IDP Strong & Weak Plays
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Posted 10/21 by Aaron Rudnicki
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This will be a weekly feature at FBG this season for IDP owners out there who
are having some troubles deciding who to start on Sundays. I'm going to pick
out several players normally ranked outside of the top-30 at each IDP grouping,
who I think should have favorable matchups this week and might be worth starting.
Additionally, I'll also highlight some top-30 players who could have trouble
living up to expectations this week that you may want to consider benching.
I'll also provide my reasoning so you can think about it and decide for yourselves.
As a bonus, I'll also review my picks from the week before so you can see how
accurate they have been and we can (hopefully) learn from my mistakes. I'll
also rely heavily on the IDP stats we are providing at FBG this year, especially
the fantasy points/game and % of points allowed to each position grouping.
Review of Last Week's Selections
STRONG STARTS
DL Robaire Smith, Houston (@ Tennessee): 2 solos, 3 asst, 1 PD = 4.5pts
DL Jamal Williams, San Diego (@ Atlanta): 4 solos, 1 asst = 5pts
DL Bobby Hamilton, Oakland (vs Denver): 2 solos, 1 asst = 2.5pts
DL Vince Wilfork, New England (vs Seattle): 0pts
LB Antonio Pierce, Washington (@ Chicago): 4 solos = 4pts
LB Danny Clark, Oakland (vs Denver): 9 solos, 1 asst = 9.5pts
LB DJ Williams, Denver (@ Oakland): 4 solos, 3 asst = 5.5pts
LB Jeff Ulbrich, San Fran (@ NY Jets): 1 solo, 3 asst = 2.5pts
DB Chris Cash, Detroit (vs Green Bay): 2 solos, 1 PD = 3pts
DB Dwight Smith, Tampa (vs St. Louis): 2 solos = 2pts
DB Lamont Thompson, Tennessee (vs Houston): 7 solos, 1 asst = 7.5pts
DB Anthony Henry, Cleveland (vs Cincinnati): 1 asst, 1 INT, 3 PD = 7.5pts
DB Jerametrius Butler, St. Louis (vs Tampa Bay): 8 solos, 1 INT, 1 FR, 3 PD
= 17pts
Hit Rate: 5/13 (38%)
WEAK STARTS
DL James Hall, Detroit (vs Green Bay): 1 solo, 1 PD = 2pts
DL Jevon Kearse, Philadelphia (vs Carolina): 1 solo, 1 PD = 2pts
DL Kenard Lang, Cleveland (vs Cincinnati): 2 solos, 2 asst = 3pts
DL Mike Rucker, Carolina (@ Philadelphia): 1 asst = 0.5pts
LB Shawn Barber, Kansas City (@ Jacksonville): 6 solos = 6pts
LB Derrick Brooks, Tampa Bay (@ St. Louis): 10 solos = 10pts
LB Eric Barton, NY Jets (vs San Francisco): 5 solos, 2 asst = 6pts
LB Anthony Simmons, Seattle (@ New England): 4 solos, 2 asst = 5pts
DB Terrence Kiel, San Diego (@ Atlanta): 3 solos = 3pts
DB Bryan Scott, Atlanta (vs San Diego): 3 solos = 3pts
DB Darren Sharper, Green Bay (@ Detroit): 3 solos, 1 asst, 1 INT, 1 PD, 1 TD
= 14.5pts
DB Michael Lewis, Philadelphia (vs Carolina): 7 solos, 2 asst = 8pts
Hit Rate: 7/12 (58%)
A brief note about the hit rates: To provide an objective standard to evaluate
these selections, 5 fantasy points will be used as the cutoff for DL and 6 fantasy
points will be used as the cutoff for LB and DBs. Thus, when a player is listed
as a strong start, we think he has a good chance to top 5 or 6 points based
on his matchup, and when we say a player is a weak start, we think he has a
good chance to put up fewer than 5 or 6 points. We'll continue to evaluate our
success throughout the season to try and provide you with the information you
need to make your starting decisions.
Week 7 Selections
STRONG STARTS
- DL Bryce Fisher, St. Louis (@ Miami)
A lot of opposing DL have had good games against the Dolphins offense this
year. Fisher will be lining up at RDE for the Rams, which is the same position
that Aaron Schobel plays and he just had a 16-point game against Miami. Two
weeks earlier, John Abraham played RDE and finished with 14.5 fantasy points.
Obviously, those guys are a step above Fisher in terms of talent, but he should
be good enough to take advantage of this favorable matchup (Dolphins rank
#2 in points/game to opposing DL). He's the leading tackler on the Rams defensive
line, and may just be able to double up on his 1.5 sacks.
