IDP - Ear to the Ground

"The cosmos speaks in patterns." - Roger Von Oech (paraphrase of Heraclitus)

"The issues are global, and so interlocked that to consider the problems of one sector oblivious to those of another is to court disaster for the whole."... "Hit 'em where they ain't." - General Douglas MacArthur

The column title Ear to the Ground was meant to connote and convey a sense of rumblings in the distance, and the ability to detect events still far away... as apt a metaphor as any for the job of projecting from college to pro, and rookie to veteran. The emphasis of ETTG will be on young talent (primarily, but not exclusively). As in actual IDP Dynasty leagues and working rosters, the best teams have a mix of young AND veteran players. Occasionally, often even, IDPs will be discussed with potential usefulness in redraft leagues, and overlapping content found here could hold broader interest than just Dynasty leagues. Another thrust of this column will be on the key positions of DE, LB and S, though exceptional DT and CB talent will be covered, for the benefit of leagues that distinguish between DE and DT, as well as S and CB. Defenses that play appallingly bad get the penalty box for two weeks. Coverage will be on a rotating basis (ARI - KC, MIA - WAS).

From a dynasty perspective, the tempo and cadence of insights is usually not given or presented in a rapid-fire, week-to-week manner (the rhythms and waves of events and happenings that wash over the Dynasty IDP landscape tend to not require weekly coverage for each and every team). It is a complex task to find and field the right mix of youth and veteran talent, production and promise on your team... but a large part of the inherent fun of Dynasty IDP leagues is derived from the challenge and increased degree of difficulty of juggling many different positions, talents and AGES spread across the breadth and depth of your roster. The compass of this column will take into account a players pedigree, especially their college, and in some cases, traced back to their prep resumes. But the North Star the compass always points toward is the future. If we extrapolate the arc and trajectory of a players career... where does it point... where does it lead?

Week 16

Arizona - In a bizarre state of affairs in the pitiful NFC West, the Cardinals still have a remote chance of winning their division, and not just playing the role of spoiler, as they did to the Vikings in week 17 of last season. Not to belabor the point, but perhaps HC Denny (Grind 'Em Until You Find 'Em) Green and his charges would have already pulled off a miracle in the desert, if he had not shaken up the starting lineups and drastically altered the chemistry, thereby... in the wake of winning three of four games. After returning to his senses and reinserting QB Josh (Crying Inside Kind Of) McCown, the team has responded, and upset the hapless Rams last week in a lopsided victory... just one game separates them in the standings. As expected, SS Adrian Wilson got to celebrate a breakout season with a well deserved twenty million dollar contract extension that locks up his rights through 2009. He is fourth in the NFL among safeties in solo tackles with 80, averaging under a tackle a game less than league leader, the Pats SS Rodney Harrison. Prize free agent prize, former Bronco DE Bertrand Berry, got a well deserved Pro Bowl selection... his first. Maybe he could have gone last season if he hadn't platooned with Reggie Hayward under Skeletor. If not for a withering onslaught of sacks in the past few weeks by the Colts Freeney, he would share the league lead with Simeon Rice (12.5)... not counting two injury scratches, he has garnered at least a sack in an amazing nine of twelve games, including 2 and 4 sack efforts. The coaches have been very pleased with his positive, veteran influence on the younger defenders, especially rookie DT Darnell Dockett. The Florida State record holder for negative yardage stops hasn't had more than 3 solo tackles since his 8 solo outburst week 3, and his 3 sacks have been solid if unspectacular... his lightning quick first step, catlike reflexes and short area burst to knife through gaps and close on the QB, along with his pocket crushing power, give him a bright future. Dockett should become a force in the interior for years, and emerge as one of the special talents at his position, along with the Bears Tommie Harris and the Titans Randy Starks. Another tremendous prospect is high second round pick (2.01) and former Auburn All-American OLB Karlos Dansby... he is a terrific athlete who was a top 30, nationally recruited WR coming out of high school. Like the Packers Nick Barnett, he is a converted safety. Dansby is rangy, though a little undersized and lacking in functional strength... he should become a monster once he matures a little and fills out from year round, pro style conditioning and strength training. He came on strong in the second half. In the first six games, he never had more than 4 tackles, and only 1 sack combined during that span. In the seven games he has suited up in since, he has had LESS than 4 tackles only once (including 7, 7 & 8 in his last three)... as well as four of his five sacks (5 sacks tied for the lead among rookies with Vikings DE Kenechi Udeze). While I disagreed at the time, it is important to remember that many scouts prior to the draft viewed him as the equal of Jonathan Vilma and D.J. Williams as a prospect, and some thought he had superior head room for upside. With an exciting trio of WRs comprised of record setting Anquan (Master Kwan) Boldin, high flying Larry Fitzgerald and former first rounder Bryant Johnson, the Cardinals may be about to turn the corner back towards respectability, and the arrow is pointed up looking forward to the 2005 season... Green has some excellent cornerstones with which to build his defense around.

