IDP Strong and Weak Plays – Week 6

 

This will be a weekly feature at FBG this season for IDP owners out there who are having some troubles deciding who to start on Sundays. I’m going to pick out several players normally ranked outside of the top-30 at each IDP grouping, who I think should have favorable matchups this week and might be worth starting. Additionally, I’ll also highlight some top-30 players who could have trouble living up to expectations this week that you may want to consider benching. I’ll also provide my reasoning so you can think about it and decide for yourselves. As a bonus, I’ll also review my picks from the week before so you can see how accurate they have been and we can (hopefully) learn from my mistakes. I’ll also rely heavily on the IDP stats we are providing at FBG this year, especially the fantasy points/game and % of points allowed to each position grouping.

 

Review of Last Week’s Selections:

 

STRONG STARTS

 

DL Aaron Kampman, Green Bay (vs Tennessee): 5 solo, 2 asst = 6pts

DL Jason Ferguson, NY Jets (vs Buffalo): 2 solo = 2pts

DL Kelly Gregg, Baltimore (@ Washington): 3 solo = 3pts

DL Darnell Dockett, Arizona (@ San Francisco): 2 solo, 1 sack = 5pts

LB Na’il Diggs, Green Bay (vs Tennessee): 7 solo, 5 asst = 9.5pts

LB Larry Foote, Pittsburgh (vs Cleveland): 2 solo = 2pts

LB DJ Williams, Denver (vs Carolina): 7 solo, 2 asst = 8pts

DB Dunta Robinson, Houston (vs Minnesota): 1 solo, 3 asst, 4 PD = 6.5pts

DB Gibril Wilson, NY Giants (@ Dallas): 5 solo, 1 sack = 8pts

DB Gary Baxter, Baltimore (@ Washington): 3 solo, 1 asst = 3.5pts

DB Nick Harper, Indianapolis (vs Oakland): 2 solo, 2 asst, 1 INT, 2 PD = 9pts

Hit Rate: 7/11 (64%)

 

WEAK STARTS

 

DL Dwight Freeney, Indianapolis (vs Oakland): 1 PD = 1pt

DL Patrick Kerney, Atlanta (vs Detroit): 2 solo = 2pts

DL Mike Rucker, Carolina (@ Denver): 0pts

DL Aaron Schobel, Buffalo (@ NY Jets): 4 solo, 1 asst, 1 sack, 1 FF, 1 PD = 10.5pts

LB Anthony Simmons, Seattle (vs St Louis): 3 solo, 3 asst = 4.5pts

LB Andra Davis, Cleveland (@ Pittsburgh): 7 solo = 7pts

LB Akin Ayodele, Jacksonville (@ San Diego): 8 solo, 1 asst = 8.5pts

LB Derrick Brooks, Tampa Bay (@ New Orleans): 6 solo, 2 asst = 7pts

DB Mike Minter, Carolina (@ Denver): 4 solo, 4 asst = 6pts

DB Terrence Kiel, San Diego (vs Jacksonville): 5 solo, 3 asst = 6.5pts

DB Darren Sharper, Green Bay (vs Tennessee): 5 solo, 1 asst = 5.5pts

DB Bryan Scott, Atlanta (vs Detroit): 4 solo, 3 asst = 5.5pts

Hit Rate: 6/12 (50%)

 

A brief note about the hit rates: To provide an objective standard to evaluate these selections, 5 fantasy points will be used as the cutoff for DL and 6 fantasy points will be used as the cutoff for LB and DBs. Thus, when a player is listed as a strong start, we think he has a good chance to top 5 or 6 points based on his matchup, and when we say a player is a weak start, we think he has a good chance to put up fewer than 5 or 6 points. We’ll continue to evaluate our success throughout the season to try and provide you with the information you need to make your starting decisions.

 

 

Week 6 Selections

 

STRONG STARTS

 

DL Robaire Smith, Houston (@ Tennessee)

Smith was one of two big free agent signings the Texans made this offseason, and he is paying immediate dividends. After 5 weeks, he leads all Texans DL in tackles (15) and sacks (1). He had his best game last week against the Vikings (5 solos, 2 asst, 1 sack), who rank near the league average for points allowed to DL, and now gets to face the Titans who rank #2. Smith played DT for the Titans last year, but lines up at RDE for the Texans in their 3-4 defensive system. Even though DE in a 3-4 rarely put up great stats, Smith has a few things in his favor: (a) he plays on the weakside, so he rarely has to deal with a TE; (b) the OLB on the Texans are both getting a lot of pressure on opposing QBs so they should take plenty of attention away from Smith. He put up good numbers against Bryant McKinnie last week so the matchup against Brad Hopkins shouldn’t be anything to worry about. If the Titans offense continues to look like it did against the Packers last week, Smith should see plenty of snaps.