- DL Chike Okeafor, Seattle (@ Arizona)
The Seahawks defense has been playing great, and Okeafor has 4 sacks in the
past 3 games. They'll be shorthanded for awhile though, as Wistrom is expected
to miss at least 4 weeks with a knee injury. Okeafor can expect to get more
attention from the offensive line this week, but a matchup with the Cardinals
should be pretty favorable, as they rank #9 in points allowed to opposing
DL (20.3).
- DL Shaun Rogers, Detroit (@ Giants)
Rogers may not even belong in this group based on the strong year he is having.
With 3 sacks on the season, he's one of the most prolific fantasy DTs thus
far, and he gets a great matchup this week against the Giants who are giving
up an average of 22.8 fantasy points/game to DL (tied for 2nd most in the
league). La'Roi Glover and Greg Ellis had big games last week against the
Giants, and Rogers should bounce back from his subpar outing (3.5 fantasy
points) in a blowout loss at home to the Packers last week.
- DL Marques Douglas, Baltimore (vs Buffalo)
The Bills are always a favorable matchup for opposing DL, and currently rank
#5 in fantasy points/allowed. Last week, however, they put a ton of emphasis
on blocking Jason Taylor and were able to keep him off the stat sheet. Bledsoe
has been sacked 20 times after just 5 games, which surprisingly ties him with
Michael Vick for most in the league, and the Ravens are one of the best teams
in the league at getting pressure on the QB. Douglas is having a strong year
and currently ranks #22 in fantasy points among DL. Prior to the bye week,
he had a 7 solo tackle outing against the Redskins. This game should be a
defensive struggle, but the DL on both teams should put up solid numbers.
- LB Matt Stewart, Atlanta (@ Kansas City)
The Chiefs lead the league by far in fantasy points/game allowed to opposing
LBs. Their offensive line does a great job of blocking to spring Priest Holmes
past all the defensive linemen, forcing the LBs and DBs to bring him down.
Stewart plays SLB for the Falcons, which is generally not conducive to putting
up big numbers, but he has 2 quality starts this season and had 7 solo tackles
against the Chargers last week. His numbers were likely helped by the fact
that starting MLB Chris Draft missed last week's game with a toe injury, and
he is currently listed as questionable again for this week.
- LB Courtney Watson, New Orleans (@ Oakland)
Watson is off to a strong start in his rookie season. He leads all Saints
LBs in tackles had 3 quality starts out of his first 5 games. He didn't do
much against the Saints last week, but then again, nobody on the Saints defense
was having a good game as the Vikings seemed to move down the field at will.
He gets a great matchup this week, as the Raiders are giving up over 25 fantasy
points/week to opposing LBs, which is tied for 2nd most in the NFL. That number
might be a bit deceiving though, because most of the big LB games against
them came earlier in the season when Gannon and Wheatley were healthy.
- LB Dontarrious Thomas, Minnesota (vs Tennessee)
Going with another somewhat unheralded rookie LB here with a great matchup.
Thomas didn't do so great last week in a game against the Saints, but he had
2 straight quality starts prior to that game and should get back on track
this week. The Titans are also giving up over 25 points/game to LBs, based
on the strong running of Chris Brown. The Vikings LB unit has been decimated
by injuries to starters Chris Claiborne and EJ Henderson, which forced Thomas
to start at MLB last week. Henderson is expected to return and start this
week in the base defense, but Thomas will play MLB in the nickel. I'm assuming
that Thomas will move back to his starting job at WLB in the base defense,
but that is not clear right now so keep an eye for any late breaking news
from Tice before starting Thomas this week.
- LB Al Wilson, Denver (@ Cincinnati)
This will be the first Monday Night Football game for the Bengals in a long
time, so the crowd should be electric. Unfortunately, the team hasn't been
nearly as good as they were expected to be this year, thanks primarily to
a weak defense and a less than stellar offense. The Bengals are giving up
25 points/game to opposing LBs, which ranks them #5 in the league. Wilson
was a top-10 fantasy LB in 2002, but has struggled to put up big numbers since
then. He has 3 quality starts out of his first 5 games, but look for the Bengals
to try and establish the run game with Rudi Johnson and avoid throwing anywhere
near Champ Bailey.
- DB Terence Newman, Dallas (@ Green Bay)
Like most CBs in fantasy football, Newman can be hot or cold. He started off
the year with back to back 1 solo tackle games (had an INT and PD in game
2), then went 9, 3, 11 in the past 3 games. So far this season, the Packers
are giving up the most points (36.6) and the highest percentage (52%) of points
to opposing DBs in the entire league. Ahman Green has had some bad games,
which has brought Favre back to his old gunslinging ways. The Lions CBs were
a disappointment last week, despite huge games from Walker and Driver, but
Newman has quality starts in a 3 out of his first 5 games and looks like a
strong play again this week.
