IDP Strong & Weak Plays
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Posted 11/5 by Aaron Rudnicki
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This will be a weekly feature at FBG this season for IDP owners out there who
are having some troubles deciding who to start on Sundays. I'm going to pick
out several players normally ranked outside of the top-30 at each IDP
grouping, who I think should have favorable matchups this week and might be
worth starting. Additionally, I'll also highlight some top-30 players who could
have trouble living up to expectations this week that you may want to consider
benching. I'll also provide my reasoning so you can think about it and decide
for yourselves. As a bonus, I'll also review my picks from the week before so
you can see how accurate they have been and we can (hopefully) learn from my
mistakes. I'll also rely heavily on the IDP stats we are providing at FBG this
year, especially the fantasy points/game and % of points allowed to each position
grouping.
Review of Last Week's Selections
STRONG STARTS
- DL Tommie Harris, Chicago (vs San Francisco): 0pts
- DL Kenechi Udeze, Minnesota (vs NY Giants): 2 solos, 1 sack = 5pts
- DL Bert Berry, Arizona (@ Buffalo): 1 solo, 1 asst = 1.5pts
- DL Jason Ferguson, NY Jets (vs Miami): 2 solos, 2 asst, 1.5 sacks = 7.5pts
- LB Jim Nelson, Indianapolis (@ Kansas City): 0pts
- LB Raynoch Thompson, Arizona (@ Buffalo): 0pts
- LB Steve Foley, San Diego (vs Oakland): 2 solos, 2pts
- LB Brad Kassell, Tennessee (vs Cincinnati): 2 solos, 2 asst = 3pts
- DB Mike Green, Chicago (vs San Francisco): 5 solos, 1 asst, 1 FR = 7.5pts
- DB Ryan Clark, Washington (vs Green Bay): 6 solos, 2 asst = 7pts
- DB Will Allen, NY Giants (@ Minnesota): 4 solos, 1 INT, 2 PD = 10pts
- DB Andre Woolfolk, Tennessee (vs Cincinnati): 3 solos, 1 asst, 1 PD = 4.5pts
Hit Rate: 5/12 (42%)
WEAK STARTS
- DL James Hall, Detroit (@ Dallas): 1 solo, 2 asst = 2pts
- DL Greg Ellis, Dallas (vs Detroit): 1PD = 1pt
- DL Tyler Brayton, Oakland (@ San Diego): 2 asst = 1pt
- DL Dwight Freeney, Indianapolis (@ Kansas City): 3 solos = 3pts
- LB Shawn Barber, Kansas City (vs Indianapolis): 3 solos = 3pts
- LB James Farrior, Pittsburgh (vs New England): 3 solos, 2 asst = 4pts
- LB Jay Foreman, Houston (vs Jacksonville): 2 solos, 1 asst = 2.5pts
- LB Anthony Simmons, Seattle (vs Carolina): 0pts (inactive)
- DB Roy Williams, Dallas (vs Detroit): 7 solos, 1 asst, 1 PD = 8.5pts
- DB Michael Lewis, Philadelphia (vs Baltimore): 6 solos, 1 asst, 1 INT, 1
PD = 11.5pts
- DB Sammy Knight, Miami (@ NY Jets): 6 solos, 3 asst = 7.5pts
- DB Tony Parrish, San Francisco (@ Chicago): 5 solos, 2 assist = 6pts
Hit Rate: 8/12 (75%)
A brief note about the hit rates: To provide an objective standard to evaluate
these selections, 5 fantasy points will be used as the cutoff for DL and 6 fantasy
points will be used as the cutoff for LB and DBs. Thus, when a player is listed
as a strong start, we think he has a good chance to top 5 or 6 points based
on his matchup, and when we say a player is a weak start, we think he has a
good chance to put up fewer than 5 or 6 points. We'll continue to evaluate our
success throughout the season to try and provide you with the information you
need to make your starting decisions.
