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Late Sleepers - The Definitive List

To build upon our previous effort to identify value players and overpriced players, Footballguys.com asked the staff to list some late round sleeper candidates. Grabbing a late round guy that contributes is key to a successful season.

Here were the guidelines:

  • Using AntSports.com Average Draft Position, choose players not in the Top 120 that will outperform their draft position (value players).


  • Pick no more than six value players.

Fourteen writers responded to the call, and here are the results list by number of votes.


Player with Six Votes

WR - Eddie Kennison - KC
ADP - 13.12 / WR51

Dodds on Kennison - This one is a no-brainer. Kansas City had 3,981 passing yards last season. The Chiefs also managed 24 passing TDs. Priest Holmes and Tony Gonzales will take some of those yards, but so will #1 WR Eddie Kennison. Last season Eddie finished as the #24 WR. He remains the #1 WR going into the 2004 season. Why no love? Just for comparison purposes, the 51st WR (Eddie's ADP) would be 600 receiving yards and 3 TDs. Eddie will pass those numbers in his sleep.

Dowling on Kennison - Eddie Kennison has finished 24th and 37th among WRs in the last two seasons. He's the unquestioned #1 Wide Receiver (and 3rd option overall) in one of the leagues most potent passing attacks, an offense that sends him downfield a ton and throws the ball for all 4 quarters. He has good hands and solid yards per reception and assuming his recent wrist injury heals (it should), than he's a safe bet to outperform his draft position in the late -13th round by a significant margin . If you can draft a couple quality WR1 types early, guys like Muhammad and Kennison can give you MUCH better depth than the competition, and you'll be getting yours 3 or 4 rounds later.

Gray on Kennison - Why is the unquestioned top WR on arguably the top offense in the league being selected as the #51 WR? Of course Gonzalez and Holmes take away a chunk of the receptions, but Kennison was the 24th ranked WR in 2003. His situation is almost identical in 2004. He is a true steal.

Smith on Kennison - The # 1 receiver in a great offensive system is going on average in the 15th round of fantasy drafts. That my friends is simply criminal. If you see him at any point from round eleven on, make sure you scoop him up. He won't be explosive but he'll consistently help your squad throughout the season.

Wood on Kennison - Eddie Kennison could be the most undervalued player in fantasy football this year. Kennison quietly enjoyed a solid 2003; finishing 24th. The Chiefs should again be among the league's best offenses, and Kennison remains atop the depth chart. All things being equal, it would take a significant injury for Kennison to fail to outperform his ADP; there's no reason he shouldn't be considered a solid WR3 in 12 team leagues.

Yudkin on Kennison - Kennison ranked as the #24 WR last year and the #37 WR the year before. Now he's going as the #51 WR even though the Chiefs' offense is still one of the best in the league and they did not do much to upgrade their WR corps. He out produced Donte Stallworth (current ADP of WR #25) in both years, yet Stallworth (the #2 WR in New Orleans) is going 100 picks earlier than Kennison (the #1 WR in Kansas City).


Player with Five Votes

WR - David Givens - NE
ADP - 13.01 / WR48

Anderson on Givens - David Givens, at 6'0 and 212 lbs, is the most physical receiver on the Patriots, making him the best option in the red zone. This is best shown by looking at the TD to reception numbers of the New England WRs. Troy Brown averages a TD per 14.25 receptions, Deion Branch averages a TD per 18 receptions, while Givens averages a TD per 6.4 receptions. Take the last six games of the season, and Givens led all Patriot receivers in targets, receptions, yards, and touchdowns. Just entering his 3rd year, regarded by many as the time a WR breaks out, Givens is poised to explode as the #1 option for the World Champions.

Fazio on Givens - Tom Brady has a number of quality options at receiver with Deion Branch, Troy Brown, Daniel Graham, and Christian Fauria. But my personal favorite of the Patriots' receivers is David Givens. Givens finished the year with 34 receptions for 510 yards and 6 touchdowns. He came on strong at the end of the year as 16 of his receptions for 206 yards and 3 touchdowns were in the last 3 games of the regular season. Givens is being drafted after Deion Branch in most fantasy drafts, and with his potential offers a lot of value.

Grant on Givens - Over half of his 34 receptions came in the last three games of the season. He added another 17 in the playoffs. As Troy Brown's role diminishes, Givens should see more action. He could easily see 70 receptions this season, and his 14.0 YPC career average projects out to almost 1000 yards.

