IDP - Ear to the Ground

We are getting to a point in the season where there is a growing rift between the prospects of the haves and the have nots in the NFL. There are some teams with one loss that could easily have several (Jacksonville comes to mind), and others with one win that could easily have a couple wins (such as Kansas City)... in some cases, a few funny bounces can be the difference between 3-1 and 1-3 after just a quarter of the season has elapsed, for most of the teams that have not had a bye yet. Some of the biggest surprises on the upside are Jack Del Rio's cardiac kids in Jacksonville with three last second victories in the first three weeks, the Steelers, despite (or maybe because of) rookie first round QB of the future Ben Roethlisberger having to start two games and play in a third, and "players" coach Tom Coughlin led by the revitalized-looking Kurt Warner... all at 3-1, as well as the Falcons at 4-0, who have augmented the return of a healthy Michael Vick with a nearly complete transformation of their defense (2nd in the NFL against the run, nearly a worst-to-first metamorphosis... DE Patrick Kerney leads the league in sacks)... in large part coaching and scheme-related. Surprises on the downside would have to include a "Freak"-less Tennessee, Kansas City, who may have erred in relying too much on the turnaround effect of Gunther Cunningham on a defensive roster that remains largely unchanged from last season's abominable unit, Washington sporting Hall of Famer Joe Gibbs, a suddenly punchy and reeling Green Bay... all at 1-3, and Tampa Bay's geriatric ward left to scratch their collective heads with wizened hands at 0-4, and getting ready to clear the decks for the likes of Chris Simms and Michael Clayton.

MIAMI - My Dolphin beat reporter was on assignment with Ricky Williams in Asia when he reportedly went underground and disappeared, and the last I heard of him, he signed off... "The horror... the horror"... signed, Colonel Kurtz.

Minnesota - BYE... guys worth keeping an eye on in the next few weeks until the next installment of ETTG include... DE Kenechi Udeze, who might already be the most accomplished pass rusher on the Vikings, and the jury is still out on how much his sack artistry will impact on DT Kevin Williams ability to get to the QB. Two sacks already in three games translates to a DD sack season, not too shabby, especially in leagues that differentiate DL between DE and DT. One place help does not appear to be immediately forthcoming is from DT Chris Hovan, who is following up an abysmal 2 sack, 20 solo '03 season with a shutout in both categories so far this season... the official Hovan Bust Watch is hereby on (EDIT/ADD - it was just learned that Hovan may have been demoted). Rookie second round WLB Dontarrious was missing as many assignments as tackles, and had just been relegated to the pine, when first quarter injuries to E.J. Henderson and Chris Claiborne necessitated his reinsertion into the lineup at MLB. He responded with a game high 13 tackles (9 solos) and 1 FF, and got back into the coaches good graces with a game ball performance, spearheading a narrow win over the Bears... the staff thinks Thomas' instincts might come more into play from the middle. At first it was feared Henderson might be out for up to a month, but now it looks like he could be back sooner... if Thomas plays well in his absence, perhaps he will earn his starting WLB job back upon Henderson's return. FS Brian Russell and SS Corey Chavous were 1-2 in the NFL last year with 9 and 8 INTs, respectively. They are still without a pick, and may not make enough tackles to be difference makers like they were last season if that trend continues. Chavous is a heady player who is acknowledged as one of the top film buffs and students of the game in the league, and he is a more reliable open field tackler than Russell.

