver)
Well, I'm sure not making things easy on myself by picking 1 of the best fantasy DL in the game to have a bad game this week. But, Rucker hasn't quite lived up to the high expectations we all have for him so far this year. He's had 2 decent starts and 1 poor start and has yet to get a sack. Furthermore, the matchup against the Broncos in mile high doesn't really look all that enticing as the Broncos rank #26 in fantasy points/game given up to opposing DL. The struggles by Quentin Griffin and the Broncos running game make it tough for DL to get consistent tackle numbers against them, and the Broncos still have one of the better offensive lines in the league.

DL Aaron Schobel, Buffalo (@ NY Jets)
Schobel was thought by many to be on the verge of having a top-10 season among fantasy DL, but he's gotten off to a very slow start with only 5 solo tackles and 0 sacks in his first 3 games. The Bills appeared to make a wise decision locking him up to a long-term contract extension just before the season started, but that may have taken away some of his incentive. He's still a high energy player, but as the Bills best pass rusher he faces a pretty high % of double teams. He should eventually turn it around, just as he did last year, but the matchup against the Jets doesn't look all that great. Although Curtis Martin looks reborn this year, the Jets are rank in the bottom third in terms of fantasy points allowed to opposing DL.

LB Anthony Simmons, Seattle (vs St Louis)
The Seahawks defense has been dominant, but Simmons hasn't been producing the same type of stats many owners have grown accustomed to over the past few years. He's had 2 poor starts out of his first 3 games and now gets to face the Rams who are giving up the 2nd fewest fantasy points/game to opposing LBs. Despite the presence of Marshall Faulk and rookie sensation Stephen Jackson, the Rams just refuse to commit to the running game, making it hard for LBs to get enough tackle opportunities. The Rams offense relies on protecting the QB, and attacking the edges, which should make it a touch matchup for Simmons.

LB Andra Davis, Cleveland (@ Pittsburgh)
Davis had a huge season last year while playing on a bad team, and many expected more of the same in 2004. But, the Browns have surprised a lot of people with how competitive they've been this year. Davis has been decent over the first few weeks, but he hasn't really had any big games just yet. The Steelers rank #24 in terms of fantasy points/game allowed to opposing LBs, including a very low average of just 11 solo tackles/game.

LB Akin Ayodele, Jacksonville (@ San Diego)
Ayodele got off to a great start and was a big reason for the Jaguars early success, but he's had 2 poor starts in a row and finished with only 5 solo tackles last week against the Colts. This week, he faces Tomlinson and the Chargers, who rank #25 in fantasy points/game given up to LBs. The Chargers offense has been surprisingly effective, but they'll have their work cut out for them against the Jags.

LB Derrick Brooks, Tampa Bay (@ New Orleans)
Despite the Bucs struggles, Brooks is playing well and producing with an average of 10 points/game over the past 3 weeks. Even with Deuce, the Saints offense hasn't been a great matchup for LBs (22nd). Now, without Deuce in the lineup, Brooks will likely be used more in coverage this week than normal, where he excels. Perhaps that means a better chance for another INT, but Aaron Brooks doesn't throw very many with only 9 in his last 20 games.

DB Mike Minter, Carolina (@ Denver)
Minter had a great season last year and was ranked by many this preseason as a top-10 DB. He looked solid in his first 2 games with 14 solo tackles, but he made no impact last week with just 1 solo and 2 assists. He joins Rucker in my list of weak starts as the Broncos offense has not given up very many points to opposing DBs and rank #27 in that category, with no INTs yet. The return of Stephen Davis and the presence of two strong defenses suggests that this will be a conservative, low scoring defensive struggle.

DB Terrence Kiel, San Diego (vs Jacksonville)
Kiel got off to a blazing start against the Texans in week 1, convincing many that his time had arrived as a fantasy stud. But, he's now had 3 poor starts in a row and faces a tough matchup against the Jaguars, who rank #26 in points allowed to opposing DBs. Kiel is listed as probable on the NFL injury report this week with a shoulder injury, but is expected to get the start. The Jags passing game got going last week against the Colts, but the Chargers have a better secondary so look for Fred Taylor and the running game to be the primary focus.

DB Darren Sharper, Green Bay (vs Tennessee)
This is another risky selection as Sharper has had 3 strong starts in a row, but the Titans rank #25 in fantasy points allowed to DBs. As mentioned earlier, the Titans have had trouble establishing the deep passing game and McNair is not 100% so I expect them to rely heavily on the running game and the legs of Chris Brown, which means fewer chances for Sharper to get involved.

DB Bryan Scott, Atlanta (vs Detroit)
Scott has had 3 strong starts in his first 4 games, and had a season-high 7 solo tackles last week along with an INT, a FF, and a PD. He looks like yet another promising 2nd year DB, with the potential to be the best fantasy player out of them all. But, the Lions are a tough matchup and rank #29 in fantasy points/game allowed to DBs. Harrington gets rid of the ball quickly and primarily throws short passes and dumpoffs. If the Falcons can get out to an early lead, that may force the Lions to open things up a bit, but the Falcons offense has been struggling somewhat lately and a close game usually isn't good for a fantasy DB.

Good luck this week!

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