Atlanta - DE Patrick Kerney and WLB Keith Brooking both made it to the Pro Bowl... DT Rod Coleman was robbed of a berth, possibly because he came from the AFC and he is not a household name to NFC fans yet. A hidden factor and secret weapon in the Falcons resurgence was the addition of ex-Packer Ed Donatell in the offseason, who has stressed disciplined gap control and accountability for assignment responsibility. Though an integral playmaker in defensive-minded HC Mora and Donatell's scheme conception, Brooking's owners have suffered some from the hit his IDP stats have taken in the position switch... he has fallen off from his top three finish in solos tackles from '01-'03. MLB Chris Draft (who Brooking traded positions with) had an even more massive drop off in stats, plummeting like biotech and networking stocks did in the bear market. Good looking fourth round SLB/MLB Demorrio Williams will likely replace either Draft or SLB Matt Stewart in '05. Keep a close eye on him in training camp next season for signs that he has ascended to the starting role, in order to get a jump on your opponents. The former Cornhusker has Derrick Brooks-like athleticism and closing speed, and the requisite talent and intensity to be a BIG TIME playmaker. If he is given the chance to get his foot in the door, watch him break it down. With a little seasoning, he could prove to be a similar long term prospect to talents with more notoriety... one reason he doesn't command the front line name recognition of some of his peers is that he did a two year JUCO stint before attending Nebraska, and was not a highly recruited prep. Despite the lack of fanfare preceding him, he proceeded to break the school records for sacks and stops behind the LOS by a LB. The brilliant second year SS Bryan Scott actually leads Brooking for the team lead in solo tackles (78), though he has not got as many big plays as last season... 2 sacks, but only 1 INT and 1 FF. He ran the fastest 100 m in the state as a PA prep, was a safety who multitasked as a supersized (219 lb) CB at Penn State, and looked like he was playing at a different speed at times last season. While not the thumper Rodney Harrison is, he has the skill set and talent to be one of the top safeties in the league. Much is expected of the 1.08 selection in the '04 draft as well... the nitrous-fueled DeAngelo Hall, who might be faster than his slightly more famous former teammate, Michael Vick. He was a higher ranked sprinter nationally than Scott, and has phenomenal return skills honed as a punt returner, and knows what to do with the ball once he gets his hands on it... a threat to take it to the house every time.

Baltimore - There have been some great pass thieves over the years... Paul Krause, Dick "Night Train" Lane, Emlen Tunnell, Ronnie Lott, Rod Woodson, Deion Sanders, yet in this historic season Ed Reed is closing in on the NFL INT return yards for a season record (349, by Charlie McNeil of the pre-merger Chargers in '61). His 8 INTs (along with Bengals CB Tory James 7 INTs) have a commanding league lead. Dating back to his Miami days, the Ravens SS Reed has put on display under the national microscope of big time programs, among the most finely developed opportunistic instincts of any player in the nation... he is having a Johnny-on-the-spot career. Reed and Steelers ILB James Farrior are probably the two favorites for the 2004 NFL Defensive Player of the Year award. The Ravens are now 1-3 in their last four games, not how they thought they would finish the season. MLB and multi-Defensive Player of the Year Ray Lewis broke his wrist Sunday night against the Colts (he only missed a series), and is expected to go with some kind of cast. How effective he will be is indeterminate... but it is frightening to think of what it would take to sideline the future first ballot Hall of Famer... he is now at an even 100 solo tackles having surpassed the injured Zach Thomas of the Dolphins, who looked unreachable as recently as the start of this month. Reed and Lewis both made it to the Pro Bowl, as well as two additional Ravens, OLB Terrell Suggs and CB Chris McAlister, though the latter might have snuck in on reputation more than his usually formidable, shutdown, man-on-man skills... he got toasted more often this season than a family-sized box of waffles.

Buffalo - The Bills are firing on all cylinders, and have put up the most points in a five game span in franchise history, they are scoring TDs on special teams... and on defense. They are now 8-2 after an 0-4 start, are one of the hottest teams in the league, and like the Panthers, a team nobody wants to face this time of the season. WLB Takeo Spikes was a slam dunk to get his second consecutive paid vacation to Hawaii... he has been a wrecking ball during the Bills five game win streak... 28 tackles, 2 sacks, 3 INTs, 3 FFs, 1 FF, 9 PDs and 1 TD. His running mate, MLB London Fletcher, was not so recognized. The ex-Ram undrafted free agent has also had an impact season, and help comprise one of the best LB duos in the NFL, but it is hard to argue with the selections of Farrior and Lewis ahead of him for AFC ILB representative honors. Second year CB Terrence McGee also made the Pro Bowl... as a kick return specialist. He began the year as a nickel CB, but after ex-Eagle and Dolphin Troy Vincent went down for a lengthy injury hiatus, he has put together an improbable run which has seen him get 73 solo tackles, good for second on the team (after Fletcher's 91 solos), and good for second in the league among CBs, behind another sophomore... the Seahawks first rounder from '03, Marcus Trufant. CB Nate Clements did a fantastic job of shutting down Chad "Pepto Bismal" Johnson, holding him to 2 catches for 10 yards. Though not the youngest deep patrol in the business, the Bills could have one of the most experienced and best, with SS Lawyer Milloy returning from injury, and Vincent looking like he will make a smooth transition to the inside late in his career, ala Ronnie Lott, Rod Woodson and Aeneas Williams. DE Aaron Schobel has 8 sacks (after getting 8.5 in '02 and 11.5 in '03), and is one of the better young DEs in the AFC.