New England - The Patriots defender don't always offer consistent tackle production, but they tend to generate INTs, sacks, fumbles and even TDs from the withering pressure applied by Belichick and DC Romeo Crennel's matchup-based defensive game plans, which change from week to week. Gifted All-Pro DE Richard Seymour had prompted some to ask what was wrong with him, but he surfaced in a big way as he rumbled, if not stumbled, to a FR/TD off an assist by Teddy Bruschi during the signature play of the game, which broke the Bills game open. SIX Patriots got sacks, including Seymour and rookie DT Vince Wilfork, and Bruschi added two, as well as the huge FF (and the block) that sprung the TD. OLB Mike Vrabel led the way with 7 solos and 1 sack, and ILB Ted Johnson and DBs Ty Poole and Eugene Wilson pitched in 5 solos each. Keep an eye on OLB Rosie Colvin (3 solos, 1 assist and 1 sack) who is beginning to shake concerns that the hip fracture that sidelined him in '03 might be a chronic condition. New England tied a long-standing record held by multiple teams with eighteen consecutive wins. They will be looking to gain sole possession of the record this week against the lowly and winless Dolphins. If they don't do it, it won't be because they got complacent or took Miami for granted... the players have universally bought into Belichick"What streak?" mantra, and their aggregate even-keeled, level headed pursuit of the Pats third Super Bowl victory in the past four years is an extension of their HC's laser-like focus and intensity.

New Orleans - The Saints got bushwhacked in the desert, again failing to win three games in a row since the '02 season. One team's misfortune is another teams fortune, as the Cards got off the mat with their first win of the season (to new HC Denny Green's credit, they have been very competitive each week and narrowly missed one or two additional wins). Star DE Charles Grant is second in the NFL with 5 sacks (behind the Falcons Patrick Kerney's eye-popping 7 sacks, a blistering clip that would break Strahan's season sack record if he can keep it up), getting a sack for the third time in four games in the losing effort... he could shatter his old season solo tackle numbers. Opposite bookend DE Darren Howard came back strong from his cervical spine injury with a sack as well... prized first rounder Will Smith may have to wait until next season to get the starting gig. MLB Courtney Watson had another strong game with 7 solos and 1 assist (he is leading rookie LBs in solo tackles, and is second overall behind the Bengals good looking second rounder, SS/FS Madieu Williams, who is among the veteran league leaders like the Dolphins MLB Zach Thomas), but New Orleans is giving up an alarming number of yards on the ground... about 175 yards per game before Sunday. Astronomical opponent ground game averages like that are not amassed one yard at a time... a corollary is that Saints DBs are running for their lives in the secondary, as RBs repeatedly penetrate to the second level and are getting past the front seven. SS Jay Bellamy was getting the spiked and surging solo stats the first two weeks, and FS Tebucky Jones has been the main beneficiary in the last two games. It looks like those form tackle drills and wrap up lessons in the offseason could be paying off in a big way... Jones always had the requisite athleticism to be a star, but he was as ragged a tackler as they come.

New York Giants - For those who like the Giants based on the premise that their offense sucks, may need to rethink their position... a rejuvenated Kurt Warner could make it untenable. Giants fans were presumably sweating bullets after losing BOTH starting safeties (first FS Omar Stoutmire followed quickly by SS Shaun Williams, with his second season-ending knee surgery in less than twelve months), however obscure fifth round SS Gibril Wilson from Tennessee is vastly exceeding expectations. He is slightly undersized at a listed 6'0" 197, but he reportedly ran a 4.4 at his pro day, and plays to his speed. INTs have been an Achilles heel of the New York secondary for several years now, and when Wilson jumped a route only to bobble away an apparent pick after a review and subsequent overturned call, he just missed getting his third INT in as many games. He made up for his butterfingers with a team high 10 solos and 2 assists. Wilson and the Bengals Williams are two of the best looking DBs in this rookie class, so far. He was flagged for spearing in week two on a bang-bang play, but arrived with the ball at the moment of impact with impeccable timing, and really hit the WR on the button... Wilson has already demonstrated the potential to be a punishing hitter, and with longtime vet FS Brent Alexander (with the Steelers last year) comfortable in the center fielder role, this could free him up as the season progresses to grow into his role as a roving tackler.

