IDP - Ear to the Ground

"And hopes that were high in the heat of September, can wilt and die in the chill of November... November can be cold and gray... November can be surly, with bitter rain upon the world and winter coming early." - NFL Films (The Power and the Glory CD)

"I think the league is getting what it intended with the rule... It's becoming basketball on grass." - Brian Billick (BAL HC), in reference to the fateful decision in the offseason by the competition committee to make the enforcement of illegal contact penalties a "point of emphasis" for officials, in response to concerns that DBs from teams like New England (most notably) were being given free reign to mug WRs downfield.

Week 9...

Arizona - The Cards spoiled any momentum they had acquired from the Seahawks upset the week before by stumbling badly against the Bills (who it has been noted here before have played better than their record indicates... well maybe not Bledsoe). With or without HC Denny Green's proven talents, and they are demonstrable and multifaceted, Arizona has been appallingly bad on the road the past few seasons and this team trend has continued in 2004. SS Adrian Wilson was second on the team in tackles against Buffalo and put up a MLB-like 8 solos and 2 assists. He is having a career year and emerging as one of the top young SS in the game. Wilson's timing couldn't possibly better as he is in a contract year... don't be surprised if the Cards lock him up to a long-term contract before he becomes a free agent in the offseason and attracts break-the-bank contract offers. DT prodigy Darnell Dockett tied for third in solos with 3... he is already becoming a double team magnet, and is probably the Arizona D-Lineman opposing OCs fear and scheme around the most. Green has a track record of taking chances on players with character questions and off the field issues. This was spectacularly successful in the instance of Randy Moss... somewhat less so in the case of the bipolar bust Dimitrius Underwood (first round DE with the Vikings)... there could be a lot of John Randle in Dockett. Highly regarded SLB Karlos Dansby had only 2 solos but was active with 5 combined tackles. He is a threat to make the big play on any given Sunday (sack, FF & INT), and has the feet and hands one would associate with a player that was a top 30 nationally scouted prep WR before being converted first to S (after he blew up), than (after he blew up some more) OLB while at Auburn. The Cardinals coaching staff is said to be pleased with former Bronco DE Bertrand Berry's effort, intensity and professionalism. He has been hit and miss with the solo tackles, but does have 4 sacks already despite having his bye out of the way and missing a game with an injury.

Atlanta - Two weeks in the penalty box for the Chiefs 8 TD fiasco since the last report. Bryan Scott, one of the most highly touted young SSs leading into the season (too well known to be a sleeper among the FBG IDP cognoscenti, but more under the radar than some veterans who haven't done as well this season), has generally lived up to the hype. MLB-of-the-future Demorrio Williams was coming off a 9 solo game the week before, but MLB-of-the-present Chris Draft was back from an injury... Draft only got one more solo than Williams, and the present could be seguing into the future sooner rather than later. ESPN draft hondo called Demorrio maybe the best open field tackler in the entire '04 draft, and given what a natural he has looked like in his limited stint so far, it would seem to be just a matter of time before he finds himself in the starting lineup alongside Brooking... he has the kind of talent to spearhead and be the nucleus of HC Mora and DC Donatell's attacking defense. Prized rookie CB DeAngelo Hall (second DB in the draft at 1.08 after the Redskins FS Sean Taylor, one of the highest drafted safeties in NFL history) is returning strong from a broken hip injury suffered in the preseason... he had 4 solos. The Falcons defeated the Broncos handily in a strange looking boxscore in which Denver QB Jake Plummer passed for a yard shy of 500 yards... though with 3 INTs. CB Kevin Mathis is turning in a career season... he is second among NFL CBs with 41 solo tackles, has 2 INTs and has converted both of them into defensive TDs. So as to not run over the same ground too much, it can be mentioned in passing that DE Patrick Kerney, after a blisteringly hot sack clip in the initial month of the season, has crashed back to Earth and really seems to be missing coveted free agent interior rushing presence, DT Rod Coleman, who is still recuperating from a car accident a few weeks ago.

Baltimore - The OTHER Lewis, RB Jamal is back after a two week unpaid vacation... all in all, a far better prospect for him and the team than the prospective decade long fed sponsored one he was staring at prior to copping a plea. The Ravens emerged from the suspension within striking range for the divisional lead, two games behind the Steelers, who have been led by the surprisingly capable Ben Roethlisberger Only Baltimore and (surprisingly) San Diego have not allowed a run of 20 yards yet this season. DE phenom Terrell Suggs has a half dozen multi-sack games in his brief pro career (a second year player who entered the '03 draft as an underclassman)... the team is undefeated in those games... the huge percentage of teams that lose when they are -2 in the turnover battle is well documented. Suggs has 19 sacks in less than 1 1/2 season/s, and will no doubt soon be joining elite company in having one of the shortest fast-tracks to 20 sacks in NFL history.