Carolina - Julius Peppers (Lonely Hearts Club Band) nearly caught a TD pass on offense... he did get a TD on a midair FR. That would have been his third defensive TD this season, except for a game earlier in the season in which he stumbled near the goal line on the longest FR return in NFL history that DIDN'T go for a TD... 3 TDs would have been high up on the list for defensive TDs scored in a season... AT ANY POSITION, including CB, S and LB. For a DE to engage in this kind of a scoring outburst requires a long perspective to appreciate. Peppers athleticism at his position may well be unprecedented... and the scary thing to NFC South O-Linemen and QBs is that he is just beginning to learn the game and is capable of becoming much better. He was voted into his first Pro Bowl in the third season of what is already a distinguished beginning to his professional career. More surprising is that the former Tar Heel power forward has done a lot of damage in the second half of the season without the benefit of elite DT Kris Jenkins (IR) and Mike Rucker (ineffectiveness). He has also given ample evidence that he is not just an up the field pass rush specialist, as he is third in the league among DEs, behind only Charles Grant and Patrick Kerney in solo tackles (51). MLB Dan Morgan had an incendiary beginning to the season, and was for the first time consistently stringing together big numbers in line with his elite pedigree (part of the Miami MLB lineage that extends from Mike Barrow and Ray Lewis through to Jonathan Vilma)... until suffering a few concussions around mid-season... continuing a trend of missing at least a months worth of games for now four seasons in a row (half a season one of those years). Despite having a noggin as fragile as a crystal chandelier, he recently came back strong, and has had 9 tackle games in successive games now, including a week 14 outburst against St. Louis in which he also had 2 INTs and 1 FF... he was rewarded with a Pro Bowl trip, but the disturbing trend of recurring concussions has to be of concern to dynasty owners... and prospective ones. WLB/SLB Will Witherspoon has quietly had a brilliant campaign, leading the team in solo tackles (78), while getting 2 sacks, 4 INTs, 1 FF and 14 PD. CB Chris Gamble has had an up and down season, but has really been coming on of late. The Saturday night special against the Falcons was like a microcosm of his rookie season. He got burned for a couple TDs, yet bounced back with 2 INTs (just missing a third). The former Buckeye two-way star is the subject of this weeks In-Depth Profile. Only SS Ed Reed and the Bengals CB Tory James have more than his 6 INTs (which lead the NFC)... along with fellow rookie Dunta Robinson half dozen thefts, Falcons speed merchant DeAngelo Hall and Bears nickel CB Nathan Vasher (5 picks), the rookie CBs have acquitted themselves well in 2004. That bodes well in this season that was proclaimed by the scouts to be the "Year of the Receiver"... somebody has to guard the Michael Claytons, Roy Williams and Larry Fitzgeralds of the world. MLB Dan Morgan goes to Pro Bowl for his first time. At the time the Panthers moved up at the end of the first round of the '04 draft to get him, Gamble was considered by some scouts a "gamble" as he was thought to be raw in run support, but he is currently tied for third on the team in solos (59) with SS Mike Minter.

Chicago - MLB Brian Urlacher was labeled the most overrated player in the league in a much publicized Sporting News article, though HC Lovie Smith did his best to deflect the criticism... he was placed on IR and had to be shut down for the rest of the season recently. One factor that belies the critics... the Bears were beginning to flash signs of becoming a dominant defense when he was able to suit up, and clearly weren't the same team when he was out. WLB Lance Briggs isn't going to Hawaii, but he looks like he could be needing to book reservations as soon as '05. Though he put on record his high goals, and stated before the season started that he wanted to out-tackle former Pro Bowl MLB Brian Urlacher, it is likely that he exceeded the expectations of many (though probably not his own). He paced all NFC LBs in solos (94), and is fourth in the NFL, ahead of Pro Bowlers Derrick Brooks and London Fletcher. Strangely for an athlete that was good enough to play RB and punt on his high school team, he has had no big plays over the course of the season, being shut down in the sack, INT and FF dept. When Smith was DC for the Rams, they led the league in turnovers in '03. Smith cut his teeth in the Cover Two under Tony Dungy in Tampa Bay, and the fact that Briggs plays the Brooks role in the Bears hybrid defense bodes very well for his future. Once the current vanguard of aging stars like Donnie Edwards, Zach Thomas and Ray Lewis retires, he has the look of a potential perennial top 5 LB. It should be interesting to see how good the D-Line can be now that rookie DTs Tommie Harris and "Tank" Johnson have a year of seasoning, former incumbent DEs Alex Brown and Michael Haynes received a season under Smith's tutelage to become acclimated to the new system, and prized free agent DE acquisition O-Gun (who came at the price of former go to WR Marty Booker) will be available for the entire preseason and training camp. Getting Urlacher and FS Mike Brown back from IR shouldn't hurt. CB Charles "Peanut" Tillman missed much of this season... in case some in your leagues "forget" about him by looking back no further than his artificially injury-truncated '04 season stats, jump on him in dynasty leagues. He has the physical ability to be one of the top CBs in the NFL, and is one of the centerpieces in a system that has made tackling machines and IDP stars of CBs Ronde Barber (TB), Nick Harper (IND) and Jerametrius Butler (STL).

Cincinnati - The Bengals defense didn't actually play as bad as the final score might indicate, as the Bills Jason Peters scored on a blocked punt, and WLB Takeo Spikes scored on a INT return. Nevertheless, the loss insures that Cincy will have gone fourteen straight seasons without a winning record... the longest such futility record after the Saints first twenty seasons (Tampa Bay also stumbled "out of the gate" by losing fourteen seasons in a row). Ex-Raider CB Tory James has been a success story for HC Marvin Lewis, and the decision to go after him in free agency looks better and better, culminating in the news that he will be a Pro Bowl representative for the team with the Halloween-inspired uniform colors. SS/FS Madieu Williams came to the team with the second round pick acquired from the Patriots in the Corey Dillon trade. He may well be the top IDP prospect on the team, leading the team in solo tackles (78), despite not really having a true position for most of the year. To put this in context, due to the complexity of the modern game and the speed of the game, many rookie become overwhelmed learning the responsibilities of just ONE position... Williams had to learn assignments for CB, FS and SS. DE Justin Smith flashes potential on occasion, but he hasn't always seemed to consistently play up to the level one would associate with his high first round pedigree. Rookie WLB/MLB Landon Johnson could be worth monitoring closely in the offseason, if it looks like he will become entrenched at the MLB position, after sharing the duties with fellow '03 day one pick, MLB Caleb Miller.
Cleveland - Oh well... there is always that long snapper Pro Bowl niche that still needs to be filled.

