This will be a weekly feature at FBG this season for IDP owners out there who are having some troubles deciding who to start on Sundays. I’m going to pick out several players normally ranked outside of the top-30 at each IDP grouping, who I think should have favorable matchups this week and might be worth starting. Additionally, I’ll also highlight some top-30 players who could have trouble living up to expectations this week that you may want to consider benching. I’ll also provide my reasoning so you can think about it and decide for yourselves. As a bonus, I’ll also review my picks from the week before so you can see how accurate they have been and we can (hopefully) learn from my mistakes. I’ll also rely heavily on the IDP stats we are providing at FBG this year, especially the fantasy points/game and % of points allowed to each position grouping.

Review of Last Week’s Selections:

STRONG STARTS

DL Bryce Fisher, St Louis (@ Miami): 1 solo, 2 asst, 1.5 sacks = 6.5pts

DL Chike Okeafor, Seattle (@ Arizona): 2 solo, 1 asst, 1 sack, 1 FF = 7.5pts

DL Shaun Rogers, Detroit (@ Giants): 3 solo, 2 asst, 1 sack, 1 PD = 8pts

DL Marques Douglas, Baltimore (vs Buffalo): 1 solo, 2 asst = 2pts

LB Matt Stewart, Atlanta (@ Kansas City): 9 solo, 1 asst = 9.5pts

LB Courtney Watson, New Orleans (@ Oakland): 1 solo = 1pt

LB Dontarrious Thomas, Minnesota (vs Tennessee): 2 solos, 1 sack = 5pts

LB Al Wilson, Denver (@ Cincinnati): 5 solo, 3 asst, 1 sack = 9.5pts

DB Terence Newman, Dallas (@ Green Bay): 5 solos, 1 PD = 6pts

DB Lamont Thompson, Tennessee (vs Minnesota): 8 solos = 8pts

DB Mark Roman, Green Bay (vs Dallas): 3 solos, 2 asst, 1 sack = 7pts

DB David Barrett, NY Jets (@ New England): 5 solos, 2 asst = 6pts

Hit Rate: 9/12 (75%)

WEAK STARTS

DL Kenard Lang, Cleveland (vs Philadelphia): 4 solos = 4pts

DL Kabeer Gbaja-Biamila, Green Bay (vs Dallas): 1 solo, 1 asst = 1.5pts

DL Marcus Stroud, Jacksonville (@ Indianapolis): 2 solos, 1 asst, 1 PD = 3.5pts

DL Mike Rucker, Carolina (vs San Diego): 1 PD = 1pt

LB David Thornton, Indianapolis (vs Jacksonville): 5 solos, 2 asst = 6pts

LB Takeo Spikes, Buffalo (vs Baltimore): 8 solos, 3 asst, 1 sack = 12.5pts

LB Andra Davis, Cleveland (vs Philadelphia): 6 solos, 1 asst, 1 INT, 1 PD = 11.5pts

LB Eric Barton, NY Jets (@ New England): 7 solos, 5 asst, 1 FR = 11.5pts

DB Greg Wesley, Kansas City (vs Atlanta): 4 solos, 1 INT, 2 PD = 10pts

DB Mike Minter, Carolina (vs San Diego): 5 solos, 1 asst, 1 FF = 7.5pts

DB Ed Reed, Baltimore (vs Buffalo): 5 solos, 1 INT, 1 PD = 10pts

DB Gibril Wilson, NY Giants (vs Detroit): 5 solos, 2 asst, 1 sack = 9pts

Hit Rate: 4/12 (25%)

A brief note about the hit rates: To provide an objective standard to evaluate these selections, 5 fantasy points will be used as the cutoff for DL and 6 fantasy points will be used as the cutoff for LB and DBs. Thus, when a player is listed as a strong start, we think he has a good chance to top 5 or 6 points based on his matchup, and when we say a player is a weak start, we think he has a good chance to put up fewer than 5 or 6 points. We’ll continue to evaluate our success throughout the season to try and provide you with the information you need to make your starting decisions.

Week 8 Selections

STRONG STARTS

DL Tommie Harris, Chicago (vs San Francisco)

Harris was recently fined $5000 by the league for a late hit on Brian Griese, but he has been the Bears best defensive lineman so far this year. He’s on a bit of a roll with 11 solo tackles and 1.5 sacks in the past 3 weeks. Last year, DT Brian Young put up solid numbers in Lovie Smith’s system and Harris appears to having similar success. He gets a great matchup this week against the 49ers, who are coming off their bye week. The 49ers offense is giving up more fantasy points (30) to and a higher percentage of total IDP points (36%) to opposing DL than any other team in the league. In both of the 49ers last 2 games, 3 of the 4 starting DL from the opposing team wound up with at least 5 fantasy points, and most of them scored considerably higher.