New York Jets - Reports of John Abraham's demise seem to have been greatly exaggerated... he had an exclamation point, statement-type game with 3 solos, 1 assist, 2 sacks and 1 FF. Jonathan Vilma, after an extra week of bye week preparation to take over at MLB for the moment due to Sam Cowart's tweaked knee had only 3 solos but was obviously active and covered a lot of ground with a more impressive 5 assists. Cowart could be out for a month or more, and if Vilma improves as expected, he might not be the incumbent MLB when he gets back. WLB Eric Barton and SLB Victor Hobson have not been lighting it up in the tackle dept, but did contribute big plays with a sack and an INT, respectively. SS Erik Coleman, after a hot start (AFC Defensive Rookie of the Month for September) has come back to earth a little bit, but he has been getting props from the scouts. Like Gibril Wilson, he has been a fifth round pleasant surprise SS in the Big Apple. The Jets defense, after an appallingly poor accounting for themselves last season, have been a surprising contributor and hidden force in the Jets impressive 3-0 start. With a surging, revitalized Curtis Martin (he can play until he is as old as George Blanda if he keeps running the Santa Monica stairs each Summer) among the league rushing leaders and QB Pennington leading the NFL in completion percentage at roughly 75%, if the Jets D can hold opponents under 20 points, they could win a lot of games this year.

Oakland - Maybe all the Raiders should hold out... CB Charles Woodson has been playing like a man possessed this season. He allows a pass completion about as often as Al "Count Chocula" Davis allows a potential stadium lawsuit to go unpursued. The former Heisman winner (the only one in NCAA history awarded to a primarily defensive player) brandished a LB-like 8 solos and 2 assists box score. The Raiders are yet another team among a litany that featured all DBs among their top solo tacklers. FS Ray Buchanon and CB Phillip Buchanon added 6 and 5 solos, and new SS/former Packer reject Marques Anderson (Al Davis has made a living out of rescuing other teams castoffs) had 4 solos. ILB Danny Jackson has consistently produced in the tackle department, and could be a keeper in the Raiders new scheme, which is really a melange of DC Ryan's father Buddy's famous Bears 4-6 defense and ex-mentor Belichick state-of-the-art, cutting edge disguised fronts and mixed coverages. Tyler Brayton has been extremely impressive in the first month, and looks to be taking his game to another level after an auspicious debut in his rookie season. Free agent D-Linemen Ted Washington and Warren Sapp did their best work during the Roosevelt administration (the Teddy Roosevelt, "Walk softly and carry a big stick" iteration), and won't be a primary focus of this column, given its dynasty nature and content.

Philadelphia - Many IDP followers, myself included, projected that the Eagles might get a few less sacks this season given that they were sporting a pair of relatively inexperienced first year starters at CB with Lito Sheppard and Sheldon Brown, and they might be required to play things closer to the vest. Perhaps because they have held up so well, they are actually pacing for a team season sack record... they got sacks from four different players against the beleaguered Bears. DE Jevon Kearse has been a revelation, and when teams shift their blocking schemes to his side this has freed up Derrick Burgess, who has availed himself of the assignment dis by looking his best in a while now that he is relatively injury free. Despite persistent hints that Simoneau's MLB job could be in immanent danger, he continues to maintain, if not quite a stranglehold, better than a feeble grasp on the gig that is being coveted by die-hard Jeremiah Trotter owners. Perhaps the best safety tandem in the NFL flip-flopped in the tackle column. FS Dawkins who played a lot of center field baby-sitting for Sheppard and Brown was unleashed to the tune of 8 solos and 1 assist. SS Michael Lewis who had been on fire and was among the league leaders at his position in tackles cooled off a little from his torrid pace with 3 solos and 1 assist. SLB Dhani Jones and WLB Nate Wayne have been up and down in the stat column, but I am sure their coaches have no complaints about the won-loss record. The Eagles and Seahawks so far appear to be the teams to beat in the NFC.

