"The cosmos speaks in patterns." - Roger Von Oech (paraphrase of Heraclitus)

"The issues are global, and so interlocked that to consider the problems of one sector oblivious to those of another is to court disaster for the whole." - General Douglas MacArthur

The column title Ear to the Ground was meant to connote and convey a sense of rumblings in the distance, and the ability to detect events still far away... as apt a metaphor as any for the job of projecting from college to pro, and rookie to veteran. The emphasis of ETTG will be on young talent (primarily, but not exclusively). As in actual IDP Dynasty leagues and working rosters, the best teams have a mix of young AND veteran players. Occasionally, often even, IDPs will be discussed with potential usefulness in redraft leagues, and overlapping content found here could hold broader interest than just Dynasty leagues. Another thrust of this column will be on the key positions of DE, LB and S, though exceptional DT and CB talent will be covered, for the benefit of leagues that distinguish between DE and DT, as well as S and CB. Defenses that play appallingly bad get the penalty box for two weeks. Coverage will be on a rotating basis (ARI - KC, MIA - WAS).

From a dynasty perspective, the tempo and cadence of insights is usually not given or presented in a rapid-fire, week-to-week manner (the rhythms and waves of events and happenings that wash over the Dynasty IDP landscape tend to not require weekly coverage for each and every team). It is a complex task to find and field the right mix of youth and veteran talent, production and promise on your team... but a large part of the inherent fun of Dynasty IDP leagues is derived from the challenge and increased degree of difficulty of juggling many different positions, talents and AGES spread across the breadth and depth of your roster. The compass of this column will take into account a players pedigree, especially their college, and in some cases, traced back to their prep resumes. But the North Star the compass always points toward is the future. If we extrapolate the arc and trajectory of a players career... where does it point... where does it lead?

Week 17

Miami - Jason Taylor made the Pro Bowl... of course the big news this week was the hiring of LSU HC Nick Saban... he was a secondary coach on Bill Belichick's Cleveland Browns staff, and has a very hands on approach when it comes to positional technique. As pathetic as the Dolphins were this season, reeling in the wake of the Ricky Williams sabbatical, flailing QB play of Fiedler and Feeley and a season ending injury in preseason to WR David Boston, most of the problems have been on the offensive side of the ball, and the new HC has some talent to work with on defense. DE Jason Taylor had a down season but is one of the top players in the league at his position, as is MLB Zach Thomas, who would have coasted to the NFL solo tackle crown if not for some down time late in the season. Incumbent LBs Junior Seau (IR) and Morlon Greenwood are not expected back next season, and the Dolphins aren't quite sure what they have on their hands in '03 second round WLB Eddie Moore (IR)... if he can stay out of the training room (he has been a fixture there in his first two seasons... on IR all of 2003), he has the speed and athleticism of a former RB, and some intriguing potential. Leading into last season, many football insiders thought Miami's CB tandem of Sam Madison and Patrick Surtain were as good as it gets... Madison slipped in '03, but may have outplayed his diminutive running mate in '04. A player to keep an eye out for is fourth round CB Will Poole, who plummeted from first round contention, primarily due to a lineman-like, ponderously slow 40 (he was allegedly sick with the flu, but at any rate plays a lot faster than he times), as well as character concerns and off the field issues (William Green couldn't hang with him at Boston College because he partied too hard). He was kicked off the BC squad, scuffled around including a JUCO stint until he came from nowhere in a huge senior year during USC's co-national championship season... got a glowing personal reference from Trojans and two-time pro HC Pete Carroll, but a pre-draft DUI doubtless didn't help assure league wide personnel hondos that he had pulled his personal stuff together. Be that as it may, he is a top notch athlete who played point guard on the BC basketball team, and was called the most physical and intimidating CBs in run support in the draft, along with the brilliant DROY candidate Dunta Robinson of Houston. SS Sammy Knight was once one of the most opportunistic playmakers in the NFC while with the Saints, but his best seasons are probably behind him... though if any coach could jump-start him in the twilight of his career it would be the demanding, exacting and fiery Saban.

Minnesota - The Vikings claim they are not the same team that choked against the Cards last season... they began '03 6-0, than went 3-7... this season they started 5-1... if they lose to the Redskins Sunday it will be their second straight 3-7 finish. They still get a wild card berth if either the Panthers lose at home to the Saints or the Rams stumble at home against the Jets in a game rife with playoff implications. A rare tie by either team would be as good as a loss, though St. Louis and New Orleans haven't been involved in many defensive battles lately. A big problem for Minnesota dating back to October of 2000 is that they are 2-19 in their last 21 games on grass (1-3 this season)... they are more avid grass haters than the production team of "Reefer Madness". The secondary could use an overhaul... a typical Vikings game in the Tice regime involves more torches than the end of a Frankenstein movie. CB Antoine Winfield is a stud, and SS Cory Chavous can be an asset, though probably better served as a FS in the future. Drafting a blunt force trauma engine like Georgia SS Thomas Davis (one of this week's In-Depth Profiles, along with Texas OLB Derrick Johnson and Virginia OLB Ahmad Brooks) would make their deep patrol better two ways in one stroke. It would enable them to sit weak link Brian Russell (paradoxically a big hitter but poor tackler), and slide Chavous to his more natural FS position, where he is closer to the physical prototype, and let his unparalleled football smarts and coach on the field instincts more fully come to the fore. DT Spencer Johnson's 11 tackles (9 solos) were more than any Purple People Eater D-Lineman all season, including Pro Bowl DT Kevin Williams. With DT Chris Hovan obviously on the way out, Johnson could thrive in '05 playing next to the ascendant star Williams... he was called by Tice the most "unblockable" D-Lineman on the team earlier in the season. Prized and coveted rookie DE Kenechi Udeze had an unspectacular debut season... though there are some mitigating factors which could still point towards future stardom. The D-Line position can take a longer maturity rate in general, Udeze came out as a junior, and was playing with a clipped wing... he is going to have offseason surgery to put the pesky shoulder right. Ex-Bill and free agent stud CB Antoine Winfield only played in the nickel defense on Sunday, and pulled himself late in the game due to his improperly healed high ankle sprain. Many Vikings insiders had hoped that the LB corps would be vastly improved by the drafting of MLB E.J. Henderson and WLB/SLB Dontarrious Thomas in the second rounds of the respective '03 and '04 drafts... Henderson still looks lost and tentative at times (the opposite of when he was a Defensive Player of the Year-caliber playmaker with Maryland)... perhaps he is being held back by knee and back insults... he was diagnosed with a narrowing of the spinal canal called stenosis that may make him more vulnerable to long-term back and neck distress. Thomas' rookie effort would have to go down as a disappointment... he was benched numerous times for missing assignments.