DL Jamal Williams, San Diego (@ Atlanta)

Jamal Williams has been playing NT for the Chargers in their new 3-4 defense, and has been surprisingly effective at getting to the QB with 3 sacks in his last 3 games, which is more than he’s had in any prior season. Last week against Jacksonville, he sacked Leftwich twice and added 2 solo tackles and 1 PD for a 9pt outing. His matchup this week looks favorable as the Falcons rank #3 in the league in points allowed to opposing DL, and Vick leads the league in fumbles. Tomlinson has missed practice this week, the Falcons defense has been playing well, and Vick has been struggling so expect the Falcons to try and establish the run with Warrick Dunn and TJ Duckett.

DL Bobby Hamilton, Oakland (vs Denver)

Tyler Brayton was one of my favorite picks for this section earlier this season, but his strong play has earned him a place in the top-30 so he’s no longer eligible. Taking his place from the Oakland defensive line is Bobby Hamilton. Hamilton was a key player in the defensive line rotation for the Patriots last year, and he could be ready to emerge as a contributor again under defensive coordinator Bob Ryan, who was the LB coach in New England last year. Hamilton put up 6 solo tackles and 1 asst last week against the Colts, and has a chance to put up similar numbers this week against Denver. OLB Travian Smith missed practice and is listed as doubtful on the injury report so the Raiders may be forced to use more 4-3 fronts than normal.

DL Vince Wilfork, New England (vs Seattle)

The rich continue to get richer. Wilfork was a highly regarded DT who somehow slipped to the Patriots in the 1^st round of the draft, and he showed up with a big game against the Dolphins last week (5 solo, 2 asst, 1 sack, 1 PD). This week, he faces the Seahawks who are giving up the 2^nd most solo tackles (12.2/game) to DL thanks to their strong running game led by Shaun Alexander. Wilfork should definitely benefit from being surrounded by so many talented players on the Patriots defense, especially Richard Seymour who commands most of the attention from opposing offensive lines.

LB Antonio Pierce, Washington (@ Chicago)

Antonio Pierce was a surprise week 1 starter when Michael Barrow couldn’t go, but he’s been one of the most consistent fantasy LBs ever since. He’s finished with at least 8 fantasy points in 4 of his first 5 starts, including a huge game against the Ravens last week with 8 solos, 1 asst, and 1 sack. He’s the Redskins leading tackler and has been one of the few bright spots in a dismal 1-4 start to the season. The Bears rank #8 in points allowed to opposing LBs, and with the injury to Rex Grossman, they will rely very heavily on Thomas Jones and the running game.

LB Danny Clark, Oakland (vs Denver)

Clark is the leading tackler for the Raiders and has 6 or more solo tackles in 3 of his past 4 games. He finished with 7 solos, 1 assist, and 1 PD in a blowout loss to the Colts last week. This week, he faces the Broncos, who rank # 7 in fantasy points allowed to LBs, and are giving up a league-high 38% of total IDP points to LBs. The return of Napoleon Harris hasn’t really had an impact on Clark’s numbers, and Clark has played well enough that the Raiders will likely move Harris to OLB when they play a 4-3 front.

LB DJ Williams, Denver (@ Oakland)

DJ Williams has been playing great for the Broncos, and is their leading tackler after 5 games. He has 3 quality starts so far, including 2 games in a row with 7 solo tackles. This week, he faces the Raiders who are giving up more fantasy points to LBs (27.2/game) than any other team in the league. This guy is a star in the making and will eventually become a must start for most fantasy owners.

LB Jeff Ulbrich, San Fran (@ NY Jets)

What was once the strength of this 49ers defense has been decimated by injuries. Julian Peterson is out for the season, and Derek Smith is out until the end of the month with an ankle injury. Ulbrich is filling in for Smith at MLB, and had a huge game against the Cardinals last week with 9 solos, 1 asst, and .5 sack. He missed practice with a stomach ailment this week but is expected to be ready to play on Sunday against the Jets, who rank #9 in points/game allowed to LBs.

DB Chris Cash, Detroit (vs Green Bay)

Cash had a big rookie season in 2002 for the Lions with 79 solo tackles, but he missed last year due to a knee injury. This year, he looks like he’s picking up right where he left off with 12 solo tackles in his last 2 games and 7 last week against the Falcons. He faces the Packers this week, who are giving up more points (37.9) and a higher % (53) to opposing DBs each week than any other team in the league. Favre and the Packers have historically struggled playing at Detroit, so I expect Cash to have another strong outing.