Pittsburgh - ESPN Prime Time fans got a glimpse of Troy Polamalu's athleticism that led the Steelers to trade up in the first round to secure his services last year, with a jaw dropping play in which he intercepted a ball over his head in which he was running away from the QB, got turned back quickly towards the end zone, weaved his way through about half a dozen Bengals (some who got a couple shots at tackling him) before running through and over QB Carson Palmer with authority. The Samoan SS, he of the big hair, bigger expectations, 4.3 40 and 40"+ vertical, absolutely would not be denied in his quest for the end zone. Ironically, it decisively ended his former USC roommate Palmer's bid for a comeback victory. Kendrell Bell's ILB replacement Larry Foote continues to shine with 9 solos, 2 assists, 1 sack and 1 FF. Other ILB James Farrior had an uncharacteristic 3 solos... the top of the Steeler solo tackle column, like so many teams, was liberally sprinkled with DBs... FS Chris Hope had 6 solos, with the CBs Chad Scott and Deshea Townsend pitching in 6 and 5 solos, respectively. Perhaps with so many spread offenses, the more consistently enforced 5 yard rule in the defensive backfield (not necessarily a lot more penalties thrown, but the perceived threat seems to be having the desired impact), QB completion percentages seeming to be on the up in some cases, perhaps a disproportionate number of DB tackles will be a trend we will see more of as the season unfolds. An interesting hypothesis to test, anyway, and one we will informally, if not rigorously, return to during the year. Quant feedback in this regard would be mucho appreciated.

San Diego - Randall Godfrey was an outstanding MLB at times in prior stints with the Cowboys and Titans, but he looked a little spent and used up with Seattle last season. After that one year limited engagement for the Seahawks, he was somewhat of an afterthought of many IDP players and probably under the radar in some leagues. After a rough start with an early concussion, he has looked move active and confident of late, chipping in with 9 solos. This tied him with FS Jerry Wilson, a revelation to many, first brought to my attention in John Norton's EOTG column. With their Swiss cheese-like front seven (ILB Donnie Edwards is a stud) and a mostly vapid and inane offensive scheme when LT II isn't rolling, Wilson could be among the league leaders in solo tackles... at any position. SS Terrence Kiel continues to shine in the stat column, adding a workmanlike 5 solos. Don't look now, but the Chargers are a surprising 2-2, tied for second place in their division and only one game out of first place.

San Francisco - assessed a winless penalty, docked coverage for one report.

Seattle - BYE... with a full report to follow next time. Suffice it to say that this weeks battle royale between the probable NFC West contenders (a win by the Seahawks leaves them still undefeated to the Rams three losses; a Ram victory would mean just a one game gap in the loss column, with another game to go in St. Louis) should be a good one, and the vaunted aerial attack of Mike Martz and Marc Bulger should be a supreme test of how far along the young secondary is, including second year CB Marcus Trufant and FS Ken Hamlin, and rookie SS Michael Boulware. HC Mike Holmgren drafted them no doubt with one eye to the future and one eye keenly fixed on his pass happy divisional rivals. When you have a young, inexperienced secondary, no matter how talented, it can be a tremendous boon to have a strong edge rushing presence so the opposing QB has to release the ball before timing routes have fully developed, and to generate a powerful pocket collapsing surge to make it hard for the QB to set his feet and step up into the pocket.

St. Louis - WLB Pisa Tinoisamoa had a monster game, leading the Rams with 8 solos, 4 assists and a half sack and is the subject of this weeks In-depth Profile. If he continues he should fulfill his potential as one of the top young LBs in the game today. The scary thing (to opponents, not Ram fans) is that he could get a lot better, and has the determined nature and constitutional makeup to do just that. Just one year removed from his rookie season, he is already a leader on a defense that features future Hall of Famer Aeneas Williams and positional super stars DE Leonard Little and SS Adam Archuleta. Speaking of Little, he is showing signs of life after an inexplicably (even when accounting for Wistrom's departure) quiet start... he had a LB-like 6 solos and got his second sack in as many weeks, helping stop a two game skid for the team and right the ship back to a 2-2 record after a devastating OT loss to the Saints the prior week. Little also added a FR, noteworthy as it was the Rams first turnover in 3+ games, after leading the NFL in that stat last season. CB Jerametrius Butler didn't put up his typical Cover Two tackle numbers, but he did contribute an INT for their second turnover of the season. The top of the Rams tackle leader column is heavily populated with DBs, probably a reflection of their heavy D-Line rotation and the LB injuries that have incurred. SLB Tommy Polley seemed to play with more intensity and authority, and chalked up a sack and a FF... he'll give the defense a lift if he proves capable of sustaining that momentum.