New England - The Patriots gave up a combined 57 points in weeks 14-15... it is not time to hit the panic button yet, but possibly all the attrition to an already depleted secondary is finally starting to take its toll. The improbable loss on MNF to the Dolphins brought an end to a streak in which the team had won 38 in a row when leading after three quarters, and 31 in a row after leading at the half. DE Richard Seymour is going back to Hawaii. In other news, the Patriots returned to their dominant ways in a showdown at the Meadowlands in week 16... they seem to have the Jets number lately. ILB Tedy Bruschi is somewhat of an under-the-radar superstar, and not completely surprisingly was left off of the Pro Bowl squad... but make no mistake... he is the heart and soul of that defense... the Ray Lewis of the Patriots. The curious omission of SS Rodney Harrison was a more eye-raising sleight. To the victor go the spoils, and the Steelers reaped the rewards of their miraculous season. You knew Ravens SS Ed Reed was getting an automatic berth with his Defensive Player of the Year-caliber season... that Troy Polamalu was given the other nod is a testament to the rapidity with which league-wide esteem for Blitzburgh has risen, and the almost incalculable impact the Zone Blitz mastermind Dick LeBeau has had on the Steelers fortunes. Not that it was a charity extension... the Samoan rocket is in the first of what should be many reservations to the island paradise. For IDP dynasty ballers, keep a close watch out for FS Eugene Wilson... he is a freakishly gifted and versatile athlete. New England is also building an impressive stable of D-Linemen... not only multi-Pro Bowler Seymour, but also rookie first round DT Vince Wilfork and second year first round DE Ty Warren.

New Orleans - Like the Saints, ex-Packer CB Mike McKenzie started slow this season... in his case due to a holdout and not general indifference and ineptitude. Like the Saints, he has caught fire of late... his 2 INTs against the Falcons were the third straight game with an INT. The league's 32nd rated rush defense held Atlanta under the century mark, but the birds of prey had their wings clipped without Vick (and his favorite target... stud TE Alge Crumpler). It looks like we were too hard on HC Haslett when we called him a dead man walking a few installments ago... if nothing else, the combination of a cheap, skinflint boss willing to sell out his fan base and a HC with several seasons left on his contract is probably not a recipe for an immanent departure, or the scrambling of a Haz-Mat team. Hope for the future comes in the form of ascendant superstar DE Charles Grant, '04 first round DE Will Smith, '04 second round MLB Courtney Watson (who looks like a player but was held back by an in-season knee injury; he was the early season favorite in this space for DROY) and MLB/OLB Cie Grant if he can rebound from a chronic knee condition (he held down the mutant like responsibilities of LB and CB during a career in which he helped lead Ohio State to a National Championship over Miami a few years ago... he once came in second to Dolphins WR Chris Chambers in a Big Ten 200 m race). DT Jonathan Sullivan looks more and more like an epic, colossal bust, and the team hasn't even bothered activating him lately. Finishing last statistically among all NFL defenses is eminent and distinguished qualification for the penalty box. Shockingly, the Aints have a chance to sneak into the playoffs if they get some help.

New York Giants - With former Rams great Kurt Warner at the helm, the team was 5-2 at one point (now 5-10)... since Eli Manning was inserted into the starting lineup, the team has gone 0-6, in a nasty tailspin, the vortex of which has now embroiled the team and coaching staff in bitter controversy. With seemingly very little to feel good about in the midst of a season that began with such promise but quickly turned horrific, there were a few oasises of promise to be found within the generally bleak tenor of '04. With integral defenders such as DE Michael Strahan and SS Shaun Williams decimated and put on IR early on, the Giants got an extended look at budding stars Gibril Wilson and DE Osi Umenyiora. You hate to call any injury fortuitous, but SS Wilson in particular might not have been discovered (at least not so quickly) if not for the rash of injuries to the secondary, which also claimed FS Omar Stoutmire to IR within the first month of the season. At one point, Wilson was the #1 IDP DB in many scoring systems on a PPG basis... edging even stud SS Rodney Harrison of the Pats. He averaged 6-7 solos per game, and came through with a sack or INT on a seemingly weekly basis with the regularity and dependability of a metronome. He than suffered a burner in his neck/shoulder that has now claimed nearly half his season... fueling speculation that he might be shifted to a playmaking FS role in '05, taking advantage of his raw and unpolished but formidable ballhawking skills. The 2004 fifth rounder and IDP SOD is not a big dude as far as having prototypical SS dimensions, and may be a little too reckless in how he throws his body around, playing too big for his size. Either way, he is a Playah! with a capital P... Strahan called him the team's defensive MVP earlier in the year... and he wasn't being modest. Osi (be glad your not an announcer) had 13 tackles and 1 sack plus a 50 yard FR TD against the Ravens recently, flashing a glimpse of what owners might come to expect in the future when he assumes the starting gig full time... if he can hold up against the run, and he looks like he is going to be OK, he has the athleticism to be a monster pass rusher. WLB Barrett Green was placed on IR, and at the present time it is unclear if hardcase, no-nonsense HC Tom Coughlin wants to deal with his antics next season. Team gets the penalty box for internecine warfare and publicly aired rifts.