Hicks on Givens - David Givens is being drafted lower than his 2003 final ranking (44th). During the Patriots run to the Super Bowl Givens finished with a bang, punching in 33-369-5 over the last 6 games. If Givens comes anywhere near these kind of figures for the full season he will be the steal of the draft.

Yudkin on Givens - Givens came on at the end of last season and was a key contributor in the post season as well. Projecting his stats over a full season (including his playoff performance) would have given Givens 63-828-10 (142 fantasy points), which would have ranked Givens as the #16 WR in 2003. Even in limited use last year, he still ranked as the #44 WR, and his role will only increase this season.


Players with Four Votes

WR - Muhsin Muhammad - Car
ADP - 13.06 / WR49

Dodds on Muhammad - Muhsin Muhammad started 2003 as the #1 WR for the Panthers. Steve Smith benefited as team's doubled Muhammad. By the end of the year, the roles had reversed and it's not surprising that Muhammad shined down the stretch and in the playoffs. In fact, Muhammad ranked as the 19th best fantasy receiver (24th in fantasy points per game) in the last 8 games with 585 yards and 2 TDs. Durability issues are a concern, but in the games he plays, he will far exceed his WR49 draft position.

Dowling on Muhammad - Muhsin finished as the 36th ranked WR in 2003. In the second half of the year he was 24th overall, and he was even better in the playoffs as the run-heavy Panthers threw the ball all over the field with ease. He's being drafted as the 49th WR off the board in the middle of the 13th round, which doesn't make a lot of sense. He's getting up there in age and he misses games to injury from time to time, but he's been better than 49th in points per game for each of the last 4 years. If you can draft a couple quality WR1 types early, guys like Muhammad and Kennison can give you MUCH better depth than the competition, and you'll be getting yours 3 or 4 rounds later.

Grant on Muhammad - What does this guy have to do to get respect? OK, so he's not the most durable guy in the league, but he's posted more than 800 yards in five of his last six seasons. He was the #2 WR in the playoffs last year behind teammate Steve Smith, and his size makes him a much better red zone target. Muhsin is being drafted as a WR5 in most leagues, and his numbers are going to be a lot better than that this year.

Hicks on Muhammad - Many were expecting Muhsin Muhammad to be a June 1 casualty and did their rankings accordingly. Muhammad finished 33rd last year and had a bad year. If one considers his brilliant form through the playoffs (4 games, 15-352-2) he still has plenty to offer and will make a great depth addition to your WR squad.

WR - Justin Gage - Chi
ADP - 15.05 / WR61

Fazio on Gage - Justin Gage has impressed the Bears with his training camp performances to date, developing chemistry with Rex Grossman and potentially supplanting David Terrell as the Bears' WR2. At 6'4" and 210, Gage has both the size and speed to be a nice complement to Marty Booker. At this point in a draft, you are looking for players with a lot of upside. Gage is just that kind of receiver.

Grant on Gage - By the 15th round, most people are looking for kickers, defenses and flyer picks. With White gone, Terrell a total bust, and a questionable running game, Gage could see 800 yards and 5 TDs this year. At WR61 he's not on anyone's radar, yet is easily worth the flyer pick it will take to land him.

Magaw on Gage - He could be a steal of the highest order if he beats out Dave Terrell, who hasn't done much in camp to disabuse Bears followers that he isn't a big time first round bust. He dropped to the 5th round in the '03 draft over concerns about speed... he followed up a pedestrian combine 4.6 with a personal workout 4.4... and due to the fact that he was a power forward (ala Julius Peppers) on the Missou Basketball team and didn't participate in year round football-style strength training and WR drills. Mel Kiper suggested that he would get bigger and stronger, and as he did he had the "right stuff" to emerge as an ascendant WR talent... he HAS, and he IS. This former running QB will remind you of a young Herman Moore when he jumps over DBs, but he has deceptive speed and power to run around, by and through the defense once he gets to the second level, which is often (among league leaders in yards per catch with limited receptions).

Rudnicki on Gage - Has been named the starter in Chicago opposite Marty Booker and looked very good in limited opportunities late last season. Has great size at 6'4", 217 lbs so he should become a favorite target of Rex Grossman in the red zone, but he also has enough speed to stretch opposing defenses. The addition of John Tait to the offensive line and the hiring of Terry Shea as offensive coordinator should lead to a more productive offense and passing game compared to years past. Gage will have no trouble outperforming the WR61 spot, and may finish as high as WR40.