Dallas - FS Roy Williams was involved in a play that may have been one of the most pivotal of the whole season. After roughly corralling the Eagles star WR Terrell Owens and twisting his ankle, NFL fans breathed a collective sigh of relief. TO is stuck on 14 TDs, and since it has been learned that he will not be able to finish the regular season (but might be back if the Eagles make it past the NFC Championship game, which they have been unable to do in the preceding three seasons), the bizarre spectacle of plus sized Andy Reid in black spandex tights will not be forthcoming. That would have been a sight hard to unremember (once the toothpaste is out of the tube, you can't put it back), and we may never know how big a bullet we collectively dodged on that one.. It now looks like the league won't have to make post-traumatic stress counselors available to game attendants and viewers of Philly games after all. In other news, there are more whispers that if SS Darren Woodson is forced to retire due to a balky herniated disc, one alternative would be able to slide Williams in to his more natural position, possibly trying Keith Davis at FS. The former Sooner great and Collegiate Defensive Player of the Year was just selected to his second Pro Bowl, but he could be FAR, FAR, FAR more valuable to his IDP owners from SS, where he could blow up plays from sideline-to-sideline. At a listed 235, he is bigger than many LBs, and from the box could let his superior playmaking instincts take over. DE Greg Ellis is having a career season with 9 sacks (he had 8 in '03). DT La'Roi Glover made the Pro Bowl, in a questionable choice over the Falcons DT Rod Coleman. Earlier in the season it looked like WLB Brady James, the second year former fourth rounder from '03 and LSU All-American, might supplant the incumbent Dexter Coakley, but they platooned for much of this season and the youngster was unable to get the traction needed to dislodge the still ridiculously fast veteran. James garnered the rep coming out of school that he had the athleticism, versatility and skill set to play any of the three LB positions... he could be a special player if given the chance next season, and is worth tracking in the offseason to see if that becomes manifest... we'll keep our Ear to the Ground.

Denver - Rookie Defensive Player of the Year candidate, WLB D.J. Williams has had some outstanding individual efforts of late, though the team has not fared as well. The '04 first rounder and second LB taken in the draft (after his teammate, the Jets MLB prodigy, Jonathan Vilma) had 12 tackles, 1 sack and 1 FF... he has been on fire in the last month, rising all the way to top 15 in the league among LBs in solo tackles (80), and pacing all rookies, just ahead of Madieu Williams (CIN) Teddy Lehman, with 78 and 75 solos, respectively. CB Champ Bailey held up his end of the bargain in the Skeletor engineered Clinton Portis trade with the Redskins... he goes to the Pro Bowl for his fifth time. Though some critics think that with the new, more rigorous enforcement of the five yard rule, true shut down CBs, despite their myriad gifts, are restricted by rule from doing what they used to, and thus barred from making the kind of impact they may once have been able to... under the former rules. The Broncos defense is closing with a whimper after starting with a bang... they are 3-5 in their last eight games. SS John Lynch had a bounce back year, and made it back to the Pro Bowl... the change of scenery wasn't so kind to his ex-teammate Warren Sapp, who has fizzled in his miscast role as a 3-4 DE for the Raiders... he won't be going to Hawaii for the first time in nearly a decade, signaling a changing of the guard at that position. Deep patrol running mate, FS Kenoy Kennedy is second on the team in tackles (72)... ahead of MLB Al Wilson. The Bronco veteran is not old, but he has played a lot of games for Denver and dating back to his tenure with Tennessee as a collegiate, and he may be equivalent to the RB who has a lot of tread worn off his tires. DE Reggie Hayward led the way with 6.5 sacks... more was expected after doing better in '03 while splitting time with since departed Bertrand Berry... but he ended up getting in a platoon in 2004, too.

Detroit - Although many think of the Lions as young and chalk up their losses to growing pains and inexperience, two of their top three tacklers are on the wrong side of 30... 31 year old Steelers MLB retread Earl Holmes, as well as 34 year old FS Brock Marion, the long time Cowboy and Dolphin. Detroit does have some talented youth on the D-Line, starting with DT Shaun Rogers, likely the class of interior defensive linemen in the NFC... he is a run stuffer extraordinaire and pocket collapsing maelstrom who is one of the ascendant talents at his position in the NFL (the Jags twin terrors Marcus Stroud and John Henderson and the Falcons Rod Coleman are pretty good, too)... a probable first round talent, he fell in his draft class due to a broken foot. Rogers development and emergence were recognized with his first Pro Bowl. A youth movement is also evident at LB, where SLB and likely MLB-of-the-future Teddy Lehman was solid, if unspectacular, and for the most part was as good as advertised. He seemed to get more comfortable as the year wore on, as one would expect for a rookie as he becomes acclimated to the increased complexity and unprecedented speed of the game. Second year SLB Boss Bailey (he has the athleticism and versatility to excel at WLB) languished through a season destroyed by a third major knee injury. The two main reasons he dropped to the second round of the '03 draft were due to the red flag of two prior knee reconstructions, as well as questions about his tackling. The latter concerns were for the most part answered in a stellar rookie campaign, but the former still remain. Champ's younger brother possesses off-the-charts measurables that might be the best in the NFL at his position... he is just an whisker slower than his world class athlete/CB sibling, carrying significantly more weight, and has a vertical jump that would have given Darrell "Dr. Dunkenstein" Griffith, David Thompson and Dominique Wilkins a run for their money. He is expected to be back all the way in 2005, despite being slow to heal this year (didn't we hear that with WR Charles Rogers collar bone?), and COULD be a great one if he can stay healthy... with IF being the operative word. IDP owners will just have to keep their fingers crossed big time. CB Dre Bly was just awarded his second consecutive Pro Bowl. Torry Holt's younger brother Terrence could be an interesting long term dynasty prospect in the secondary, and has the versatility and skill set to play either safety position. Though not a burner, most scouts project him to be a better fit at FS, after Marion hangs his cleats up.