Week 8 Selections
STRONG STARTS
- DL Michael Haynes, Chicago (@ NY Giants)
With Ogunleye expected to miss his second consecutive game, Haynes should
get the start. After recording a sack in the first game of the season, he's
been held sackless ever since but he should be able to change that trend this
week against the Giants, who are allowing a league-high 3.3 sacks/game to
DL, including 5 last week in a blowout win against the Vikings. The Giants
offense ranks #2 in total tackles (17.4), forced fumbles (1.0), fantasy points/game
(29.1), and % of total IDP points (37%) allowed to DL. At this point, any
Bears lineman looks like a good play against the Giants this week.
- DL Antonio Cochran, Seattle (@ San Francisco)
In his first game filling in for an injured Grant Wistrom against the Cardinals,
Cochran finished with 5 solos, 1 asst, 1 sack, and 1 PD for a 9.5pt outing.
He didn't fare as well against the Panthers last week, finishing with only
2 solos and a PD, but he gets a great matchup this week with the 49ers. San
Francisco's offense ranks #2 in points (28.6), #2 in total tackles (17.4),
#3 in sacks (2.5), #1 in PD (2.6), #2 in FF, and #2 in % of points (35%) allowed
to DL. The 49ers running game has been struggling all year long, and the 49ers
have relied heavily on the passing game, which has allowed opposing DL to
tee off on their QBs without respecting the run.
- DL Bert Berry, Arizona (@ Miami)
Along with almost the entire Cardinals team, Berry had a rough outing last
week against Bledsoe and the Bills in windy conditions. Amazingly, Bledsoe
wasn't sacked all game. Prior to that game, however, Berry had put up 7 or
more fantasy points in 3 out of 4 games and he should get back on track against
the Dolphins this week. Miami's offense has started to play better thanks
to Jay Fiedler, but they still rank #2 in sacks (2.8), #3 in fantasy points
(23.9), and #3 in % of points (32%) allowed to opposing DL. They gave up 3
sacks last week in a blowout loss to the Jets on MNF, and RDEs have been particularly
successful given the troubles the Dolphins have had with their LT position.
- DL Cory Redding/Kalimba Edwards, Detroit (vs Washington)
Redding has earned a starting spot for the Lions at LDE, but the Lions use
Edwards frequently in passing situations. Both are benefiting from the great
play of Shaun Rogers and James Hall, and both had big games against the Giants
two weeks ago, before struggling against the Cowboys in week 8 (who rank #28
in points allowed to DL). This week, they get a favorable matchup against
Brunell, Portis and the Redskins. Washington gave up 3 sacks and 5 PD to Packers
DL last week, as well as a FF and FR. On the season, Washington's offense
ranks #4 in fantasy points allowed to DL (22.9), #3 in percent of total IDP
points allowed to DL (32%), and #4 in total tackles (17.1). Which player you
like more depends on how you think the game will go. If you expect the Redskins
to do well, then they will probably run more making Redding the stronger play.
If you expect the Lions to do well, then Brunell will likely need to pass
more and that should lead to more opportunities for Edwards.
- LB Derek Smith, San Francisco (vs Seattle)
Derek Smith has only played in 5 games, but he has more solo tackles than
anybody else on the 49ers. When healthy, he's averaging 7.4 solo tackles/game
and had 9 last week against the Bears. The Seahawks rank #4 in fantasy points
(24.3) allowed, #4 in percent of IDP points (34%), #5 in solo tackles (16.1),
#6 in total tackles (21.4), and #1 in INTs allowed to LBs. Last week, the
Seahawks showed a commitment to Shaun Alexander and the running game and it
showed with huge IDP numbers for all healthy Panthers LBs. Look for something
similar to happen this week in San Francisco.