Buffalo - A sign of how austere the conditions can be in Ralph Wilson Stadium during the Fall is that, strangely... it was the first turnover-free game EVER held there in the 31 years since it has opened. Though he is nearly as old as ex-MLB great Willie Lanier, London Fletcher is that rare IDP geezer that is paying dividends faster than the grains of sand are running out of Father Time's clock. The former Ram MLB that got away (St. Louis couldn't afford to sign both star DE Leonard Little and Fletcher the year they both became free agents) had 6 solos but 14 combo tackles against the hapless Cards. He has been positively smokin this season, and playing at as high a level as any IDP in the game... he has already had two 9 tackle games and one 10 tackle effort, as well as a 21 tackle outburst in the week 5 narrow loss to the Jets. Lawyer Milloy appears to be rounding into game shape... he had only 3 solos but 10 combo tackles.

Carolina - The Panthers have been one of the biggest disappointments in the real football world in terms of their team record, but also in an IDP sense. Integral components of last seasons Super Bowl defense have been underwhelming... "leading" the way is DE Mike Rucker (and to a lesser extent bookend DE Julius Peppers) and SS Mike Minter. Stud DT Kris Jenkins is already done for the year after being shelved on IR... his shoulder was unresponsive to being pounded on by 350 lb dudes for three hours. One of the few bright spots in a dismal Super Bowl hangover (blackout?) season, MLB Dan Morgan, has reverted back to form with a concussion before the midway point of the season. He was cruising to a career season (never missed LESS than five games in his 3+ seasons), but as of writing it was not known if he would be able to go by game time. Given his checkered medical history, and the abysmal state of the team, a conservative stance might be recommended to give the MLB's noggin (which is as fragile as a hummingbird egg) a breather, and let him live to fight another day. Even if the word is that he starts, he would have to be considered a risky play this week... he could get pulled at a moments notice if he overexerts himself getting his shoulder pads on. There have been whispers that the coaching staff has been disappointed with the run support (or lack thereof) of CBs Ricky Manning and Chris Gamble. Maybe the message was heeded, as Gamble had 11 solos, which was more than the number of solos in his previous month's worth of games... COMBINED. A not-so-hidden signal pointing to what a down season this has been for the OTHER expansion cats... they are 0-3 at home... and another... maybe the fact that they won so many games by a narrow margin in '03 was an early warning sign that they may not have been quite as good as appeared on the surface. Certainly they had a lot of turnover (decimated?) at the O-Line position in the offseason, and have been much harder this season by injuries to key personnel, like star WR Steve Smith.

Cincinnati - Since replacing SS Rogers Beckett in the Bengals deep patrol, the Bengals K. Kaesviharn (just like it sounds) has been putting up numbers that have to get your attention. With serial concussion victim Beckett's future with the club as foggy as his post-blow cogno-sphere, he is worth keeping a lookout for. FS Herring has played well when healthy... in other words, a couple times so far this season. He has already had a couple lower leg injuries, after missing last season with the Rams due to a broken arm suffered in training camp. Whichever rookie shakes out of the MLB mix between Caleb Miller and Landon Johnson could be a force... so far they have both struggled to stay healthy long enough to string together two consecutive plays, let alone quarters, halves or games. Rookie phenom without a position, SS/FS/CB Madieu Williams has been relegated to nickel back detail of late, but he has the look of a star in the making. He only made two plays all game, but scored three ways... a solo tackle... and an INT returned for a TD.

Cleveland - BYE

Dallas - Whatever Parcells is saying, chances are it involves heavy use of monosyllables. Some of the Cowboys faithful thought they had turned the corner last season after a few clunkers, when the Big Tuna got them headed in the right direction and into the playoffs. FS Roy Williams is having somewhat of a bounce back year in terms of tackles (top 5 among NFL safeties in solos), but continues to have his playmaking chances shackled to his center fielder in coverage role. SS Ed Reed (BAL) and FS Sean Taylor (WAS) have elite ball skills, possess Neo-like body control and have greater air supremacy than the Iraqi Air Force... yet Williams could be the preeminent run stuffing SS of his generation (harking back to Ronnie Lott of another era), if Dallas could only turn him loose. That could prove difficult with Terrence Newman struggling and exhibiting signs of shaken confidence... he does not look like the same player who got out of the gate very strong last season, and appears to have regressed. Things aren't going to get any easier with star WR Chad Johnson on deck... despite Bengals QB Carson Palmer's growing pains, he is close to the pace he set last season as one of the top WRs in the AFC last season. Opposite Newman are CBs forced into action due to injuries and underperformance that might not have been on the field in dime defense to start the season.