Green Bay - MLB Nick Barnett has had an uneven season, but has saved his best ball of the season for the end... in part team insiders observed, to honor the memory of his deceased father. He is prone to over-agressiveness, over-pursuing and biting hard on play action, but he is a great athlete and has the speed of a former converted safety in college. If he can work the kinks and rough edges off, he could be a perennial top 5-10 LB for IDP owners in upcoming seasons. FS Darren Sharper made one of the most savvy and most heads up plays in the league this season, on either side of the ball, in a bizarre and rare double fumble... these plays will be henceforth be referred to in this space as a dumble fumble... a Jaguars O-Lineman got in double trouble when he picked up QB Byron Leftwich's fumble nonchalantly (thinking it was an incomplete pass... his teammates walked away from the ball)... before the whistle had blown. The brother of Houston ILB Jamie seized the opportunity by snatching it away from the unwitting Vince Manuwai, and capitalized with a TD. Sharper had been struggling with an in-season knee injury for the past few games, and had not been making as many impact plays as usual. After showing some initial promise, and causing team officials to think they had upgraded the SS position in the offseason (they released both former "starters" Marques "No, I'm not going to leave the car" Anderson of the Raiders and Antuan Edwards, who landed with the Rams after a short stint with the Dolphins), former Bengal Mark Roman has been having a train wreck kind of second half. Maybe they will draft an upgrade in April... a run stuffing monster like Georgia underclassman Thomas Davis could make an instant impact, be the steadying presence alongside All-Pro Sharper (enabling the playmaker to roam that Cheesehead nation has been looking for seemingly since LeRoy Butler abruptly and prematurely retired due to a chronic neck injury), and change the complexion and tenor of the entire defense. First round CB Ahmad Carroll has had an up and down debut, typical for a rookie corner. He flashed some of his potential earlier in the season in front of a national audience, almost single-handedly beating the Rams with a FR/TD and a subsequent INT.

Houston - CB Dunta Robinson has emerged not only as one of the top Defensive Rookie of the Year candidates, but is playing at a high enough level to warrant Pro Bowl talk. He had 7 tackles, 1 sack, 1 INT (his sixth of the season) and a FF that was returned by a teammate for a 60 yard TD... he has 3 sacks in the past two games, and it makes you wonder what he could have done if turned loose for the whole season (only a handful of CBs in the league had as many sacks)... or what he could do if fully unleashed in 2005. HC Dom Capers called him the best rookie defender in the '04 class, and a strong case could be made for the former collegiate safety. He doesn't have prototypical size, but he has a hard-nosed mindset, and is a very physical, active and determined presence in run support... he knows how to bring the pain. The 1.10 pick, second CB, third DB and overall defensive player selected, was called one of the best tackling CBs he has graded in recent memory, and he has some attributes in common with Vikings CB Antoine Winfield. In time, he could inherit the mantle as one of the toughest pound-for-pound tacklers in the NFL. One of the best signs of how much respect is accorded him is that opposing OCs and QBs choose instead to pick on former Pro Bowl CB Aaron Glenn. In the past six games, he leads all NFL CBs in solos (38), and for the season is tied with the Packers CB Al Harris for the league lead in passes defensed (19), making him even more valuable in leagues that include PD in in their league's scoring system... and lending more credence to the scout chatter that he was worthy of Pro Bowl inclusion. The jury is still out on DE/OLB conversion Jason Babin, but if the light goes on, he could be a perennial DD sack man from the perimeter. Historically, projects like this can offer inconsistent tackle production. Rookie SS Glenn Earl has been leaving the field on passing downs... he would have been one of the top SS prospects in the nation if not suffering a knee injury late in his Notre Dame career. Recently there was talk that he is expected to become a three-down defender as soon as next season, if not immediately. Definitely worth stashing on your roster if you don't have better options.

Indianapolis - DE Dwight Freeney got 2 more sacks in the Sunday night special, making 8 in the last three weeks... this surge has propelled him to the NFL lead with 15 sacks. He put on a clinic against the Ravens (also pressuring QB Kyle Boller repeatedly), which was surprising given that future Hall of Fame LT Jonathan Ogden is usually harder to penetrate than an NSA codex. The former Syracuse rocket makes the agents in Matrix bullet time look languid and pokey. His 39 sacks in the first three seasons of his career are second to only Reggie White (52) and Derrick Thomas (43.5) in NFL history. He is the first Colt defensive player to go to the Pro Bowl since former USC (and Glendale, CA prep) great Duane Bickett. Freeney claims to be seeing more single blocking than at any time since his rookie season, due to the success of his linemates... DE Robert Mathis (10.5), DT/DE Raheem Brock (5.5) and DT Montae Reagor (5) have helped propel the team to an AFC best 43 sacks, averaging nearly 4 sacks a contest in the current seven game win streak. SS Mike Doss has had a difficult year... an injury in the very first Thursday night game of the season foreshadowed an injury-riddled, sophomore slump season. His rookie season's sensational debut is much more indicative and reflective of the kind of consistent production he is capable of when healthy. Doss had a huge game in the Sunday night special against the Ravens. Oft-injured FS Idrees Bashir (Indy was about as banged up in the secondary earlier in the season as the Pats have been of late) went down again in just one of a litany of absences in a short career punctuated with many injury related deactivations. FS Bob Sanders, the Colts first pick in the '04 draft (in the second round, the same as electrifying rookies Michael Boulware and Madieu Williams, and the same round as Mike Doss, Ken Hamlin and Bryan Scott were taken in '03), is expected back after about a month long absence from a strained knee. If he can go full speed, the "Hitman" can be a difference maker, and the players around him better. The former Iowa star deep patrol ace and intimidator has measurables very similar to the Steelers SS Troy Polamalu... and he just got selected to his first (of many) Pro Bowls. It looked like Cato June had won the WLB job, but after suffering an injury the scout chatter became louder that rookies Gilbert Gardner and even Kendyll Pope could be in the mix. The former Michigan safety leads the team in solo tackles, and if he becomes entrenched during the offseason, he could build on this season in '05. CB Nick Harper is constantly dinged, so look for CBs Donald Strickland (currently on IR) and Joseph Jefferson... also constantly dinged but younger and cheaper... to be the starting CBs next season. Readers who frequent this space know that the right Cover Two CB can be worth their weight in gold.