Players with Three Votes

WR - Brandon Lloyd - SF
ADP - 11.02 / WR41

Dodds on Lloyd - Terrell Owens left. Tai Streets left. And although no one outside of the Bay Area has heard of Brandon Lloyd, this is soon going to change. Lloyd continues to get rave reviews at camp and will be option 1, 2 and 3 in the passing game. He has a solid lock on the WR1 job so even if someone else emerges in SF, Lloyd will be on the field all season long. That is great value as WR41.

Grant on Lloyd - Lloyd had some nice games near the end of last season, and his 15.1 yards per reception is pretty impressive. He becomes the #1 receiver on a bad team by default this year, and he should see a lot of passes thrown his way. His numbers will be closer to a WR2 than a WR4, and he'll be a nice spot starter in many leagues.

Wood on Lloyd - Brandon Lloyd didn't fill up the box scores last season but he did continually impress the 49ers coaching staff week in, week out. Lloyd's progress over the 2003 season was so demonstrative that the team felt equipped to let not only Terrell Owens go in free agency, but also Tai Streets. Sure, the 49ers offense has question marks, but Lloyd isn't one of them. Throughout the preseason Lloyd has been recognized as the standout receiver on the team, the only mystery is who will start alongside him; but Lloyd will be the 49ers best fantasy receiver this year.

TE - Daniel Graham - NE
ADP - 12.08 / TE13

Dodds on Graham - Daniel Graham was supposed to be great as soon as he was drafted. Although he has started slowly, his careertook hold last season. He had six games where he got 6 or more targets (3 where he had 8 targets). And that is saying a lot with all of the receiving weapons on the Patriots. Graham scored all 4 of his TDs last season in the last 8 games indicating he improved as the season went on. In fact, Graham was the 5th best fantasy TE in those last 8 games last year. Fast forward to 2004 and Daniel Graham is getting rave reviews in camp at every turn. He has a realistic shot to be a Top 5 TE this year. As the 13th TE off the board, this one has value written all over it.

Rudnicki on Graham - Daniel Graham was compared to Jeremy Shockey when they both were drafted in the first round of the 2002 NFL draft, but it took Graham a little longer to make an impact. He came on strong down the stretch last year and became the top TE target on a team that loves to use their TE. In just his 2nd year in the league, Graham finished as the #11 ranked fantasy TE and should improve on those numbers in his 3rd season. Graham played very well during minicamps and should have little trouble cracking the top-10 among TEs this year.

Wimer on Graham - The coaching staff in New England loves Graham's talent level and receiving abilities - plus his hard work this past offseason. They drafted Ben Watson specifically in order to delegate the blocking duties to Watson - so that Graham could concentrate on his receiving assignments. Christian Fauria is on the PUP to start training camp, and Watson only recently signed, so Graham has all the reps to himself - look for a top 10 finish from Graham (I project him to finish 7th among all TE's in 2004).

WR - Quincy Morgan - Cle
ADP - 13.09 / WR50

Dowling on Morgan - Quincy Morgan was a big disappointment in 2003, and he still finished the season as the 63rd ranked wide-receiver in the league. He dropped balls, grumbled a lot, and in general played poorly. However, he was only 2 TDs and 100 yards from being in the top-40. He's got PLENTY of upside, which could vault him in to the top-24 pretty easily. With his 2003 position coach now the offensive coordinator, and a new QB with a proven track record taking the helm, its easy to surmise that Morgan will out-produce his late-13th round draft position.

Fazio on Morgan - Quincy Morgan was a disappointment to his fantasy owners last year and for that reason has fallen under everyone's radar in 2004. With Jeff Garcia leading the Browns at quarterback, that position is far more stable than it was last season. The Browns have 3 capable wide receivers but with Andre Davis hobbled with an ankle sprain look for Morgan to benefit.

Smith on Morgan - He has had an excellent camp and needs to put together a solid year in order to find a big-money contract for next season. Everything I am hearing on him out of Browns camp has been positive and somebody will step up to become the go-to receiver for new Browns' quarterback Jeff Garcia. I am betting that Morgan will be that player.