Indianapolis - Two weeks in the penalty box for the Colts, who gave up a whopping 590 yards to the Chiefs... third highest combined yardage in NFL history lived up to the Guns of Navarone shoot-out billing... there were more bombs than the directors cut of Die Hard III. While they didn't give up an NFL record 8 rushing TDs like the Falcons the week before, nevertheless they lost 45-35. LB Gilbert Gardner saw increased playing time, for those still on the Colts WLB-watch, though Cato June has seemed to be playing with increasing confidence each week, "leading" the way (:backhandedcompliment:) with 9 solos. FS/SS Bob Sanders looks like he shook the rust off pretty fast, considering he was playing in game conditions for one of the first times in about a year. He rang up a workmanlike 8 solos and 1 assist in part-time duty, seeing more time when SS Mike Doss went down... again in this short season, nearly (but not yet) half over. Sanders could be the Colts best defender by Christmas... he is that good and special of a talent, and may ultimately have more say about the ultimate fate of the Colts playoff hopes (given that they are prone to losing 45-35 shootouts to the Chiefs) than would have seemed possible even just a few weeks ago for a 5'8" rookie SS coming off a broken foot and the longest holdout of his rookie class. Pro football fans in general and fans of hustle and hard-nosed hitting specifically are about to find out what Iowa Hawkeye and Big Ten fans have known for the past few seasons... this guy is a Ray Lewis mini-me... a pocket Mike Singletary who runs a 4.3 and has a 41"+ vertical. The "Hitman" doesn't back down from anybody, and led his team in FFs in '03, despite routinely giving up over half a foot and 50 lbs to TEs. 35 points given up might be a baseball score compared to what the Colts will give up if they continue to get hammered by injuries to the secondary... safeties Doss and FS Idrees Bashir have missed substantial time, CBs Joseph Jefferson and Nick Harper are hurt (though Harper has put up IDP stats at a high level when healthy for the past season and a half), and Donald Strickland is already on IR.

Jacksonville - The Cardiac Cats are bringing in more bodies to plug into the gaping hole they have at the DE position than extras were used in the shooting of the battle sequences for The Longest Day. Former backup SLB Greg Favors and Steeler rush-backer castoff Jason Gildon are the latest attempts to hold the edge together with baling wire and duct tape, but you can be sure that there will be a cast of thousands auditioning for the gig in coming weeks. DTs are usually not worth bothering with, but in leagues that distinguish between DEs and DTs, Marcus Stroud and John Henderson are elite talents... both possibly top 3 guys that happen to be on the same team. MLB Mike Peterson enters the bye week tied for second in the NFL in solo tackles (with Dan Morgan, who is probably looking at a different kind of bye this week) and is third in combo tackles after Zach Thomas and London Fletcher. It is now safe to say that the MLB conversion (he began his NFL career as the Colts WLB) is taking hold. WLB Akin Ayodele is also in the midst of a solid campaign. Rookie SLB Daryl Smith has looked phenomenal at times, and the Jaguar coaching staff is excited about his potential, but his boxscore stat lines have been as uneven as bassist Roger Waters post-Pink Floyd solo work. CB Rashean Mathis full potential (in an IDP scoring sense) are being kept in check by his position and Jacksonville's scheme... he is a superb athlete like Bryan Scott who could go from CB detail to one of the top safeties in the NFL in a heartbeat. SS Donavin Darius helped pace the team in solos along with Peterson, but there is a consensus among league insiders that he will be traded, or more likely, cut loose in the offseason rather than burn the franchise tag on him three seasons in a row.

Kansas City - The Chiefs are at a critical juncture in their season, which finds them attempting to counter the bad juju amassed from their ill-fated 1-4 start with two of the most dominant offensive performances of the season, BY ANY TEAM, strung together in consecutive weeks. They have overcome one of the most nondescript WR assemblages in the league with a dominant O-Line... OG Brian Waters was the first guard ever to win league Offensive Player of the Week honors, and one of only a handful of linemen to receive the award since its inception. The most important positional "battle" (ie - injury intrigue and machinations) for the Chiefs, between MLBs Monty Beisel and Kawika Mitchell, has been thoroughly vetted by EOTG. SS Greg Wesley put up a nice half dozen solos plus INT, but his YTD total have seen a steep decline vis-à-vis this time last year.