DB Lamont Thompson, Tennessee (vs Minnesota)
Speaking of the Packers giving up points to DBs, they were a huge reason for
Lamont Thompson's emergence as he had an 18 point game against the Packers
in week 5 on MNF. Thompson backed up that huge game with 8 solo tackles last
week against the surprising Titans, who lead the league in passing. Now, he
gets to face his third great passing offense in a row with the Vikings coming
to town this week. The Vikings are giving up an average of 32 fantasy points/game
to opposing DBs, which ranks them #5 in the league. Last week against the
Saints, all 4 starting secondary players finished with no fewer than 8.5 fantasy
points even though Randy Moss didn't play in the second half after pulling
his hamstring. If this guy is still on your waiver wire and you have some
dead space on your roster, pick him up immediately. Tank Williams is a strong
play this week as well, regardless of whether Moss plays.
- DB Mark Roman, Green Bay (vs Dallas)
Roman isn't having a big impact on the Packers defense, but his presence has
seemed to help out Sharper a little bit. Roman is a solid tackler and he has
a favorable matchup this week against the Cowboys, who are giving up 31.4
fantasy points/game to opposing DBs (ranked #8). In the last 2 games, starting
SSs Gibril Wilson and Troy Polamalu have put up 8 and 9 fantasy points, respectively,
so I expect Roman to continue that trend. The Cowboys can't run the ball,
and the Packers secondary hasn't stopped anybody, so there should be plenty
of pass attempts in Lambeau on Sunday.
- DB David Barrett, NY Jets (@ New England)
Last week against Seattle, 4 players from the Seahawks secondary finished
with 5 fantasy points or more (3 finished with more than 8.5 points). Barrett
was discarded from Arizona after a year when he got burned frequently, but
he's been a great fit in the Jets new aggressive defense and currently leads
the team in tackles. Cover-2 CBs generally play a lot of zone defense and
are asked to contribute in stopping the run, which helps them get more tackle
opportunities than the average CB, and Barrett is a solid tackling CB coming
off 2 strong games in a row.
WEAK STARTS
- DL Kenard Lang, Cleveland (vs Philadelphia)
After a quick start with 3 sacks in the season opener and 4 in his first 2
games, Lang has gone sackless for 3 straight weeks. Despite the slowdown,
he's still ranked #18 among fantasy DL and has a quality start in 4 of his
first 6 games. But, the Eagles are a tough matchup for DL and are only giving
up an average of 15.2 fantasy points/game to opposing DL, which ranks #29
in the league. After 6 games, only 6 opposing DL have reached the 5pt cutoff
against the Eagles, but 2 of them came last week from Peppers and Buckner
in a blowout win against the Panthers. Lang will have his hands full with
LT Tra Thomas, and the lack of a consistent running game from the Eagles will
make it difficult for him to get many tackles.
- DL Kabeer Gbaja-Biamila, Green Bay (vs Dallas)
With only 8 solo tackles and 1.5 sacks after 6 games, KGB may have already
dropped out of the "top 30" group, but if he hasn't yet for some
this could be the week that puts them over the edge. The Cowboys rank #30
in the league in points allowed (14.9) to opposing DL, primarily because of
their complete lack of an effective running game. KGB is always capable of
putting up a big game if he's effective at getting to the QB, but he has been
too easily handled by opposing offensive linemen this year and that is really
hurting the Packers pass defense as the CBs can't hold up.
- DL Marcus Stroud, Jacksonville (@ Indianapolis)
Stroud may not have been considered a "top 30" DL by many owners
going into the season, but he sure has played like one and currently ranks
#8 in YTD fantasy points for DL. He shot way up the rankings this week after
a huge game against the Chiefs (6 solos, 2 sacks, 1 FF), who have been a tough
matchup for DL most of this season. He gets a little tougher matchup this
week as the Jags travel to Indy, who have only allowed 6 quality starts to
opposing DL in 5 games. The Jags have lost most of their already thin DE corps
to injuries this year, and as a result have been playing Stroud outside. The
Jags normally do such a good job of shutting down the running game, that the
Colts might have better success moving the ball through the air, and Peyton
rarely gets sacked.
- DL Mike Rucker, Carolina (vs San Diego)
The slump continues for Rucker, who has played the last 2 weeks but only has
1 assisted tackle to show for it. The Panthers appear to be a team in free
fall lately, and Rucker isn't doing much to turn things around. I still expect
him to eventually turn things around, especially with the strong play of Julius
Peppers playing across from him, but the Chargers have been pretty stingy
giving up points to DL so perhaps we'll have to wait another week for the
Rucker rebound game.