TE - Jason Witten - Dal
ADP - 13.12 / TE15

Fazio on Witten - Jason Witten is entering his second year in the NFL as tight end for the Dallas Cowboys. Last season he finished with 35 receptions for 347 yards and 1 touchdown. He started in only 7 games and played in 15. The Cowboys have made some improvements in their offensive game and look for Witten to benefit from them. At this point in the draft, Witten is the 15th tight end off the board. He offers more upside than his compatriots being taken at this point in the draft.

Gray on Witten - Bill Parcells has a strong history of taking talented young TEs and creating fantasy studs (Zeke Mowatt in 1984, Mark Bavaro in 1986, Ben Coates in 1993). Witten fits that mold very well and should easily outperform is ADP.

Hicks on Witten - As a rookie over the final 8 games Jason Witten developed into a quality tight end, posting 31-293-1. If Witten develops further he will walk into the Top 10 tight ends this season. Drafting him this late would feel like theft.


Players with Two Votes

QB - Rich Gannon - Oak
ADP - 11.09 / QB23

Anderson on Gannon - Rich Gannon's surgery to repair a torn labrum in his right shoulder has been declared a success by the team, and he is throwing with power. In fact, new Head Coach Norv Turner has gone so far as to say that Gannon is one of the most accurate passers he has been around. The acquisition of Kerry Collins and last years injury has falsely lowered Gannon's value, even though Collins has stated publicly that he was brought in as a back up. It was just two years ago that Gannon was the NFL's MVP, expect him to explode back on to the scene this season.

Gray on Gannon - It looks like the fantasy community is washing its hands of Rich Gannon. Interesting Just one season ago, Gannon was in some Top 5 lists and almost everyone's Top 10. Sure, the 2003 season was a debacle, but a wise man once said "Things are never as good as they seem nor as bad as they seem." Obviously, Gannon is no Top 5 QB, but he is certainly a capable backup QB in most fantasy leagues.

QB - Tommy Maddox - Pit
ADP - 12.09 / QB26

Gray on Maddox - In 2002, Maddox had some outstanding games and was expected to build upon that last season. Then the wheels fell off the Steelers offense. There was plenty of blame to go around, but most of the shortcomings could be traced to an offensive line that simply could not stay on the field. This season, with a healthy unit up front, Maddox will be far better than his #26 QB ADP.

Rudnicki on Maddox - Maddox had a great 2002 and then a bad 2003, so most fantasy owners will be discounting him this year. However, injuries to the offensive line, an ineffective running game, and some inconsistent play from Plaxico Burress were big reasons for his struggles. The line is now healthier, Duce Staley was brought in to energize the running game, and Plaxico is in a contract year and should be very motivated to have a big season. Staley is a great addition for the value of Maddox because he is a strong blocker and a very reliable receiver out of the backfield. Owners may shy away from Maddox a bit because of the Roethlisberger threat, but the Steelers finally gave Maddox the contract he wanted, and that should be a clear sign that he's their QB for at least the 2004 season.

RB - Jerome Bettis - Pit
ADP - 13.05 / RB54

Levin on Bettis - With his gambling issues behind him, Bettis is ready to start rumbling over people again. He is not the nominal starter as Duce Staley will fill that role, but HC Bill Cowher has a history of filtering in backs, and Bettis should be expect to get a decent number of carries (80-120 or so), a lot of them near the goalline. And if Staley struggles, the team will have no hesitation to rely on Bettis' battering ram style in relief - he is also better suited for garbage time minutes. In larger leagues, he still has great worth from the RB54 as a back you can find in the 13th round.

Wimer on Bettis - Jerome Bettis has been faced with challenges to his PT before, but he always seems to find a way to contribute to the team. While there isn't any doubt that Duce Staley will get the lions' share of the touches because of his superior receiving skills out of the backfield, Bettis should still be good for 100+ carries this season (some of that action around the goalline). Even in a limited, situational role, Bettis should easily outscore the RB 54 slot where he is currently being drafted (I have him projected as the 37th fantasy RB this season).

RB - Mike Alstott - TB
ADP - 13.06 / RB55

Fazio on Alstott - Mike Alstott is back in pads and in training camp after undergoing neck surgery last season. Though he is not a running back who has traditionally rushed for lots of yards, he has been a threat to score when the Buccaneers are near the end zone and has been a factor in the Buccaneers' receiving game. If Alstott remains healthy this season, he is not a back with a lot of upside. The likelihood of him winning the starting job in Tampa Bay is unlikely. But he would be a good bye week fill in player who is a threat to score.