Jacksonville - The Cardiac Cats didn't redline the pacemakers two weeks ago against the Bears in a 22-3 outcome. For once, when Byron Leftwich had the ball in his hands during the end game, it wasn't accompanied by the familiar refrain... "CLEAR". This week they were back to their old tricks, defeating the Packers in freezing weather by the slender thread of three points... these cats need an industrial strength defibrillator with a chainsaw cord. OLB Daryl Smith was hobbled by an in-season knee injury, but he looked pretty fast on his sack/safety two weeks ago in Chicago. After Jets MLB Jonathan Vilma (NYJ), he graded out as one of the consensus top MLB/ILB prospects in the draft, along with the Saints MLB Courtney Watson... Smith has shown the requisite athleticism and versatility to make the transition to OLB... he has 2 sacks, 1 safety and 1 FR in the past two weeks. He could be a better long term prospect than fellow OLB Akin Ayodele. SS Donavin Darius was at the epicenter of controversy over a horrific hit, since defended by HC Jack Del Rio, one which upon replay LOOKED like an intentional clothesline, and could have left WR Robert Ferguson seriously injured... his own teammate, DT Marcus Stroud, was getting in his face, and it didn't look like he was exhorting him to hit harder. Stroud, by the way, received his second Pro Bowl invite. Fellow DT John Henderson is comparable in his physical gifts and athleticism, and could be a serial Hawaii vacationer himself in upcoming seasons. MLB Mike Peterson is one of the best in the game, and though closing in on 30, he has played most of his career at WLB... until coming to Jacksonville in '03 and being converted to the middle by Del Rio. Peterson looks and plays like he still has a lot of football ahead of him, and he runs like someone with fresh legs. He finished the season among the league leaders in solo tackles, and he is the kind of MLB capable of getting big plays like sacks, INTs and FFs during the course of the season. There is speculation that Smith could eventually take over for Peterson, but that not appear to be an immanent development. CB Rashean Mathis has the talent to be one of the best safeties in the NFL... alas, for his owners... his IDP stats are suffering due to the fact that he ALSO has the athleticism and versatility to be one of the best CBs in the league.

Kansas City - Ouch! These guys can't stop anybody. They are the Blutarski's of NFL defenses, and get a grade of 0.0 for the '04 season. Double secret probation on top of the penalty box until-further-notice status. The Chiefs have been on Sports Center a lot this season... for all the wrong reasons.

Defensive Rookie of the Year Watch

The watchlist attempts to forecast who the top defensive players are in actual football terms, as well as take into account the most productive IDP talent. The emphasis is on watchwords like productivity, opportunity, consistency and IMPACT. Giants SS Gibril Wilson was close to emerging as the #1 overall IDP rookie at the point he went down with a shoulder injury. When healthy, he showed more than enough to avoid an incomplete... but in missing roughly half the season, assigning any kind of grade becomes problematic. Redskins FS Sean Taylor garnered many accolades in college and from scouts leading up to the draft (best safety prospect ever?), but for various reasons was brought along slowly by HC Gibbs and has too much ground to make up on the 2004 leaders. Be that as it may, Taylor can be as good as he wants to be, and has the raw athleticism and pure talent to emerge as the top IDP from this class... whether he has the desire to fulfill his promise as one of the all time greats remains an open question. The freakishly versatile Seahawks SS Michael Boulware had stats that were blunted by part-time duty for most of the season... owners lucky enough to have him in '05 will get to discover what kind of damage he can do as a starter over the course of an entire season. Colts FS Bob Sanders reported late (the LAST rookie to come to terms with his team), was inactive in the first half while rehabbing a broken foot... in just a few games (before going down due to a sprained knee), the "Hitman" made his presence felt in a big way, showing he could be one of the team's top defenders, immediately upgrade the overall defense, and elevate the level of play of his teammates like the great ones. The same could be said for the favorite in this space... the electrifying Jets MLB Jonathan Vilma. The stellar play of former first round D-Linemen DeWayne Robertson, Shaun Ellis and John Abraham, the addition of free agent LB Eric Barton from the Raiders, and the drafting of SS and fellow Rookie Defensive Player of the Year candidate Erik Coleman have all been instrumental in the spectacular turnaround of Gang Green. Ever since the former Miami All-American and top LB taken in the '04 draft was pressed into service due to Sam Cowart's early season knee injury, he has made all the calls, handled the pre-snap reads and adjustments like a five year veteran, and been at the center of the Jets resurgence... they are the #1 defense in the AFC and second in the league in points allowed (after Philly).