- LB Jonathan Vilma, NY Jets (@ Buffalo)
Since taking over for an injured Cowart early in the season, Vilma has looked
like a seasoned vet with quality starts in 4 of the past 5 games. Cowart is
listed as probable on this week's injury report, but he's not 100% and they
may hold him out another week. Regardless, Vilma is expected to remain the
starter and should post great numbers this week. Buffalo ranks #1 in fantasy
points (26), #1 in sacks, #2 in total tackles, and #1 in percent of IDP points
(36%) allowed to opposing LBs. McGahee has sparked the running game and the
offense, and he should have plenty of collisions with his former teammate
on Sunday.
- LB Shelton Quarles, Tampa Bay (vs Kansas City)
Quarles got off to a quick start this season, but has slowed down recently
due to some injury problems. He missed practice on Wednesday but is expected
to play (if he can't go, look for Jeff Gooch to have a good game in his place).
Colts LBs had a tough time with the Chiefs last week, but for the season they
are tied with the Bills for #1 in points allowed to opposing LBs with 26/game.
They rank well ahead of everybody in solo tackles (18.6) thanks to Priest
Holmes and the running game, rank #4 in LB sacks, and #2 in percent of points
allowed to LBs. With the way the Chiefs offense has been rolling, I expect
good numbers from Quarles this week.
- LB Will Witherspoon, Carolina (vs Oakland)
Witherspoon is the 2nd leading tackler on the Panthers and has quality starts
in 4 of 7 games, including the last 2 in a row and 9 solos last week against
the Seahawks. MLB Dan Morgan suffered a concussion last week and may not be
able to play, which would free up many more tackle opportunities for Witherspoon
(who could also see some time at MLB in that scenario). The Raiders currently
rank #5 in fantasy points (24) allowed to LBs and should provide a favorable
matchup for the Witherspoon this week, especially with the expected return
of Tyrone Wheatley.
- DB Ken Lucas/Marcus Trufant, Seattle (@ San Francisco)
Both Lucas and Trufant have been putting up solid fantasy numbers this year.
Trufant has 13 solo tackles over the past 2 weeks, and Lucas has 10 solos
and an INT. The 49ers have allowed more IDP points than any other team, so
both players should put up decent numbers this week. The 49ers rank #2 in
fantasy points allowed to DBs (34.2) and #3 in total tackles by DBs. Since
the 49ers have been forced to play from behind in pretty much every game thus
far, it makes sense that DBs would do well against them.
- DB Champ Bailey, Denver (vs Houston)
Bailey has been seeing a lot more activity than he's used to in the past 2
weeks with 14 solo tackles. That type of activity figures to continue this
week with a matchup against Andre Johnson and the Texans. Bailey should be
locked up with AJ most of the day, so look for Carr to challenge him like
other teams have done recently. The Texans offense ranks #4 in fantasy points
allowed to DBs (31.5) and #7 in total tackles by DBs (25.3). The Texans running
game has struggled, but the passing game has been carrying them.
- DB Bob Sanders, Indianapolis (vs Minnesota)
Bob Sanders was a very highly regarded player coming out of college, but he
missed training camp due to a foot injury and a holdout. By the time he signed
a contract, he was well behind and missed out on starting in the season opener.
Last week, he saw his first considerable playing time replacing an injured
Mike Doss, and finished with 8 solo tackles and 1 asst against the Chiefs.
This week, Doss is not expected to play, so Sanders is likely to get his first
start at SS. His incredible range could be an asset against the Vikings high
powered offense, who will be getting Onterrio Smith back in the lineup. Sanders
plays much bigger than he is, and the Vikings rank #5 in fantasy points allowed
to DBs (31.1), and #4 in total tackles (25.7) by DBs.
- DB Jermaine Phillips, Tampa Bay (vs Kansas City)
Jermaine Phillips got some IDP owners excited after the Bucs cut John Lynch
loose earlier this year. He's played well (3 quality starts out of 7 games),
but hasn't been a guy you can rely on as an every week starter. In his last
game (week 7 vs Bears), he finished with 6 solos and 3 assists against the
Bears, who have been one of the stingiest DB attacks this year. Now, he faces
the Chiefs who rank #7 in fantasy points allowed (30.9) and are also #1 in
solo tackles by opposing DBs (22.1). Look for Phillips to see a lot of action
trying to shut down Priest Holmes and Tony Gonzalez this week.