DL Kenechi Udeze, Minnesota (vs NY Giants)

Udeze had a string of 3 straight quality starts broken last week when he faced the Titans, whose offense struggled badly after McNair went down early with an injury. Kevin Williams has picked up right where he left off as a rookie and leads the team with 4 sacks, and the pressure he creates on the inside should help Udeze get one on one matchups pretty consistently. In the past 3 weeks, the Giants have allowed 12 sacks by opposing DL, including 6 given up last week to 4 different Lions players. Right now, Udeze has 2 sacks on the season but he could easily double that total this week.

DL Bert Berry, Arizona (@ Buffalo)

Berry is playing a key role in turning the Cardinals defense around this year. He had 4 sacks in a 3 game stretch, including a monster 16pt game in week 5 (5 solos, 2 sacks, 1 PD, 2 FF) against the 49ers. He was shut out last week by Walter Jones of the Seahawks, but he has a favorable matchup this week when he faces Drew Bledsoe and the Bills. Buffalo hasn’t been allowing as many points to opposing DL lately as they were earlier in the season, but they still rank #10 with an average of just over 20 points/week. Starting LT Jonas Jennings has been injured, and backup Marcus Price is currently listed as questionable, so whoever he faces will likely not be 100%.

DL Jason Ferguson, NY Jets (vs Miami)

The Dolphins rank #3 in fantasy points allowed to DL with 23.7/game, including nearly 3 sacks per game. In the past 3 weeks, DTs Vince Wilfork, Ron Edwards, and Damione Lewis have all recorded sacks against the Dolphins. Abraham and Ellis should get the majority of attention from the offensive line, so Ferguson should get plenty of one-on-one matchups. The Dolphins offense has also been playing better of late, which means more snaps and tackle opportunities for DL.

LB Jim Nelson, Indianapolis (@ Kansas City)

I don’t know exactly how Jim Nelson fits in, but he’s had a quality start in each of the past 3 games. He may be seeing more playing time in place of Rob Morris, who has seen a sharp decline in his numbers of late. Nelson also plays in the Colts nickel defense, which sees the field often given how well they’ve been playing on offense. When the Colts get out to an early lead, opposing teams are forced to throw against them. All Colts LBs get a great matchup this week against the Chiefs, who are giving up more points (27.7/game) and a higher percentage (38%) of total IDP points to opposing LBs than any other offense in the league. Priest Holmes and Tony Gonzalez remain the main focus of the Chiefs offense, and they should both have good games playing in Arrowhead.

LB Raynoch Thompson, Arizona (@ Buffalo)

Thompson missed a few games to injury earlier this season, but is healthy and back in the starting lineup for the rejuvenated Cardinals defense. LBs have had some big days against the Bills offense, which ranks #2 in points/game (26.9) allowed to LBs. The Bills offense has played better with McGahee in the backfield, so look for a solid running game now that he’s expected to get the start. The Bills are also giving up nearly 2 sacks/game to opposing LBs, so Thompson and Dansby should be able to get some pressure on Bledsoe.

LB Steve Foley, San Diego (vs Oakland)

Foley had 3 quality starts in a row before last week’s game against Carolina, when he was limited to just 3 points. He leads the Chargers in sacks with 4.5, and has had at least 4 solo tackles in 5 out of the first 7 games so he doesn’t overrely on the big play to be valuable to owners. The Raiders rank #4 in points allowed to LBs with 24.3, with nearly 16 solo tackles to spread around on average. Randall Godfrey could also be a nice sleeper this week as well.

LB Brad Kassell, Tennessee (vs Cincinnati)

Kassell has been a quality start in 2 of the past 4 weeks, and has a solid matchup with the Bengals on Sunday. Kassell is filling in at MLB for the injured Rocky Calmus, who returned to practice this week but described himself at only about 75% healthy. Obviously, if Calmus plays, that will hurt Kassell’s numbers so watch for any late breaking news to see who gets the start. The Bengals rank #5 in points allowed to opposing LBs, but over the past 2 weeks the only LBs that have crossed the 6pt quality start threshold have been MLBs Andra Davis and Al Wilson. The Bengals rushing game mainly stays between the tackles, where Rudi Johnson is most effective, which means the opposing MLB usually has a better chance of making the tackle than either OLB.