The Bengals brilliant DB Madieu Williams is somewhat misunderstood and as a result underappreciated, due to being bounced around from CB/SS/FS and being a player without a position earlier in the season, sometimes starting, sometimes not. Nonetheless, his overall contribution during the season in a pure statistical productivity sense has been superior to just about any IDP in his rookie class. The highly regarded and prodigiously athletic Broncos WLB D.J. Williams has been a steady force all season... his former Miami teammate and present Redskins FS Sean Taylor garnered similar accolades in college and leading up to the draft (best safety prospect ever?), but for various reasons was brought along slowly by HC Gibbs and has too much ground to make up on the 2004 leaders. The Texans CB Dunta Robinson has put up phenomenal numbers in the past month... many thought he was worthy of a Pro Bowl berth, and his late season surge (all the way to second overall) may be enough to overtake those other rookie IDP leaders at the top. Panthers CB Chris Gamble has also been on fire in the second half of the season, putting up similar solo tackle and INT numbers. Of the top DEs, Vikings DE Kenechi Udeze started from wire-to-wire, and shared the lead among rookies in sacks (5). He averaged about 2 solos a game, but it has been reported recently that he will require surgery on the shoulder he injured prior to USC's Rose Bowl appearance... Udeze was a very active run defender for the Trojans, and flashed some serious burst and athleticism in his rookie stanza. Along with stud DT Kevin Williams, they should be racing to the QB in Norris division battles for many years to come, and comprise the nucleus of Purple People Eaters 2.0 iteration. 2005 should be the time to shine for Saints DE Will Smith. DTs Randy Starks of the Titans, Darnell Dockett of the Cardinals and Tommie Harris of the Bears all showed they belonged, though the typical rate of maturation and development for DTs unfolds at a different tempo than most other positions.

(All Stats YTD)

Jonathan Vilma (MLB/ILB - NYJ)... 69 solos, 22 assists, 1 sack, 2 INTs
Dunta Robinson (CB - HOU)... 64 solos, 12 assists, 3 sacks, 6 INTs, 2 FFs
DJ Williams (WLB - DEN)... 80 solos, 19 assists, 2 sacks, 1 FF
Madieu Williams (FS/SS - CIN)... 78 solos, 11 assists, 1 sack, 3 INTs, 1 TD
Sean Taylor (FS - WAS)... 54 solos, 12 assists, 1 sack, 4 INT, 1 FF, 1 DUI
Erik Coleman (SS - NYJ)... 60 solos, 23 assists, 2 sacks, 3 INTs
Gibril Wilson (SS - NYG)... 49 solos, 7 assists, 3 sacks, 3 INTs, 1 FF
Michael Boulware (SS - SEA)... 39 solos, 13 assists, 1 sack, 5 INTs, 1 FF, 1 TD
Chris Gamble (CB - CAR)... 59 solos, 4 assists, 6 INTs, 1 FF
Karlos Dansby (SLB - ARI)... 40 solos, 14 assists, 5 sacks, 1 INT, 1 FF
Teddy Lehman (SLB - DET)... 75 solos, 9 assists, 1 sack, 1 INT, 1 FF
Kenechi Udeze (DE - MIN)... 27 solos, 8 assist, 5 sack, 1 FF

Standing on the Verge (of Gettin It...)

Daryl Smith (SLB - JAX)
Bob Sanders (FS - IND)
Courtney Watson (MLB - NO)
Landon Johnson (WLB - CIN)
Tommie Harris (DT - CHI)
Randy Starks (DT - TEN)
Ahmad Carroll (CB - GB)
Demorrio Williams (MLB - ATL)
Darnell Dockett (DT - ARI)
Dontarrious Thomas (WLB - MIN)
Caleb Miller (MLB - CIN)
Travis Laboy (DE - TEN)
Will Smith (DE - NO)
Vince Wilfork (DT - NE)
Jason Babin (OLB - HOU)
Glenn Earl (SS - HOU)
Stuart Schweigert (FS/SS - OAK)
Joey Thomas (CB - GB)
Nathan Vasher (CB - CHI)
Shawntae Spencer (CB - SF)
Jason David (CB - IND)
Keiwan Ratliff (CB - CIN)
Ricardo Colclough (CB - PIT)
Antwan Odom (DE - TEN)
Igor Olshansky (DE - SD)
Tank Johnson (DT - CHI)
Alex Lewis (LB - DET)
Brandon Chillar (SLB - STL)
Junior Siavii (DT - KC)
Shaun Phillips (DE - SD)

In-depth Profile

Weekly section pointing to and drawing from the FBG Preseason Content, including the Rookie Impact Series, IDP Sleepers/Busts Article, Team Reports and IDP Spotlights

from the Carolina Team Report...

1.28 (28) Chris Gamble - Cornerback - Ohio State - "Probably one of the top half dozen pure athletes in the entire draft. In the 2002 season, he played nearly every snap in several games that season. Still unimpressed? That was nearly every snap on defense AND offense (started on both offense and defense in five contests in '02). Exhibited the stamina and endurance of a cyborg, he was one of the most visible, high profile and talented playmakers to excel as a full time starter on both sides of the ball in recent memory. Current stud NFL CBs Charles Woodson (OAK) and Champ Bailey (DEN), arguably the top two talents at their position in the entire league (if Woodson's wheels are right), had a similar arc and trajectory to their collegiate careers, starring as two way playmakers at Michigan and Georgia, respectively. Woodson led his team to a co-national championship, and in the process became the first (and only) primarily defensive player to win the Heisman. Bailey, the apparent slacker among these two, was all-state in football, all-state honorable mention in basketball and state high jump champion as a prep, and later while at Georgia set the school indoor long jump record, finishing third at the '98 SEC Championships with a nearly 26' jump. Deion Sanders was another front-line, notable example of a dual/triple threat (all these guys are show stopping return artists, as well), but none of them took as many snaps as Gamble in the '02 season.