DB Dwight Smith, Tampa (vs St. Louis)

Despite the 1-4 start for the Bucs, the defense has been playing well and doing a good job of keeping the scores down. Dwight Smith has been putting up consistent numbers with quality starts in 4 of his first 5 games, including 5 solos, 2 asst, and 1 FF last week against the Saints. This week, he faces a Rams team that continues to rely heavily on the passing game and currently ranks #4 in points allowed to opposing DBs. If the defensive line can stop the run early, Smith should see plenty of action in the secondary.

DB Lamont Thompson, Tennessee (vs Houston)

This will seem like an obvious choice after the huge game he had against the Packers on MNF last week (6 solo, 1 asst, 2 INT, 1 FF, and 2 PD). He’s been contributing for awhile as a nickel back for the Titans, but is finally getting his chance to start now that Schulters is out for a couple months with an injury. Thompson isn’t known as a big hitter, but he excels in coverage and should help out the Texans CBs with double coverage on Andre Johnson, who the Vikings simply could not stop last week. Houston ranks #9 in points allowed to DBs and that number could continue to rise as David Carr gets more and more confidence and guys like Derrick Armstrong continue to make plays.

DB Anthony Henry, Cleveland (vs Cincinnati)

Henry has played in 4 games this year and has finished with 7.5 points or more in all of them. He emerged as a great playmaker for the Browns as their nickel back a few years ago with 9 INTs, but this year he’s also putting up solid tackle numbers with 22 solos in 4 games. He faces the Bengals this week, who rank #3 in points allowed to DBs, thanks primarily to the struggles of Carson Palmer who currently is tied for the league lead in INTs with 7. If Henry gets matched up against Chad Johnson in man coverage, you can expect a pretty big day (for both of them).

DB Jerametrius Butler, St. Louis (vs Tampa Bay)

Butler has put up more than 6 points in 4 out of 5 games so far this year and gets a solid matchup against Brian Griese and the Bucs this week. Griese looked great last week, but it will be interesting to see how he does now that the Rams have had a week to prepare. With an offense as potent as the Rams, the Bucs will almost certainly have to go to the air if they want to stay in this game, and if Griese returns to his turnover-prone ways that he showed in Miami last year, this could be a huge day for Butler and the Rams secondary.

 

WEAK STARTS

 

DL James Hall, Detroit (vs Green Bay)

James Hall is having a heck of a season, including 8 or more points in 3 of the first 4 games this year. But, he gets a tough matchup this week as the Packers rank dead last in fantasy points allowed to opposing DL (11.8), which is nearly 3 points fewer than the 2^nd worst team in Carolina allows. That statistic is a bit surprising, when you consider that the Packers are having similar struggles to some other teams that are giving up a ton of points to opposing DL. Hard to take a hot player like Hall out of your lineup, but his stats from last week are a good sign of just how risky he can be (1 solo, 1 sack, 1 FF, 1 FR). The lack of tackle numbers are worrisome for a guy scoring as many points as he has been, as it will be tough for anybody to keep up that pace of big plays for long.

DL Jevon Kearse, Philadelphia (vs Carolina)

4 games into the 2004 season, Kearse has had 1 great game, 1 mediocre game, and 2 poor games. Coming off the bye week, he faces the Panthers who are giving up the 2^nd fewest points/game to opposing DL. The return of Stephen Davis could offset the loss of Deshaun Foster, but its not clear how effective he’ll be in his first game back and Kearse isn’t much of a run defender anyway. Despite having a rebuilt offensive line, Jake Delhomme has only taken 6 sacks in 4 weeks so Kearse will have his work cut out for him if he’s going to make an impact in this game.

DL Kenard Lang, Cleveland (vs Cincinnati)

After a huge 3-sack, 14.5 point game in the season opener against Baltimore, Lang hasn’t been very productive with only 14 points in the last 4 weeks. The Bengals rank #29 in fantasy points allowed to opposing DL, so this may not be the best week for him to get back on track. Palmer has been sacked 10 times in 4 games, but most of those have gone to blitzing LBs or DBs.

DL Mike Rucker, Carolina (@ Philadelphia)

Rucker has been one of the most disappointing fantasy IDPs thus far this year. He was pretty much a consensus top-3 choice at DL, yet is sitting with 0 sacks after his first 4 games. He does have a couple quality starts in those first 4 games, but he scored 1 point and a big fat zero (last week against Denver) in the other 2 games. The Eagles rank #28 in fantasy points allowed to opposing DL as McNabb is running the offense about as well as possible and not taking many sacks. Their leading rusher Brian Westbrook is only averaging about 16 rush attempts/game as well, so that doesn’t provide for very many tackle opportunities. Rucker will have a tough time getting untracked this week, but he’s too good and talented to not to turn it around at some point. Jason Taylor had a very similar start to his 2003 season, but finished strong, so Rucker owners should be patient.