Tampa Bay - The Bucs are also assessed a penalty for being winless, and further for having too many old dudes on their team... coverage to resume with their first win... wait, that could be a while... make that the next installment.

Tennessee - The Titans really seem to miss Jevon Kearse, who before the past few injury-plagued seasons had one of the most impressive career starts for an NFL DE... ever. When they decided to patch the hole left from DT Robaire Smith defection to the Texans by sliding Kevin Carter over from DE, there were whispers that this might actually make the Titans weaker at two positions instead of just one. DEs Carlos Hall and twin second rounders Antwan Odom and Travis LaBoy have not stepped up yet... it could be a long season if they don't soon. HC Fisher and offensive stalwarts Steve "Gametime Decision" McNair and WR Derrick Mason are shocked to find themselves sitting on an unaccustomed 1-3 record, and are already in a bit of a hole playing in the same division as the 3-1 Colts and Jaguars. WLB Keith Bullock was held to 2 solos, and the myriad injuries on the defensive side of the ball may be taking their toll... a troubling development is that opponents appear to be having success game planning and scheming around him. Third year SS Tank Williams is taking his game to a new level, in part due to being healthy this season after being held in check by a chronic, debilitating shoulder injury last season. He is tracking for nearly 90 solo tackles, which would smash his previous season highs by 70-80%.

Washington - Future All-Pro FS Sean Taylor wasted no time showing why he was one of the highest graded safeties in the history of the draft scouting process, celebrating his first start by leading the team in tackles... the good news was muted by the disappointing loss to the Browns, dropping their record to an un-Gibbs-like 1-3. His running mate SS Matt Bowen came back from some injury concerns and tacked on 4 solos and an assist, but has slowed down on his sack pace considerably. After reports that Mike Barrow might attempt to return, he looks no closer and is in the midst of swirling rumors that his chronic knee problems may preclude him from coming back altogether, make him a scratch for the season, and could spell impending retirement... making MLB afterthought Antonio Pierce a potential waiver wire steal. SLB Marcus Washington had an OK boxscore, but nothing like the 10+ tackle outburst of a few weeks ago... his 4 solos is more on par with his capabilities based on past expectations with the Colts. WLB Lavar Arrington was unable to go, and could be out for a few more weeks. It is WAY, WAY, WAY too early to to judge the relative merits of the Champ Bailey - Clinton Portis superstar blockbuster trade... that is a few seasons away. But by one measure (DEN is 3-1, WAS a mirror opposite 1-3), the Broncos trade engineer Skeletor has to be pleased with the results so far.

Defensive Rookie of the Year Watch

(All stats are cumulative running totals through the first four weeks)

Courtney Watson (MLB - NO)... 22 solos, 7 assists, 1 sack
DJ Williams (WLB - DEN)... 17 solos, 4 assists and 1 sack
Jonathan Vilma (MLB - NYJ)... 6 solos and 6 assists
Sean Taylor (FS - WAS)... 7 solos and 5 assist
Kenechi Udeze (DE - MIN)... 4 solos, 1 assist and 1 sack
Madieu Williams (SS/FS)... 30 solos and 4 assists
Daryl Smith (SLB - JAX)... 12 solos, 2 assists and 1 INT
Dontarrious Thomas (WLB - MIN)... 15 solos, 8 assists, 1 FF
Gibril Wilson (SS - NYG)... 18 solos, 4 assists and 2 INTs
Michael Boulware (SS - SEA)... 5 solos and 2 INT
Teddy Lehman (SLB - DET)... 11 solos, 4 assists and 1 FF
Will Smith (DE - NO)... 7 solos, 1 assist, 1 sack and 1 FF

Standing on the Verge (of Gettin It)...