New York Jets - DE John Abraham got a Pro Bowl invite. First round MLB Jonathan Vilma broke a twenty year old team record for tackles by a rookie, and is leading all Jets this season with 102 tackles (also a big play magnet with 2 sacks and 2 INTs... he could easily triple that sack figure in 2005) more importantly, he has shown the maturity, poise and leadership of a five year veteran, and his coach-on-the-field football smarts have been as good as advertised. After starting MLB Sam Cowart went down in week two to a knee injury, things might have looked grim... Vilma helped propel them to becoming one of the top defenses in the NFL. When some teams wilt under the pressure, Gang Green has been stingiest in crunch time, with seven second half shutouts. This kind of impact makes Vilma the prohibitive favorite to win the Rookie Defensive Player of the Year award, though by the metric of raw stat production, WLB D.J. Williams of the Orange Crush and the Texans superb CB Dunta Robinson arguably have more merit. Similarly, Ben Roethlisberger is a lock to win the Rookie Offensive Player of the Year chiefly by virtue of the Steelers magnificent season on his watch (and factoring in that QB is historically extremely difficult to come in and play at a high level for a rookie)... though Bucs WR Michael Clayton has perhaps put up the more eye-popping individual stats at his respective position (WR is also not a position traditionally associated with rookies coming in and dominating right out of the gate). The Jets were the only team to place two rookies in the ETTG DROY Watch... SS Erik Coleman beat out veteran Reggie Tongue unexpectedly in training camp and hasn't looked back since. DT DeWayne Robertson is starting to look like he could emerge as a dominant force in the middle, which bodes well for Vilma owners if he can collapse and control the pocket and keep his MLB clean from O-Lineman blockers in the second level. DE Shaun Ellis had a workmanlike season and was rewarded with a contract extension. WLB Eric Barton was one of the top IDP impact free agent acquisitions in the league in 2004. The one chink in the Gang Green armor could be their CB play... which could be addressed in the '05 draft ('04 Nagurski winner, CB Derick Strait of Oklahoma could pan out yet, as well).

Philadelphia - Congratulations to the Eagles for fielding nine of their players on the Pro Bowl Roster... they just about have the numbers and buying clout to charter their own jet. Prominent among the defensive selections include MLB Jeremiah (Was A Bullfrog) Trotter, who actually only started a handful of games after DC Jim Johnson finally came to his senses and got the best eleven defenders on the field at the same time by sliding incumbent Mark Simoneau to his more natural WLB position. Trotter has made amends with HC Reid (mercifully spandex-less) for the contract squabble that caused him to move to the Redskins in free agency a few seasons ago... unfortunately during the Steve Spurrier tenure/freak show. He has definitely brought a nastiness and hardcase attitude, and embodies a greater resolve and determination to spearhead a physical run defense... sometimes you need to fight fire with fire, and smashmouth with smashmouth. Stopping the run has long been known by the NFL cognoscenti to be a core competency of Championship teams, and with the intense and resilient Trotter front and center the team has stepped up in that department. Philly is sending virtually their entire secondary to luau-land en bloc... all but CB Sheldon Brown. FS Brian (Idiot Man) Dawkins was expected to get the nod... he could get frequent flyer miles from his trips to Hawaii after returning strong from the dreaded Lis-Franc foot injury that plagued him last season. SS Michael Lewis (a second rounder that might have gone higher if not for red flags raised during the draft process arising from a congenital heart condition) and CB Lito Sheppard were pleasant surprises. Lewis is a prototypical SS with a futuristic array of skills... he can stomp the ground attack and give ball carriers the rude awakening Michael Moore would expect at a George Bush fund raiser... but is also more than competent in pass coverage. Sheppard has been better than advertised in run support, and is among a small handful of DBs chasing Ed Reed for the league lead in INT return yards. After much hand wringing by the pundits that Reid and the Eagles made too many changes too quickly in the secondary (CBs Bobby Taylor and Troy Vincent had been longtime stalwarts in the nation's capitol for Cheese-steaks), but the youngsters, including Sheldon Brown, held up surprisingly well. Most importantly, Johnson didn't have to protect them with conservative base coverage packages, but was instead able to throw his usual full complement and panoply of exotic blitz packages at the opposition. Philly doesn't do it with smoke and mirrors... they consistently are among the league leaders in fewest points allowed, despite giving up yards between the twenties... they are #1 in the NFL in that critically important stat... an achievement the team collectively takes great satisfaction in. DE Jevon "Freak 2.0" Kearse may not have put up monster IDP stats in his inaugural season as an Eagle, but his impact was massive nonetheless... few players in the league had as many QB pressures and hurries (maybe a hidden reason and skeleton key to the youngster CBs looking so good and coming on so fast), which bodes well for a return to DD sackdom in '05, after a few year injury-driven hiatus with the Titans. When healthy, there have never been any questions about his Hall of Fame-caliber pure athleticism, physical gifts and natural talent. Though he is close to six and a half feet tall, his wingspan would probably dwarf that of Shaquille O'Neal... the Freak could massage his calves while standing upright. He is one of the very few physical specimens in the history of the league to possess DE size and LB/safety agility coupled with CB speed. There has been some controversy about the Eagles resting their starters, made more visible by being featured in a pre-season-like MNF game against the Rams... but they have earned the right with a historic divisional dominance. Their seven game lead over second place Dallas with a game to go (despite basically conceding to St. Louis Monday night) ties for the widest margin ever shared by the '85 Bears and '72 Dolphins... two pretty decent teams that subsequently went on to win Super Bowls. It goes without saying that any Eagles IDPs should be considered risky starts in week 17 if you have anybody else on your roster capable of breathing.