Rudnicki on Alstott - Mike Alstott is healed from the neck injury that forced him to miss most of the 2003 season, and should be back to his old self before too long. Last year was the only time he finished ranked lower than the #36 fantasy RB since entering the league in 1996. Most RBs drafted in the same range as him will only be backups and thus will only produce if the guy ahead of them gets injured. Alstott, however, will be involved in every game and should get the majority of the goalline work along with receptions that make him extra valuable in pt/rec leagues. As the 55th RB drafted, he screams value and has minimal risk at that point in the draft.

QB - Tim Rattay - SF
ADP - 14.06 / QB30

Levin on Rattay - It's VERY late in your draft - 14th round - and everyone else has their QB2. You just noticed your first two QBs share a be week, or you have roster space for a third, or you really wanted to concentrate on other areas than QB2. Well, Tim Rattay is your man - he has been given the reins of the team and, though the receiving crew is inexperienced, the offense was redesigned to take advantage of Rattay's skill set and the team will rely on the pass to win games - esp. in comeback efforts versus the high flying teams and porous defenses in its division. This late, and with that much upside, it is hard to argue.

Wimer on Rattay - Tim Rattay has recovered very quickly from his groin injury - quickly enough to have the benefit of a full training camp before regular season. He's no rookie, either, having been with the 49ers since the draft of 2000. The system Rattay plays in is designed to stretch the field vertically, and he has some young-but-talented WRs to chase down his long bombs in Brandon Lloyd and Rashaun Woods (let's not forget the pass-receiving skills of Kevan Barlow, either). Rattay should crush the QB 30 slot where he's been going - I see him as the 18th-best fantasy QB heading into training camp.

WR - Robert Ferguson - GB
ADP - 14.1 / WR55

Dowling on Ferguson - Ferguson finished 2003 as the 55th ranked Wide Receiver despite spending the first half of the year with an ankle injury that clearly affected his agility. In the second half of the season, he was 35th among receivers, averaging 15.36 yards per catch and catching more than 2/3rds of the balls that came his way. Ferguson had more Total Targets than favorite-Packer Javon Walker after Week 10, and he dropped one ball all season. Considering that Brett Favre loves to spread the ball around, if Ferguson continues to beat out Donald Driver or a starting spot and stays healthy, finishing better than he did last year should be easy.

Hicks on Ferguson - The light finally came on for Robert Ferguson last year. He improved his target to reception ratio from 39% to 63% and Brett Favre started relying on him more often as the season unfolded. If you are looking for late value Robert Ferguson is almost certain to outperform his draft slot.

WR - Jerry Rice - Oak
ADP - 14.12 / WR57

Wood on Rice - Jerry Rice struggled last year, along with the entire Oakland Raiders offense. His 869 yards and 2 touchdowns marked the lowest output he's had as a Raider. Yet, Rice's production was good enough to finish 37th among fantasy receivers. So, with Oakland's offense almost assuredly set to improve this year (Gannon and Collins at QB, a rebuilt O-line); how on Earth can anyone justify Rice being the 57th WR off the board? Jerry Porter is being drafted 26th among WRs, yet Jerry Rice outperformed him in good times (2002) and bad (2003). It makes no sense; use Rice's unwarranted discount to your advantage.

Yudkin on Rice - Last year's #57 WR (Az Hakim) had 500 total yards and 4 TD. Even at 42, Rice, a 13-time Pro Bowler, should be able to hit those levels by Thanksgiving at the latest, especially with Rich Gannon back at QB. Rice should be the #2 WR in Oakland behind Jerry Porter this year. Does anyone REALLY think that there are 56 better WR in the NFL right now?

WR - Michael Clayton - TB
ADP - 15.03 / WR60

Magaw on Clayton - He is both one of the causes of McCardell's holdout (WR1 in '05) and chief beneficiaries of his absence. Clayton has a few traits that make him one of the more pro-ready WRs, despite being an underclassmen... Gruden called him one of the most devastating blocking WRs in decades, Rams HC Martz said he was the most precise route runner in the historic '04 WR class, he is such a physical specimen that LSU HC Nick Saban said he could have been an All-American safety, and his hands and overall athleticism have been likened to Cris Carter. If McCardell continues his futile and ill-advised game of contract chicken with Bruce Allen, the future is NOW for Clayton owners.

Smith on Clayton - A great work-ethic, good size and quickness and with the holdout situation of Keenan McCardell plus the injury woes of Joe Jurevicius is in the right place at the right time. He is definitely going to outperform his draft position in 2004, barring injuries.