DB Mike Green, Chicago (vs San Francisco)

Mike Green might not belong in this list since he currently sits at #10 on the FBG YTP points list for DBs, but I’ve never been a believer and kept expecting him to lose his job despite the big numbers he puts up. But, the Bears offense is so bad, that whoever lines up on defense is going to be on the field a lot and get plenty of tackle opportunities. Green is third leading tackler on the Bears and has shown some playmaking ability this year that he hadn’t in the past (2 INTs). He has quality starts in 4 of his first 6 games, and gets a good matchup against the 49ers who are giving up more points to fantasy DBs (35.2) than any other team in the league. Rattay missed a couple practices this week with a sore arm, but he’s expected to play on Sunday.

DB Ryan Clark, Washington (vs Green Bay)

The Redskins defense ranks #1 in the league, despite having suffered through a lot of injuries. Clark filled in at SS for an injured Matt Bowen in the 2^nd quarter against the Ravens and finished with 8 solo tackles. His play helped the Redskins slow down Jamal Lewis and caught Joe Gibbs eye. Based on that performance, he got the start the following week against the Bears and finished with 6 solo tackles on defense plus he added a couple more on special teams. There was a chance he could lose his starting spot this week to Andre Lott, but FS Sean Taylor got arrested for DWI on Wednesday night and is unlikely to play on Sunday. The Packers rank #2 in the league in points (34.4) and percentage (50%) of total IDP points allowed to DBs, so pretty much everybody in the Redskins secondary is a strong start this week.

DB Will Allen, NY Giants (@ Minnesota)

Allen is the second leading tackler on the Giants and has been remarkably consistent, finishing with no fewer than 4 solo tackles in any game. He faces the high powered Vikings offense, who might not be as pass-happy with an injured or ineffective Randy Moss, but they’ll still put the ball in the air with the other WRs they have. The Vikings rank #10 in points allowed to DBs with 30.8/game, and nearly every CB they’ve faced in the past 3 weeks has come up with 6 or more fantasy points.

DB Andre Woolfolk, Tennessee (vs Cincinnati)

Woolfolk was a 1^st round pick of the Titans who was expected to play the nickel back role for them this year, but he’s currently their 3^rd leading tackler. He’s a physical player and has 7 solo tackles in each of the past 2 games. The Bengals rank #5 in points allowed to DBs (31.5) and over their past 3 games, 5 of 6 starting CBs have had quality starts against them. Palmer looked better against the Broncos on MNF, but only Jake Delhomme has thrown more INTs than him at this point.

WEAK STARTS

DL James Hall, Detroit (@ Dallas)

Dallas ranks #31 in the league in points allowed to DL with just 14.6. Divide that number by the 6 or 7 guys that see a lot of time in the Lions rotation and things don’t look too good for Hall this week. He had a 9pt game against the Giants last week (4 solos, 1 sack, 1 FF), but the Giants have a running game and the Cowboys do not.

DL Greg Ellis, Dallas (vs Detroit)

Ellis is having a great season, and recently had a 4-game stretch in which he recorded 6 sacks, but he only has 1 solo tackle over the past 2 weeks and the matchup against the Lions is not very favorable. Detroit ranks #27 in the league in terms of points allowed to opposing DL (15.4) thanks primarily to their lack of a running game and Harrington’s quick release.

DL Tyler Brayton, Oakland (@ San Diego)

Brayton’s quick start moved him up into potential stud status, but he’s now gone 4 straight weeks without a quality start and has put up no more than 2 solo tackles in any of those games and no sacks since week 2. The Chargers rank #23 in the league in points allowed to DL (15.9), and now that the Raiders are primarily playing a 3-4 defense, Brayton is being used more to tie up blockers and allow the LBs like Danny Clark to make plays. He’s still a quality player, but the scheme doesn’t fit his talents very well (just like what happened to Patrick Kerney in Atlanta last year).

DL Dwight Freeney, Indianapolis (@ Kansas City)

Freeney isn’t making the same type of impact this year as he has in the past, and his fantasy value has been minimal. He did break out a bit last week with a 2 sack game against Jacksonville, so there’s a chance he could get hot and build on that momentum. However, prior to that game, he had 3 straight games where he only put up 1 fantasy point. The Chiefs rank #21 in the league in points allowed to DL (17.2/game), and Freeney will have his hands full lining up against Willie Roaf.

LB Shawn Barber, Kansas City (vs Indianapolis)

Barber started out strong when the Chiefs defense was struggling, but since they have stiffened up, his numbers have seen a significant drop. He’s had 2 poor starts out of the past 3 weeks and the Colts rank #22 in the league in points allowed to LBs (19.8). In 6 games this year, only 8 opposing LBs have finished with 6 or more fantasy points and 3 of them came in week 1 against the Pats and nearly all of them were MLBs.