Pittsburgh - ILB James Farrior, Defensive Player of the Year candidate, got a well deserved selection to the Pro Bowl, as did OLB Joey Porter and the second year sensation, SS Troy Polamalu. The Steelers have been so successful this season, that it is easy to forget they have weathered the storm of a lot of early and mid-season injuries. Not only to Tommy Maddox (which obviously in retrospect was fortuitous in that it thrust Rookie of the Year lock Ben Roethlisberger into the starting lineup earlier than he would have otherwise... a case of because, and not despite of), Duce Staley and Plaxico Burress on offense, but Pro Bowl interior lineman Casey Hampton, former Defensive Rookie of the Year ILB Kendrell Bell and Chad Scott on defense. It is doubtful that Bell would be back if another team breaks the bank for him in free agency... since he is somewhat of a risk and unknown commodity with all the lost time from myriad groin and leg injuries since the '03 season, he might not be able to fetch the top dollar offer commensurate with his former DROY pedigree... in which case he could re-up for an incentive-laden contract, structured in such a way that certain easily met performance goals might trigger salary escalators. Keep an eye out for rookie second round CB Richard Colclough, who has the tools to be a starter once he figures things out.

San Diego - Bill Cowher and John Fox would also be worthy candidates for Coach of the Year, but it will be a shame if Marty Schottenheimer doesn't get it, for engineering (along with GM A.J. Smith) one of the most stunning reversals in a team's fortunes from one season to the next in recent memory... and probably in league history. NT Jamal Williams was spurned by Pro Bowl voters, but he was a key to making the Super Chargers 3-4 defense work. A brutal, Neanderthal-like pocket crushing powerhouse at NT with the feet, quickness, movement skills, agility, explosiveness and burst to close on the QB is one of the tallest orders in the league to fill. He has been hurt a lot in the past, but with the benefit of an injury-free season Williams was able to string together a monster, Pro Bowl caliber year. Donnie Edwards was inexplicably left off the Pro Bowl as well... the former Chiefs and UCLA Bruin OLB/ILB has put up some surreal numbers lately, helping win games for his owners almost single-handedly, and is making a late push for NFL Defensive Player of the Year (with Farrior and Ed Reed)... it could be a photo finish. ILB Steve Foley was considered a journeyman, but ex-Falcon DC Wade Phillips saw something in him nobody else did, and he has been a driving force and instrumental in the teams resurgence, also. He has had about as many sacks this season as in his entire career beforehand... COMBINED. Sophomore SS Terrence Kiel has quietly matured in year two, and could be preparing to crack into the top 10 among safeties in '05. An injury to CB Sammy (The Candy Man Can) Davis enabled the city with the easiest weatherman gig in the country to get a better look at nickel CB Drayton Florence in the saddle as a starter... he has superior athleticism and is playing with more confidence and better attention to detail than he did in '03 as a rookie.

Seattle - Way back in the April draft, HC Mike Holmgren stated after the selection of Florida State LB Michael Boulware that they almost took him in round one (they instead opted for Texas DT Marcus Tubbs... fortunately the Ravens OLB Peter's younger brother was still on the board in round two). It is easy to see why... he has star written all over him. Any time a team takes on a position conversion (in this case from OLB to SS) there is an element of uncertainty and risk, but Boulware is making a very smooth transition, and already looks like one of the best defenders on the team. Second year FS Ken Hamlin is a talent in his own right, but the rookie already seems to have surpassed him and looks closer to emerging as one of the ascendant talents at his position in the entire league. DE Grant Wistrom was making a big impact on the overall complexion and tenor of the defense early in the season. Alas, he hasn't been as effective since breaking his leg... evidently the former Ram is a bit of a slacker (:kidding:), despite coming from the team that brought us DE Jack Youngblood, the man with the scary, G. Gordon Liddy/Oddjob-like pain threshold. When healthy, WLB Chad Brown and SLB Anthony Simmons are one of the most dynamic duos in the business. Unfortunately, they drag themselves from the training room and manage to attain activated status about as often as Ben Affleck releases a critically acclaimed box office smash. Though expectations for ex-Eagle CB Bobby Taylor's contribution quickly became tempered once it became obvious that this was going to be a season hag-ridden by injury, it did give the coaching staff a chance to see CB Ken Lucas turn things around... he and '03 first rounder Marcus Trufant were among the league tackle leaders at their position. Though Trufant seemed to regress in coverage from his brilliant rookie campaign... scouts thought he gave up too much cushion to WRs, and overcompensated for the more rigorous 5 yard chuck enforcement this season.

St. Louis - HC Mike Martz was playing the blame game, and called out QB Chris "Crystal" Chandler for the horrific job he has done behind center in two ill-fated games recently... maybe he should look in the mirror for thinking Chandler would be able to get the job done. The responsibility should fall squarely on the coach's shoulders to have a competent replacement adequately prepared and ready to go. There was definitely a circus type atmosphere to the Arizona game in the wake of the announcement by ESPN's Chris Mortensen if his team lost in the desert the Mad Scientist would resign. They did... he didn't. It has been a penalty box kind of season for the Rams... and could become a Penalty box career if Mad Mike doesn't start to cultivate a little more lucidity over the proceedings. A heads up to Leonard Little owners... if he is convicted in a trial that is scheduled pre-draft, he could get four years in prison under a special sentencing provision with wider latitude for repeat felony drunk driving offenders. The talented but troubled DE fell under this provision when he was arrested for drunk driving right before the '04 draft... AFTER having a manslaughter offense in his legal file. DE Anthony Hargrove may eventually have the talent to help mitigate the prospective loss of Little, but he is as raw as one would expect of player that went out as an underclassman and hadn't played since his sophomore year due to an enrollment technicality/snafu. From all accounts he is a good kid, and this was not a technicality in the Ohio State booster-sense.