WR - Dennis Northcutt - Cle
ADP - 15.06 / WR63

Hicks on Northcutt - Dennis Northcutt isn't likely to set the world on fire this year, but he offers nice depth for a fantasy owner. He has finished 40th the last 2 seasons and even a repeat of those statistics would mean he is good value. With the arrival of Jeff Garcia and a nice new contract there is room for improvement, especially if Quincy Morgan and Andre Davis continue to disappoint.

Wimer on Northcutt - The Browns paid Dennis Northcutt $9 million over 3 years in late May - they didn't pay him all that money to have him sit on the bench. Now, Andre Davis has a high ankle sprain and is out indefinitely - the door is open for Northcutt, because that puts him into the starting lineup in training camp. All those repetitions should help him get comfortable with Jeff Garcia (who was vocal about wanting to play with Northcutt this spring, by the way). Northcutt will end the season with far more fantasy points than the 63rd wide receiver in the NFL - I see him as the 35th best wideout heading into preseason, a borderline #3 and a rock-solid #4 in most leagues.

WR - Ike Hilliard - NYG
ADP - 15.08 / WR65

Smith on Hilliard - He is the # 2 receiver on a team destined to pass a fair bit in 2004. There will be plenty of passes to go around in New York this year and Hilliard was ranked 27th in points per game last year. Getting in towards the end of your fantasy draft this year will be excellent value.

Wimer on Hilliard - Did the Almighty suddenly declare Tim Carter as the starting WR across from Amani Toomer when I wasn't looking? That would be the only reason to see Ike Hilliard go at WR 65, which is his average draft position right now. Hilliard is healthier than he has been in years, and is coming off a solid (but not spectacular) performance of 60/608/6 over 13 games last year (his 2003 season ended week 14, while the Giants floundered into and out of December). He's not likely to flirt with 1,000 yards in 2004, but the guy has caught at least 6 TD passes in 3 of his 6 seasons as a starter (he only played in 2 games in his first year, 1997), including 3 of his last 4 campaigns. He'll finish much higher than 65th on the fantasy points list at year's end.

RB - Ron Dayne - NYG
ADP - 15.11 / RB67

Levin on Dayne - I can't believe I just wrote those 8 letter down as "nice value." But, when you are nearly in the 16th round, you are looking at deep-deep-deep flyer RBs with far-far-far outside chances of tremendous upside. Sounds like Dayne country to me. You have a back who is being talked up immensely by his new head coach and, similar to Jerome Bettis' situation, Dayne has inside the red zone potential to relieve the between the 20s back. He might be used extensively late in games or if the team wants to convert to a smash mouth style and he carries little risk form that draft spot outside of the history of his name in fantasy circles.

Smith on Dayne - Hide your Big Macs and your large fries because the big man is resurfacing in the NFL after appearing on the sides of milk cartons for all of last season. Dayne is going to play some this year as a short-yardage / goalline back at the very least and getting him near the end of your fantasy draft is a great opportunity to land a potential starter. Can he regain his form that helped him dominate his peers while at Wisconsin? Nobody knows right now but he could be insane value at 218th overall if there is something to the preseason hype.


Players with One Vote

TE - Dallas Clark - Ind
ADP - 10.09 / TE10

Anderson on Clark - After a great run, the 32 year old Marcus Pollard is on the down side of his career. Pollard only scored three TDs last season as rookie Dallas Clark began to emerge. Clark was lost for the season after breaking his leg, allowing Pollard to increase his numbers at the end. Clark will be back this season to continue to steal Pollard's stats. As an excellent blocker, Pollard is held on the line to provide protection, while Clark will continue to pad his numbers downfield. Pollard may still be a #1 TE on paper, but Dallas Clark will put up the #1 TE numbers with the Colts.

QB - Mark Brunell - Was
ADP - 10.09 / QB19

Anderson on Brunell - Brunell has already been a Top 10 QB with Jacksonville 3 times in his career. New head coach Joe Gibbs is a passing guru who turned average at best QBs like Jay Schroeder and Mark Rypien into Pro-Bowlers. In Gibb's 12 year stint as the Redskins head coach, he never had an offense that finished with less than 3,200 passing yards (if the strike shortened season is pro rated to 16 games). During those 12 years, the Redskins offense topped 3,600 passing yards, while in the Top 12 in passing yards and passing TDs 9 times. Gibbs wouldn't have brought him into Washington under a multimillion dollar contract if he didn't see Brunell as the right fit for his offense.