LB Shawn Barber, Kansas City (@ Jacksonville)

Barber had a great season for fantasy owners in 2003, and got off to a good start in 2004 with 13 fantasy points in week 1, but he’s slowed down considerably in the past 3 weeks. The Chiefs have slowly begun to fix the defensive problems that have plagued them recently, and that has led to fewer tackle opportunities for Barber, who is not a very good tackler to begin with. He only has 6 solo tackles in his past 2 games, and could have a difficult time improving on those numbers this week against Jacksonville, who have been struggling on offense this year.

LB Derrick Brooks, Tampa Bay (@ St. Louis)

Brooks isn’t quite back to stud LB status yet, but he has had 5 quality starts in a row with 6+ solo tackles in each game. It’s risky to place him in this category, but the Rams are ranked #31 in fantasy points given up to opposing LBs (14.5/game) and every player has an off game sometime so this could very well be that week for Brooks. If the Rams continue to attack with the passing game instead of the run, Brooks could see a majority of time dropping into coverage.

LB Eric Barton, NY Jets (vs San Francisco)

Barton was signed to upgrade the speed and athleticism of the Jets defense, but he has yet to make a big impact. 4 games into the season, he has 2 quality starts, but has finished with only 2 solo tackles in each of the past 2 games. Up until the last 5 minutes against the Cardinals last week, the 49ers have had a difficult time moving the ball this season and rank #30 in fantasy points allowed to opposing LBs including an NFL-low 20% of all IDP points allowed to the LB position. For whatever reason, LBs don’t seem to get very involved when playing against the 49ers so Barton could deserve a benching this week if you have somebody else who is worth starting.

LB Anthony Simmons, Seattle (@ New England)

Simmons was considered a top-10 fantasy LB by most owners heading into the season, yet he only has 1 quality start in the first 4 games of the season. The injury to Chad Brown has caused him to play out of position, and he also has to compensate for the inexperienced of the players alongside him, which makes it more difficult for Ray Rhodes to turn him loose. The front 4 in Seattle is also doing so well compared to previous years, that there isn’t a whole lot of tackles to be made by the LBs. The Patriots rank #27 in fantasy points allowed to LBs, and the spread passing attack they use will make it difficult for Simmons to get very involved.

DB Terrence Kiel, San Diego (@ Atlanta)

Kiel had a big season opener against the Texans and looked poised for stardom this year, but he followed that up with 3 mediocre starts in a row. He did a bit better last week with 5 solos and 3 assists against the Jaguars, but he faces a very bad matchup this week in Atlanta. The Falcons rank dead last in terms of fantasy points (22.1) and percent (33%) of total IDP points allowed to opposing DBs. The Falcons have been using a conservative offense while Vick continues to adjust to the new west coast offense, which limits the number of deep pass attempts.

DB Bryan Scott, Atlanta (vs San Diego)

Scott is playing in the same game as Kiel, and also has a bad matchup as the Chargers rank #31 in points allowed to DBs. Scott has 3 quality starts in his first 5 games, but he left last week’s game against the Lions with a concussion. He’s not listed on the injury report so he should play, but starting FS Cory Hall has been bothered by back spasms so Scott could have more coverage responsibilities than normal. The Lions offense may have exposed some weaknesses in the Falcons defense, as Harrington was able to pass with ease against them despite missing many of his biggest weapons.

DB Darren Sharper, Green Bay (@ Detroit)

Sharper struggled last week against the Titans, along with the rest of his teammates and failed to reach the 6pt threshold for a quality start. He had been coming off 3 big games in a row, but the matchup against Detroit this week looks tough as the Lions rank #30 in points allowed to opposing DBs. Harrington is running a conservative but efficient offense and currently ranks in the bottom third of the league in both pass attempts and interceptions, which means that the DBs don’t get many opportunities to make plays. Sharper is unlikely to get many tackle opportunities in this game, so he’ll probably need his 3^rd INT of the season or some other type of big play to come through for fantasy owners.

DB Michael Lewis, Philadelphia (vs Carolina)

Michael Lewis started out the season very strong with 10 solos and 13 fantasy points in week 1, but he hasn’t topped 6.5 points since. He’s coming off a bye week and is matched up against the Panthers, who rank #22 in points allowed to opposing DBs. This will be a rematch of last year’s NFC Championship Game, that was a defensive struggle, but the Eagles are much better on offense and the Panthers are considerably worse due to injuries. Without a healthy Steve Smith, the Panthers don’t really have any WRs that can stretch the field so Lewis will need to come up and help stop Stephen Davis and the running game to have a chance at cracking 5 or 6 solo tackles.