Tampa Bay - The Bucs have lost 14 games by a TD or less since the '03 season. They also get the dubious distinction of being the first team in NFL history to follow up a Super Bowl win with two losing seasons in a row. It was somewhat surreal to hear Chuckie, the incarnation of intensity, get chewed out in the national media by DE Simeon Rice for allowing the team to become complacent. Gruden is trying to pick up the pieces from the lost season, and in a brutal and candid self-assessment recently noted... "I don't think we're a bad team... We obviously do some evil things... Great teams, playoff teams, don't do the things we've done this season." The long overdue insertion of DE Dewayne White was implemented by shifting the incumbent Greg Spires to the Under-Tackle role in Monte Kiffin's hybrid/variant of the Dungy-inspired Cover Two... this could make them better two different ways in one stroke. They have been wanting to get a better look at their top pick from the '03 draft (last pick in the second round... coming off a Super Bowl win in '02 and having traded away their first rounder that year to acquire the rights to Gruden). Respected scout's scout Frank Coyle called him one of the most gifted pass rushers to come along in several years after a very auspicious debut as a Freshman and Sophomore at Louisville, in which he flashed as much pass rushing potential as any D-Lineman in the country. If good looking FS Dwight Smith leaves the Bucs in free agency as expected, they have an excellent contingency plan in place. FS Dexter Jackson was the incumbent during their '02 Super Bowl run, which he parlayed into a big free agency contract with the Cardinals. The new regime under Dennis Green grew impatient with a slow to heal back injury (Jackson claims they misdiagnosed it), felt he no longer fit with their long range plans and released him. The ex-Buc found his way back to his former employers, and one player's prodigal circuit was completed. Rejuvenated WLB Derrick (You got to POP your legs, son) Brooks was named to his eighth consecutive Pro Bowl, though this is a strong comeback season after a few years that were as uneven as Ringo Starr's post-Beatle's work. SLB Ian Gold (former Broncos WLB) owners who were hoping Brooks would stumble and begin to show his age, than be shown the door by GM Bruce Allen and Gruden, and purged the way of Buc institutions Sapp and John Lynch in the '04 offseason were disappointed... and may have to bide their time a while longer. While he hasn't produced massive stats from the tackle-strapped SLB position, as expected, he did answer some lingering questions about how he would bounce back from an ACL-reconstruction in the 2003 season, his last with Denver. Gold could star as the WLB in this system once Brooks does retire... but that could be a while if the super intense incumbent WLB keeps defying Father Time and plays like he did this season. Front-line DT talent Anthony "Booger" McFarland was supposed to represent a smooth transition and segue away from the Warren Sapp era, but he landed on IR (and sure seems to be hurt a lot). SS Jermaine Phillips (IR) had an up 'n down season before being shut down from a broken arm. CBs Ronde Barber and Brian Kelly still comprise one of the better tandems in the league... readers who frequent this column know the value of Cover Two CBs... their system of zone defense dictates increased run support opps for the CBs.

Tennessee - The Raiders Kerry Collins torched the Titans for 5 TDs, and the secondary offered about as much resistance as a twinkie in a woodchipper. While the team does miss SS Tank Williams (IR) and CB Samari Rolle, right now it is just WLB Keith Bullock, DT Albert Haynesworth, DE/DT Kevin Carter... and a whole bunch of nobodies. Tennessee does have some promising long range IDPs in '04 second round twin DEs Travis LaBoy and Lamar Odom.

Washington - As great as the Redskins defense has been this season, the 78 yard INT return by MLB Antoni Pierce against the 49ers was the first score by the defense all season. The team is gunning for the #1 defense ranking, currently held by the Steelers... if they could have showed even a little more on offense, even a semblance of an attack, they likely would have made the playoffs in year one of prodigal legend Joe Gibbs return. They are somewhat like the Dolphins in that fans had to suffer though the gruesome and grotesque play of an inept offense... whereas there is a lot to like on defense, and cause for optimism to build leading into the 2005 season. WLB Lavar Arrington returned against San Francisco for the first time in about three months, but the team wisely decided to shut him down (placed on IR week 17) in a season that was as disappointing to Washington and their fans, as it was to Arrington and his owners. The second overall pick of the 2000 draft played in only four games, had only 11 solos and 1 sack for the season, with no INTs or FFs. SLB Marcus Washington, the Colts free agent, will be sunning in balmy Hawaii come February while his East coast teammates will be shoveling snow off the driveway... many free agents transplants don't thrive right away (the adjustment of a new city, team, scheme, coaching, etc.), but Washington was a big time success story, and one of many bright spots for ex-Bills HC and Redskins DC Gregg Williams. He narrowly missed the team lead in solo tackles (89), barely eclipsed by MLB Antonio Pierce. At the beginning of the season, Pierce languished on many a waiver wire, poised on the cusp of greatness with a coveted starting MLB gig, yet a lot of IDP owners failed to pull the trigger as Michael Barrow was coming off a lights out season with the Giants, and it was expected to be just a formality that he would assume his rightful role as the MLB as soon as he recovered from a balky knee... Barrow never was activated all season long, despite periodic and increasingly infrequent teasers about his potential return... enter Plan B. Pierce quietly proceeded to come close to a top 10 finish in solo tackles among NFL LBs. He is eligible to become a free agent in the offseason, but the coaching staff wants him back and he is confident a deal can be worked out. DT Cornelius Griffin, a Giants free agent, was one of the top interior D-Linemen in the NFC, along with Shaun Rogers and Rod Coleman... he was only the fourth alternate to the Pro Bowl, but was voted by his teammates the team MVP award. First round FS Sean Taylor hasn't dominated right out of the gate as expected (given his fifth overall draft pedigree, highest selected IDP in the '04 draft)... in fact he didn't get a chance to start until about mid-season, and a DUI transgression was a red flag that seemed to confirm some character concerns. He did, however, flash his signature world class athleticism and trademark closing burst on hapless WRs... enough to suggest he is the real deal and has a brilliant career in front of him... perhaps with many Pro Bowls (Hall of Fame?) in his future. My only reservations for those inclined to blow up their team to secure his services... he is such an invaluable weapon in the deep patrol as a center fielder... will his run support tackle opportunities always be curtailed as a result? If so, he may have to get a lot of INTs to catch up with the cheaper rookie safety alternatives with less buzz and name recognition, but situated in more tackle-friendly roles/schemes (such as Gibril Wilson and Madieu Williams). SS Ryan Clark was a pleasant surprise when Matt Bowen went on IR... he could be more than a stopgap and interim solution, but it is not known if he did enough to dislodge Bowen from the starting spot looking towards next season.