So Gamble is in some pretty select company, and you have to be a pretty talented athlete to stand out as the top multiple threat weapon in your draft class (LSU's Nick Saban insisted top 15 WR/Michael Clayton of the Bucs could have been an All-American at safety if he had focused on that position; he helped out in spot duty in '02, and was a demon throughout his career at neutralizing and snuffing out opposing return games with his exemplary tackling as a special teams gunner hondo). Gamble is in a double sense in select company, in that he is the leading edge of a line of superb Ohio State CBs that have gone on to distinguished pro careers; Shawn Springs, Antoine Winfield, Nate Clements and Ahmed Plummer. Now the downside. While a jack of trades, he is expert at none, and his CB technique is very raw and in need of refinement. Because he played so much WR as an underclassmen, it is to be expected that there will initially be a steep learning curve as he translates his prodigious natural athleticism and continues the education begun his senior year at Ohio State in focusing on CB, so he can learn the nuances of his position through concentrated instruction that comes with specialization. Some bad habits are that he gets caught peaking, can be easily fooled by play action and misdirection, has questionable run/pass read/recognition instincts at times (turns in coverage on running plays), gets turned around in coverage. He also gambles too much (sorry for the obligatory name pun), and could be more physical and aggressive in run support, and lunges and grabs rather than breaking down and form tackling. But there are some serious raw materials to work with. He plays faster than his timed speed, demonstrates a nice burst and ability to break on the ball, has NBA-quality hops, high-points the ball and competes in traffic, and has hands one would expect of a two way offensive/defensive mutant.

Fantasy Outlook: Gamble may have more upside than any cornerback in this draft considering how far he has come since goofing around at CB in practice for fun before his sophomore season at Ohio State, and coming out after only his second year at the position, as an underclassman. While Kiper's #3 rated CB after DeAngelo Hall and Dunta Robinson, he was the #1 graded prospect by respected personnel guru Frank Coyle. For the record, Kiper's ranking is more in accord with the consensus, and Coyle was factoring in a realization and payoff on Gamble's tremendous upside and potential. Gamble needs to eliminate mistakes, but new pro HC John Fox likes aggressive cornerbacks, and he will be a natural fit in Carolina's scheme. Expect the Panther's secondary coaches to be up to the job of preparing him for the rigors of the next level, and in position to put his considerable playmaking gifts to work within Carolina's exceptional overall team defense sooner rather than later. It won't hurt that the Panthers have the best D-Line in the league (Peppers, Rucker and Jenkins), and that should take the pressure off having to cover tightly for too long. If he is responsive to pro level tutelage of Carolina's Super Bowl-tested secondary coaches, he has the immense talent and all-around skill set to start opposite mighty mite Ricky Manning by mid-season, or as soon as the 2005 season... he just needs to beat out former Bengal Artrell Hawkins and home grown Dante Wesley. He certainly has the size scouts and coaches are looking for at 6'1" 200 lbs. This playmaker is an explosive athlete who has been a winner wherever he has played (in several positions, levels and even sports)... like Michael Jenkins he was a coveted, versatile multi-sport, multi-threat Florida prep star who was transplanted to the Buckeyes. He started on his Dillard High's (Broward County, FL) state championship basketball team as a junior, and led the football team to a state championship as a senior. He helped lead Ohio State to a national championship by blanketing 'dre Johnson in a stunning upset over NFL-feeder squad Miami University in the final game of 2002."

IDP Dynasty Strategery

Another ongoing feature, devoted to fostering awareness that IDP leagues are a universe and domain unto themselves, and operate according to a set of rules that can differ in important ways from many we have become familiar with and accustomed to.

Read To The End Of The Brochure When Targeting IDPs

Many factors should be thought through before selecting a draft pick, making a trade, or prioritizing and sequencing prospective waiver wire acquisitions. These could include, but are not limited to... talent, opportunity, team context (system and scheme), productivity, resume, pedigree, combine measurables Some are better than others at keeping these respective variables in mind at the same time, playing around with different permutations like tumblers on a lock, before arriving at a judgment that uses this larger perspective to weigh the relative importance of the different factors and the meaning of their connections. If you used a series of four transparencies that could be overlaid, each covering a quadrant of the scouting and personnel evaluation spectrum (something like triangle and combine drill numbers, prep/college resume and draft pedigree, projected ease of transition from college to pro for their position, team system/scheme) that were non-overlapping, and perhaps used three different colors of marker to indicate level of pro readiness... green for good, yellow for gamble, and red for danger signs... written in each non overlapping quadrant, than to overlay these transparencies, to see the respective and interconnected factors simultaneously, with color coded grades, would be to render a depth and comprehensiveness that approximates what takes place in weighing and judging talent.

A neglected dimension in these matters is the area that falls under the general heading of intangibles... maturity, football smarts, work ethic, charisma, versatility, leadership, toughness, durability, resiliency and passion for the game. While intangible factors require a little more interpretation work, and ability to read between the lines, factoring them in can pay big dividends. There were advance signs prior to the 2004 draft that WR Michael Clayton and MLB Jonathan Vilma possessed many of the traits found in the above constellation of attributes. Vilma was known as a coach on the field for his voracious film study of opponent tendencies, off-the-charts football IQ and ability to get his team lined up correctly and on time under pressure packed circumstances of big games... coupled with amazing athleticism and pedal-to-the-metal intensity. Clayton was also known to have a Herculean work ethic and indomitable spirit to improve... he used to take hundreds of passes after practice. Not just passes, but he specifically instructed the QB to throw bad, hard to handle passes... behind him, too high, too low, in ways that would require him to adjust, twist, spin, make the one-handed grab. This kind of disciplined, focused hard word has already paid off as the Bucs phenom and WR prodigy has demonstrated spectacular, Cris Carter-like hands, and leads all rookies in receptions and receiving yards. Byron Leftwich and Ed Reed are similar examples of success stories where there was some foreshadowing and advance knowledge of their highly regarded intangibles. While measurables, pedigree, projection and scheme considerations should not be neglected in your mental "overlay" of differentiating factors and competing criteria... intangibles can be like an axis and unifying spine that at one and the same time cuts across and through the complexity of competing factors and interwoven strands of information, while connecting, unifying and making sense of them.

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