WEAK STARTS
- DL Kevin Williams, Minnesota (@ Indianapolis)
Kevin Williams is surprisingly on pace to surpass the huge numbers he put
up in his rookie season. He's recorded at least 1 sack in 5 out of 7 games
and looks like a likely Pro Bowl candidate. However, the matchup this week
is about as bad as it can get since the Colts rank dead last in fantasy points
(12.9) and sacks (.3) allowed to DL. In last week's game, Chiefs DL only accounted
for 2.5 points COMBINED. Look for another shoot-out this week and relatively
low numbers for DL on both sides.
- DL Cornelius Griffin, Washington (@ Detroit)
Griffin has been very effective playing in Gregg Williams' defense and currently
ranks #6 in YTD fantasy points according to FBG's scoring system. He may not
have reached consensus "top 30" status yet, but he's been very consistent
averaging nearly 4.5 solo tackles/game. The matchup with the Lions could be
trouble, however, as they rank #30 in fantasy points (13.9) and #31 in total
tackles (10.7) allowed to opposing DL. They also rank dead last in total IDP
points allowed regardless of position with 54.4/game. Last week, the entire
Cowboys DL only accounted for 5 total fantasy points, so don't expect much
Griffin this week.
- DL Mike Rucker, Carolina (vs Oakland)
Rucker is having a nightmare of a season so far. 7 games in and he only has
.5 sack despite averaging over 10 sacks/season for the past 3 years. His tackle
numbers are also down dramatically from what they should be. He may no longer
be a consensus "top 30" guy, but I'm sure many owners out there
who drafted him highly still think of him that way. He showed some signs of
life with 4 solos last week against Seattle, who have been pretty tough against
DL. This week, he faces a slightly tougher matchup in the Raiders, who currently
rank #29 in fantasy points/game (15.1), #32 in total (10.1) and solo tackles
(7.4), and #31 in percentage of total IDP points (22%) allowed to DL. The
return of Wheatley could help the Raiders running game, but this doesn't look
like a get well quick game for Rucker and his desperate owners.
- DL Justin Smith, Cincinnati (vs Dallas)
Justin Smith has finally begun to live up to his draft status as the #4 overall
pick. He's the Bengals 2nd leading tackler, leading sacker, and ranks #9 on
FBGs YTD DL fantasy point rankings. He has 14 total tackles, 2 sacks, and
a FF over the past 2 weeks but the Cowboys have been a tough matchup for DL
so far this year. They rank #28 in fantasy points (15.1), #28 in total tackles
(11.9), and #30 in sacks (.7) allowed to opposing DL. The offensive line has
done a good job of protecting Vinny, but haven't done as well opening holes
for Eddie George and the running game.
- LB Tedy Bruschi, New England (@ St Louis)
Bruschi's numbers are kind of interesting because he's averaging almost as
many assisted tackles/game (3.4) as he is solo tackles (4.0). He also hasn't
been as much of a big play threat this year as he has been in the past (.5
sack, 1 INT, 1 FF). Despite all that, he's been consistent and has scored
6 or more points in 6 out of 7 games. He'll face a stiff test in the Rams,
who rank #32 in points allowed to LBs (16.4), #31 in percent of points allowed
to LBs (24%), and #29 in total tackles by opposing LBs (16.0). If the Patriots
can slow down the Rams running game early, look for Mart to try and attack
the Patriots secondary, who will be without the services of Ty Law this week.