Defensive Rookie of the Year Watch

The watchlist attempts to forecast who the top defensive players are in actual football terms, as well as take into account the most productive IDP talent. The emphasis is on watchwords like productivity, opportunity, consistency and IMPACT. A persuasive and compelling case could be made for any of the top three in the final cut as legitimate candidates for DROY. Honorable mention goes to the Giants Gibril Wilson, who is hard to assign the highest grade missing as he did a substantial block of the season... though he was pressing hard for the top spot at the time he went down. If the Seahawks Michael Boulware had started earlier in the season (and perhaps this line of thinking also extends to Colts FS/SS Bob Sanders), t/he/y may have been in contention from wire-to-wire, as well.

1. Jonathan Vilma (MLB/ILB - NYJ)... 76 solos, 26 assists, 2 sacks, 2 INTs
2. DJ Williams (WLB - DEN)... 86 solos, 25 assists, 2 sacks, 1 INT, 1 FF
3. Dunta Robinson (CB - HOU)... 69 solos, 12 assists, 3 sacks, 6 INTs, 3 FFs
4. Madieu Williams (FS/SS - CIN)... 84 solos, 14 assists, 2 sack, 3 INTs, 1 TD
5. Sean Taylor (FS - WAS)... 60 solos, 12 assists, 1 sack, 4 INTs, 2 FFs, 1 DUI
6. Erik Coleman (SS - NYJ)... 69 solos, 24 assists, 2 sacks, 3 INTs
7. Gibril Wilson (SS - NYG)... 49 solos, 7 assists, 3 sacks, 3 INTs, 1 FF
8. Michael Boulware (SS - SEA)... 43 solos, 14 assists, 1 sack, 5 INTs, 2 FFs, 1 TD
9. Chris Gamble (CB - CAR)... 65 solos, 5 assists, 6 INTs, 1 FF
10. Karlos Dansby (SLB - ARI)... 42 solos, 15 assists, 5 sacks, 1 INT, 1 FF
11. Teddy Lehman (SLB - DET)... 79 solos, 10 assists, 1 sack, 1 INT, 1 FF
12. Jared Allen (DE - KC)... 26 solos, 2 assists, 9 sacks

Standing on the Verge (of Gettin It...)

* Kenechi Udeze (DE - MIN)
* Daryl Smith (SLB - JAX)
* Bob Sanders (FS - IND)
* Courtney Watson (MLB - NO)
* Landon Johnson (WLB - CIN)
* Tommie Harris (DT - CHI)
* Randy Starks (DT - TEN)
* Ahmad Carroll (CB - GB)
* Demorrio Williams (MLB - ATL)
* Darnell Dockett (DT - ARI)
* Dontarrious Thomas (WLB - MIN)
* Caleb Miller (MLB - CIN)
* Travis Laboy (DE - TEN)
* Will Smith (DE - NO)
* Vince Wilfork (DT - NE)
* Jason Babin (OLB - HOU)
* Glenn Earl (SS - HOU)
* Stuart Schweigert (FS/SS - OAK)
* Joey Thomas (CB - GB)
* Nathan Vasher (CB - CHI)
* Shawntae Spencer (CB - SF)
* Jason David (CB - IND)
* Keiwan Ratliff (CB - CIN)
* Ricardo Colclough (CB - PIT)
* Antwan Odom (DE - TEN)
* Igor Olshansky (DE - SD)
* Tank Johnson (DT - CHI)
* Alex Lewis (LB - DET)
* Brandon Chillar (SLB - STL)
* Shaun Phillips (DE - SD)

In-depth Profile

Weekly section pointing to and drawing from the FBG Preseason Content, including the Rookie Impact Series, IDP Sleepers/Busts Article, Team Reports and IDP Spotlights... in this season wrap edition we will mix things up a little and take an advance look at the 2005 draft, pointing towards select incoming rookie IDP talent... LBs Derrick Johnson and Ahmad Brooks, as well as S Thomas Davis, who will be expected to step right in and star for their respective teams immediately, and could all be off the board by the middle of the first round.