Dunta Robinson (CB - HOU)
Karlos Dansby (SLB - ARI)
Glenn Earl (SS - HOU)
Erik Coleman (SS - NYJ)
Jason Babin (OLB - HOU)
Darnell Dockett (DT - ARI)
Tommie Harris (DT - CHI)
Chris Gamble (CB - CAR)
Caleb Miller (MLB - CIN)
Tank Johnson (DT - CHI)
Landon Johnson (WLB - CIN)
Vince Wilfork (DT - NE)
Brandon Chillar (SLB - STL)
Antwan Odom (DE - TEN)
Junior Siavii (DT - KC)

In-depth Profile

From the preseason Sleepers/Busts article... 5-0 was all over the field in the Sunday night special against the 49ers. What is not surprising is how well he is playing, given last season's foreshadowing of his world class athleticism and potential greatness, but that he is able to play at all on a separated shoulder suffered week one...

Pisa Tinoisamoa (6'1" 235)... "A San Diego prep legend, the only high school football player in regional history to win All-CIF honors on offense AND defense (impressive when taking into account probable future Hall of Famers Marcus Allen and Junior Seau are among the native bred talent). Running with the wrong crowd in high school led to a conviction for taking part in a fight while on probation, landing him a detention stint, and causing Division I interest and scholarship offers to stop cold, understandably. Hawaii head coach (and former Falcons HC) June Jones took a chance on his prodigious athleticism, and by all accounts Tino embraced the opportunity to simultaneously flash his futuristic array of skills and demonstrate that he had turned his life around. Despite playing at a safety-like 210-215 in college, he impressed combine scouts by bulking up to 230 and still managing to clock by far the fastest 10 yard dash split and cone drill times among LB prospects... in fact, they were comparable to the top CB times in the '03 draft. More than one scout said he looked like the best player on the field at the Senior Bowl and the week of practices leading up to it. It would have been hard to have a more auspicious debut than his steady and at times spectacular production during his inaugural season. The final tally on his seasonal stat log showed 80 tackles (67 solos & 13 assists), 2 sacks, 3 INTs & 4 FFs (he is a devastating striker who brings the pain via well schooled form, disciplined wrap up technique and blunt force trauma). Only a handful of veteran LBs had as many INTs OR FFs. 5-0 was the only player in the NFL last year to show up so high in BOTH stat leader board columns. He couples rare speed, quickness, power, instincts and intensity and is the whole package. Already the Ram's top LB, he has the kind of work ethic to get better... a LOT better. When he is covered up and sees the play unfold, he has the game to be dominant. One of the most promising young playmaking LBs and ascendant talents in the NFL... a Samoan Derrick Brooks in his prime."

IDP Dynasty Tip of the Week

Cover Two CBs... players are hardware, defensive systems and schemes are software... if genes are like the bodies software for generating certain forms and shapes, systems and schemes have tangible consequences and outcomes, too. The important thing to remember is that this particular type of coverage scheme leads to more consistent solo tackle numbers for the CBs, as they defend a zone instead of playing man-on-man, and this positions them for more run support tackles vis-à-vis their peers.

Some other characteristics are that it puts the safeties in a two deep zone, requires a speedy MLB who can cover the soft spot in the TE seam route down the middle, and tends to feature somewhat undersized but very quick in pursuit defenders in the front seven that can swarm to the ball. LB blitzing is eschewed, with pressure preferably applied by the D-Line, and extra attention is given to not give up the big play, but to instead keep plays in front of the defense, forcing long drives and making turnovers, punts and field goals more likely. The first coach I am aware of that developed the Cover Two principles was Tony Dungy in his HC stint at Tampa Bay (possibly earlier while a DC under Dennis Green with the Vikings)... from there the lineage can be traced to Dungy with the Colts, former Bucs OC and current Jets HC Herm Edwards (now running a hybrid defense under new DC and former Ravens DB coach Donnie Edwards), as well as former Rams DC Lovie Smith, now HC of the Bears, whose influence could be seen in St. Louis leading the NFL in turnovers last season, yet failing to get their first two until game four Sunday night against San Francisco.

This system has already made stars of the Bucs Ronde Barber and the Colts Nick Harper... worth keeping a look out for are the Rams Jeremetrius Butler and Indy's Donald Strickland.

HOT ROD YOUR HEAD WITH FBG IDP!