- LB James Farrior, Pittsburgh (vs Philadelphia)
Farrior has only scored fewer than 6 fantasy points twice this season, and
one of those games came last week against New England (which I happened to
call in this article last week). He faces a potentially worse matchup this
week with the Eagles coming to town in the battle of Pennsylvania. The Eagles
could be without the services of Brian Westbrook again, which will hurt the
effectiveness of their running game. As a result, Farrior will likely be used
as a shadow on McNabb to try and contain him and limit the damage he can do
on QB scrambles. The Eagles currently rank #31 overall in IDP points allowed
(58.9), #27 in points allowed (17.7) to opposing LBs, and #31 in total tackles
by opposing LBs (15.6).
- LB Danny Clark, Oakland (@ Carolina)
Danny Clark is having a breakout season in Oakland's new defense after coming
over from Jacksonville. He's currently the #9 ranked fantasy LB according
to FBG scoring and has 6 quality starts in his first 8 games. In fact, he's
averaging over 6 solo tackles/game. The matchup with the Panthers could be
tough though, as they are struggling on offense and only rank #21 in fantasy
points allowed to LBs (20). In last week's game against the Panthers, Seattle
LBs only ended up with 10 solo tackles combined. The return of a healthy Stephen
Davis would definitely help, but he appears to be another dreaded game-time
decision.
- LB Terrell Suggs, Baltimore (vs Cleveland)
Suggs had very little impact last week against McNabb and the Eagles (1 solo,
1 PD), but prior to that game, he had put up 7 sacks in a 4-game stretch.
His tackle numbers as a rookie were abysmal but he's already surpassed them
and even has 3 games with 5 or more solo tackles, thus solidifying his place
in the top 30, especially in leagues that value sacks heavily. The Browns
matchup isn't all that enticing, however, as Cleveland currently ranks #23
in fantasy points allowed to LBs (19.6) and have only given up 3 sacks to
opposing LBs all year long thanks to Garcia's mobility, which masks some of
the problems with the offensive line. These two teams faced each other in
week 1 of this season, and Suggs finished with 5 solos and 1 asst.
- DB Tebucky Jones, New Orleans (@ San Diego)
Jones is off to a great statistical start to his 2004 season despite being
left for dead by most IDP owners this year. His tackling has improved, even
if he's still not a great playmaker. He's got quality starts in each of the
past 2 weeks, but the Chargers have been a tough matchup for DBs and currently
rank #30 in points allowed to DBs (24.9) and #28 in total tackles by opposing
DBs (21.9). Jones was dinged up before the bye week, but he should be relatively
healthy now.
- DB Troy Polamalu, Pittsburgh (vs Philadelphia)
Polamalu started out with 4 straight quality starts, but only has 1 quality
start in the past 3 weeks, including last week against the Patriots when he
finished with just 3 solo tackles and a PD. The Eagles rank #31 in total IDP
points allowed (58.9), and are also #29 in fantasy points allowed to opposing
DBs (25.8). With the lack of a running game, it is surprising that DBs are
doing poorly against the Eagles. In this huge game, we can probably expect
Polamalu or Hope to be shaded over the Terrell Owens' side of the field to
help double cover him. Look for weaker numbers, unless he is fortunate enough
to pick off or sack McNabb.
- DB Gibril Wilson, NY Giants (vs Chicago)
Wilson has been one of the most pleasant surprises this season. He has 32
solo tackles, 2 sacks, and 1 INT in the past 5 weeks, with a quality fantasy
start in each. This week, Wilson will wind up facing the Chicago Bears, who
have practically abandoned the pass since Rex Grossman got injured. Chicago
ranks #26 in fantasy points allowed to DBs (27.2), and #30 in total tackles
by DBs (20.3). These numbers are the result of a pathetic running game and
offense by the Bears.
- DB Mike Minter, Carolina (vs Oakland)
Minter had 14 solo tackles in his first 2 games this year, but he only has
13 solo tackles credited to him in the past 4 weeks. He has 3 quality starts
out of 7 weeks thus far, and has a difficult matchup this week with Oakland
coming to town. The Raiders rank #9 in fantasy points, but gave up the 2nd
fewest points to opposing DBs of any active team in the league last week.
Minter has likely seen some drop-off in his play as a result of the election
issues.
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