QB - Jake Delhomme - Car
ADP - 10.09 / QB20

Grant on Delhomme - Delhomme is not going to throw for 4000 yards this season, but he will put up some solid games. The Panthers play a lot of weak passing defenses this year, and Jake's playoff performance (59-102, 6 TD 1 INT) make him a solid backup/spot starter for your fantasy team.

WR - Rod Gardner - Was
ADP - 11.06 / WR43

Levin on Gardner - As the 43rd WR off the board and in the mid-11th round, Rod Gardner represents excellent value for a WR3/4. With Laveranues Coles still hurting, any slowing down by the WR1 will filter passes directly to Gardner. Even with Coles healthy, Gardner could pull a Keenan McCardell foil to Coles' Jimmy Smith for Brunell. Getting a potential 70 catch, 1G, 6-8 TD receiver in the mid-11th round is a virtual steal.

WR - Joey Galloway - TB
ADP - 11.07 / WR44

Smith on Galloway - Yes a second Buccaneer represents significant value at the receiver position. Galloway has been a major disappointment at times throughout his NFL career but he has been the victim of very poor quarterback over that time as well. Jon Gruden has fallen in love with what he brings to the table and he'll get every opportunity to regain his past glory with the Buccaneers in 2004. He was 26th in fantasy points as recently as the 2002 season so he has proven he can still get it done.

QB - Carson Palmer - Cin
ADP - 12.04 / QB24

Dodds on Palmer - Jon Kitna finished with 3,591 passing yards and 26 TDs last season. And despite this huge year, Carson Palmer was named the starter in the offseason. No competition in camp...nothing. The coaching staff just said that palmer was the man. And no one disagreed. There is one reason for that. Carson Palmer is the superior quarterback...and it is not even close. With a cannon arm and also great touch, Palmer will be one of the best in the league very soon. All the weapons on the Bengals return (Chad Johnson, Peter Warrick, Kelley Washington) and it all points to a huge season for Carson Palmer. His low ADP is likely due to some fear that Kitna could replace him if he struggles. As a person who has watched Carson Palmer mature at USC and now in the NFL, I believe Kitna is only going to see the field if Palmer gets hurt. And since Kitna is not even drafted in most leagues, this duo is among the best handcuffs I have ever seen. Mark my words, many fantasy championships will be won with Carson Palmer on their team this season

RB - Antowain Smith - Ten
ADP - 13.04 / RB53

Wimer on Smith - Antowain Smith comes into Tennessee to provide veteran experience (the guy has two Super Bowl rings) and as an insurance policy against a Chris Brown injury. He should also see some PT in short-yardage situations (can you say "goalline") and when Brown needs a breather. While he won't put up featured-back type numbers, I do think he'll significantly outscore the RB 53 spot where he's currently being drafted, and he should be worthwhile as a bye-week/emergency starter.

QB - Rex Grossman - Chi
ADP - 13.07 / QB27

Anderson on Grossman - Rex Grossman is the clear cut starter in Chicago. Based on the number of QB log jams in the NFL and the fact that Grossman will start all year baring injury (his backup is Zak Kustok), he should finish inside the Top 20. Bears' new head coach Lovie Smith's offensive scheme is going to mirror the explosive scheme run by Vermeil in Kansas City that made stars out of virtual unknowns Trent Green and Kurt Warner.

RB - Tony Hollings - Hou
ADP - 13.07 / RB56

Yudkin on Hollings - Hollings lit it up in his brief collegiate career--649 rushing yards; 92 receiving yards and 11 TD in just 4 games, prompting the Texans to cash in a second round draft pick for Hollings, even though he was recovering from a major knee injury. Houston's offensive coordinator Chris Palmer has indicated that the Texans are planning on getting Hollings 12 to 15 touches per game or around 200 to 240 touches over a full season. Last year, the lowest ranked RB with 200 touches was Marcel Shipp, and he ranked as the #36 RB.