LB James Farrior, Pittsburgh (vs New England)

Farrior has been a solid fantasy LB this year, and has quality starts in 5 of his first 6 games. He is also coming off one of the biggest games of the season by any IDP when he finished with 6 solos, 2 sacks, and 3 FFs (18pts) against the Cowboys in week 6. That’s even more impressive when you consider that the Cowboys rank dead last in fantasy points allowed to LBs. But, the Patriots rank #24 in the league in points allowed to LBs (18.8/game) and the spread passing attack will limit Farrior’s tackle opportunities. After 6 games, London Fletcher and Zach Thomas are the only 2 MLBs who have finished with 6 fantasy points or more while playing the Pats.

LB Jay Foreman, Houston (vs Jacksonville)

Foreman is generally a tackle machine, but his numbers seem down this year compared to the past couple. He has only 3 quality starts in the first 6 games, and the Jags rank #21 in points allowed to LBs (20.2). Furthermore, through 7 games, only 2 ILB (London Fletcher and Donnie Edwards) have finished with 6 or more fantasy points against the Jags. In fairness, however, the other ILBs they’ve faced haven’t exactly been top-notch so this will be a good test. If Taylor and the running game is working, Foreman and Sharper should do well. But, if this turns into the shootout between Carr and Leftwich that many are expecting, Foreman’s numbers could suffer.

LB Anthony Simmons, Seattle (vs Carolina)

Going into the season, the biggest risk with Anthony Simmons was his ability to stay healthy. Well, he’s been reasonably healthy this year, but his numbers haven’t been. He only has 1 quality start so far this year, and is likely disappointing quite a few fantasy owners. The Panthers rank right around the league average (17^th) in points allowed to LBs (21pts/game), so this isn’t a terrible matchup, but injuries have decimated the Panthers offense and the Seahawks should have little trouble shutting them down.

DB Roy Williams, Dallas (vs Detroit)

Most fantasy owners thought the move to FS last year was the reason for a big drop in Williams’ numbers from his monster rookie season. Now that Woodson has been injured, Williams is back to being a consistent fantasy producer. After 6 games, he’s only missed the 6pt cutoff once, and he had a decent 8pt showing in a blowout loss to the Packers last week. But, the Packers are giving up more points to DBs than anybody, while the Lions rank #31 with 23.2 pts/game and just 15.2 solo tackles/game. The Lions running game started to show signs of life last week behind Kevin Jones and Artose Pinner, but they still rank near the bottom of the league. Williams has yet to record a sack, INT, FF, or FR on the season.

DB Michael Lewis, Philadelphia (vs Baltimore)

Lewis is a very good young safety who started off the season with 3 consecutive quality starts, but he has 2 poor starts out of his last 3 games. The Ravens offense will be without Jamal Lewis and Todd Heap and they’ll have trouble moving the ball against the Eagles. Last week against the Bills, the Ravens had 0 yards on offense in the 3^rd quarter and 0 completions for the entire second half. As a result of their inability to pass downfield, the Ravens rank #29 in points allowed to DBs (25.4/game). Just like Roy Williams, Lewis has yet to record a sack, INT, FF, or FR this season.

DB Sammy Knight, Miami (@ NY Jets)

I expected Knight to put up good numbers this year, but he has only been a quality start in 1 of the first 7 games. That 1 game came last week in their first win against the Rams (6 solos, 1 INT, 1 PD), which makes sense because that was the only game teams actually had to pass against them. The Jets rank #28 in the league in points allowed to DBs (26/game) as they have relied very heavily on Curtis Martin and the running game. Rodney Harrison had a decent outing against them last week, but the Patriots did a good job of shutting down Martin and forcing the Jets to throw downfield more than they would have liked to. Harrison also plays like more of an extra LB than Knight does.

DB Tony Parrish, San Francisco (@ Chicago)

Last year, Parrish’s fantasy value relied very heavily on his INT total, but this year he has yet to record an INT after 6 games. His tackle numbers this year have allowed him to be more consistent, but he’s only had 1 game with 10 or more fantasy points. He’s currently on a streak of 4 straight quality starts, but the matchup with his former team is likely to end it. The Bears rank #24 in the league in points allowed (28) to opposing DBs, but ever since Grossman tore his ACL that number has been dropping. They simply don’t have an effective passing game, and should be even more limited with the move to Krenzel this week. Parrish’s best chance to keep the quality start string alive this week is to break the INT drought, which is entirely possible with Krenzel under center, but nobody in the 49ers secondary has a pick yet this year.