- LB David Thornton, Indianapolis (vs Jacksonville)
Thornton is leading the Colts in tackles, and probably doing better than many
expected after he was moved from WLB to SLB in training camp, but he's not
quite up to the top-10 status that he played for most of last season. He had
a disappointing game in week 5 before the bye week, as he finished with just
3 solos and 2 assists while playing the Raiders. Jacksonville is giving up
just under 20 points/game to opposing LB, and are beginning to rely much more
heavily on the arm of Leftwich than they are on the legs of Fred Taylor.
- LB Takeo Spikes, Buffalo (vs Baltimore)
Spikes scored on a defensive TD against the Dolphins last week, but he has
only broken 4 solo tackles in 1 game this season. His fantasy value relies
heavily on the big play, but the Ravens haven't given up very many of them.
They play a very conservative offense and often wait for the defense to win
it. Add in the suspension to Jamal Lewis, and the Ravens offense should see
plenty of 3 and outs this week. The Ravens rank #22 in the league in points/game
allowed to opposing LBs, and Spikes only has 2 quality starts out of his first
5 weeks so this might be a good week to leave him on the bench if you have
a better option.
- LB Andra Davis, Cleveland (vs Philadelphia)
Davis isn't putting up top-10 numbers like he did last year, but he has been
a pretty consistent producer this year and has 5 quality starts in 6 games.
He faces a tough matchup this week in the Eagles, who rank #30 in fantasy
points/allowed to opposing LBs. However, they have given up two 10+ fantasy
point games to opposing MLBs in the past 3 weeks, so perhaps that ranking
is misleading. Chances are, you'll want to keep Davis in the lineup, but don't
expect huge numbers from him this week.
- LB Eric Barton, NY Jets (@ New England)
Even though the Jets defense has been playing great, Barton didn't have his
first quality start of the season until last week against the 49ers at home
(5 solos, 2 asst). Now, he goes on the road to face a tough New England team
that ranks #25 in fantasy points allowed to LBs. In his previous 2 road games
against San Diego and Miami, Barton only totaled 6 solo tackles so it might
not be a bad idea to bench him until he starts to produce more. With Cowart
coming back off injury soon, things could get even more crowded for the Jets
at LB, making it even harder for any of them to be an every week starter.
- DB Greg Wesley, Kansas City (vs Atlanta)
Wesley was a top-5 DB in most scoring systems last year with 87 solo tackles
and 6 INTs, but he hasn't come close to matching that type of production yet
this year. He hasn't exactly been putting up terrible numbers (3 quality starts
so far), but his max of 8.5 points is disappointing for a guy considered to
be a fantasy stud. Don't expect things to get much better this week as the
Falcons rank dead last in fantasy points (20.8) and percentage of points (32%)
allowed to opposing DBs. Vick's struggles along with the switch to a new west
coast offense have left provided few tackle and INT opportunities for Falcons
opponents. They just don't have an effective deep passing game and rely very
heavily on the running game and short and intermediate passes.
- DB Mike Minter, Carolina (vs San Diego)
Minter was a key component of the Panthers run to the Super Bowl last year,
and he got off to a good start in the first 2 games but he hasn't done much
since the Panthers bye week, including last week against the Eagles when he
finished with just 2 fantasy points. This week, he faces a Chargers team that
currently leads the league in scoring but ranks #30 in points allowed to opposing
DBs. For some reason, CBs have been doing much better than safeties have,
even though the Chargers WRs don't seem good enough to scare many teams in
the league.
- DB Ed Reed, Baltimore (vs Buffalo)
In week 5 before the bye, Ed Reed almost single-handedly beat the Redskins
when he sacked Mark Brunell, forced a fumble, recovered the fumble, and returned
it for a TD. That also marked his third quality start in a row so it is probably
pretty risky for me to place him in this group. But, the Bills rank #26 in
the league in fantasy points allowed to opposing DBs and an opposing safety
really hasn't had a big game against them since week 1 when Donovin Darius
finished with 11.5 points. This should be a defensive struggle, so I get the
feeling that Reed and the Ravens defense won't see very many snaps. He could
still very well come through with a sack or INT, but those are harder to predict
and risky to rely on.
- DB Gibril Wilson, NY Giants (vs Detroit)
About the only thing that could slow this guy down was the bye week, as he
was on a streak of 3 straight quality starts. He's been one of the bigger
surprises out of this year's rookie IDP crop. A matchup with the Lions could
be trouble though, as they rank #31 in the league in points allowed to DBs.
A healthy Roy Williams and Kevin Jones would help, but in general the Lions
have been pretty conservative on offense and Harrington has been protecting
the football pretty well. Keep in mind that I picked Darren Sharper in this
spot last week based on the same matchup, but he ended up with a huge INT
return for a TD, so you never know. But, if there was a week for Wilson's
numbers to drop off a bit, I think this could be the one.
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