Defensive Rookie of the Year Watch

(All Stats YTD)

DJ Williams (WLB - DEN)... 39 solos, 12 assists, 1 sack
Jonathan Vilma (MLB/ILB - NYJ)... 27 solos, 11 assists, 1.5 sacks, 1 INT
Gibril Wilson (SS - NYG)... 33 solos, 7 assists, 2 sack, 3 INTs
Teddy Lehman (SLB - DET)... 41 solos, 6 assists, 1 FF
Erik Coleman (SS - NYJ)... 29 solos, 13 assists, 2 INTs
Sean Taylor (FS - WAS)... 19 solos, 5 assists, 1 sack, 1 INT
Daryl Smith (SLB - JAX)... 24 solos, 5 assists, 1 INT
Dunta Robinson (CB - HOU)... 24 solos, 8 assists, 3 INTs
Kenechi Udeze (DE - MIN)... 14 solos, 3 assist, 3 sack
Michael Boulware (SS - SEA)... 16 solos, 6 assists, 3 INTs, 1 FF
Darnell Dockett (DT - ARI)... 19 solos, 1 sack, 1 FF
Caleb Miller (MLB - CIN)... 17 solos, 7 assists
Standing on the Verge (of Gettin It...)

Madieu Williams (CB/S - CIN)
Demorrio Williams (MLB - ATL)
Karlos Dansby (SLB - ARI)
Chris Gamble (CB - CAR)
Courtney Watson (MLB - NO)
Dontarrious Thomas (WLB - MIN)
Will Smith (DE - NO)
Vince Wilfork (DT - NE)
Jason Babin (OLB - HOU)
Glenn Earl (SS - HOU)
Tommie Harris (DT - CHI)
Landon Johnson (WLB - CIN)
Antwan Odom (DE - TEN)
Tank Johnson (DT - CHI)
Brandon Chillar (SLB - StL)
Junior Siavii (DT - KC)

In-Depth Profile

From the preseason... Sleepers/Busts article... looking like a good call so far. Kiel is the #6 DB YTD in FBGs scoring system. Interestingly, Cover Two CBs Nick Harper and Jerametrius Butler are both in the top 5 DBs YTD. Cover Two CBs were the subject of the IDP Dynasty Tip of the Week during the week 5 content...

Terrence Kiel, SS (5'11" 207)... "His rookie year didn't get off to a good start last offseason with an attempted carjacking in which he was shot multiple times. Fully recovered now, and with a year in the system, he could be the one jacking up WRs who venture across the middle this season. An extremely productive tackler at Texas A & M, the second rounder flashed enough ability last season to suggest he could have the goods to be a force in run support. This up 'n coming SS is somewhat overshadowed in a secondary that sports consecutive first rounders selected in the '02 and '03 drafts, the CB tandem of Quentin Jammer and fellow-Aggie Sammy (Candy Man) Davis. He went in the same round of the draft as other potentially elite NFL safeties Ken Hamlin (SEA), Mike Doss (IND) and Bryan Scott (ATL), and he has a chance to be similarly productive... if so, he will far surpass his ADP value. It doesn't hurt that San Diego could have one of the most anemic offenses in the league after LT II, and opponents could be playing with a substantial lead early and often in 2004, therefor grinding the clock with a disproportionate amount of runs in fourth quarter/s. Coupled with one of the worst front sevens in the league (with the exception of the ageless and venerable Donnie Edwards), this could be a recipe for a tackle engine."

IDP Dynasty Tip of the Week

Know Your IDP Positions...

The definitive work by resident IDP guru John Norton can be found in the preseason... content... updated with new players but timeless in the sense that positional constraints often eclipse individual talent (though certainly their are exceptions)... a certain musical note is the same though it may be embodied in different pianos. The letter T is the same even though it may be rendered in an antique Book of Kells-like manner or a futuristic Rollerball-type font.

Most of the readers of the column will be familiar with the idea that DEs are more valuable than DTs, MLBs over SLBs, and SSs over CBs. Beyond this are finer-grained distinctions such as the 4-3 DE or 3-4 DE (same with OLB)... with the wacky passing attack numbers and teams spraying the ball around like they get paid by the completion, the DB distinctions are getting a little blurred. Some FSs like Tebucky Jones (NO) and Lamont Thompson (TEN) are putting up consistent LB/SS-type numbers... ditto for some of the aforementioned Cover Two CBs.

Positional analysis must by necessity be overlaid by the YTD and PPG stats... what is actually happening will always be more than an adjunct to what the "book" says. But the body of knowledge that exists about IDP positions extends back and has been borne out across many seasons, so it may be augmented and informed by other streams of knowledge, but it is rarely superseded and should never be ignored.

HOT-WIRE YOUR HEAD WITH FBG IDP!