Derrick Johnson (Texas OLB) - If he had chosen to leave Texas as an underclassman after his junior season, might have been the first LB selected... saying a lot given that Defensive Rookie of the Year front-runners (along with Texans CB Dunta Robinson), the Jets MLB Jonathan Vilma and Broncos WLB D.J. Williams were first rounders from the 2004 draft. After coming back for his senior season with the Longhorns, Johnson put together a stellar final campaign that did nothing to diminish the high esteem he is held in by scouts. He wrapped up an illustrious collegiate career as a two-time first team All-American (not counting a first team Freshman All-American award), was again nominated as one of three finalists for the Butkus award he won in '03 (awarded to the nation's best LB, along with Virginia's Ahmad Brooks and USC's Matt Grootegoed) and won the Bronco Nagurski trophy, annually extended to the nations top defensive player. Johnson was a prep legend whose storied achievements included running a smoking 10.5 100 m (he is now 6'4" 230), as well as once getting 30 tackles in a game. Very fast, rangy and athletic... might be the best natural, pure athlete in the class, on either side of the ball. A playmaker equally comfortable roaming sideline-to-sideline, dropping back into coverage or pressing and attacking the QB from the edge. If he has a weakness, he could be a little more stout at the POA and get off blocks a little better (what young LB couldn't you say that about?), so he isn't targeted and run at as soon as he gets to the next level... though he definitely has the frame to fill out. Being such a phenomenal talent and possessing a complete array of skills that make him an emergent, ascendant LB prodigy, he sometimes overly relies on his admittedly formidable natural abilities and physical gifts, at the expense of playing within the scheme in a disciplined and structured manner, occasionally overstepping his responsibilities and freelancing (outstanding NFL LBs such as Junior Seau and LaVar Arrington encountered similar challenges at a comparable point in their careers). Instinctive and always around the action... a fluid, explosive athlete... solid tackler... never has had a problem translating his awesome athleticism to on field production... could be a big play engine (9 career INTs are a Texas LB record, and 8 FFs in a season tied an NCAA record). Johnson has been called by some scouts the most talented at his position in several drafts, likely the top defensive player in the 2005 draft, with a top 5-10 selection possible (Mel Kiper has him as the #1 graded prospect in the entire draft, though that doesn't reflect positional scarcity and team needs). This future All-Pro also has the pedigree and bloodlines with several relatives dotting the collegiate and pro landscape (most notably cousin Bert Emanuel, a Rice QB who parlayed a 4.3 40 into becoming a retooled run-n-shoot WR for the Atlanta Falcons attack, back in the day with Terrance Mathis and Eric Metcalf).

Ahmad Brooks (Virginia ILB) - He has not declared yet... only a sophomore, but went for a season to Hargrave Military Academy, so eligibility is not in dispute ala former Ohio State RB Maurice Clarett and USC WR Mike Williams in the 2004 draft... this would be a path to the NFL similar to that of ex-Pitt and current Arizona Cardinals WR Larry Fitzgerald. Brooks should be a lock to be a first rounder if he comes out, and represents an elite convergence of size (6'4" 250), speed (4.6), power and athleticism... think D.J. Williams or LaVar Arrington for comp players. One of the highest recruited players in the nation as a prep (USA Today National Defensive Player of the Year). A stellar career including first team All-State LB and second team All-State as a RB... he had 207 tackles (144 solos), 3 sacks, 1 INT, 5 FFs & 2 FRs in his final stanza, also rushing for 848 yards, 10 TDs and a D.J. Williams-like 12.6 YPC. Experience couldn't be called a plus, which could cast doubts about his pro readiness... probably misplaced. He has been a two year starter, and set a UVa freshman record with 117 tackles and 4 sacks (first team Freshman All-American)... for perspective, current league Defensive Player of the Year candidate James Farrior of the Steelers and Jamie Sharper of the Texans were former teammates and are alumni luminaries from the Cavaliers stable of LBs. Has both the resume (one of three nominees for the aforementioned Butkus trophy, with Grootegoed and eventual winner Johnson, after just his second year in Div I) and the pedigree... his father played DT for the Redskins. The future first rounder has the natural talent and advanced skill set to be a prototypical ILB... or OLB. The rare versatility to hit like a freight train in run support, effortlessly drop into coverage as well as get upfield and pressure the QB from the edge. How often are LBs asked to multitask as kickoff returners (Urlacher did as a collegiate, though he was a safety at the time)? A physical specimen and man-child who could be a Moses Malone-like parallel in the football domain... despite his relative youth and inexperience, he could step in right away and in a short period become a dominant force. An embryonic superstar that some scouts think has as much upside as any player in the draft... on either side of the ball.

Thomas Davis (Georgia FS) - A super-sized guided missile FS that looks and hits like a LB (6'1" 230), runs like a safety (4.5) and covers like a CB. Davis has been clocked as fast as 4.4, benches close to 400 lbs and has a 40"+ vertical. Extremely rugged, physical and hard-nosed against the run... when he sees the play unfold and goes into search and destroy mode, capable of blowing up and completely obliterating the ball carrier. The best safety in a pretty good looking class for that position (see Oklahoma's Donte Nicholson and UNLV's Jamaal Brimmer)... has been compared favorably in run support to former Sooner Defensive Player of the Year and current Dallas Cowboy FS Roy Williams. Somewhat raw, and still learning the ropes of the position (let alone the nuances), due to being shunted from LB to safety during his young career. Has the closing speed of a Shelby Cobra, and makes plays all over the field. An instinctive player, intimidating hitter (probably the most feared in the SEC) with the well rounded game to be equally adept in pass coverage, and the versatility to flourish at either safety position in the pros. This wreaks havoc on an offense's ability to exploit mismatches by isolating FSs weak in run support and SSs weak in coverage. Not as fast a break on the ball as ex-Miami rocket and current Redskins FS Sean Taylor (who comes out of his break faster than a bullet from a snub-nosed .38), but similar in that his ridiculously complete and already fully formed game will blunt and resist the feeble attempts of opposing offenses to probe him for said mismatch weaknesses. The Albany Herald reported that due to Davis having a one year old son, he is leaning towards declaring for the 2005 draft. The product of a bygone era, he has the unusual attributes of being respectful and humble, should take well to coaching at the next level and acclimate quickly to the pro game. In a revealing ESPN tribute to Davis, All-American DE and fellow Bulldog defender David Pollack raved... "Thomas is a freak... His burst is disgusting. I would trade with him in a heartbeat. I've never seen a kid with as much athletic ability." Georgia DC Brian VanGorder concurred... "The other thing is that he brings a certain lift to our defense, a certain identity that the other players start relating to. We're big on showing our defense particular plays of guys that represent what we like. I can promise you we've had a lot of clips of him."