TE - Marcus Pollard - Ind
ADP - 13.08 / TE14

Wood on Pollard - The Colts use two-tight ends in their base offense; and Peyton Manning has consistently utilized his tight ends under OC Tom Moore's guidance. Marcus Pollard has been the mainstay, while his running mate has changed from Ken Dilger to Dallas Clark. Clark, entering his 2nd season, is a talented pass catcher and also a viable fantasy option; but why is Clark going several rounds earlier than Pollard? Remember that Pollard has finished 2nd, 6th and 7th among fantasy TEs in the last 3 seasons and last year, outperformed Clark in the games they played together. Don't mistake Pollard's age as a reason to opt for Clark instead; if there's going to be a top 10 fantasy TE in Indy, it's going to be the guy who has been there/done that three years running.

DT - Seattle Seahawks - Sea
ADP - 14.06 / DT13

Rudnicki on Seattle - The Seahawks already had a great offense so they focused on defense this offseason and brought in a lot of talent. Wistrom and Tubbs will strengthen the defensive line, while Michael Boulware and Bobby Taylor should upgrade the talent level in the secondary, where Marcus Trufant and Ken Hamlin should improve in their second year. Ray Rhodes is a great defensive coach, and the Seahawks have a favorable strength of schedule with 7 easy matchups according to Clayton Gray's USOS.

WR - Kelley Washington - Cin
ADP - 14.08 / WR53

Dowling on Washington - Washington came on like gangbusters at the end of last year scoring 4 touchdowns on a mere 22 catches. What's more, in the last 5 games of the season, he averaged 2.2 catches, 35 yards, and .6 touchdowns per game. Hardly fantastic, until you factor in that Head Coach Marvin Lewis has said that Washington and Warrick are competing for the #2 spot despite Warrick's good 2003 season. Warrick is better served returning kicks and working from the slot, plus he's been hobbled by a knee injury. Whoever gets to lineup opposite Chad Johnson is likely to produce some quality numbers in single-coverage, and my money is on Washington.

RB - Michael Pittman - TB
ADP - 14.12 / RB63

Anderson on Pittman - As the 63rd RB off the Board, Michael Pittman has a huge upside. Only 10 RBs in the history of the NFL have rushed for over 1,000 yards after the age of 30, and the odds are that Charlie Garner won't become the 11th. Pittman will serve a three game suspension to start the season, returning to give Garner a much-needed rest. Pittman has reconciled with his coaches, teammates, and his wife. 2004 could be Pittman's final chance to excel in the NFL, he has his life in order, and he is ready to play. It's now or never, and he knows it. He is a huge value play at the end of the 15th round of your draft.

TE - Jim Kleinsasser - Min
ADP - 15.02 / TE19

Yudkin on Kleinsasser - Vikings' Coach Mike Tice has indicated he plans on expanding Kleinsasser's role in the high octane Minnesota offense this year. Kleinsasser also gets some work out of the backfield, giving him a few extra looks here and there. Given that he ranked as the #10 TE last year with the likelihood of an increased workload, Kleinsasser is a very attractive late round investment in the 15th or 16th round for those that don't want to burn an early pick for a top tier TE.

WR - Rashaun Woods - SF
ADP - 15.02 / WR58

Rudnicki on Woods - Rashaun Woods is entering one of the best situations of any rookie WR from this year's class. The 49ers jettisoned their top-2 WRs from last year and should have a wide open competition to replace them. Woods was a 1-man wrecking crew in college, despite facing constant double teams. He has good size, good speed, soft hands and runs extremely precise routes. This is a bit of a rebuilding year for the 49ers so they will likely be passing very often late in games, which means more garbage time yards and TDs for the rook.

PK - Joe Nedney - Ten
ADP - 16.07 / PK17

Grant on Nedney - The Titans had 149 points from their 3 kickers last year (#3 for kickers). PK17 (John Hall) had just 101 for 2003. I know he's only a kicker, but 3 points a game is fantastic value in the middle of the 16th round.

WR - Terry Glenn - Dal
ADP - n/a

Dodds on Glenn - The Cowboys signed Keyshawn Johnson so that he could run the possession routes over the middle. But make no mistake about it. The #1 fantasy WR on the Cowboys will be Terry Glenn this year. He caught 52 passes last year for 754 yards and 5 TDs. He added another 55 yards rushing. Those numbers were good enough for 27th place among all receivers. And now he is suddenly worse than the 67th WR taken because the over-rated Keyshawn Johnson is now on the team? Last season the Cowboys had three receivers that could go deep (Galloway, Glenn and Bryant) affecting all of their value. This year they only have two (with the departure of Galloway). Look for Glenn (with the increased deep looks) to approach and possibly surpass last year's production. He will be on every one of my fantasy teams this season.

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