* Other outstanding IDP prospects include MLB/ILBs Channing Crowder of Florida (a sophomore All-American three years removed from his prep class and thought to be coming out), Lance Mitchell of Oklahoma, Odell Thurman of Georgia, Kirk Morrison of San Diego State, as well as OLBs Michael Boley of Southern Miss and Darryl Blackstock of Virginia (likely to stay in school)... DEs Erasmus (Father of the Humanities) James of Wisconsin and Matthias ("Kiwi"... not to be mistaken for and confused with Chris Kataan's SNL character) Kiwanuka of Boston College... who could be a taller Jason Taylor and leads the Big East in sacks and TFLs, Marcus Spears of LSU, Dan Cody of Oklahoma, Sean Cody of USC, Justin (Friar) Tuck of Notre Dame, Matt Roth of Iowa and aforementioned David Pollack of Georgia... SSs Donte Nicholson of Oklahoma, Darnell Bing of USC, Jamaal Brimmer of UNLV and Ernest Shazor of Michigan, and FS Brodney Pool of Oklahoma... and CBs Antrel Rolle of Miami, Adam "Pac Man" Jones of West Virginia, Justin Miller of Clemson, Carlos Rogers of Auburn (won the Thorpe award for the nation's top DB; also a Nagurski finalist along with DEs James and Pollack), Corey Webster of LSU, Marlin Jackson of Michigan and Bryant McFadden of Florida State... potential first and second round DTs scouts are training their film breakdowns on (we'll have to wait and see who bears up under intense scrutiny) include Rodrique Wright of Texas, Travis Johnson of Florida State, Anttaj Hawthorne of Wisconsin, Mike Patterson of USC and Haloti Ngata of Oregon. Crowder, Thurman, Blackstock, Kiwi, Bing, Jones, Miller, Wright, Tuck and Ngata are all underclassmen still weighing their options, pending word from the NFL Draft advisory panel... they have until mid-January to declare their intent to turn pro and enter the draft. As with most drafts, how many and which underclassmen ultimately decide to throw their rings in the hat could determine whether this shapes up as a good or a great IDP draft. Recommended materials used by this column include the Sporting News, Pro Football Weekly, Mel Kiper and Frank Coyle Scouting Guides, as well as Neural Net Topologies and IDP Search Spaces for Dummies by the author.

IDP Dynasty Strategery

Another ongoing feature, devoted to fostering awareness that IDP leagues are a universe and domain unto themselves, and operate according to a set of rules that can differ in important ways from many we have become familiar with and accustomed to.

Searching For A Signal In A Noisestack

Try and identify important connections... try and make the stats speak, and suggest meaningful implications... white noise morphing into a coherent signal. Think of Jaguars MLB Mike Peterson's second half in '03, when his PPG numbers pointed to a potential top 10 finish in 2004 YTD stats if simply projected over a full season... an implicit and latent promise he subsequently fulfilled. See if you can find a rationale to explain the statistical aberration (in this case it took the first half of the season to become acclimated from Indy WLB to Jacksonville MLB)... this can point the way by giving context and framing the deviation... fleshing out an answer to the question... Is it anomaly or trend?

A recent example from the less important side of the ball was Chad Johnson's breakout second half of '02, which was a harbinger of and precursor to a tectonic shift that would send shockwaves rippling across the elite WR landscape... a signal containing a ghost echo from the future... an early detection system announcing the seeds of his unfolding superstardom. Last season, Rams CB Jerametrius Butler's consistent second half production roared off the page, and culminated in a top 10 finish in 2004. There are hundreds of examples like this (spread out and distributed across ALL positions) each season... for those with a penchant for seeking out and identifying important patterns, recognizing relevant trends and than leveraging this information to make better decisions.

This will be the last installment of ETTG for the 2004 season... thanx for reading, and hope you fare/d well in your playoffs. Have a great New Year, and God speed to the Senior Bowl (late January) and '05 draft (late April), in what is more and more becoming a year-round endeavor and never-ending quest to track the incoming talent and stay on top of the competition. We'll keep our "Ear to the Ground" as we prepare for next year's preseason content, and prepare you for the 2005 season... which is sure to see just as many twists and turns, shocks and surprises as this one.

Props go out to FBG Team IDP staffers Shawn Culcasi (Defensive Upgrades), Aaron Rudnicki (Strong/Weak Starts), John Norton (Eye of the Guru), Doug Drinen (IDP Stats) and freelancer Dave Baker (General Admission) who were a ceaseless fount of IDP ideas before and during the season. It was also encouraging to see the propagation of ideas in the IDP Message Board, and the growth of a community empowered by collaboratively-yielded insights, principles and understanding.

HOT-WIRE YOUR HEAD WITH FBG IDP!